Posted by Eric Berger at 12:36 AM
Steady, moderate to heavy rain showers are continuing to fall across the Houston metro area tonight. But even the most intense showers are only producing rain at a rate of about 1.25 inches an hour. That is within the capacity of most Houston roadways and bayous to handle.
Emphasis on “most.” During the last hour some of the heaviest rain has fallen in central Houston, where areas like White Oak Bayou at Heights Boulevard has risen to within about 2.5 feet of the top of its banks. The bayou is likely to stray beyond its banks later this morning. A number of downtown streets may flood early Sunday morning.
White Oak Bayou at Heights Boulevard. (HCOEM)
It’s also true that there are already more than two dozen roadway closures in the region due to high water. But these are, for the most part, temporary closures of roads that often flood during heavy rains.
The reality is that this storm appeared capable of producing rainfall rates of 3 or even 4 inches per hour, which we have not seen so far today, nor do we seem likely to see on Sunday. This has allowed the region’s bayous to so far largely contain the heavy rain. Read More…
Posted by Eric Berger at 7:56 AM
The mountainous terrain of Mexico has shredded the once incredibly powerful Hurricane Patricia, and the system is now a tropical storm as it races northeast toward its soggy destiny with Texas. Patricia will combine with a slow moving cool front and ample Gulf moisture to create a potentially dangerous situation tonight in the greater Houston area.
Forecast models continue to predict an extreme rainfall event for the Lone Star State, and it appears increasingly likely the heaviest precipitation today and Sunday will come along the upper Texas coast. To start with, here’s the latest precipitation forecast from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, essentially the best estimates from their meteorologists assessing all of the models for rain between this morning and the end of the event on Sunday night:
The first thing you’ll probably notice is a staggering 11-inch bullseye over Galveston County and Galveston Bay. This indicates the kind of very, very heavy rain this system and its associated tropical air mass are capable of. Read More…