Here’s the summer outlook for Houston and Texas

Thanks to persistent rainfall, we’ve started the month of June cooler than normal in the Houston region. The average temperature, through yesterday, is running 1 to 2 degrees below normal for most of us. But will that trend hold?

First, a word on what we mean by “summer.” There are various definitions of summer. Meteorologists define it as June through August. If we’re going by the solstice, summer runs from June 20 this year to September 22. For a practical Houstonian, I think a good definition of summer is June through September, as that’s the hottest time of year, and the period when we’re most concerned about tropical weather. So for this post, we’ll be looking at the period of June through September.

June outlook

Models are fairly consistent in forecasting a cooler than normal, and wetter than normal June. (Note these seasonal forecasts were released on June 1, so they’re not “cheating” by taking into account the weather to start the month). Given our slightly cooler and definitively wetter start to June, and the potential return of wetter and cooler weather during the second half of next week, I think it’s safe to say these forecasts will verify.

July, August, and September

The question in my mind, then, is what comes after June? According to NOAA, the broader outlook beyond June sees Houston reverting to a more typical summertime pattern. The precise forecast calls for an average temperature for Houston and surrounding areas of 82.3 degrees, about 0.4 degree above normal. NOAA predicts an 80 percent chance of near normal, or above normal temperatures for July, August, and September. (Sorry, there’s less than a 3 percent chance of a substantially cooler than normal summer).

In terms of precipitation, the forecast calls for 15.0 inches of rainfall, which is pretty much right on normal. So, at this time, there is no expectation of a drought. As always, a single hurricane or tropical storm could completely wreck this precipitation forecast, so please take it with a grain of salt.

What should you take away from this? First of all, it’s great news that we’re probably not looking at an oppressively hot and dry forecast for this summer. No one wants to see a repeat of the summer of 2011 heat and drought any times soon. In the bigger picture, however, seasonal forecasts are nothing more than a very general guide. It’s still going to be hot this summer, and we’ll need to remain vigilant for any tropical weather.

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10 thoughts on “Here’s the summer outlook for Houston and Texas”

  1. Hi I can’t find where to report bugs for the Space City app. Mine has not updated the forecast since June 4th, but the hourly weather is the correct date. Am I missing something?

  2. Not for publication I need your font size to be slightly larger to read it, but when I enlarge it on my iPhone screen the left and right margins fall off the screen slightly. I would love a button where I could enlarge the font but the formatting still fit my screen. Thanks

    • you can increase the font size by using the button aA button in teh url bar– that will increase the font size without changing the rest of the formatting

  3. Is this “normal” based off the “new normal” that was just in the news because of the decadal update? Meaning if this forecast were done a year ago, you’d be talking about “significantly warmer than normal” temperatures?

  4. Really enjoy your forecast from Beaumont even though they aren’t for this area. We are close enough!
    How difficult would it be to include this area?

  5. OK, sounds like we’ll get thru with” normal toasting and roasting” this summer. I can live with that.

    🙂 But given your recognition by the Mayor, I’m looking forward to your next success, the deployment of an anti-hurricane force shield along the Gulf Cost stretching from Brownsville to Key West!. Said shield would steer everything into the middle Atlantic, rendering all tropical weather into “fish storms.”:-)

  6. ‘Summer’ is officially early May to late October. The October date includes Hallowe’en, and is an independent variable but generally correlated with my choice of costume with a Murphian certainty.

  7. I like STL Blues Fan’s new goal for an anti-hurricane shield!

    And, when Eric and Matt are done with that, they can build the anti-flood shield over us – it will deflect all the unnecessary rain to New Mexico and West Texas. Ha ha ha!

    • 😂The infamous corporate performance appraisal “stretch objective” —— “improve efficiency, productivity and thus lower costs by accomplishing both with no additional resources” 🤪😂🤠 (but don’t expect a raise or bonus!)

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