Month: December 2023

Good morning. I hope everyone had a pleasant Christmas weekend, and you’re enjoying the holiday season. Mother Nature certainly has gotten into the spirit, with mostly sunny skies and seasonally chilly weather. We’re going to see continued cool weather throughout this week, with the slight possibility of a freeze later this week. I’ll talk a bit more about that below. Also, due to holiday travel, I wanted you to know that tomorrow’s post may be a bit late. Thanks for understanding.

As for a freeze, Houston has not recorded one this calendar year at its official weather monitoring station, Bush Intercontinental Airport. Our current streak of daily minimum temperatures above freezing is 364, dating back to December 26 of last year. Houston has gone a full calendar year without a freeze before, but it’s quite rare. It happened once in the 1930s, and once in the 1950s. The city’s longest streak of days with a minimum temperature above freezing, 774 days, was finally snapped on March 8, 1932. The second longest streak is 396 days, ending on January 14, 1957. Our current streak ranks as the seventh longest on record. There’s maybe a one-in-three chance we snap it this week, I’d say.

Tuesday

Today should be another day with highs in the upper 50s to 60 degrees, with a light northerly wind. On Monday we saw some lingering clouds, due to a frothy jet stream high above, and we may see some more today. With partly cloudy skies tonight, look for lows to drop into the low 40s for much of Houston again.

Wednesday

I expect a fully sunny day, with highs in the low 60s. Winds will generally be light, out of the northwest. There is plenty of cold air aloft in the atmosphere, and that should help cool down temperatures on Wednesday night into the upper 30s for much of the metro area, with cooler conditions further inland, and warmer ones near the coast.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the week looks downright chilly as a reinforcing front comes through. Both days should see highs in the 50s, with sunny skies. The real question comes at night, when there’s the possibility of a light freeze in the Houston metro area, and a bit of a harder freeze further inland. It is going to be a close call. Right now I’d go with lows on both nights of about 35 degrees in the urban center of Houston, with colder conditions for outlying areas. If you’re in areas such as Katy or The Woodlands, I’d definitely plan on the distinct possibility of a freeze. Areas closer to the coast should stay warmer. Needless to say, we’ll continue refining the forecast this week.

Saturday, New Year’s Eve, and New Year’s Day

By the holiday weekend we should be warming up, with a fair amount of sunshine. Saturday should be sunny, with highs in the low 60s. Lows on Sunday morning will drop only into the 40s. Daytime temperatures on New Year’s Eve will rise to about 70 degrees, give or take, with partly sunny skies. The next front may arrive late on New Year’s Eve or early on New Year’s Day, and its timing will in part determine our weather for the holiday. Fortunately, it doesn’t look like the frontal passage will be too messy. So right now I’d expect temperatures in the 50s to ring in the new year. Although we cannot entirely rule out some rain with the front, overall chances are fairly low, so I’m cautiously optimistic about holiday celebrations.

As for the start of the new year, the forecast starts to get fuzzy, but I expect we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds with temperatures in the 60s. It will be cool, but probably not cold. The atmosphere starts to get a little more active next week, so by Tuesday or Wednesday we should start to see our next really decent shot of rainfall.

Good morning. I sincerely hope this holiday weekend finds you healthy, happy, and well. This Saturday morning weather update is intended to get you up to speed on what to expect for now through Christmas Day.

Saturday

We’re starting the morning out with mild conditions—temperatures in the 60s, moderate humidity, and lots of cloud cover. We’re not going to see much, if any sunshine today, and the clouds will help corral high temperatures to around 70 degrees. I also think we’ll remain rain free for most of today, with only the potential for some scattered, light showers through the afternoon hours.

However, by late this afternoon or by around sunset, we should see the development of showers and thunderstorms to the south and southwest of Houston, pushing into the metro area. This may put a damper on outdoor activities this evening. The bulk of this system should move through Houston by the early morning hours of Sunday.

After that? We may see a break until a second round of storms on Sunday. I think this is the most likely scenario for inland areas. However, areas closer to the coast and south of Interstate 10 may see additional showers and thunderstorms developing through Sunday morning. Lows tonight will only drop into the low 60s for most.

Christmas Eve

As noted above we’re going to continue to see the potential for scattered showers on Sunday morning, with the possibility of thunderstorms. By mid- or late-morning we should see a more organized system—probably a line of showers, but maybe just a congealed mass—move in from the west ahead of the cold front. These showers will work their way through Houston during the afternoon hours before finally clearing to the east by around sunset, give or take a couple of hours. I don’t anticipate significant flooding, and at this time we’re not going to declare a Stage 1 flood alert. However, conditions during the daytime on Sunday will at times be messy, and you’ll need to be wary of the potential for thunderstorms. Take care if you’re going to be out and about. Most locations will pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, but there is the potential for isolated areas to see greater totals.

Temperature wise, Christmas Eve will feel fairly muggy, with highs around 70 degrees. Lows, in the wake of the front, will drop into the 50s overnight.

Christmas Day and beyond

Christmas Day, itself, brings no concerns about severe weather. We’re going to see mostly sunny skies, with highs perhaps holding in the upper 50s. With a northerly breeze it will feel rather brisk. Lows on Christmas night will fall down to around 40 in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Most of next week looks sunny and cold, with highs in the 50s to maybe 60 degrees, and lows in the 30s and 40s. It’s probably not going to freeze in the Houston metro area, but winter is definitely going to stick around for awhile.

