In brief: A tropical low has developed in the northern Gulf, and it will move generally west toward Texas over the next couple of days. We assess what this means for the greater Houston region this week, which hopefully means some beneficial rains.

Over the last day or so we have seen a low pressure system in the northern Gulf slowly develop. Thunderstorms associated with the low, designated Invest 97L, have become better organized overnight, but so far surface pressures (another indication of organization) have yet to drop significantly. So we have, essentially, a tropical blob sitting out there 100 miles or so south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

With high pressure over the southern United States we can expect this tropical low to to generally move to the west or west-northwest over the next couple of days. This is likely to bring the system toward the upper Texas coast by midweek, which is to say somewhere probably between Galveston Bay and the Texas-Louisiana border. Of course, in the absence of a well-formed center, there remains some uncertainty in the track.

So something is coming toward the upper Texas coast, and it will likely reach land on Tuesday or Wednesday. Our baseline expectation is that this remains a tropical low pressure system or a depression, but there is a chance for development into a tropical storm. Surface waters are more than warm enough (sizzling actually) to support intensification, and wind shear is relatively low. So if the current system can develop some spin, it will have a chance to organize.

Should you be concerned? Not at this time. The system would be beneficial should it bring some much needed rainfall into the region on Tuesday or Wednesday, but these rains could just as easily fall to our east, over Beaumont or southwestern Louisiana. As for amounts, maybe 1 to 3 inches? It’s difficult to say with any confidence yet. Regarding winds and storm surge, we will keep an eye on things for you, especially with the tropical low so close to Texas.

More tomorrow.

In brief: Some of Houston saw rain yesterday. Many of you did not. At least the slight chance of rain will stick with us into next week. But aside from that and “less hot” temperatures, not much is changing here. Summer doldrums continue.

I borrowed from poet Mark Van Doren for our title today. Though the drought has not been that long, it has felt like it’s been a while. So who’s happy this morning? Some of you? None of you? Surely someone got rain yesterday. Indeed, showers and storms did push through parts of the area on Thursday.

The max totals in the area occurred just east of Magnolia, which was estimated to see north of 2 inches of rain. A gauge just north of IAH Airport saw nearly 1.5 inches of rain. It missed the airport gauge (which got a whopping 0.02″) by about 2 miles, just to give you a sense of the hit/miss nature of this stuff.

The good news is that rain chances aren’t quite finished, but the bad news is that they aren’t going to get a whole lot better either.

Today

An additional shower or thunderstorm may pop up this afternoon or evening in the area. It’s probably going to be a bit like yesterday in that many places won’t see rain but a few places will see some healthy downpours. We could also see the storms pulse deeper into the evening hours, sort of like yesterday also. Otherwise, it should be sunny and hot today with highs in the upper 90s. We’ve taken a little bit of edge off the heat at least.

Weekend

As an aside, it feels so odd to me that this weekend isn’t Labor Day weekend. But the calendar does what the calendar does. Regardless, it will still feel like August, with sun, clouds, at least a chance of a passing downpour, and highs in the mid to upper 90s.

Early next week

It looks like the weather will continue very steady state for the first half of the week. Expect sun, a few clouds, mid to upper 90s, and at least a slight shower chance. Rain chances may nudge up just a hair on Tuesday, but I wouldn’t go turning the sprinklers off at this point.

Later next week

I don’t really foresee a whole lot changing later next week. We seem sort of entrenched in this hot but not crazy hot, dry but not zero chance of rain situation. We really do need the rain though. Yesterday’s updated drought monitor report showed the Houston area going from near 0 drought to 43 percent drought coverage. That’s a huge leap over a week.

This can be classified as a bit of a “flash drought,” which tends to happen very fast later in summers that transition from wet to dry. To be honest, it’s kind of fortunate it has not been hotter this summer, but a late start to the summertime “death ridge” certainly helped matters. Of course, the question now is whether or not September ends up just miserable because of this. A question we’ll ponder in the days ahead. On the bright side, the tropics remain quiet. Check The Eyewall later for any updates.

