Warm, muggy weather for Houston before a strong cold front Saturday

Good morning. Houston will have a few warm, muggy days before a cold front moves through on Saturday and brings us several days of absolutely gorgeous weather.

Wednesday

After intermittent heavy rainfall on Monday and Tuesday, moisture levels are still fairly high today across the area. This will lead to some scattered showers today, especially during the afternoon hours due to daytime heating. These storms shouldn’t be too concerning, and probably won’t last too long where they pop up. Otherwise, skies should be partly sunny, and highs will rise into the low 80s.

Thursday and Friday

As some high pressure mixes into the area we’re going to see lower rain chances to end the work week, although it still seems as though we may squeeze out a few showers along the afternoon sea breeze. The more noticeable feature will be temperatures—expect them to rise into the mid-80s with fairly high humidity. Nights will offer little relief, with temperatures only falling to around 70 degrees.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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Flash flood watch in effect today for Houston

Unsettled weather will continue for Houston today, as relatively small-scale, but intense showers and thunderstorms bring widespread rainfall to the area. These are nasty storms to try and forecast because while parts of central and southern Houston have received less than one-quarter an inch of rain during the last 24 hours, some parts of southern Brazoria County have received more than 9 inches.

Today

A flash flood watch remains in effect for central and southern parts of the Houston metro area today through about 4pm, as the heaviest rains are likely to continue to fall between the coast and downtown Houston. The storms are being driven by high moisture content and small features in the atmosphere. Additional rainfall amounts may be as much as 2-3 inches of rain, with higher isolated amounts.

Flash flood watch in effect for Houston today. (National Weather Service)

 

These storms have been pretty unpredictable (certainly there was little expectation of a nine-inch rain bomb just south of Houston on Monday and Monday night), so we’ll have to keep on alert for most of today. While I don’t expect major problems for most of Harris County, you just never know when atmospheric moisture levels get this high (about 1.8 inches of precipitable water) during the spring and summer months in Houston.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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Scattered storms possible today and Tuesday, big cold front this weekend

After a calm Easter weekend, some modest storm chances return to Houston this week. We’re also going to have a real cold front at the end of the week, which should be one of the last of the season, so we should look forward to that.

Today

A complex of showers and thunderstorms has developed over South Texas this morning, from Brownsville to Corpus Christi. This system should moved to the east-northeast later this morning, and may bring some scattered storms into the Houston region. I think the threat is probably highest for areas to the southwest of Houston (i.e. from El Campo to Lake Jackson), but there’s enough moisture out there that we can’t rule out some storms making it into the entire Houston area. These storms could produce some heavy rains over a few areas, while parts of Houston remain dry. Highs today will reach the low 80s.

There’s a marginal chance of severe weather to the south of Houston today. (NOAA)

Tuesday

Another potentially unsettled day, with low pressure hanging around the Texas coast, and atmospheric moisture. Most areas will probably only see a few tenths of an inch of rain—or less, and I’m not overly concerned about the threat of severe weather. Highs again in the low 80s.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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Easter weekend looking mostly un-egg-citing

After a pretty nice and quiet Thursday, we head into Friday with similarly decent weather. We have a couple question marks this weekend, but I don’t think it will be anything to really mar the Easter weekend. But let’s hop to it.

Today

Again, no issues today. I expect it will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. Probably a lot of similarities to Thursday! High pressure is in control, but it is moving away, so onshore flow may get a little steadier late, which could lead to a shower or two in just a couple spots. More subtly, this will mean an increase in humidity very late today or tonight. But the bulk of Friday looks alright.

Saturday

The forecast gets a touch more challenging Saturday. A weak disturbance a few thousand feet up will pivot across the region, probably just east of Houston. This should be enough to set off scattered showers and storms, but also probably just east of Houston.

NAM model forecast shows a weak disturbance in Louisiana tomorrow that should keep most showers away from the Houston area. (Penn State)

So the bottom line on Saturday: It’ll be a bit more humid. It will also be a couple degrees warmer. While I can’t entirely rule out a shower or two in the area, odds favor most of us staying dry. The best chance for a scattered shower will be east of I-45 and probably as far east as Beaumont or Lake Charles. So if you’re headed to Hobbyfest or Buzzfest, it looks pretty good. The Houston Dash also kick off the season at BBVA Saturday afternoon. It looks great.

The weather for both the afternoon Dash match and the evening Dynamo match looks excellent!

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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