Month: May 2016

After back to back days of misery for many in the Houston area once again, we *may* finally have a quieter day (or more) to exhale here. Today looks drier and calmer. Unfortunately, we still have residual problems to discuss and more storms down the road. But for now, let’s revel in the goodness of dry weather. Read on for the latest. Read More…

I guess maybe this is round 3? 4? I’ve lost count. Either way, another slow moving, training area of heavy 1-2″ per hour rainfall continues north and west of Houston this afternoon. The radar as of 4 PM looks like this:

4 PM radar shows heavy rain and thunderstorms sliding south and east into Houston (GR Level 3).

4 PM radar shows heavy rain and thunderstorms sliding south and east into Houston (GR Level 3).

For most of the afternoon, this has been slow to move. While it’s still crawling, the heaviest rainfall is actually showing signs of progress south and east. For those of you looking to get a jump start on getting out of town for Memorial Day Weekend, I suggest you hang tight. Heavy rain is arriving in Downtown Houston as I write this, and areas south and east of the city, largely spared this week, will see heavy rain and thunder as well this evening.

Up north, it’s a disaster in spots, with another 3-6″ falling in the Spring Creek Basin, including The Woodlands and surrounding areas. This has forced Spring Creek to near or above record levels at both FM 2978 and Highway 249, higher than Tax Day by one foot or more.

Afternoon rainfall through 4 PM. (Harris County Flood Control)

Afternoon rainfall through 4 PM. (Harris County Flood Control)

The rain should begin to taper off through early evening up that way thankfully. Heavy rains will march south and east, and if the latest HRRR model is to be believed, they’ll be offshore by late evening. Fingers crossed.

HRRR model forecast through evening shows rain finally, mercifully pushing offshore and ending. (Weather Bell)

HRRR model forecast through evening shows rain finally, mercifully pushing offshore and ending. (Weather Bell)

We’ll have an update on the rest of the weekend in the morning (I’ll be active on Twitter through evening), but I think it can only get better from here. Be safe, be smart, never drive through flooded roadways, and take your time if you absolutely have to travel this evening around Southeast Texas.

Posted: 4:10 PM Friday by Matt Lanza

Most of the Houston area has remained shower-free this morning, but we’re becoming concerned about a boundary between warmer (to the south) and cooler air masses that has set up a bit to the north of Interstate 10 today. Its position at 11:45am CT is shown below.

Approximate position of boundary at 11:45am CT. (Intellicast)

Approximate position of boundary at 11:45am CT. (Intellicast)

We’ve seen storms form north of this boundary today, including over already hard-hit areas of southwestern Montgomery County, and this should continue. That’s because there’s an ample flow of moisture and warmth coming from the south-southwest which is helping to feed storm development. As the day progresses we could see this boundary sag further south, bringing some heavier storms into the central Houston metropolitan area.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but even a few more inches of rain across northern Harris, southern Montgomery, Waller and Grimes county would prove very troubling. And the prospect of heavier rains moving southward into the central Harris County area later this afternoon to start off the Memorial Day weekend isn’t particularly appealing either. We’ll be keeping a close eye on developments for you.

Posted by Eric Berger at 11:55am CT on Friday

We’re nearing the end of an incredible rain event over the northwest and northern Houston metro area. A final line of major storms moved through the northern half of the metro area this morning, a little before sunrise, and now it seems like the organized activity is finally ramping down. Here’s a look at rainfall totals between 5am CT Thursday, and 5am CT Friday:

24-hour rain accumulations. (NOAA)

24-hour rain accumulations. (NOAA)

Read More…

Just an incredible evening of heavy rain north and northwest of the city of Houston, with 6 to 8 inches of rain falling across much of western Montgomery County, and 8 to 14 inches coming down over an area from Brenham to Montgomery. Many roads are impassable, including some locations of Highway 290 northwest of Harris County.

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Emergency for Washington and northern Austin Counties tonight due to extremely heavy rains in those areas. This is the highest level of flood warning. Multiple high water rescues have occurred in these areas.

Satellite estimates of rainfall between 10am and 10pm CT on Thursday. (NOAA)

Satellite estimates of rainfall between 10am and 10pm CT on Thursday. (NOAA)

 

Unfortunately storms are continuing to develop along a west-to-east boundary north of Interstate 10 tonight, and I think we’ll see continued development of storms for the next few hours. A flash flood warning is in effect for pretty much all of the northern half of the Houston metro area until at least 2:45am CT. Some homes along Spring Creek, in southern Montgomery and northern Harris County, have already flooded as the creek has risen several feet out of its banks.

The forecast is far from clear, but I think we’ll see additional storms move in from west during the overnight hours, with more widespread showers moving into the central and southern Houston metro area by, or around sunrise on Friday morning. I’m hopeful the heaviest rains will exist the region by mid-morning, or noon at the latest, but the entire Houston metro is under a flash flood watch through at least 7pm CT on Friday.

Posted by Eric Berger at 11:05pm CT on Thursday