In brief: Showers and storms will cross the Houston area through mid-afternoon, with some possibly on the stronger or even severe side. Hail and gusty winds are the main concerns. It will turn sharply cooler this evening with gradual clearing tomorrow.

Things are quiet around Houston this morning, with just a few showers and a couple rumbles of thunder up near Huntsville. Otherwise, we have just a broken line of showers and embedded thunder on a line between about College Station and Columbus to our west.

Over the next couple hours, this “line” will move eastward, probably arriving in the Houston area itself around 12 to 2 PM. As the storms come east, the storms will likely strengthen some. That’s when we will see some heavier downpours, a little more lightning, and perhaps some 40 mph wind gusts. One or two storms could become severe with large hail, more damaging-type winds (60 mph) or even a very isolated tornado (mainly east of Houston). Those severe storms look to be the exception rather than the rule this afternoon, but we’ll continue to monitor things. We are in a level 3 of 5 (enhanced) risk northeast of Houston today for severe weather.

In addition to keeping an eye to the sky, keep an eye on the thermometer, especially this evening. Temperatures will peak in the 80s early this afternoon before dropping back into the 60s this evening and 50s before midnight. Out will be the humidity, in will be the light jacket. There will also likely be periodic showers this evening, possibly even a rumble of thunder or two. Things gradually clear out Sunday.

Just keep an eye on the weather today, but aside from one or two isolated severe storms, we do not anticipate things getting out of control.

In brief: Continued wind in Houston today will finally break tomorrow as a cold front ushers in showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. There is some severe weather risk on Saturday before we slowly clear out on a much cooler Sunday, setting up a gorgeous week to come.

Good morning, H-Town. Any day after an Astros “W” is a good day. The Astros are off today, and although the Rockets play an okay team from OKC tonight, today that W actually stands for wind.

Today

We’ll have to do some digging on how this spring has actually compared to previous springs in terms of wind when we get some time, but today is going to be no different. Wind advisories are again in effect today, and we’ll see southeast winds gusting as high as 35 mph. Oak pollen remains extremely high, and although we’re past peak now all this wind is going to keep carrying it around.

Outside of wind, expect another hot day today with temperature pushing well into the 80s and plenty of humidity. We get to track the potential for showers or a thunderstorm later this afternoon. Modeling has been trying to initiate storms near I-10 or just north before quickly lifting them northeastward. That may very well be what happens. As those storms move northeast, they’d be likely to intensify, and it’s not out of the question for a couple raucous storms to impact portions of Montgomery, Liberty, Walker, San Jacinto, or Polk Counties late today. We do not expect severe weather in the Houston Metro today. The highest severe risk remains up in far northeast Texas and Arkansas, where a moderate risk (4/5) is in place.

Saturday

After a continued breezy, warm, humid Friday night, we get to watch the potential for some strong thunderstorms on Saturday. The timing of the front hitting the area right now appears to be in the 11 AM through 4 PM window. It will enter the western parts of the area as a broken line of showers and some storms. As it crosses the Houston Metro, it will likely begin to ramp up a bit.

The Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight (level 2/5) risk for severe storms as this happens. The exact timing of the front may determine our odds of severe weather. A slower front would likely have more instability to tap into, whereas a faster front would hit earlier in the day with less instability. Generally speaking, the farther to the east you go, the better your chances of seeing severe thunderstorms. Whatever the case, we will update you Saturday morning (or possibly later today) with the latest. All severe weather hazards are on the table, including hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado or two. Additionally, any storm could easily dump 1 to 3 inches of rain in an hour causing some flash street flooding. Stay tuned.

Outside of storms, expect highs in the 80s again with lingering showers in the area Saturday evening.

Sunday

We will shift to a significantly cooler theme on Sunday. Some lingering clouds or even a few AM showers should give way to sunshine, but after a morning in the 50s or even upper-40s, we will limp into the lower or middle 60s for highs. It will feel awfully cool compared to how this week has been.

Next week

Bust open the windows! (responsibly, of course) It looks like Monday is going to be stellar. Morning lows in the 40s will be followed by daytime highs near 70 degrees. Tuesday? Nice; 50s to mid 70s. Wednesday? Nice; 50s to upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Thursday? Still nice! Warmer though with 80s. All we do is win, win, win no matter what next week. We’ll call that a “W” too.

