Author: Matt

Texas has had a bit of a checkered weather history on Memorial Day weekends. The good news is that a good chunk of this weekend will be fine, albeit quite hot. The final part of it should see more active weather and rain chances. Whether you’re heading to Hill Country, Big Bend, South Texas, or Dallas, you’ll have at least some rain and storm chances to contend with at some point this weekend.

Today and Saturday

We have turned up the humidity this morning, and we’ll continue to raise it as the day goes forward. Low clouds this morning may be a bit stubborn, but expect sunshine to begin peaking out a bit later. High temperatures should be around 90 degrees as long as we get sunshine. It will turn partly to mostly cloudy tonight, and it’s going to remain on the muggy side, with lows likely not dropping below the upper 70s or even 80° in spots.

Saturday afternoon looks mostly alright, but it’s going to be hot. Temperatures should officially hit at least the low-90s Saturday, with some chance we see mid-90s officially (upper 80s to near 90° at the coast). Heat index values will be pretty high, and given that we haven’t had to deal much with that yet this year, use caution if you’ll be taking in the outdoors. Drink plenty of water.

No matter where in Texas you might be on Saturday, it’s going to be very hot. (Weather Bell)

Rain risks Saturday would be confined to a very isolated morning shower near the coast or Galveston Bay. Anything serious should stay way up in far north Texas or Oklahoma. Those showers and storms will likely fall apart as they get south of Dallas.

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Just a quick late afternoon update for everyone. The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM for basically everyone north and west of the center of Houston.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch through 11 PM for Houston and areas northwest of the city. (NWS)


A few showers and storms are developing north and west of College Station, mainly in the I-35 corridor this afternoon as a cold front slides this way.

Radar image as of 3:50 PM shows storms in the I-35 corridor, ready to drop south and east. (GRLevel3)

As we go into this evening, we expect these storms to hold together and strengthen a bit further. As a result, scattered showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will approach the Houston metro area after about 6-7 PM. They should clear the coast by about 11 PM or so. Storms will probably peak in intensity northwest of Houston, but some of the stronger ones could hold together to the coast as the front moves through the Houston metro this evening. The NWS may expand the watch a little later if necessary. Any thunderstorms could have strong winds (50-70 mph or so), large hail, and heavy rain. Tornadoes are always a possibility with severe weather, but in this case, the risk of that looks very low and is not a significant concern.

HRRR model depiction of timing/orientation of storms this evening. Expect storms moving northwest to southeast across our area from about 6-11 PM. (Weather Bell)


As is often the case in these scenarios, not everyone will see thunderstorms or severe weather; that will be isolated to scattered. But some of you could see some strong to severe storms this evening. Have a way to receive weather warnings, particularly if you’ll be outside enjoying the nice weather we’re having today. Don’t worry: Equally nice or nicer weather is on tap tomorrow.

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Posted at 3:50 PM by Matt

Rain has come at a premium in recent weeks, with only about a half inch officially at Bush Airport over the last 30 days. This weekend will likely see us add to that, but probably not in too big a fashion.


No issues today. Yes, there may be a couple showers around this afternoon, especially east of I-45, but none should be particularly significant. So if you have outdoor plans today, it would be good to have an umbrella handy, just in case you briefly need it. Odds are you won’t have to open it though. Temperatures will likely top off around where they did yesterday, the upper-80s to low-90s. Galveston has yet to drop below 80° this morning and is likely to set or tie both another record high and record warm minimum temperature today.

Saturday and Sunday

If you have outdoor plans this weekend, I think the best advice is to just have an umbrella. You’ll probably need it at some point, but not most of the time.

Both Saturday and Sunday afternoons will likely have some rain and storms in the area. I think the better chance of widespread storms is Saturday overnight into Sunday afternoon. Most folks should see at least some rain, but only a few areas will see heavy rain. Average rain totals this weekend should be around 0.5″, but a few places will likely see one or two inches of rain and others less than 0.5″.

Total rainfall through Sunday evening should be manageable. The best chance for widespread rain is late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. (Weather Bell)


High temperatures should max out a couple degrees cooler than yesterday and today, with mid to upper 80s (perhaps near 90° Saturday with enough sun). Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s. You may notice slightly more comfortable weather later Sunday, but it won’t be anything to get too excited about.

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This weather pattern is one that occurs in Southeast Texas fairly often this time of year, and the best word I’ve found to describe it is “annoying.” You have to mention showers, but most people won’t see much. No exceptions this time, as low-end shower chances will be in the picture the next few days. Higher chances for showers exist this weekend. Let’s get to some details.


A quiet start to the morning across the area. If you’re south or east of Houston, you’ve probably noticed gusty winds though. Onshore flow has cranked up, but winds should ease up some this morning.

The bulk of the day will feature a mix of sun and clouds. There could be an isolated shower, primarily north and west of Houston, but I don’t see anything too serious from this.

One model’s depiction of rain chances later today shows just a handful of showers north and west of the city. (Texas Tech University)


Expect temperatures to be near to just under where we got yesterday (mid to upper 80s).

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After a disappointing night of basketball, many Houstonians will be seeking positive news this morning (though the crazy exciting Astros beat the Yankees on a thrilling final play). In the weather department, we can satisfy your wishes.

Friday and Weekend

Perhaps some of you were roused from sleep between 1:30 and 3 AM this morning? A leading line of thunderstorms pushed through areas from Houston and north to southeast parts of the region overnight. That has since cleared the coast.

Radar loop ending around 6:15 AM shows storms exiting the coast, as another cold front sweeps through the region. (College of DuPage)


We might see an isolated shower or two yet this morning, but the cold front should push through Houston by 7-8 AM. With the front exiting the coast today, expect humidity to drop through the morning and afternoon. Dewpoints should be in the 50s by this evening, which is considered quite comfortable. High temperatures should get safely into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. I wouldn’t be shocked to see upper 80s down near El Campo or Bay City today. Bottom line: Today should be a fine day.

It will be a gorgeous night tonight with lows in the mid-60s. Then we’ll shoot for the lower or middle 80s on Saturday with full sunshine. Sunday will be a repeat of Saturday, but with temps a degree or two warmer (mid to upper 80s) and humidity a tick or two higher. Lots going on in the area this weekend: Puppies for Breakfast at Market Square Saturday morning, Pups to the Pitch for the Dash/Sky Blue match Saturday afternoon, among other things. And the weather looks perfect for all of it!

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