For most of us running the upcoming Houston marathon on January 15th we had our last, semi-long run this past weekend, and it’s time to taper down to the main event. We’ve trained. We’ve worked hard. And now we’re at the mercy of Mother Nature. So let’s discuss what’s in store.
When it comes to forecasting weather conditions nearly two weeks out it’s important to remember that forecast models have limited accuracy after about 10 days. Perhaps the best way to gauge conditions from this far out is to look at the ensemble runs of global forecast models. That is, the GFS and European models are each run about 50 different times with slightly different starting conditions. This gives a range of outcomes, and from looking at all of these ensemble runs we can get some probabilities on conditions.
Houston welcomed the New Year with some severe thunderstorms moving through the area on Monday morning. Although some embedded storms were quite heavy, as they moved quickly there was little time for floodwaters to accumulate. The primary threat came from winds, with a few gusts reaching 60 mph to the north of Interstate 10. An additional line of storms will move through before 10am CT, but then we’re going to clear out. A couple of cool fronts will bring temperatures down this week, but there’s still a fair amount of uncertainty about how much colder conditions will get this weekend.
Today
After the storms clear out winds should pick up out of the west, bringing some drier air into the region and allowing overnight lows to slide down into the 50s—lower 50s up north and upper-50s closer to the coast. Before that happens a sunny afternoon should allow highs to reach near 80 degrees, however.
Tuesday
A rather pleasant day. Humidity levels will be lower with more westerly winds, and highs should climb into the 70s under mostly sunny skies. A cool front will arrive around sunset, give or take a few hours, and it should be a dry passage. This should push overnight lows into the upper 40s for most of Houston.
Wednesday and Thursday
Conditions will feel more winter-like with northwesterly winds. Under partly to mostly sunny skies expect highs of around 60 degrees, with lows in the 40s.
Happy New Year! As expected, New Year’s Eve brought a lot of moisture into the Houston region, but the rain moved out before the beginning of evening festivities during the evening, leaving behind a foggy, humid, and misty day to start 2017. More rainfall is on the way, however, with the potential for some severe weather late tonight and Monday morning.
Dewpoint temperatures this morning are in the 50s, and although conditions are calm at the surface, about a mile up into the atmosphere south-southwesterly winds will be increasing today, rising to about 50 mph in the lower levels of the atmosphere by Monday morning. This will both bring lots of moisture and shear into the area late tonight and on Monday—setting the stage for some severe weather. The most likely time for storms will occur from after shortly after midnight tonight through noon Monday, with storms moving fairly rapidly from west-to-east.
Storm outlook for Texas on Sunday and Monday morning. (NOAA)
The primary threat will come from severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, hail and potentially a few tornadoes. Better chances for storms and higher rain accumulations will come north of I-10, where some areas may see 1 inch or more of precipitation.
As storms move out of the area by late Monday morning, skies will clear out and highs should rise to nearly 80 degrees. Cooler, drier air will arrive by Monday night, with a reinforcing shot of colder air later this week. How cold temperatures get by Friday or Saturday morning is not entirely clear, but forecast models have backed off the idea of an Arctic surge driving lows into the 20s.
We’ll update tomorrow morning with a comprehensive look at the week ahead, and out first forecast for the 2017 Houston Marathon.
Unsettled weather is going to be the story of the next several days. We have a lot to discuss, so let’s break it down.
Today & Weekend
No big issues for Friday, as we’ll see clouds thicken and seasonably cool temperatures. There could be a sprinkle later today, but steadier light rain won’t begin to break out until probably after Midnight. Rain may become steady to heavy at times on Saturday morning. Here’s the good news though: Rain will likely end early to mid afternoon Saturday, and the bulk of New Year’s Eve night will be dry. If you have outdoor plans, don’t cancel them, but I encourage you to follow the forecast just to be safe.
We’ll ring in 2017 the same way we spent much of 2016: Milder than usual and a bit damp.
While there will continue to be a slight chance of showers Sunday, I think the majority of the day will be dry. It will continue to be mild, with temps in the 70s.
For Monday, the weather gets a little more interesting. A vigorous upper level disturbance will arrive, bringing renewed showers and thunderstorms. There are a lot of details that are TBD with this one, but it could potentially produce some strong to severe thunderstorms, especially north of I-10. We’ll keep you posted if this becomes more than just a “potential.”
