Category: Houston weather

There should not be any real surprises about the overall weather pattern over the next several days, as standard summer fare looks to be the rule for the Houston area.

Today

Friday might be the best opportunity for us to not see rain over the next week. Those rain chances certainly are not zero today, but any activity is expected to be minor and isolated. Sunshine should rule, with hot temperatures peaking in the mid-90s, give or take.

Over the next several days, look for peak afternoon heat index values in the 103° to 106° range. This map shows the forecast for 4 PM Friday. (Weather Bell)

Heat index values could push 105° at times, a theme that will continue through the weekend.

Weekend

The weather this weekend should be fairly typical for summer with sun, clouds, highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s, and a requisite 20 to 30 percent rain chance each day. Chances may be slightly higher Sunday over Saturday, but it’s possible you could see a passing downpour on either or both days.

Next week

I believe Monday has a decent chance at being very similar to today, with mainly sunshine and mid-90s. Tuesday through Thursday should see a bit of a “weakness” open in the upper level weather pattern over Texas that is conducive for more showers and storms to develop. However, this may skew to the east of Houston, meaning rain chances next week look higher in Baytown or Beaumont than they do in Katy or Cypress. Still, expect to at least hear some thunder in the area at times, with sun and clouds and some passing showers otherwise. Highs will be again in the 90s, with lows likely in the 70s.

Rain totals look minimal over the next week or so, although there will be a couple localized spots that could register an inch or two with a slow moving downpour. (Pivotal Weather)

Total rainfall over the next week will be low on average, with some folks likely seeing no rain at all. Others may pick up an inch or two in isolated spots as a slow moving downpour passes. The takeaway here is that we don’t see any sort of organized, significant rain chances through at least the middle of next week.

Tropics

Eric’s post yesterday did a nice job explaining why we should not be giving into fearmongering, which will inevitably happen over the next couple months. I urge you to read the final section of his post from yesterday if you missed it.

The tropics look quiet through early next week. (NOAA)

The National Hurricane Center’s 5-day outlook map is nice and blank this morning; good news for sure. The next item to watch may or may not develop, but it would likely appear on our radar by midweek next week. We have talked about the expectation that things will rev up later this month, so let’s enjoy the quiet now. Worth noting, NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook was revised yesterday, and like Colorado State’s the day prior, it calls for a very, very active close to hurricane season.

For those of you scoring at home, that would be 10 to 16 additional tropical storms, 5 to 9 additional hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes between now and November.

It’s important to understand what these seasonal outlooks are not predicting: A direct hit on Texas. Yes, that certainly could happen again, but we have seen seasons in the past that have been extremely active and spare Texas. Take 1995 for example. It was the 5th most active season on record (based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy), and yet Texas was only impacted by Tropical Storm Dean, a minor flood event. I remember 1995 well because I was a 13 year old weather weenie walking around with a t-shirt that had every storm plotted on the back. The Caribbean Islands were raked that season, but the western Gulf was spared (the eastern Gulf took a late season hit from Opal in Florida). Most of the storms in 1995 were “fish” storms that recurved north and northeast in the open Atlantic. I’m not going to tell you that this year will behave that way; we just don’t know. But I know a lot of folks see these forecasts and fret, justifiably so. We are not thrilled by the long-term signals of high activity either, but there are no guarantees in weather. Eric touched on this thoroughly on Wednesday. Hurricanes are a part of life on the Gulf Coast, so your best antidote to fear is preparedness. That’s where our mindsets should be right now.

Good morning. The ongoing weather forecast remains more or less the same, with hot, but not too hot weather, and the potential for isolated to scattered rain showers most days. This is basically what August is like when there is no dominant ridge of high pressure overhead, or a low pressure system moving in from the Gulf of Mexico.

Thursday

Skies today will be mostly sunny, allowing highs to rise into the mid-90s. As high pressure strengthens in the region we don’t anticipate much in the way of rainfall, although it is possible a few stray showers may develop east of the city. Winds will be light, out of the southeast at 5 or 10 mph later today. Low temperatures will fall into the mid-70s for inland areas tonight, while remaining near 80 degrees along the coast.

It will be August-hot for most of Texas on Thursday. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday

With the ridge firmly in control, we anticipate this being a hot and sunny day with highs in the mid-90s and almost no chance of rain.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend again calls for partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s. However, slightly better rain chances enter the forecast due to a slight atmospheric disturbance that may push across the region. For most this probably won’t have too much effect, but it will nudge rain chances each day up to about 30 percent. They are most likely to develop during the afternoon hours.

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Houston will see fairly typical August weather for the next week, which is not entirely bad news. This is the time of year when temperatures can soar into the triple digits—but the absence of a strong high pressure system will keep our highs a little bit more moderate. We also, at least at this time, see no evidence of really heavy, organized rainfall. In short, we’ll take it.

Wednesday

Of the remaining days in this work week, Wednesday may be the most active due to the passing of a disturbance in the upper atmosphere. Skies should be mostly sunny today, with highs rising into the upper 90s and calm winds. But by this afternoon daytime heating will combine with the disturbance to at least produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of the modeling shows this development to the east of Interstate 45, and some have the activity closer to Beaumont than Houston. Regardless, know it’s possible for thunderstorms to spin up this afternoon and evening before dying down with the loss of daytime heating.

NAM model forecast for radar reflectivity at 8pm CT Wednesday. (Weather Bell)

Thursday and Friday

As high pressure builds over Houston we can probably expect a pair of mostly sunny days, with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances should be quite low, probably 10 percent or less.

Saturday and Sunday

The high’s influence should diminish over the weekend, returning Houston to a pattern of partly to mostly sunny days, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. We’ll again see the possibility of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but most likely they’ll be scattered.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday. (Pivotal Weather)

Next week

Honestly, there’s not much to say about the extended pattern. We expect similar conditions to more or less prevail for awhile—not too hot, not too wet. As we’ve said, this is probably about as good as we can expect for August.

Tropical Storm Isaias is bearing down on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, and as that storm exits, we actually look to settle down into a period of calm for a bit in the tropics. All good things must come to an end however, and as we go into the back half of August, we will begin to refocus our attention on the entirety of the Atlantic basin. For now, let’s enjoy the respite.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

No meaningful tropical activity is expected over the next week, although conditions will likely begin to get more active by August 15th or so.

Isaias

Isaias experienced a bit of a renaissance last night, ramping up to a moderately strong category 1 hurricane as it made landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, NC.

Since last evening, Isaias has raced northward and been downgraded to a tropical storm. The center is over the Mid-Atlantic this morning, heading toward Upstate New York or western New England by evening. Along its path will be flooding rains, strong winds, and some tornadoes still to come for places including Philadelphia and New York City.

Behind Isaias

In the Atlantic, we actually have no real disturbances of note behind Isaias. Yes, there is the disturbance dubbed Invest 94L, which is a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda this morning. That one is unlikely to do much and is certainly not a threat to the U.S. There may be a tropical wave that emerges in the Bay of Campeche this weekend, but that is not expected to develop at this time as it likely moves into Mexico.

Meanwhile, off Africa, we are seeing some waves push across the continent and off the coast that look pretty robust.

The wave train will continue to send waves east to west across Africa and into the Atlantic over the next week or so, though none is considered especially likely to develop. (NOAA)

None of these are expected to develop, but it’s not entirely out of the question that something could develop. Either way, anything emerging off Africa today would be at least 10 to 14 days away from us here, so we couldn’t tell you anything with any specificity anyway. That said, at least for the next week or so, none of these waves appears to be a serious candidate for any kind of meaningful development.

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