Winter is coming to Houston. No really, it is.

Most of us remember last winter, right? November was 4.4 degrees above normal, and then came December. While the month had a couple of decent fronts, the second half had a run of extremely warm days and nights, including 80 degrees on Christmas and an overnight low of 71 degrees on Christmas night. Here’s what that looked like:

December, 2016, high and low temperatures. (NOAA)

Temperatures this November have averaged about 5 degrees above normal, too, a lot like last year. But I’m willing to bet that December won’t see a repeat. Indeed, as I’ll discuss below, there are good reasons to think that a good chunk of December will see cooler than normal temperatures.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s today, and humidity levels will rise a bit. However, a weak cool front will arrive on Wednesday morning to put a lid of temperatures for the rest of the week. This front could spur a few showers near or along the coast, but for the most part we won’t see any precipitation. Highs Wednesday should be in the mid-70s with continued sunshine.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

Our gorgeous, fall-like weather continues, with highs in the low to mid-70s, overnight lows in the 50s, and drier air. Really, these will be great days.

Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday

Temperatures will begin to warm some on Sunday, and the first couple of days next week could see highs near about 80 degrees. Lows should creep back up into the mid-60s, too. However, this warmer-than-normal weather is not going to last for long.

Wednesday and beyond

At some point next week, perhaps Tuesday, or maybe Wednesday, our weather pattern is going to shift as a trough of low pressure moves down into the eastern United States. Essentially, this is going to facilitate the movement of cooler, and drier air into most of the country east of the Rocky Mountains for much of December—and this includes Houston. At a minimum, we’re probably looking at about a week of high temperatures in the upper 50s or low 60s, with lows in the 40s.

The 16-day forecast from the GFS model shows a significant change in temperatures next week. Other models do too. (Weather Bell)

My guess is that the cooler weather, generally, will persist for most of the month. In other words, winter is really coming.

24 thoughts on “Winter is coming to Houston. No really, it is.

  1. J

    Why anyone would want to live in pooston is beyond belief. It still won’t be cold enough to kill the year round disease carrying mosquitoes! Get used to being fogged.

    1. Chuck

      One advantage — we never have to “shovel winter”

      But I do tell anyone moving to the area to move into a planned community where the elevation is above the 500 year flood zone and where their house is surrounded by other houses. Plus, make 2 “friends” really fast — a good “bug guy” and a good “air conditioning guy”

  2. Mike Klug

    Wait, J – are you trolling on the Space City Weather site with puns my 6 year old would like? Yikes.

    Sincerely,
    Long-time “Pooston” Resident

    1. J

      Yep. Just like how I tell my 6 year old to stay out of the water because there’s poop in it all along the taxes coast. If massive sprawl and chemicals everywhere are good to you, then by all means stay in the Republican state with the second highest property taxes in the nation.

      1. Chuck

        J,

        Your insults don’t work. By the way, we have no state income tax, so anyone with half a brain would realize the property taxes might be a bit higher than elsewhere. Oh, and the state’s “rainy day fund” has over $12 billion in it right now. We use zero base budgeting to balance the state’s budget. Does YOUR state enjoy that level of fiscal responsibility?

        1. Mac

          Typical leftist troll. Doesn’t put his entire name, uses his keyboard to insult and had to throw the “R” word in there when all major Texas cities are democrat run, for the most part. Take a gander at the reps in Houston, “J” – they aren’t Republican. Now myself, I speak against both parties because they spend our hard-earned tax dollars like drunken sailors, but to suggest Houston or the coast is a dump as a result of Republicans shows just how much this “J” guy or girl is lacking in knowledge. What a child. Projection is something they spew 24/7. Run to another site where people are less intelligent. Houston is a great city, even if it’s run by over-spending democrats.

          1. KeithInHouston

            Mac, I find your response highly offensive. To drunken sailors that is, comparing them to politicians. 🙂

    2. Chuck

      Mike-

      Well said! I get a hearty laugh when other areas of the country are digging out of massive snow storms. I used to live in several of those places, don’t miss it at all. I can deal with the humidity (good A/C guy) and mosquitos (good bug guy), but apparently J can’t. Oh well.

      1. J

        I get a hearty laugh when you’re getting gassed by mosquito chemicals! Oh, and you have fire ant poison leeching into your drinking water. Hey, but with less regulations maybe you’ll die of cancer!

        1. Troy

          What an idiot! I seriously cannot imagine having nothing better to do with my time than to troll a weather website for a city that I say I can’t stand. That’s some life you must have their buddy!

  3. Vicky Mizell

    As a Native Houstonian of 63 years I have really enjoyed the weather here for the past week. I feel like I just received an early Christmas present with this forecast! Thanks Eric! BTW, “J”– didn’t your Moma teach you that if you don’t have anything nice to say, then don’t say anything at all? Houstonians are a proud, tough breed who suffer thru the heat, mosquitoes and occasional hurricane with sweat and grace, and in return are rewarded with six months of mild, pleasant weather every year!

  4. Blackhawks Fan

    If we do get colder air moving down here then Three Cheers for Canada!

    (OK, the song is “Three Cheers for Ottawa”, but at least Ottawa is in Canada.)

  5. Conor

    I guess Space City Weather has officially arrived as a big time website as the trolls (or in this case, troll) have also arrived. Thanks Matt and Eric for all that you do for us.

  6. Steve B

    Yea! Winter is coming. Maybe I can get to wear some of the sweaters and jackets that are stored away all year. Unlike most Houstonians, I do own a coat or three, but mostly use them in Colorado! Just promise me we won’t get two days of 20 F weather. That was really hard on my plants, just trying to keep them alive.

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