Posted by Eric Berger at 3:59 PM
Yes, Houston set a record high temperature for today, with the mercury hitting 84 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. And yes, a cold front is now working its way into Houston that will provide some relief from the heat and humidity for the rest of this week. But that is not what I’m talking about. For this post I am referring to actual winter, as in…
Prepare yourself for the the memes, because they’re coming along with what appears to be this season’s first real Arctic front in about eight or nine days. Houston might even record its first freeze of the season, but there remains a fair about of uncertainty regarding that.
First freeze, when?
Let’s start with a bit of climatology. The following graphic shows when, historically, Houston can typically expect to record their first 32-degree or lower temperature of the season.
Houston first freeze climatology. (Brian Brettschneider)
Posted by Matt Lanza at 7:33 AM
Eric touched on the flooding issues for our friends to the east in the Sabine River basin yesterday. Check that post and visit the NWS Lake Charles website for the latest. Locally, here are the latest flood gauge levels and forecasts around Houston.
We got away with a mostly quiet Thursday. Judging by the weather model trends, today will hopefully have a similar outcome.
The upper low over Mexico the last couple days is projected to end up over South Central Texas this afternoon. That means we are slowly drawing closer to the end of this frustrating weather pattern.
Upper level low moves over South Texas this afternoon and evening. (Weather Bell)
There will still be a few spokes of energy pivoting around the upper low today, so we will still carry a chance of showers or a thunderstorm throughout the day (showers this morning are popping up west of Houston already). But the heaviest storms will be in Eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. There will also likely be areas of showers/storms on the periphery of the upper low in interior Texas (basically north, west, and south of us). That puts us in between. So I’ll put an optimistic spin on things and say, “Yes, a chance of showers or storms through the day today, but I will lean toward the bulk of the day not being too bad.” We’ll see if that works out. Read More…
Posted by Eric Berger at 8:03 AM
Good morning. I hope everyone had a great weekend. This morning we’ll look ahead to spring-like weather and I’l also discuss freeze possibilities for the rest of this winter.
There will be a slight chance of light to moderate rain this morning and into the early afternoon hours as a cold front approaches and moves through the region. I’m not expecting significant accumulations of rain and any showers should be fairly brief. Highs today will be in the mid-70s and winds could be gusty this afternoon as the front moves through.
We’ll see three splendid and sunny spring-time days highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. The air will be generally dry so it won’t feel particularly humid out. Enjoy the outdoors!
Conditions are even a bit warmer, with highs near 80 degrees, and lows around 60, under mostly sunny skies.
Posted by Eric Berger at 3:59 PM
As expected, Houston today has so far only seen scattered light to moderate rain showers. However during the next few hours heavier storms are going to begin rotating into the region.
Radar snapshot at 3:45 p.m. shows somewhat stronger storms approaching Houston. (Intellicast)
This won’t be the main event, but it’s going to soften up our soils for what should be considerably stronger storms later tonight.
Some of the latest forecast modeling continues to suggest the onset of this heavier rain, with rainfall rates of perhaps 3 inches an hour or higher, around 8 or 9 p.m. this evening. Such storms will have the potential to flood streets quickly.
Much of the latest modeling also indicates the very heaviest rains — locations where 10 or more inches might fall tonight — will come along the coast, from Matagorda to Galveston to Chambers and Jefferson counties. That doesn’t rule out inland counties, including Harris County, from such extremes, but that seems to be the way models are trending.
During the last few hours we have also seen favorable conditions for funnel cloud development, and most of the southern half of the Houston metro area is under a tornado watch until 10 p.m. tonight.
I’ll have a comprehensive update on the storms at 7 p.m. tonight.
Posted at 4:05 p.m. CT