A forecast with a little bit of something for everybody—well except snow

Summary: Houston will see at least some scattered showers today, with the slight potential for some thunderstorms. Tuesday looks warm (almost hot) and sunny, and should be our warmest day of 2024 so far. After that we’ll be warm and mostly cloudy until the weekend, when conditions turn cooler.

It’s a mild March morning everywhere but West Texas and the Panhandle. (Weather Bell)

Monday

Fog is present along and near the coast this morning as dewpoints and temperatures are the same, in the upper 60s. It will dissipate by mid-morning. High temperatures today will reach about 80 degrees, with persistent cloud cover. The big question for today is rainfall. There should be plenty of moisture available, but overall conditions are not ideal. What you can probably expect is scattered, light showers this morning. This afternoon, with daytime heating, some stronger thunderstorms will be possible, but these should be scattered to isolated. The bottom line is that half the area may see no rain at all, but a few pockets probably could see heavy showers and lightning. Overall, the potential for stronger showers today appears to be slightly higher along and north of Interstate 45.

Rodeo forecast

Temperatures will be plenty mild this evening heading into the rodeo, in the low 70s. The concern, discussed above, is the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Overall the odds are fairly low, probably 20 percent or less, this evening before, during, or after the show. But this is not zero, so please be weather aware. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s, so it will be mild after the show.

Tuesday

For those who want sunshine and heat, Tuesday is the day. As Matt described last week, we’re going to see a decaying front push into Houston that will bring some slightly drier air (but no cooling). This, combined with mostly sunny skies, will allow high temperatures to pop. Right now the most likely outcome is highs in the mid-80s, but a few locations could push toward 90 degrees. Regardless it’s going to feel very warm for early March. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the low to mid-60s.

High temperature forecast for Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

This looks to be a partly sunny day in the low 80s, with another mild night.

Thursday

A few more clouds should help to limit highs to the upper 70s. Some low shower chances return later on Thursday and Thursday night.

Friday

We’ll see another chance of showers on Friday ahead of a cold front. At this point I’m not convinced how widespread precipitation will be, so I’ll say that about half of the region will at least see some light rain. But we’ll see. Look for highs around 80 degrees with drier air arriving sometime during the daytime with the front. Overnight lows drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be for those who like cooler conditions. Highs both days will likely range from 65 to 70 degrees, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Rain chances look low to non-existent. Lows temperatures will bottom out at around 50 degrees in Houston, with 40s possible for inland areas.

Next week

We’ll see a warming trend heading into the middle of next week, with highs getting back into the 70s. Some decent rain chances return by around Wednesday or so.

Warming back up with a decent weekend expected in Houston

Summary: Temperatures will begin warming up today as we clear out the clouds. Look for a super Saturday and a decent Sunday with temperatures rebounding to near 80° once more. A system Monday brings us our next rain chances before we slowly clear out Tuesday.

Today

It’s a cool start today once again with temperatures in the 40s and 50s across the region.

Chilly temps to start Friday with 40s and 50s over most of the region. (NOAA)

We will probably be socked in with clouds over most of the region this morning. But as a weak system exits, slightly drier air will push in and dissipate much of the cloud cover, setting up what should be a nice afternoon. It feels like it will be tough to squeeze much more moisture out of that system as it exits today, so other than a few isolated morning showers, especially on the coast or around Matagorda Bay, that should be that. With some added sunshine and slightly warmer air in place, we’ll likely rebound to 70 degrees or better this afternoon. That’s close to what is typical for this time of year.

Rodeo Forecast

As far as this forecaster is concerned, tonight is worth much more than half a buck. Look for temperatures dropping through the 60s with light winds and generally clear or partly cloudy skies. No need for 21 questions about the weather, as there will be no rain and nothing to worry about in da club afterwards.

We’ll open the evening around 70 degrees and close in the low-60s.

Weekend

Saturday looks great. Highs will be near 80 degrees, with humidity remaining at a fairly tolerable level. Sunshine and just a few clouds are expected, though the morning could stay gray in some spots, especially close to the coast or Galveston Bay.

Sunday may see additional morning low clouds or fog, giving way to a mix of clouds and sun. Highs will again be near 80 degrees. I wouldn’t entirely rule out a few raindrops Sunday afternoon, but it should not wreck your day.

Monday

A storm over the southern Plains will drag a “kinda sorta” front toward Houston on Monday. It honestly may just fall apart before it actually gets here. What it will do, regardless, is deliver an increasing chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. I would not call Monday a washout, but it looks like our best rain chance in a minute. Temperatures will start the day in the 60s and warm to near 80 once more, even with rain chances.

Rain totals through Tuesday look modest, though a few places may do better than what is shown here. (Pivotal Weather)

Moisture levels in the atmosphere look pretty beefy on Monday, so a few folks may see heavier downpours. But this rain looks very manageable, if not welcome.

Tuesday

Arguably, Tuesday is the most interesting forecast day. Behind Monday’s decaying front, we may get just enough lowering of humidity to allow for temperatures to have a little more runway to work with Tuesday. Drier air heats up more efficiently than humid air, and that drop in humidity between Monday and Tuesday will boost temps some. The question of how warm comes down to whether or not we see clouds and lingering showers Tuesday. If that happens, we’ll probably take a run toward 80 or so once again with morning lows in the 60s.

Tuesday’s high temperatures could easily be a few degrees warmer than shown here — if clouds and showers hold off. (Pivotal Weather)

However, with enough sunshine, we could push rather decently into the 80s. In fact, I looked “under the hood” at the National Blend of Models, and it even has a 10 percent chance of high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees on Tuesday. I surely would not forecast that, but it gives you an idea that the atmosphere is ready to go warm. Will we get the sunshine to do it? I’m not sure. But expect at least 80 on Tuesday, with risk for hotter.

