Posted by Matt Lanza at 7:48 AM
This winter has been one warm but wobbly roller coaster ride. We’ve had both the coldest weather in a few years and the most persistent warm weather in a number of years. In fact, Wednesday and Thursday represent the first time since 2002 and only the 16th time on record that Houston has officially recorded two consecutive days of 80° or warmer in January. We’ve hit 80° a lot of times in January, but usually not for more than a day. After last weekend’s cold and now with this warm weather, some are probably wondering if winter is over. Doubtful. Read on.
Today and Saturday
We have a few showers around this morning, especially north of Houston.
Radar as of 6:30 AM shows scattered showers lifting north of Houston. (GRLevel3)
As the day goes on, don’t be shocked if you see a shower or sprinkle or two around in your travels.
We will continue with a very warm pattern the next few days. Though it probably won’t hit 80 again today and tomorrow, it will come close. We’ll see mid to upper 70s today and mid 70s tomorrow. Both days will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies. The slight chance of a stray shower or some sprinkles continues Saturday also. I do expect ongoing fog near the coast to be pretty persistent through the period.
For the Texans up in Foxborough on Saturday evening, weather shouldn’t be a huge factor, though it will be quite cold. Kickoff temps will be in the mid 20s, falling into the low 20s. Winds should thankfully be light.
(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month) Read More…
Posted by Eric Berger at 1:05 PM
Having turned 42 this year I decided to try and run a marathon for the first time. Perhaps it was a way to push back against father time. Certainly registering for the Houston Marathon proved a cheaper antidote to a mid-life crisis than buying a fancy convertible.
As I trained this fall I soon discovered the importance of weather in distance running, and most critically humidity. Cold and dry weather made running 10 or even 15 miles a breeze. (Well, sort of.) But even in December, when dewpoints were in the upper 60s, running five miles was pure misery. So I feel you when it comes to weather on January 17.
We’re still 19 days from the Houston marathon, and the major global forecast models only run out to 16 days. Truth be told, they have very little accuracy after about 10 days, so we’re still more than a week away from what might be considered a “moderately” accurate forecast for the marathon. With that said we can draw some inferences from seasonal weather models, which I will now do.
NOAA makes monthly forecasts, and right now its outlook for January calls for a slightly better chance, than average, for colder-than-normal temperatures in Houston. But this isn’t terribly helpful because the first half of January could be freezing cold, and the second half somewhat warmer than normal. When we’re out there sweating our butts off on the morning of the Houston marathon, we won’t care if it was 25 degrees the week before.
Fortunately some seasonal modeling has higher resolutions than this. One of the models is NOAA’s Climate Forecast System (v2) which makes temperature predictions for 5-day chunks. Here’s its latest forecast for the period of January 16 through January 21st. Reading the map below, it shows temperatures a good 6 to 7 degrees F above normal for Houston.