Author: Eric

After Wednesday’s absolutely gorgeous weather—easily one of the nicest days in late May in the last 20 years—conditions are now going to warm up some across Houston. But the weather is still going to remain relatively calm for awhile, until the forecast turns wetter at the beginning of next week.

Today

This morning is still going to be quite nice across the Houston area, with lows starting out in the 60s for most of the region, and still relatively dry air. Highs today should reach into the mid-80s or so under mostly sunny skies. But later on today you’re probably going to notice winds picking up out of the south, which will signal the return of humidity, and eventually, better rain chances.

Friday and Saturday

Heading into the weekend we’re going to see warm, almost summer-like weather. (Which seems appropriate because let’s face it, folks, summer is almost upon us). Look for high temperatures of around 90 degrees, and relatively steamy overnight lows only falling into the upper 70s. Skies should remain sunny for the most part.

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After some nastier than expected thunderstorms moved through Houston on Tuesday evening, with damaging winds west and south of Houston, conditions have settled down nicely. Fewer than 3,000 CenterPoint Energy customers remain without power, and skies are clearing as the sun comes up this morning. Notably, Bush Intercontinental Airport did officially fall below 60 degrees this morning, giving Houston its coolest temperature in late May in two decades. Enjoy the cooler weather—because you know it won’t last.

Temperatures across Texas on Wednesday morning. (Weather Bell)

Today

What a day we have in store. After a cool start, with northerly winds holding down humidity levels, highs today should climb into the low to mid-80s with mostly sunny skies. Conditions will be marvelous this evening. Simply exceptional weather for late May.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday

Thursday morning will be pleasant again, with lows generally in the mid-60s across the region. But winds should begin to swing back around to come out of the south by Thursday morning, which will signal the end of our spring fling, and a slow rise in humidity levels. Look for high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees to end the work week, and into Saturday, with continued sunny skies.

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The Houston region received some much needed rainfall over the last couple of days, with generally 1 to 4 inches falling over the metro area. We were fortunate that the showers and thunderstorms delivered the rain not in a deluge but—for Houston—a more steady event. I have some visitors in town from Los Angeles, and they commented on how hard it rained Monday while driving through Houston. I had to inform them that this was pretty common in our city, and certainly not flood inducing. After Monday’s showers we can now look ahead toward some great mid-week weather with a strongish cold front tonight.

Accumulated rainfall for the period for the 48 hours preceding Tuesday morning. (NOAA)

Tuesday

Temperatures are in the upper 60s across the Houston area this morning, and with a slight northerly wind it is not unpleasant. Conditions are going to be even more pleasant tomorrow. That’s because a stronger front (for May) will move through later today. This will bring a chance of showers, and a slight chance of severe weather (mostly high winds) during the afternoon and evening hours. For the most part rain accumulations should be a few tenths of an inch, if that, and should end by late this evening.

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As anticipated, widespread showers and thunderstorms have moved into the Houston area this morning, particularly affecting the coastal regions. Due to the storms, the southern half of the metro area is under a flash flood watch through 1 pm.

Monday

As an upper-level disturbance moves in from the southwest, it is combining with high atmospheric moisture levels to continue to bring a healthy chance of rain into early afternoon hours. However, the large cluster of storms is moving slowly to the east, and therefore should clear the area by some time this afternoon.

Storms moving into Houston as of 6:40am CT. (Intellicast)

For the most part, given our relatively dry ground, rainfall amounts should be quite manageable—1 to 3 inches along the coast, with lesser amounts for inland areas today. We’ll have to be concerned about the possibility of some locally heavier rainfall, but so far these storms have been manageable. Highs should be around 80 degrees.

Tuesday

Rain chances drop off Monday night and Tuesday morning, but then a late-season cool front will move through the region sometime during the day. This front will bring enough instability to produce some scattered showers and potentially thunderstorms (very slight chance of severe weather) later on Tuesday. Rain accumulations will certainly be less than today, and areas that see rain probably will only see a tenth of an inch, or two.

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After mostly dry weather for the last six weeks, Houston’s weather will turn more dynamic later today and Monday. Three factors will help drive the potential for heavy rain during the next 36 hours: high atmospheric moisture content, a stalled front, and an upper-level system moving into the region from the southwest.

We don’t have too many concerns about weather today—as any showers and thunderstorms that develop probably won’t be too organized, and any strong storms should move through the region for the most part. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s with a decent chance of rain. Accumulations will likely be less than 1 inch for most areas.

The bigger potential for storms will come later tonight and Monday, as an upper-level disturbance moves into the region. For now it appears the best rain chances will be closer to the coast, but I think most of the area has a good chance of seeing 2 to 4 inches of rain through Monday night. Because the atmosphere is so moist, we’re likely going to see higher localized amounts where the heaviest storms develop on Monday, but it’s just not possible to predict where those bullseyes will occur. Some flash flooding is therefore possible.

The Texas and Louisiana coasts face a moderate risk of seeing flash flooding tonight and Monday. (NOAA)

The bottom line is we’ll need to pay close attention to weather conditions tonight and on Monday. Lesser rain chances remain Tuesday, whereas from Wednesday on the weather looks great. We’ll stay on top of things for you.

Posted at 10:15am CT on Sunday by Eric