Rest of next week

Beyond Tuesday, the week looks a little cooler, with highs in the 70s most days, perhaps near 80 at times. Morning lows will be in the lower half of the 60s. A few passing showers can’t be ruled out between Wednesday and Saturday. A more robust cold front may approach the region around next weekend, which could allow for a sharper drop in temperatures, not as cold as it was yesterday and this morning but notably cooler. We’ll keep an eye on that.

Today may be our final day in the 50s for the next eight months

Summary: Houston will experience some fairly chilly weather for the next 24 hours, with highs today in the 50s and lows in the 40s overnight. We may also see some light showers on top of that. The weekend will warm nicely, with plenty of sunshine on Saturday. Our best chance at widespread rain, with decent accumulations, will come next Monday.

Low temperature forecast for Friday morning. (Weather Bell)

Thursday

We’re starting out today with temperatures of about 50 degrees, and due to a preponderance of clouds we likely aren’t going to rise much higher. Temperatures this afternoon should peak in the upper-50s across the Houston region and now that we’re at the end of February, I can’t help but wonder when that will happen again. Probably not for many months. (Houston’s first high in the 50s last fall came on October 30).

In any case it’s going to be cloudy and chilly. The atmosphere is pretty dried out right now, but that will change today as a more southerly flow takes hold just above the surface. With more moisture in the atmosphere we’ll see an increasing chance of very light rain this afternoon and evening, although accumulations during the overnight hours will be measured in hundredths of an inch for most.

Rodeo forecast

Bring a jacket, maybe. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s this afternoon as you venture out to the rodeo, and as mentioned there will be a chance of light rain, perhaps about 40 percent or so. Winds, from the northeast at the surface, will be fairly light. Things won’t change much after the concert, with temperatures in the low-50s, more clouds, and a continuing chance of light rain.

Friday

This will be our coldest morning for some time as much of Houston falls into the upper 40s. We’ll see some clearing skies later on Friday, and in conjunction with a more easterly flow this will help temperatures warm to about 70 degrees, perhaps a tick warmer. Lows on Friday night will drop into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend still looks good to go for outdoor activities. Saturday looks quite nice with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Lows will drop to around 60 degrees. Sunday will see more clouds, and a bit muggier air, as highs reach about 80 degrees. There’s a slight chance of some showers later on Sunday but I think they’re likely to hold off until Monday. Lows on Sunday night will only drop into the 60s.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through next Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

Next week

The details are still uncertain, but it looks as though a front will move into the vicinity of Houston on Monday and stall out. This will lead to a healthy chance of rain showers on Monday and Monday night, possibly stretching into Tuesday morning. I think most of the area probably will see around 1 inch of rain, give or take. After that temperatures will depend on the front, but since it now seems likely to stall, I bet we see highs of around 80 degrees, with lows in the 60s, for most of next week. Conditions may turn a bit cooler toward next weekend.

Wild weather

In some parts of Texas, and around the country, there’s been some pretty wild weather of late. We’ve got the rundown on wildfires in the Texas panhandle, tornadoes in Michigan, and more in The Eyewall.

Front moving into Houston to bring a brief spell of colder weather

Summary: A front will blow through Houston this morning to bring a surge of much drier air into the region. This will result in a couple of cooler nights. We’ll also see the return of some light rain showers on Thursday night, but the weekend should yield some sunshine.

Lows on Wednesday night will be the coldest of the week for some locations. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

A cold front will push into Houston this morning to displace the muggy air mass overhead. Temperatures will drop only a few degrees initially, but dewpoints will fall off a cliff. Skies will remain mostly cloudy. We should see wind gusts jump up above 30 mph for a few hours this afternoon as this drier air blows in from the north. In short, more winter-like weather will come raging back into Houston for a little while.

Rodeo forecast

Winds will begin slackening late this afternoon and evening, but I still expect gusts above 20 to 25 mph as you’re heading into the rodeo. Temperatures before the show will be in the 60s, dropping into the 50s after the show. With the breeze, it will definitely feel a bit chilly outside. Overnight lows will eventually drop to around 50 degrees by Thursday morning, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday

This will be the one cold day this week. I’m not sure highs will get out of the 50s, with mostly cloudy skies. Unlike a lot of fronts we see in Houston, this one is not going to be followed by a lot of sunshine. Rather, pretty quickly the flow is going to turn northeasterly, and in concert with some weak atmospheric disturbances it’s possible that we see some very light showers later on Thursday afternoon or Thursday night. into Friday morning. Lows should drop to around 50 overnight.

Friday

This will be a transition day back to warmer weather. After light showers end during the morning hours we should actually see a bit of sunshine later in the day, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Winds will be fairly light, from the northeast. With a warmer flow in place, lows on Friday night likely will only drop into the low 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks fine. We should see partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Humidity levels will be moderate, but not oppressive. Overnight temperatures will be mild. I can’t entirely rule out a chance of showers later on Sunday or Sunday evening, but I think these will hold off until Monday.

Rain accumulation forecast for now through next Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

Next week

Next week’s forecast is filled with a whole lot of “I don’t know.” The uncertainty is due to the approach of a cold front by around Tuesday-ish, and a lack of clarity on whether it pushes all the way through Houston. The bottom line is that I do think we’ll see elevated rain chances on Monday and Tuesday, with accumulations of perhaps half an inch, give or take. But as for temperatures, who knows. We’ll probably be somewhere in the 70s during the daytime, but the nights will depend on the progression of the front.