In brief: Rain chances continue today, although coverage should be slightly less than Tuesday, with lower overall intensity. High pressure builds later this week to set up an extended period of hot and sunny weather.

The Woodlands gets whacked

All of the greater Houston region recorded rainfall on Tuesday, but as is often the case totals varied widely. Some locations southwest of the city picked up only a quarter of an inch, with most of the area picking up between 0.5 and 2 inches. However the exception to this came north of the city, in Montgomery County.

Over the last two days areas from The Woodlands north to Lake Conroe have picked up 5 to 7 inches of rainfall. A check of waterways in the area show that most streams, creeks, and bayous are elevated but generally within their banks. After a quiet night, water elevations are slowly falling. High water remains on a handful of roadways this morning.

As we’ll discuss below, the focus for showers and thunderstorms should shift further south today. So although some rains are possible in areas hardest hit in Montgomery County over the last couple of days, I don’t believe conditions will be problematic for these locations. However, out of an abundance of caution I am going to hold Stage 1 flood conditions in place through this afternoon.

Also, although flooding issues have not been particularly acute for most of the greater Houston region, the story is different in parts of Central and West Texas. We have more information on that situation on The Eyewall.

Wednesday

Conditions are not as favorable for widespread showers and thunderstorms today in Houston as they were on Tuesday, but plenty of moisture remains in the atmosphere. For this reason much of the area is likely to see showers and thunderstorms today, although overall intensity should be lower. Rain chances are probably 50 percent for areas north of Interstate 10, and a bit higher for locations closer to the coast.

Most locations will likely pick up less than 1 inch of rain, but there could be some higher bullseyes south (and particularly further southwest, near El Campo and Matagorda Bay). These rains should end by late afternoon or early evening, leading to quieter conditions. Skies will be mostly cloudy otherwise, with highs generally in the mid-80s.

Thursday and Friday

High pressure will begin to build from the east, and this will start to shut down daily rain chances. Still, we probably will see about a 30 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms each day. With a mix of sunshine and clouds, high temperatures on both days will likely be in the vicinity of 90 degrees, or possibly lower 90s if we get more sunshine during the afternoon hours. Humidity will be sky high, of course, and nights only cooling into the upper 70s briefly.

Saturday and Sunday

We continue to expect mostly sunny and hot weather this weekend. For most locations highs will likely get into the mid-90s, although some inland locations could approach the upper 90s. It will be a classic beach and pool weekend in our region of Texas.

Next week

This hot and sunny pattern will persist through the first half of next week. There is some indication that we could possibly see the return of a few, sea breeze-driven showers by the second half of the work week. But mostly I expect we’re going to continue to see sunny skies and highs in the 90s. In other words, get any rains you need now.

In brief: We are maintaining a Stage 1 flood alert today due to the potential for street flooding from showers and thunderstorms. Hopefully we’ll start to see a break in the action this afternoon. Conditions turn hot and sunny by this weekend, and then we should stay in that pattern for awhile.

Storm overview

Nearly all of the Houston metro area picked up at least some rainfall on Monday and Monday night, and much of the area received in excess of 1 inch. We will continue to see surging atmospheric moisture levels today, and accordingly the Houston-area radar will get another workout. The action is getting started earlier today than on Monday, with showers already having spread into much of the region.

Basically we can expect fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms to persist through this morning, bringing an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall to most locations. It is possible that some locations see bullseyes of 3 or more inches of rainfall, which is why we have kept a Stage 1 flood alert in place for today and tonight. This means you should be aware of the potential for street flooding, and pay attention to the radar before venturing out. It also means that for most of the area most of the time, these showers are more of a nuisance than a serious hindrance to going about your business. Unless your business is house painting.

After this morning we expect there to be something of a reprieve this afternoon and this evening. An additional round of showers, likely not as intense nor as widespread, is possible on Wednesday.

Tuesday

As mentioned above, it’s raining. These showers and thunderstorms should be most widespread this morning before activity tapers off this afternoon to scattered, or possibly even isolated thunderstorms. Even when it’s not raining, skies should be mostly cloudy today, and high temperatures are likely to peak in the lower 80s. This is going to be one of the “coldest” days of the summer in Houston, with air temperatures for most of the day in the 70s. We don’t experience that often in the middle of the summer, so it’s a bit of silver lining to the rain. (Another silver lining is that next week looks rather hot and sunny, so the rains were getting now set us up nicely for that period). Showers will ease this afternoon and tonight should be mostly rain-free, with lows in the mid-70s.

Wednesday

We’re going to see another chance of showers on Wednesday, including a few stronger thunderstorms. But instead of a 100 percent chance of rain, the overall likelihood is more like 50 percent, and storms should persist for less time. Skies should remain mostly cloudy, and this will help keep highs in the mid- to upper-80s.

Thursday

Skies will still be fairly cloudy on Thursday, although we probably will start to see some breaks in the clouds. This will allow highs to reach about 90 degrees. Could we squeeze out a few additional showers? Possibly, but by this point we’re likely to begin to see the influence of high pressure tamping down rain chances. Lows on Thursday night will only fall into the upper 70s.

