In brief: For the next week or 10 days there won’t be much change in our weather, with fairly warm days, and scattered rain chances. This is basically the rule for weather in Houston during the first half of the month.

September doing September things

Here’s what we know about September weather in Houston: It often disappoints. Temperatures this month are typically a bit cooler than August, but not dramatically so. Days are a bit shorter. And we’re basically in what seems like an interminable doctor’s waiting room hoping to hear ‘cold front’ called out by a nurse. So it will go over the next week or 10 days, with highs generally ranging from 90 degrees at the coast to 95 degrees inland, partly to mostly sunny skies, and scattered afternoon showers. And we will remain in wait for a cold front. Our first chance does come about 10 days from now, but it’s not sure thing by any means.

Wednesday

Our overall pattern is such that we’re not quite governed by high pressure, which lies to our west and east; but we’re also not exactly seeing disturbances fly by left and right. So we end up with a chance of showers each day, perhaps on the order of 30 to 50 percent. For areas south of Interstate 10 and closer to the coast, that chance is closer to the higher end, and for inland areas, it is closer to the lower end. Winds will be light for most of the day, but picking up to 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts during the afternoon. Nights remain stubbornly warm, in the upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday

Not much changes each day, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during the daytime. Temperatures for most locations will continue to top out in the lower 90s. In terms of rainfall accumulations through Friday, most of the area will likely pick up 0.25 to 1 inch, but there will likely be some bigger lottery winners.

Saturday and Sunday

Overall rain chances may drop back to around 30 percent this weekend, but there still will be enough weakness between high pressure systems to allow some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs remain in the lower half of the 90s for most of the area. You don’t have to ask about humidity, do you?

Next week

For much of next week, there’s just not a whole lot of change. Perhaps high pressure becomes a little more settled over us, in which case the likelihood of rain goes down a little bit. However, I still foresee the sea breeze producing at least some isolated to scattered activity each day. All of which brings us to the chances for a cool front late next week. I’m a little less optimistic today. Yesterday I probably would have put our odds at about 40 percent of seeing a front. Today I’m at 30 percent, which to be fair is not zero. But it’s also not a slam dunk. Welcome to the waiting room, y’all.

In brief: There’s a lot going on! In today’s post we discuss the lack of Atlantic hurricanes to date, and why that is so significant. Also, we look ahead to a week with some rather decent rain chances. And finally, is the season’s first cool front possible late next week?

No hurry for hurricanes

The Atlantic hurricane database stretches all the way back to 1851, but in years before satellite coverage it is likely some storms that remained at sea were missed. In 1944 aircraft reconnaissance of the Atlantic began, and in the 1966 we had the beginning of the satellite era to detect storms across the entire basin. So there are a lot of ways to slice and dice the Atlantic hurricane record.

Nevertheless this season does feel significant. While the upper Texas coast has had its share of tropical storms this season, most recently with Edouard, no Atlantic hurricanes have yet to form. (Edouard’s maximum sustained winds were measured at 60 mph, below the 74-mph threshold for a hurricane). Today is September 8, more than a month after the time when the first Atlantic hurricane typically forms.

Since the onset of aircraft reconnaissance in 1944, the latest date for the formation of the first hurricane in the Atlantic basin has been September 11, with Gustav in 2002; and Humberto in 2013. I am here to tell you, we are not going to see an Atlantic hurricane this year by or before September 11.

If we go back all the way to 1851, in which it is more probable that some storms were missed, we can push the “latest Atlantic hurricane” date back a little further. That came in 1941, with “Hurricane Two” forming on September 17 in the Gulf, and which later came ashore near Matagorda Bay with powerful 125 winds. Such a storm would be very destructive to the Houston region were it to develop today.

Anything, of course, can still happen in the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season. But for now El Niño has the main development region on lockdown, and to add insult a major plume of Saharan dust is moving off Africa this week, which will also suppress development. Given this pattern, anything that does form in the next 10 says it will likely be home-grown, in the sense that it forms fairly near the United States.

Anyway, I’m not saying the Atlantic won’t see a hurricane before September 17, but I am saying it is unlikely. I’ll go ahead and knock on some wood just in case.

