After Tuesday’s storms, more are possible this afternoon

Good morning. Not going to lie—the intensity of some of Tuesday afternoon’s storms across north and west Houston surprised me. There were a few downbursts that briefly brought winds as high as 60 mph to areas such as Jersey Village, Cypress, Copperfield, and elsewhere. Rainfall was quite intense, as well. The overall pattern is similar for today, so we could see more of these localized, intense storms in parts of the region.

Wednesday

Given the atmospheric setup, we should again see scattered showers near the coast this morning, with coverage filling by the middle of the day and during the afternoon hours. High resolution models suggest that strong storms could again form along the Interstate 10 corridor during this time period, and slowly lift north. So while I’m not saying you will see a repeat of Tuesday’s intense storms, it is possible. Highs will otherwise reach the low 90s, with partly sunny skies. Shower activity will wane with the loss of daytime heating.

HRRR model depiction of possible storms on Wednesday at 2pm CT. (Weather Bell)

Thursday and Friday

The overall pattern remains similar. Because Houston will be far enough removed from the influence of high pressure, the combination of warm summertime temperatures and ample Gulf of Mexico moisture will do their thing, and each of these days will bring rain to about 50 percent of the Houston area. Highs should, for the most part, be in the low 90s with partly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

So will this wet and potentially stormy pattern extend into the weekend? The short answer is yes, although for now I still think both days will have lower rain chances, in the 30 percent range, to go along with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 90s. But how high is my confidence in this forecast? It’s not sky high, that’s for sure.

Next week

Some models are suggesting an upper-level low pressure system will move toward Texas early next week, and this would act to increase rain chances beginning Monday or Tuesday. I don’t think we’re looking at any kind of a flood situation, to be sure, but it does seem like our overall wet and cooler pattern will extend at least into the middle of next week.

Temperatures next week should be cooler than normal. (Weather Bell)

It’s been an interesting summer so far, as we’ve seen what happens when high pressure doesn’t build directly over our region. There’s still time for this, of course, as we could see a “ridge of doom” in August or even September. And I’m not complaining. The cooler summer has been nice, and I can count the number of times I’ve watered my lawn in 2021 on my Unicorn horns. Which is zero. Because I don’t have a unicorn horn growing out of my forehead.

15 thoughts on “After Tuesday’s storms, more are possible this afternoon”

  1. Rain has been great. Haven’t even fixed my sprinkler system from the freeze yet.

    • Yup, won;t hear me complain about it. Rain almost ever afternoon, and always clears out in time for a great sunset walk with the dogs. Now the mosquitos on the other hand…

  2. The mornings yesterday have been really nice in the Spring Branch area. Got my 6-mile bike ride done each day without breaking a sweat. The relatively cool air was great. Please, sir, may I have more?

  3. I apologize if I’ve missed it, but can you post an explanation as to why we are having these intense storms?

    • Probably just a high pressure ridge that sits over Texas for weeks and brings 100 degree temps every day without a drop of rain, causes droughts, etc…

      On the bright side, if we don’t get a ridge later this summer, we won’t have any lack of rain, and if we do, we will be protected from hurricanes. We can be pretty much rule out having both drought and hurricanes this summer. That’s why it’s better to have the ridge later in the summer, when hurricanes are common.

  4. This summer has been insane. Literally rain every day for as far back as I can recall. Bring on the Ridge of Doom . . .

  5. For several months I have been getting your post a day late. I just read about the Unicorn horns, and I see that someone commented about almost spitting out their coffee — July 14 in the morning. Confusing why mine comes around 1:30 the next morning. I am writing this July 15 at 5:53a.

    Is there something I can do to get it earlier?

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