Friday

Expect a partly sunny day with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances are pretty much gone.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks set to bring us mostly sunny to sunny skies, with highs in the mid- to upper 90s. We have no weather concerns aside from the heat and of course the potential for sunburns from mid-morning through late afternoon.

Next week

We are going to continue to see hot and sunny weather, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s for all locations but coastal areas, which will be a touch cooler. Rain chances are basically zero until the middle of the week, by which point we may see something like a 10 percent chance of showers. It’s late July in Houston, folks, and it’s going to feel like it.

In brief: Houston will see favorable conditions for widespread showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday, and accordingly we have put a Stage 1 flood alert into place. On Wednesday we should transition to warmer and drier conditions. By this weekend, and into next week, we can expect hot and sunny conditions to prevail.

Stage 1 flood alert

Atmospheric moisture levels will surge today and Tuesday, and the absence of high pressure will support the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Generally, beginning later this morning, we expect rounds of storms to develop and slowly propagate through the region. Some of these storms may be slow moving. Although there will be some thunder and lightning, the primary threat will be heavy rainfall.

Most of Houston will pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall over the next couple of days. These are manageable totals. However some locations, beneath slower moving storms, may see as much as 5 inches. For this reason we are putting a Stage 1 flood alert into place through Tuesday night. Essentially this means we are concerned about flooding on freeway frontage roads and low-lying streets.

Monday and Tuesday

Generally, we expect storms to develop offshore this morning and then move inland. By around noon, or the early afternoon, we should see showers and thunderstorms develop across the majority of the region. There may be a brief pause later this afternoon or evening before another round of showers later tonight. This pattern will likely repeat itself through Tuesday.

Skies will be mostly cloudy when it is not raining, and the storms should should help to limit high temperatures. Today will likely reach the upper 80s for most locations, with mid-80s possible on Tuesday. Except in stronger thunderstorms, winds will be light. Basically, you’ll want to be weather aware the next couple of days, and give yourself a little more time before venturing to work or running errands.

Wednesday

This will be a bit of a transition day, with some additional showers possible, but less coverage and intensity than previous days. High temperatures will likely be around 90 degrees, or a tick higher, for most of the region.

Thursday and Friday

Skies will turn partly to mostly sunny to end the work week, with rain chances falling to around 10 percent. Expect highs in the mid-90s.

Saturday and Sunday

Temperatures this weekend will be quite hot, with sunny skies. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-90s as high pressure builds in. If you have outdoor plans on Saturday and Sunday make sure they involve a lot of sunscreen. Rain chances are near zero so it will be good weather for the beach or a backyard pool.

Next week

I expect this hot and sunny pattern to prevail through at least the first half of next week. Our next chance of rain would probably not come before Thursday or Friday of next week, and even then, who knows? Bottom line is that rains over the next couple of days will be beneficial for our soils before a drier period settles in.

In brief: Hit or miss showers will continue across Houston into the weekend, with coverage slowly increasing each day. A more concentrated heavy rain/storm chance is in the cards Monday and Tuesday with some flash flooding possible. Temperatures heat up later next week and weekend.

Some parts of Houston are in the “rain o’clock” phase of summer, where you hit the right time of day, and the storms start to fire. Rain totals this week have been quite variable, with some places seeing nothing and others, like the East End through Galena Park and Cloverleaf seeing 2 to 4 inches of rain. As we head toward next week, more places will participate in rainfall once again.

Today and Saturday

Both today and tomorrow look fairly similar with isolated to perhaps scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing across the area. Once again, many locations will come up empty, but some could easily pick up a quick inch or two. Tomorrow may have slightly higher coverage of storms than today. Either way, outside of that it will be seasonably hot and humid with highs in the low-90s.

Sunday

More of the same is expected here, however coverage of storms on Sunday could be a tinge higher than Saturday. Highs will be near 90 degrees or in the low-90s.

Next week

Here’s where the pattern begins to get more active. As high pressure builds over the Northern Plains and Midwest, southeast Texas will be on the southern periphery of the high, meaning the door to Gulf moisture will be wide open.

The clockwise flow around high pressure basically allows anything underneath to move east to west, so this strong upper level storm system over the Deep South will act as an enhancement for thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. While the strongest “forcing” with this disturbance will go north of Houston, the combination of this, a stalled weak front, and a bunch of Gulf moisture will likely produce pockets of heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding early next week. The eastern part of the area is in a slight risk (level 2/4) for flooding risk on Monday, and it’s likely this will be expanded or pushed into Tuesday for us.

I would expect some level of our flood scale to go up for Monday and Tuesday, probably Stage 1, maybe Stage 2. Eric will have an update for you on Monday morning, possibly Sunday if our confidence is high.

Things should quiet down some after Tuesday, with perhaps even a couple days off from rain chances. This does mean temperatures should begin to heat up with mid-90s by later next week, and possibly a bit hotter by the weekend. Stay tuned.