Tuesday

Houston’s high temperature reached 98 degrees on Monday, and I think we’re going to see another fairly hot day today. Whether we can get back into the upper 90s will depend on rain chances. After calm conditions on Labor Day we’ll see better odds of rain for the rest of this week. As for today, I anticipate storms forming offshore and then moving inland early this afternoon, with daytime heating. Overall rain chances are probably only about 40 percent, but with the amount of moisture available where the showers and thunderstorms hit today they could quickly drop 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain. Overnight lows will be in the upper 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Each of these days should have partly sunny skies, with a healthy chance (~50 percent, daily) of showers and thunderstorms. Given the atmospheric moisture levels, locally heavy rainfall is possible, although flooding is not a major concern for now. With the potential for showers I think our daily high temperatures will take a step backward, probably into the low- to mid-90s for most of the region. Overall rain accumulations this week should be higher for areas south of I-10 than north of the freeway, but pretty much everyone should see some precipitation at some point. Nights remain warm and sultry.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring mostly sunny weather with highs generally in the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances may retreat a little bit, but I still think there will be a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers, primarily during the afternoon hours.

Next week

This pattern should, more or less, continue next week. The big question is whether we see our first front later next week, or over the weekend of September 18 to 20. There are a couple of caveats here. The front’s arrival is no sure thing, it’s probably about a 50-50 deal at this point and we often end up disappointed at this time of year. And secondly, it probably will not bring too much relief in terms of temperatures. But I don’t care. For the first time in months we can legitimately start to look for some fall-like weather, and I am here for it.

In brief: Happy Labor Day! This is just a short update due to the holiday, and in reality there’s not too much to say. After fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday, today should see less activity.

Labor Day

Although Tropical Storm Edouard largely missed the metro Houston area in terms of rainfall, an unsettled pattern in its wake has generally brought 1 to 3 inches since then. Much of this rain has come over the holiday weekend. The rain was welcome to be sure, but did it have to come when most people were off work and school?

For those seeking to do outdoor activities, some solace and sunshine should come today. Rain chances will drop back to around 20 or 30 percent for most of the region, with only areas near and along the coast seeing slightly better odds for precipitation. Skies, otherwise, should be mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s for most of the region. Winds will be light, from the south. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 70s for most of Houston area.

The rest of this week

Tuesday looks hot and sunny, whereas a surge of tropical moisture could bring some more widespread showers into the region later on Tuesday evening or Wednesday. The remainder of the week, and next weekend, should see mostly sunny days, highs in the low- to mid-90s, and low-ish afternoon rain chances along the sea breeze. It will feel very much like early to mid-September. We won’t see a cold front this week, but I’m not entirely ruling something out about 12 to 14 days from now as we get deeper into the month. More on that tomorrow.

Have a wonderful holiday and we’ll be back with a full report on Tuesday.

In brief: Houston’s storm pattern may tick up a little on Saturday as the Gulf opens the doors a little wider. But Sunday, Labor Day, and most of next week should feature very typical September weather for the Houston area.

Back to regularly scheduled summer in Houston, as we return to a more standard early September pattern of daily storm chances, moderate heat, and, of course, humidity. Let’s check in on how the region fared over the Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday period for rainfall.

If you were lucky, you saw a cooling downpour or two. If you weren’t, well, we apologize. But most of the area at least saw a little rain, and while that may not erode developing drought concerns, hopefully some additional rains fall the next few days. But also note how close it was to being a much, much different story.

Today

We’ve already got a number of showers peppering the radar this morning. Most gauges have only seen a few hundredths of an inch of rain, but some spots should see more over the next few hours. We may see a bit of a lull around late morning and then more scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Highs should still manage to make the lower 90s this afternoon.

Saturday

Tomorrow will be a slightly more interesting day on the storm chance front. Edouard’s remnant “spin” will shift southwest of the area toward South Texas, which should open up a slightly stronger “fetch” off the Gulf. This, coupled with some upper level impulses probably upgrades our coverage of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. If today is isolated to scattered, tomorrow is more like scattered to numerous in terms of coverage. Or that’s what I think looking at things this morning.

Any downpours will be capable of producing torrential rainfall, so watch for some localized street flooding. Highs may reach the low 90s, but if storms get going a little sooner, we may only get to around 90 degrees.

Sunday

Edouard’s remnants are gone gone on Sunday. This should allow us to dial back storm coverage a bit, back to the isolated to scattered bucket. Highs should be back in the low 90s.

Next week

I don’t foresee a ton of variability next week as it stands right now. Labor Day should be a lot like Sunday I think, with isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday look fairly similar. Each day should feature the requisite mixture of clouds and sun, with highs in the low to perhaps middle 90s.

The good news is that the tropics are on holiday right now, something I discussed over at The Eyewall last evening. Let’s keep it going.