Tag: tropics

Scattered storms set for Father’s Day in Houston

Posted by Matt Lanza at 9:00 AM

Good morning, and happy Father’s Day to those celebrating today. For the most part, the forecast is on track as we’ve been describing it for several days now, but there are a couple things to keep tabs on. And if your travels will take you well south of the area, more toward Corpus Christi, you’ll want to keep a closer eye on the weather. Let’s jump in.

Quick Summary

Here are a few bullet points with the main takeaways that we want to convey today.

  • Scattered storms will develop today for much of the area with locally heavy downpours. Probably not a total washout, but you’ll dodge raindrops.
  • Heavier rains likely tonight and Monday, particularly southeast of downtown Houston. Areas of street flooding will be possible in heavier downpours.
  • Heaviest rain chances should move off to our southwest for midweek, but rain chances stay elevated in and around Houston.
  • Total rainfall of two to four or five inches will be the average across the entire area through midweek. There will be smaller, isolated pockets that see higher amounts upwards of seven, eight, or nine inches, most likely closer to the Bay Area or Galveston.

Now

As of about 8-8:30 AM Sunday, the Houston area is all quiet. We have a few isolated showers, mainly south and east of downtown Houston. And for much of this morning, we’ll be fine with just a couple downpours.

A radar loop early Sunday morning shows just some sporadic showers, with some heavier rain offshore of Louisiana. (College of DuPage)

Meanwhile, looking at a bigger picture view of things, satellite this morning shows our disorganized disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico now. Heavier thunderstorms are occurring well offshore. This is what we’re watching for tonight and Monday.

More organized thunderstorms (not an organized tropical disturbance) are offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. Those should arrive in our area later tonight and Monday. (Tropical Tidbits)

In terms of tropical development, the National Hurricane Center continues to carry a token 20% chance over the next 48+ hours. That’s a fair assessment, and we feel that impacts to our area will be similar regardless of if this thing meets technical definitions or not within the next couple days.

Rest of Sunday

So what can we expect for the rest of today? Well, as this disturbance creeps toward Texas, expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to pop up late this morning and afternoon across most of the area. I’m not going to classify Father’s Day afternoon as a complete washout, but you will likely be dodging raindrops at least once, if not a few times this afternoon. So if you are planning anything outdoors, have a backup plan. Most of the area will see a couple tenths to maybe a half inch of rainfall. Some will see less, and some may see in excess of one or two inches where rains are most persistent. Today’s rainfall will be a nuisance more than anything for most folks.

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Answering Houston’s weekend rain questions

Posted by Matt Lanza at 6:12 AM

Today, we’ll walk you through the forecast once more. Toward the end, I have tried to ask and answer the most common questions folks would have about the upcoming rain event this weekend. I think you’ll find most of your answers there.

Today through Friday

No changes to the forecast the next few days. Expect more partly to mostly sunny conditions. High temperatures will peak in the low- to mid-90s. Yes, a few showers or a thunderstorm will be possible on each day, but consider yourself lucky if you receive one. Most of us should remain dry.

Saturday

One of the changes today is that Saturday now looks like our transition day instead of Friday. Precipitable water values, which measure the availability of moisture in the atmosphere, go from about 1.5 inches on Friday to 1.9 inches on Saturday. What does this mean in layman’s terms? It means rain chances should go up a notch. As of right now, Saturday’s rain and storm coverage shouldn’t be terribly significant, but it will be more than we’ve seen lately. Locally heavy downpours could occur Saturday as well. With more clouds and rain, temperatures will ease back a bit, and we may not even hit 90 degrees for a change on Saturday.

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A lot going on in weather, so let’s hop to it.

Today through Thursday

Pretty status quo weather the next few days. Expect partly to, at times, mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances will tick up each day just a little bit. Expect maybe just one or two showers today, then perhaps three or four showers tomorrow. You get the idea. Thursday will be the best rain chances of the next three days, but even that should only result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon as it stands right now.

Friday

Friday appears to be our transition day from the pattern we’ve had most of summer so far to the higher moisture and rain chance pattern, influenced heavily by what happens in the Gulf. Expect highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees with a smattering of afternoon thunderstorms in spots, though still very hit or miss.

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July-like weather continues much of this week

Posted by Matt Lanza at 6:23 AM

Back to back mid-90s this weekend, though many of us saw showers on Saturday at least. This pattern will continue much of this week before we watch the tropics later in the week from the Gulf. Let’s dive in.

Today through Wednesday

I don’t see a ton of day to day differences between today, tomorrow, and Wednesday for most of the Houston region. Models are mostly not excited about rain chances, but I do think with daily sea breezes kicking up off the Gulf, we should see at least a smattering of a few showers in parts of the area each of the upcoming days. We’ll characterize it as: Most of the time & area will be dry, but if you’re lucky, you may see some showers once or twice through Wednesday.

The NWS Houston rainfall forecast through Wednesday evening is mostly blank. While some of us will see a shower or two, most of us will remain dry. (NWS)

We have a fair bit of cloud cover around this morning, so we’ll call it partly sunny today and a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures will be pretty steady. Expect average high temperatures in the mid-90s (93-96 on average) with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Basically, what’s normal for mid- to late-July.

Thursday & Friday

The forecast beginning Thursday gets a little muddier because of the possible tropical wave in the Gulf (which I discuss in more detail below). But, in general, expect an uptick in atmospheric moisture Thursday afternoon, with a slightly better chance of showers. That continues into Friday. Again, this is nothing too well organized, but rather scattered showers or a chance of storms each afternoon, perhaps at a greater coverage than Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures may back down a couple degrees here with higher rain chances, so we’ll call it low-90s.

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