Good morning. The big concern today is a line of strong thunderstorms moving into metro Houston this morning from the west. As of about 6:30am CT, the leading edge of the main line of storms was located at Schulenburg.

These storms will advance into Houston later this morning, likely reaching western parts of the metro area between 7 and 9am CT and moving into the central Houston area by 8 to 10am. The main threats from these storms include damaging winds (gusts of 40mph or greater), heavy rains, and possibly some tornadoes. As these storms have moved across central Texas they have produced a large amount of lightning, and briefly torrential rain has caused some short-lived street flooding.

Fortunately, the storms are moving to the east at a good clip, may weaken a bit as they approach the coast, and should pass through most areas in about an hour. After the main line moves through this morning, some additional, lighter rain may linger across parts of Houston this afternoon and evening, before a cold front moves through tonight. This should lead to briefly cooler weather on Thursday—it’s going to be a spectacular day, plan to spend some time outdoors if possible—before we warm up again heading into the weekend.

After sunny conditions Saturday, we’ll again have to watch for the possibility of heavy rain on Sunday, although models have backed off some of their extreme predictions. I’d still expect a solid 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain on Sunday and Sunday night for the metro area, and conditions will again be in place at least for the possibility of some severe thunderstorms.

Posted at 6:45am CT on Wednesday by Eric

Good morning. We have some potentially dynamic weather to talk about for the week ahead, with the potential for storms and heavy rain, so let’s get right to it.

Today

Conditions will be fairly pleasant for Houston today, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low 80s. The only blemish will come from gusty southerly winds, bringing moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico, and blowing up to about 20mph. Lows will again be very warm for March tonight, only falling to around 70 degrees for most of the region.

Wednesday

As we’ve been discussing, a potent upper-level storm system will sweep across the central and southern United States on Tuesday and Wednesday, generating enough lift and instability to produce some potentially severe weather. Timing remains a little unclear, but right now storm development in Houston seems most likely during the late morning or early afternoon, and running through the evening hours on Wednesday. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center favors the northern half of the metro area as most likely to see development.

See full post

After a mild Saturday and Sunday—a storm system that raked Oklahoma and northern Texas Sunday evening stayed to the north of Houston during the overnight hours—we may see more storms later this week.

Monday

It’s a warm start to the day, with low temperatures only falling to about 70 degrees. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies today, highs will probably climb into the low- to mid-80s this afternoon. Some lower pressure in the atmosphere may provide for a chance of rain showers later this afternoon, but any accumulations should be slight, and I think shower development will be pretty spotty.

Tuesday

Skies clear some, and we’ll again see highs in the low- to mid-80s. The dominant feature Tuesday will be southerly winds, gusting to 20 mph or above. This will herald rising moisture levels, and a good chance of rain on Wednesday.

Wednesday

In combination with an upper-level disturbance, rising moisture levels will combine to produce a healthy chance of rain and the possibility of severe weather on Wednesday. While the instability in the atmosphere looks marginal for tornado formation, we can’t rule them out, along with the possibility of damaging winds and hail.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by an anonymous donor)

The storms should be fairly progressive, continuing to move from west to east, so I’m not too concerned about the potential for flooding—I think most areas will see less than 1 inch of rain. But some locally heavy rainfall is definitely a possibility, like we saw Friday night in parts of Houston.

Thursday and Friday

Some light rain may linger into Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, but the upper-level low will also usher a cool front through the area, bringing some relief from the humidity. There’s some question as to how much cooler it will get, but for now I’ll peg highs to end the week at about 80 degrees, with a chance for most of the region to see nighttime temperatures in the 50s on Thursday, and especially Friday, morning.

Next weekend

By Saturday—or more likely Sunday—healthy rain chances return to the forecast. Along with high temperatures around 80 degrees next weekend, we’re going to have to consider the possibility of some rain showers, as the region may pick up another inch or so between Saturday afternoon and Monday. Precise timing and amounts are still hazy this far out, however.

Posted at 6:55am CT on Monday by Eric

 

Friday night’s storms were pretty dramatic in terms of thunder and lightning for some areas of Houston, including rodeo goers. I’ll admit that I didn’t think the capping inversion would break that dramatically, but it did, allowing some scattered, but severe thunderstorms to form. There were a few pockets of heavy rain, as well, with some parts of south Houston and Clear Lake picking up 2.5 inches of rain.

The good news is that the cool front associated with the upper-level low pressure system has moved to the coast, and should move offshore shortly after noon. For Houston, then, the rain is over and we should see a couple of mostly sunny days this weekend, with high temperatures in the low 80s.

I’m not ready to 100 percent rule out the chances of some stray showers Sunday night, but I think for the most part we’re going to see pleasant weather from now through about Tuesday, with continuing mostly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s. A chance of storms returns to the forecast on Wednesday, perhaps later in the day. But whereas the dynamics for severe weather and some heavy rain in Houston once appeared to be pretty favorable next Wednesday, for now I think the threat of these is diminishing a bit. We’ll be back with a full update on Monday.

Posted at 11:45am CT on Saturday by Eric