Month: November 2016

Good morning! Hopefully you had a splendid Thanksgiving and aren’t still stuffed after yesterday. I may be. But I have an appetite for a forecast, so let’s hop to it.

Today & Weekend

We are in a holding pattern right now between Wednesday’s front and the next system waiting for us next week. That means the weekend will see nice weather for the most part.

Today will be pleasant overall, but a bit gray at times. We may have a couple showers or sprinkles, around the area, but otherwise it will be a mix of clouds and some sun. High temperatures will hit the low 70s.

Forecast radar from HRRR model today shows mostly minor showers scattered about. (Weather Bell)

Forecast radar from HRRR model today shows mostly minor showers scattered about. (Weather Bell)

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Happy Thanksgiving! Today’s a great day to appreciate what we’ve got, and Matt and I are truly thankful for our families, and for the faithful and generous community of readers we have here. Now, a quick forecast.

Today

We’re going to see almost perfect conditions for Thanksgiving, from a cool morning to sunny skies this afternoon with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Enjoy the great weather.

Friday and Saturday

Wednesday’s front will move back onshore later on Thursday and will bring some moderately higher moisture levels into the Houston region on Friday. This may produce a few scattered showers along the coast, especially to the southwest of Houston, but for the most part Houston should see partly to mostly sunny skies. Meanwhile a reinforcing short of cooler, drier air will move into the area on Friday, setting the stage for two days in the low 70s, with low temperatures in the 40s north of the area, and mid-50s close to the coast. More great weather.

Drier, northeasterly air will provide for pleasant conditions on Friday and Saturday. (earth.nullschool.net)

Drier, northeasterly air will provide for pleasant conditions on Friday and Saturday. (earth.nullschool.net)

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Good morning. A line of showers is moving through Houston this morning bringing some moderately heavy rainfall—but nothing too severe. The storms are moving at a good enough clip that they should not produce flooding issues. A front, with significantly drier air, is following just behind and will make for a lovely Thanksgiving.

Today

The storms should move through the area by around 10 am and be off the coast shortly thereafter. In their wake we should see a pleasant afternoon, with highs in the mid-70s and sunny skies. Temperatures will drop off fairly quickly this evening.

The radar as of 6:50am CT. (Intellicast)

The radar as of 6:50am CT. (Intellicast)

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Good morning. Storms are possible later today, but our best guess is that they’ll probably skirt the metro Houston area and remain to the northwest. Thanksgiving looks quite pleasant in the wake of a moderate front.

Today

It’s generally in the mid-60s across the Houston area today, quite warm for late November. Along with warmer mornings, we’re going to see some other key differences today in weather that augur the potential for storms later. Winds will pick up out of the south later by this afternoon, possibly gusting up to about 20mph. We’ll also see more cloud cover later today, an indication of rising moisture levels.

Meanwhile a strong disturbance over the southwestern United States will move east, toward Texas today. For our northwestern region, including the College Station area, the combination of daytime heating and the disturbance will create conditions favorable for some severe weather this afternoon through about midnight, or shortly before. There may be enough rotation to produce some isolated tornadoes and hail, but the primary threat is probably severe thunderstorms. (Fortunately daytime temperatures only in the mid-70s may limit some of the severity of storms). Here’s where NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center says the biggest threat will come later today:

(NOAA)

Severe weather outlook for Tuesday. (NOAA)

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Today, we’re launching a new series: The Space City Rewind. In this series, relying on various resources and historic weather data, we’re going to discuss historic weather events that have occurred in the greater Houston area. Although there are many fine books and articles in print, there’s limited, definitive information online about Houston’s turbulent weather history. We aim to publish informative, detailed, and insightful pieces on such events. With many new readers and residents in the Houston area, it’s helpful to understand our history and the range of severe weather that can affect those living on the upper Texas coast. We’ll talk about the meteorology, impacts, and share some interesting stories and photos.

We begin with the November 21, 1992 Southeast Texas tornado outbreak. Read More…