In brief: We’re watching the chance of some rain around Houston tonight and scattered showers tomorrow. But we don’t expect that tomorrow evening’s festivities will be massively impacted. You’ll just want to stay tuned in on things. Our next cold front is slated for Tuesday with showers or thunderstorms possible, followed by a return of cooler weather.

Spooky Season

Let’s start today by talking about tomorrow. As Eric noted yesterday, there is a ton of stuff happening this weekend, not the least of which is Halloween. For the daytime crowd, we do still expect scattered showers. I may be a touch more optimistic than Eric was yesterday and say that perhaps just a third of the area will see the passing downpours.

The best chances for rain tomorrow will be in the very early morning and again after 3 to 4 PM. Yes, this means that in some neighborhoods, trick or treating may be a gametime decision. And even in those cases, the rain should end and hopefully just offer up a delay. But just please be aware of conditions before you head out. You can check the radar in our app or your other favorite weather app. While these won’t be overly crazy scattered downpours, there is the potential for some lightning. Give it at least 15 or 20 minutes after the last clap of thunder to get out on the streets.

My call for tomorrow is that daytime events should be able to go on, but if for some reason rain overperforms, there will have to be some last minute decisions to assess. And trick or treating should mostly go off fine, with a few hiccups here and there.

Now, onto the rest of the forecast.

Today

The good news is that much of Texas is seeing rain today, as some of the moisture from Tropical Storm, ex-Hurricane Vance moves into West and Central Texas.

The bad news is that Houston is not seeing much of it, and we need rain too. That said, we’ll have our chances. Look for the potential for some of this rain to try to reform over the Houston area late today, probably after 5 PM or so. We could have a few hours of moderate rain this evening before things gradually subside later in the overnight. I don’t think the entire area will see rain this evening, but there’s a chance that a chunk of the area does, especially south of Houston. If you’re heading out to pre-Halloween parties tonight, just keep that in mind.

Saturday

See the top!

Sunday

Conditions should markedly improve on Sunday. We’ll probably still have some cloud cover around, but we should see at least some sun. Highs will depend on the sun; a lot of it and we do mid-80s, little of it and we do upper 70s to around 80.

Monday

Look for a day similar to Sunday, but it should be a bit more humid. Whereas dewpoints will be in the 60s on Sunday, we may see them rise into the 70s on Monday. This will be out ahead of a developing storm system to our west. Winds may begin to pick up off the Gulf on Monday night, with gusts to 20 mph or so.

Tuesday

This developing storm on Tuesday is going to drag a front into the Houston area either in the morning or in the early afternoon. With it will be a line of thunderstorms. I don’t want to overpromise here, but it does seem like we’ll get a burst of locally heavy rain as the front passes through. We’ll have a better idea on coverage and intensity Monday and update you then.

What will it do to temperatures? We’ll probably be in the 70s Tuesday morning, maybe creeping up into the 80s again. Behind the front, we’ll fall back into the 60s and possibly into the 50s by Wednesday morning.

Rest of next week

After Tuesday’s turbulence, it looks calmer the rest of next week. High pressure will build back in over the Southern Plains, allowing for seasonably warm temperatures in the 70s to near 80 by day and 50s by night. The cloud cover hanging around between now and Tuesday should clear as well, leading to a nice 3 or so days of weather to close next week. Our next storm system should begin to impact the region sometime late next weekend.

In brief: Houston will see slightly lower humidity today before atmospheric moisture ramps up on Friday and Saturday. Will this turn into showers and thunderstorms? We’ll definitely have our chances, especially on Saturday, but rains look pretty hit or miss. Better chances come Tuesday with a really sweet fall front.

Saturday rains?

There are a lot of outdoor events in Houston this weekend. Halloween comes on Saturday, of course, along with the large downtown celebration Scream on the Green Friday night, and Boo on the Boardwalk in Kemah on Friday and Saturday. Additionally there is the Wings Over Houston Airshow on Saturday and Sunday at Ellington Airport, and so much more. All of that to say, there is a lot riding on the rain forecast for this weekend.

We are seeing some modestly drier air move into the Houston region today, and this will hang around through Friday morning. After this we will start to see increasing levels of moisture in the atmosphere. This will increase humidity levels as well as support the potential for rain showers. There will lead to the possibility of scattered, light showers on Friday.

Moisture levels will peak on Saturday, and with a series of disturbances moving through we will have the potential for more widespread showers, and possibly some thunderstorms. This activity will be pretty hit or miss, in that probably only about half of the region will see any precipitation. And amounts will be modest for most locations, probably a tenth of an inch of rain, or two. This shower activity should start to wane by Saturday afternoon, in time for trick-or-treating on Saturday evening. Sunday should be rain free.

Thursday

Temperatures have fallen to around 60 degrees this morning for parts of the area, thanks to the inflow of slightly drier air. This should lead to a partly sunny day, with highs in the lower 80s. This will be the last day with modestly lower humidity until next Tuesday or so, when a much stronger front pushes through. Rain chances are near zero with the drier air. Lows tonight will likely drop into the lower 60s.