In brief: We actually have some dynamic weather to talk about in today’s forecast! Due to a boundary moving in, the region will see some shower and thunderstorm chances. The most likely time frame for this is Thursday afternoon north of the city, and the evening hours in Houston and closer to the coast.

Rain, actually

It has been a long, hot, and mostly dry August but some real change is on the way. It’s still going to be sizzling today, with temperatures in the upper 90s. But after today most of the region will fall back into the mid-90s for awhile. And thanks to a stalling boundary, we are going to see a healthy chance of rain showers today in the greater Houston area. Not everyone is going to see showers or thunderstorms, but overall chances are probably on the order of 50 percent, which represents our highest likelihood of rain in weeks.

Thursday

With a check of the radar just before sunrise, we can see shower activity developing north of the Houston region, in areas such as College Station and Livingston. These showers should progress into Montgomery County over the next hour or two before stalling out. I don’t think they will get all the way to Harris County, at least for the most part.

We will see sunny skies during the middle of the day, and very hot conditions like we’ve experienced so far this week. However we should see another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, possibly initiating north of Interstate 10 and then moving down toward the coast through the evening hours. This time frame represents when most of the region should see its best chance of rainfall. Accumulations will vary widely, from no rain to some bullseyes of 1 or more inches. Showers should subside by or before midnight.

Friday

We should see a few more clouds on Friday, limiting highs to the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances will be lower, possibly in the 20 to 30 percent range.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring mostly sunny and (for late August) temperate conditions. Expect highs in the low- to mid-90s. The likelihood of rain showers is not zero, but it’s close. Overall this should be a pretty nice weekend for outdoor activities involving water.

Next week

At this point we should see a summer-like pattern next week, with high temperatures mostly in the mid-90s and a low-end potential for daily showers along the sea breeze. These are typical conditions for early September here.

In brief: After one more very hot and sunny day, a modest pattern change arrives in Houston. This will bring improved rain chances into the area on Thursday and Friday, along with slightly cooler daytime temperatures over the weekend.

Rain, actually?

Most of Houston has not recorded measurable rainfall in more than two weeks. Officially, the city has received just 0.21 inches this month. Thanks to earlier rains in June and July, the greater Houston region still remains out of drought conditions. However we are starting to see rapidly drying vegetation, and background conditions that support wildfires are increasing. All of this is to say, we could use some rain.

Over the next couple of days a weak and dying front will move into the greater Houston region. It is not going to bring any meaningful change in our humidity, but it will perturb the atmosphere enough to bring some decent rain chances on Thursday and Friday. Most of the region is unlikely to see too much rainfall, but a few locations could pick up 0.5 to 1 inch of rain, or even higher isolated totals. Next week should also see slightly better rain chances as well, so with some luck our region’s very dry pattern in August should break, at least a little.

Wednesday

All of that talk about rain is going to have to wait one more day, however, as we experience another hot and sunny day with high temperatures in the vicinity of 100 degrees. Winds will be light from the southwest, picking up a little bit during the afternoon and evening hours. Lows on Wednesday night will drop only to around 80 degrees.

Thursday

This will be another hot day, with highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. We may see a few clouds in the sky, however, along with increasing rain chances that may take some sting out of afternoon highs. These rain chances will persist into the overnight hours.

Friday

Another day with a healthy chance of scattered showers. Additionally, partly cloudy skies may hold highs in the low- to mid-90s, which is more typical for late August. Rain chances should diminish by Friday evening, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-90s for most locations (possibly upper 90s for far inland areas). Rain chances will fall back to about 10 percent daily.

Next week

This period should bring typical late summer weather to Houston, which is to say highs in the low- to mid-90s and daily rain chances roughly in the range of 30 percent. While this is still pretty hot, it is notably more moderate than the last 10 days or so of ‘peak’ summer we have experienced in Houston.