Houston’s got some nicer weather coming for a few days this weekend before we get a little more unsettled next week. I want to go more in depth on the potential for a pattern change starting in mid-November, so there’s a pretty detailed section on that below. Let’s jump in.
Rest of Today
We’re starting off warm again this morning across the region. Galveston is likely to at least tie their record for warmest morning low for this date (74° in 2000).
Another extremely warm morning in Southeast Texas for November. (NOAA)
Expect a mild afternoon with high temps in the low 80s. Scattered showers on Monday focused west of I-45, and then yesterday, they focused mainly between Houston and Lake Charles. Today? There is an organized line of weakening thunderstorms southeast of Dallas this morning, but I don’t quite think those will make it here. Best chance for some steadier rain though would be northwest of a Conroe to Hempstead line this morning. The air over Southeast Texas is pretty stable, so while there will likely be some isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon, especially north or west of the city. I’m guessing most of us will stay dry, but your best bet today is to carry an umbrella as an insurance policy, knowing there’s probably a good chance you won’t need it. Read More…
Long time readers of mine will be familiar with the date of Sept. 24th, the point at which the historical chance of a hurricane striking Texas falls very nearly to zero. Just three hurricanes have struck Texas after that date in the last 160 years, the most recent being Hurricane Jerry, in 1989. (The storm’s landfall, on Oct. 16, is the latest a hurricane has ever hit Texas. It had 85-mph winds and came ashore along Galveston Island).
I’ve waited a few days later this year to make an “end of season” post because I wanted to follow the evolution of Hurricane Matthew (which now, clearly, will not come into the Gulf of Mexico), and because the upper-atmosphere pattern still has a September feel about it. What I mean by this is that the fast-flowing jet stream in the upper levels of the atmosphere really hasn’t dug that far south yet, bringing with it strong wind currents that are hostile to hurricane formation and intensification.
This GFS model forecast for upper-level winds next Thursday morning shows that the jet stream isn’t far enough south to provide really strong upper-level winds along the Texas coast. (Weather Bell)
Good morning. Houston is warmer this morning, with lows in ranging from the low- to upper-40s, but the respite from winter won’t last too long.
As the onshore flow resumes these more southerly winds will bring moisture back into the atmosphere, and we should see increasingly cloudy skies this afternoon and evening. Highs will climb into the upper 60s, somewhat dependent upon how early the clouds move in.
Conditions will change Wednesday as a weak front approaches Houston and likely stalls along the coast. If moisture levels were higher I’d be confident in seeing some decent rain showers, but as we’ve been so dry for awhile, I expect only scattered, light rain on Wednesday, likely during the morning hours. Highs will be in the low 70s.
A stronger cold front will likely move through the area on Thursday morning, and again I expect to see some scattered showers but nothing too heavy. Perhaps some areas will see a few tenths of an inch of rain, but it should be nothing to write home about. Highs will be about 70 degrees and I expect skies to begin clearing late on Thursday.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY and SUNDAY
The clearing will be driven by a very pronounced ridge of high pressure, shown in the forecast map for the upper level of the atmosphere on Friday, at noon.
Forecast map showing features in upper level of the atmosphere on Friday, noon. (Weather Bell)
From now on, for the convenience of mobile users, I’m going to begin each post with a brief summary: Houston will have several pleasant fall days before a slight chance of rain returns on Sunday. Strong storms are possible on Monday and Tuesday ahead of significant front.
After 0.1 to 0.5 inches of rain fell across most of the Houston area on Wednesday night showers are moving out of the area, and being replaced by much drier air. Highs climbed into the mid-80s for much of Houston on Wednesday, and temperatures for now through Saturday will feel much cooler, in the upper 60s to about 70 degrees. Nighttime temperatures will also feel great, in the low 50s. Expect partly sunny days.
Saturday should be the nicest weekend day in several weeks. Read More…