Houston has had a pretty dull fall, with warmer than normal temperatures, little rainfall, and almost no severe weather. But now things appear to be getting a little more interesting, with a wet weekend on tap, and significantly colder weather likely next week.
After the region set record high temperatures on Tuesday (84 degrees, breaking a record from 2006), a cold front finally moved through last night. Temperatures this morning have fallen to around 60 degrees for most of the area, but the dewpoint has fallen off a cliff—the relative humidity this time on Tuesday was 100 percent, this morning it is 39 percent. Under mostly sunny skies temperatures today should rise to nearly 70 degrees.
After lows start off in the low 40s north of Houston, and in the mid-40s for central parts of the city, we’ll have another spectacular day with a high near 70 degrees under fully sunny skies.
Friday will start off just a few degrees warmer than Thursday. But winds should pick up from offshore, returning moisture and setting the stage for what should be a wet, cool and gray weekend. Some rain is possible on Friday and Friday night, although it should be of the light to moderate variety. Highs will be near 70 degrees.
This rainfall accumulation forecast from NOAA seems a little too aggressive for me. (Weather Bell)
Yes, Houston set a record high temperature for today, with the mercury hitting 84 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. And yes, a cold front is now working its way into Houston that will provide some relief from the heat and humidity for the rest of this week. But that is not what I’m talking about. For this post I am referring to actual winter, as in…
Prepare yourself for the the memes, because they’re coming along with what appears to be this season’s first real Arctic front in about eight or nine days. Houston might even record its first freeze of the season, but there remains a fair about of uncertainty regarding that.
First freeze, when?
Let’s start with a bit of climatology. The following graphic shows when, historically, Houston can typically expect to record their first 32-degree or lower temperature of the season.
Houston first freeze climatology. (Brian Brettschneider)
Good morning. Some coastal and inland counties are seeing dense fog this morning, which should lift by around 8 or 9 am. A dense fog advisory is in effect from the National Weather Service. Cooler weather is ahead.
This morning’s fog is due to Monday’s brief cool front moving back in from the Gulf of Mexico, bringing, warm, muggy air with it. Fortunately another, stronger front is now moving toward the greater Houston area, and it should push through sometime this evening. Before the front arrives there’s a chance of scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. We should see highs in the upper 70s today under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Drier air from the front is unlikely before sunset.
Wednesday and Thursday
Get ready for some spectacular, cooler weather to end November and kick off December. It looks like we’ll see highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees, with sunny skies, and moderate winds. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s, except for areas immediately along the coast.
Thursday morning should dawn nice and chilly across the Houston area. (Weather Bell)
A fairly tight pressure gradient in front of an advancing front has caused more gusty winds than previously expected today. A site at Johnson Space Center recently measured a wind gust of 44 mph. These strong winds are expected for persist along the coast and the first tier of inland counties for a few more hours.
Winds and gusts as of 12:35pm CT. (National Weather Service)
As a result, the National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for these counties through 3pm CT. The biggest threat is to high-profile vehicles traveling across exposed areas, such as bridges and other elevated roadways.
The winds should die down later today as the storm system and a weak front move off to the east of the Houston region. Expect some scattered storms as the front comes through, but the severe weather should remain to the north and east of Houston for the most part.
Posted on Monday at 12:35pm CT by Eric
Good morning. I hope everyone had a great weekend—although a tad warm for this time of year, the weather was mostly pleasant for both Saturday and Sunday. More winter-like weather is coming, however.
Storm conditions are only marginally favorable for Houston today, and as expected most of the development has been well to the north-northeast of the region in areas such as Lufkin. It appears as though a capping inversion remains in place over the city, and this should limit storm activity this morning. Some areas should see scattered rain showers, however.
By early this afternoon some drier air will move in along with a weak cool front, which should clear our skies and allow temperatures to rise into the low 80s for much of the area. Although warm, this drier air will also allow the region to cool off fairly quickly this evening, with temperatures falling into the upper 50s north of Houston tonight, and lower 60s closer to the coast.
After a cool start we’ll see another fairly warm day Tuesday as the weak front washes out, with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. By Tuesday afternoon we should see a modest increase in rain chances as a stronger cool front approaches, and moves through the area sometime on Tuesday evening or night. I’m not looking for much more than a broken line of showers and storms with this stronger front. The front’s passage should be noticeable with drier air moving in behind.
A well defined front moves through on Tuesday evening, per the GFS model. (Weather Bell)