Friday and Saturday

As discussed above, we’ll see some decent (although far from overpowering) rain chances during this period. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy on both days, with highs in the low- to mid-80s for most locations. Temperatures during the trick-or-treating hour will be in the upper 70s, with plenty of humidity. Nights will only drop into the upper 60s.

Sunday and Monday

These will be partly sunny and rather warm days, with highs in the mid-80s for the region and muggy air. If you’re ready for Houston to feel like fall, read on.

Tuesday and beyond

At some point on Tuesday a genuine fall cold front is going to move through the area. If we are lucky, and I am hopeful we will be, there will be a decent shot of rain (perhaps 0.5 to 1.5 inches in total) with the frontal passage, possibly in the form of some thunderstorms. Anyway, large chunks of Houston could really use some rain. Following the front’s passage I think we’ll see mostly sunny conditions through the weekend, with highs generally in the 70s and lows in the 50s. It should be really, really nice.

In brief: Houston’s forecast finally has some healthy rain chances in it, which marks a notable change from the last several weeks (months for some locations). We also look ahead to notably cooler weather arriving in Houston about one week from today.

Wednesday

Houston broke its multi-day streak of sunny days on Tuesday with mostly cloudy conditions. Some areas even saw some light precipitation. These conditions combined to keep highs below 80 degrees for most of the region, including our official high of just 74 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

Today will be somewhat similar, we think. We could see a smattering of rain showers again, and there will be some clouds. However I think there will be a little more sunshine, and this should help nudge high temperatures back up toward 80 degrees. Low temperatures will probably drop into the mid-60s tonight, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday

This will be a straightforward forecast, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80s. With moderate winds turning easterly we should see an influx of some slightly drier air, and this will bring humidity levels down a bit. Lows on Thursday night should again drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Friday and Saturday

By mid-day Friday we should start to see rising moisture levels in the atmosphere again, and this will increase both humidity and rain chances. The most likely period of rain will come between Friday night and Saturday afternoon, with overall chances probably around 50 percent for most locations. Amounts do not look super impressive, with most locations likely seeing a tenth of an inch of rain, or two.

Highs on both days will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with warm nights in the upper 60s. Skies will likely be mostly cloudy, with a fair amount of humidity. I do expect the showers to end, or be ending by late Saturday afternoon or early evening, so you should see fair conditions in the upper 70s during the trick-or-treating hour.

Sunday and Monday

To end the weekend and start next week I expect a pair of partly sunny days with highs in the low- to mid-80s. With dewpoints in the 70s it will feel pretty muggy outside as well.

Later next week

By Tuesday or more probably Tuesday night we should see the arrival of the region’s next real cold front, and by all accounts this one should have some staying power. We may well see some showers and thunderstorms with the front’s passage. After this we are going to see significantly cooler weather, with highs perhaps around 70 degrees and lows in the 50s or possibly even 40s for some inland locations. This cooler air could stick around through next weekend. All of the details on this front are to be determined still, but a significant pattern change does legitimately appear to be on the way.

In brief: Houston will have some chances for spotty showers today, and then again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may come around a week from today, when the region’s next cold front comes barreling through.

Tuesday

If one checks the Houston radar this morning there are actual rain showers there, but they are pretty far from the city, down near Port Lavaca and Indianola. They are slowly moving to the northeast, toward Matagorda. Could we see some of this activity eventually spill into the city of Houston later today? Possibly, but I would only rate rain chances for most of us in Harris and surrounding counties at 10 or 20 percent. However an increase in atmospheric moisture should lead to at least a partly cloudy day, a change from the full sunshine we’ve been experiencing. Expect highs of around 80 degrees. Lows tonight will be warmer, in the upper 60s.

Wednesday

This should be a partly to mostly sunny day with highs in the low- to mid-80s. Rain chances will again be in the vicinity of 10 or 20 percent in the Houston region later in the day. Expect lows in the upper 60s.

Thursday

Thursday starts out mostly sunny, and we should see highs generally in the lower 80s. We may briefly see a northeasterly flow on Thursday that will allow for some drier air to move into the region. After a humidity rise on Tuesday and Wednesday, this could briefly bring it back down to more comfortable levels on Thursday evening and overnight. My sense is this could allow lows to drop into the lower 60s in Houston on Thursday night, but we shall see.

Friday and Saturday

Atmospheric moisture levels will recover sometime on Friday, and the extent to which moisture levels rise is key to whether we see much rain on Friday or Halloween. Highs Friday will be about 80 degrees, with sunny skies. We may see a 20 percent chance of rain during the afternoon or evening hours. On Saturday there may be a few more clouds, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. Rain chances could be as high as 40 percent on Saturday. I expect any shower activity (if it does materialize) will probably be gone by late Saturday afternoon, so I don’t anticipate too many issues with trick-or-treating.

Sunday

This looks like a warm-ish day for early November, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s.

Next week

We’ll remain in a warm, mid-80s pattern to start next week. At some point, perhaps later on Tuesday, Tuesday night, or early Wednesday, a fair strong cold front should move into the region. There is a pretty decent chance this front will bring some showers and thunderstorms with it, ushering in some much needed rainfall. It is still too early to have full confidence in meaningful precipitation, but I’m hopeful. Post-front, I expect highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for at least a few days next week. Details on all of this to come!