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The major storms that developed over the Brazos Valley today are slowly moving toward the metro Houston area. Parts of northwest Harris County and Montgomery County are included in the latest severe thunderstorm warning from the National Weather Service.

Area of Severe Thunderstorm warning in effect until 5:15pm CT. (National Weather Service)

Area of Severe Thunderstorm warning in effect until 5:15pm CT. (National Weather Service)

 

In addition to heavy rain, these storms are capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 60mph and hail. If you are on the north side of Houston this evening please do not drive into high water and remain indoors if possible. The warning is in effect until 5:15pm.

It still seems likely the bulk of these storms, which are moving slowly to the east, will remain over the northern half of the Houston metro area this evening, north of Interstate 10.

Posted at 4:25pm CT on Thursday by Eric Berger

We’ve done OK today all things considered, with most areas of Houston receiving 0.5 to 2.0 inches of rain, and the heaviest concentrations clustered over west and southwest Harris County. So what’s next?

For some time we’ve been quite concerned about the potential for very heavy rain on Monday because atmospheric moisture levels were forecast to be quite high. And indeed that’s still a possibility. However now some guidance is suggesting that an upper-level storm system moving in from west Texas tonight will remain further to the south, around Matagorda Bay and points south.

The HRRR model, and oher guidance, suggests the heaviest storms will develop south of Houston on Monday. (NOAA)

The HRRR model, and other guidance, suggests the heaviest storms will develop south of Houston on Monday. This is a radar prediction for 8am CT. (NOAA)

 

So there are basically two scenarios: One in which the heaviest storms do track into the greater Houston area, and bring 2 to 4 inches of rain for much of the metro area beginning some time on Monday morning. Under another scenario the storms track further south, and the region sees weather more like today, or even a little bit more benign. In either case I think we’ll see drying conditions by the afternoon or, at the latest, early evening hours.

Which scenario happens? I am not confident to call it at this point, but I’ll have a full update in the morning when we have a better idea of what’s going to happen.

Posted at 8:10pm CT Sunday by Eric Berger

The rain is over. After days of being tortured by Mother Nature (and, you know, tigers), we can at least turn the faucet off for a bit, as drier weather builds into Southeast Texas for the weekend.

TODAY

As the upper level storm partially responsible for repeated rains finally begins to pick up some speed as it exits the Mid-Continent, that will allow for high pressure to settle in over our region for a couple days. That means we should have a good bit of sunshine today. Temperatures will pop into the low to mid 80s.

No complaints about today's rainfall forecast for Southeast Texas. (Weather Bell)

No complaints about today’s rainfall forecast for Southeast Texas. (Weather Bell)

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Good morning. Temperatures are in the low- to mid-60s this morning and we’re going to have a couple of pleasant days before we have to worry about the potential for some very heavy rain.

TODAY and FRIDAY

We’ll see highs in the low 80s for the next couple of days with partly to mostly sunny skies. Mornings will be in the low 60s. Near perfect weather for mid-April.

SATURDAY

On Saturday we’ll begin to transition toward rain, as moisture streams in from the Gulf of Mexico. Under mostly cloudy skies we’ll see temperatures rise into the upper 70s, and strong southeasterly winds gusting up to 20 mph. This will ramp up atmospheric moisture levels, and while we can’t rule out rain on Saturday, most likely it is just setting the stage for the next few days.

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Good morning. It’s going to be a busy day across Southeast Texas, especially as we get deeper into it. I’ll update the Facebook page this afternoon if conditions warrant, and look for another post here this evening, once we get just a little more clarity on how things tonight into Wednesday will unfold.

THIS MORNING & AFTERNOON

There should be no serious issues this morning. A few showers will be around, but severe weather should be absent from our area. A few stronger storms could get going east of I-45 by Midday however.

Houston will be in an interesting spot today. The atmosphere is capped at present (meaning there’s basically a “lid” on things that will suppress storms this morning). As the day goes on, that cap will dissipate, and we’ll be able to start generating thunderstorms. What does all this mean in English? It may take some coaxing to get storms going today. That said, once they do get going, it won’t take a lot for them to become strong or severe, so you’ll want to stay on guard today.

Severe weather risk today is highest from Houston to points south and west. (NOAA)

Severe weather risk today is highest from Houston to points south and west. (NOAA)

So bottom line: Scattered showers and hit/miss thunderstorms today. Rain totals should be manageable outside of the heaviest activity. Most folks should see 0.5″ or less during the daytime today, with isolated higher totals in any more stubborn storms (where up to 2″ or so will be possible). Read More…