Good morning. Let’s take a look at our forecast for the rest of this week and Memorial Day Weekend.
TODAY and WEDNESDAY
For the last couple of days sinking air and a weak capping inversion have won out over moisture, which has had the effect of limiting any showers and storms to only very isolated coverage. That pattern appears most likely to hold today and Wednesday, with any rain that develops doing so on an isolated basis. This means we’re going to see partly sunny skies and warm days, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s, and possibly 90 degrees by Wednesday. Since we still haven’t hit 90° this month I’d like to see that streak continue, but we’ve got to get through Wednesday first.
THURSDAY
We’re going to see a slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, particularly during the afternoon hours. This will probably keep temperatures in the mid-80s.
FRIDAY
An upper-level storm system will move into Texas on Thursday and Friday, likely bringing 2 to 4 inches of rain for much of the northern part of the state and along the I-35 corridor. The question is how far this extends downward into the Houston metro region. I think we’re going to see some interaction between this system and the Gulf of Mexico moisture, but how much rain will that bring? Hard to say. Maybe only a few tenths of an inch of rain, maybe a few inches.
Any storms that do get going will have to be watched, because a sheared atmosphere will allow for the possibility of severe weather. At this point what we can say is that Friday and Friday night might be messy around Houston—stay tuned.
THE WEEKEND
By this weekend we’ll be back to pattern whereby we’ll see warm days in the upper 80s, with partly to mostly sunny days. In turn this daytime heating may drive the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. This, of course, is a very summer-like pattern.
I think that SE TX will lie in a well defined jet couplet with PW values near 2.00 inches. CAPE values will be close to 3500 J/Kg and LI values between -9 and -11 over the northern zones so some of the storms will likely become strong to severe over the NW half of SE Tx. Do you agree?
I’d say that it’s more likely that the axis of heavy rainfall will stretch from Columbus west (WEST) of Houston to NNE to the Arklatex region. Probably, most of the heavy rainfall will be north of Houston but any mesoscale boundary that develops south of the main convection could push into the Houston area.
The trouble, is, Eric, how good a chance is there that such a boundary WILL push into our area?
Is the activity in the Bahamas worth watching?
Yes, I think there’s a good chance it becomes a tropical system off the Carolinas. No effect on the Gulf, however.