Unless the precipitation forecast takes a turn for the worst—and yes, I’ll be watching—this will be our last update until Tuesday, December 26. I hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas and a happy holiday season.

Good morning. Sorry for the late update this morning, but sometimes life intervenes. Fortunately, the forecast remains more or less on track. The region will enter a wetter period now through Sunday, with some heavy rainfall possible on Christmas Eve ahead of a cold front. After the front moves through we should see clear and much cooler weather for Christmas Day and the holiday weekend leading up to New Year’s Eve.

One quick programming note: Given the dynamic weather possible on Sunday, expect at least one update this weekend to make sure you’re on top of the forecast.

Friday

Today should be fine for any last-minute shopping or other activities related to the holiday weekend. Yes, we could see some (mostly) light showers, but I don’t think they’ll be anything more than a nuisance. Skies will, otherwise, be gray with high temperatures reaching about 70 degrees or a tick higher. Winds will be light, from the east. Lows tonight will only drop into the low 60s, for the most part. As we saw some fog this morning, you can probably expect more of the same on Saturday morning.

Saturday

Saturday will be similar to Friday with one exception: Rain showers will be a little more widespread, with a better chance at some moderate rainfall. I still don’t expect anything too heavy, as that’s more likely to occur on Christmas Eve. Otherwise it will be another soupy day, with highs in the vicinity of 70 degrees, and a not very cool night in the low 60s.

Sunday

You’ll probably have noticed that it feels more humid outside this morning. Well, after a couple of days of an easterly breeze we’re going to see a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, and that’s a starter dough for rainfall. By Sunday we’ll add in a forcing function in the form of an advancing front. In terms of timing, I expect most of the rain to occur during the midday or early afternoon hours, as a line of storms advances from west to east across the region. Most of us should pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain, but there could be higher isolated totals that lead to some brief street flooding. Right now the overall dynamics in the atmosphere don’t favor severe weather, but I’m keeping tabs on that. Hopefully this mess will clear out by the late afternoon or evening. Lows on Sunday night will drop to around 50 degrees.

Christmas Day

The holiday should be bright and sunny, with highs of perhaps 60 degrees. Winds will be a bit gusty, from the north, perhaps at 20 to 25 mph. So that will add a bit of chill to the air. Lows on Monday night drop into the low 40s for most.

Next week

We’re looking at fairly typical winter weather, with mostly sunny skies, highs perhaps in the low 60s, and nights generally in the 30s and 40s. It will be a good time to wear those sweaters you got for Christmas. As for New Year’s Eve, it’s very early. I can’t rule out some rain showers, but there’s no particularly strong signal for that. It does look chilly, however.

Good morning. We finally have clarity on the forecast for the Christmas holiday, and the short version is that this weekend looks messy, but Christmas Day should be partly sunny, dry, and seasonal with highs in the 60s. Before that, however, we’re likely to see a wet weekend with widespread accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, and even higher isolated totals.

Thursday

Temperatures have only fallen to 60 degrees this morning, and this will probably be the ‘coldest’ we get until after the next front rolls through on Christmas Eve. This will also be the last day we can be reasonably confident that it won’t rain until Christmas Day. Skies will be mostly cloudy, however, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Winds will be out of the east at around 10 mph, with higher gusts. I can’t entirely rule out some very light showers today, but most of us should stay dry. That could change this evening, and during the overnight hours, when some light, misty rain will be a bit more likely. Lows drop to around 60 degrees again in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Friday and Saturday

These will be similar days, with highs of around 70 degrees, and decently high humidity. Both days will be cloudy with rain chances on the order of 50 to 70 percent. The overall dynamics for both days don’t favor severe weather, so we’re likely looking at some on-and-off, mostly light to moderate rain showers. If you’re going to be out and about, conditions should be fine, just know there may well be some nuisance showers.

Christmas Eve

The story is a little bit different for Sunday. As a front approaches we’re going to see atmospheric lift, which spells R-A-I-N given the ample moisture available in the atmosphere. Pretty much everyone is going to get some rain on Sunday, but the amounts will be variable, with some areas perhaps getting 0.5 to 1 inch, and others 3 to 5 inches. I think the latter totals will be fairly isolated, but the setup does favor some heavy rainfall.

Fortunately the conditions won’t be quite right for severe weather, so while there may be some thunderstorms, the odds of them turning intense—with damaging hail and winds—is fairly low. Highs on Christmas Eve will be about 70 degrees. I’m thinking we’ll see a frontal passage at some point during the evening hours, or so, with drier air moving in overnight behind the front. Once the front pushes in you can be pretty confident the rain showers are over.

Christmas Day

Depending on when the front goes through, most of us should be waking up to temperatures in the 50s, with clearing skies. Northerly winds will be gusting to about 20 mph, but it doesn’t look like one of those howling, wild blue norther fronts. Highs will be seasonable, in the mid-60s. Lows on Christmas night will drop into the 40s. So all in all, it should be a pleasant Christmas Day weather-wise. It’s just that getting there that is going to be kind of messy.

Next week

At this point it looks as though we’re going to remain in the 60s for all of next week, with cool nights in the 40s. Skies will be sunny, and winds reasonably light. If you’ve been pining for a stretch of winter, you’re in luck!