In brief: Houston is continuing to see exceptionally warm weather this week, and we’ll also experience ongoing windy conditions. There will be a very slight chance of storms north of the region today and Friday, and the risk of more widespread severe weather on Saturday. Afterwards conditions appear to be gorgeous next week.

Thursday

Temperatures continue to be very warm this morning across the Houston region. The normal low for the city, on April 3, is 57 degrees. Yesterday, the minimum temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport only reached 76 degrees, which smashed the previous record for high minimum temperature of 72 degrees for the day. We’re likely to set a similar record today.

A robust southwesterly flow in the atmosphere will continue to funnel warm air into the region today and Friday. This will help push temperatures up to around 90 degrees for most of Houston today even though skies are likely to remain partly to mostly cloudy. For April, that’s impressive heating without lots of direct sunshine.

The other factor in our weather will be the presence of a frontal boundary just to the north of the Houston area. This will do a couple of things. First, it will support strong southerly winds, at about 15 mph with gusts up to 30 or 35 mph. And secondly, for northern areas (probably along and north of Highway 105) it will produce a slight chance of storms. Down in the Houston metro area we cannot rule out some sprinkles, but we should remain dry for the most part. (By the way, this storm risk is historically high in the Mid-South, and you can find more information about this on The Eyewall). Expect another very warm night in the mid-70s.

Friday

We should see similar conditions on Friday, albeit with a slightly higher chance of showers in the Houston area, and thunderstorms for locations in Montgomery County and points north. Temperatures likely will be in the upper 80s for most of the Houston area.

Saturday

I’ve had a ton of questions about weddings and various outdoor activities on Saturday, due to the timing of the front, winds, and potential for thunderstorms. We’re just now coming into the range of high-resolution models, so we should start to get better details over the next 12 to 24 hours. What we know is that a front will push into Houston on Saturday, likely reaching the urban core of the city by around noon, and pushing off the coast afterward. The entire area faces a slight risk of severe weather during this frontal passage, with the usual threats of wind, hail, and possibly a tornado. At this time, it looks like the period of most concern for storms will be from mid-morning to the early evening in Houston. We should be able to nail this down more in Friday’s post. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid-80s with plenty of humidity ahead of the front before temperatures drop to around 50 degrees by Sunday morning.

Sunday

I expect rains to end at some point on Saturday night, but we cannot entirely rule out a few showers on Sunday morning. But skies should be clearing, and there will be plenty of drier air. Expect highs in the mid-60s, if you can believe it. It will be a bit breezy, with northerly winds of 15 mph or so, and higher gusts. These winds should die down by Sunday night, as lows drop into the upper 40s for much of the region.

Next week

Highs remain in the 70s, and lows in the 50s, through at least Wednesday of next week. Although the temperatures likely climb back into the 80s toward the end of the week, the air still looks reasonably dry. In short, it should be a splendid, spring-like week.

In brief: Today’s post discusses high winds expected over the Houston region this week, and our warm temperatures. Depending on clouds, some locations may hit 90 degrees. A strong front arrives this weekend and brings a chance of storms on Saturday. Next week looks much cooler and drier. Also, it’s bird migration time. We provide a way to track the nocturnal activity of these friendly fliers.

It’s bird migration time

I had a little fun with the headline this morning, but the reality is that April is the prime month for birds to migrate north across Texas from tropical South America and Mexico. There’s a fantastic resource called BirdCast which uses a variety of tools to track such migrations over Harris County, including weather radars and local observations. For example, the site estimates that about 600,00 birds flew overhead last night.

Migrations are also greater when winds are from the south, as this assists the flight of the birds, and we’re expecting fairly pronounced southerly winds this week. (Hence, this weather really is for the birds). Although birds will typically fly at 1,000 or more feet up in the atmosphere, they may stop to rest in our parks and coastal sanctuaries. If you want to help, you can turn out lights at night, as these can prove disorienting to birds. This video from Cornell University’s Lab of Ornithology offers much more information about all of this.

Wednesday

I wasn’t kidding about those winds. We are seeing gusts this morning of 30 mph, or higher, across much of the area, and we’re going to see fairly gusty conditions from now through Saturday. Winds should peak during the afternoon hours. Our high temperatures today will be determined by the extent to which we see clearing skies this afternoon, but my sense is that most areas will see enough clouds to hold highs in the upper 80s. But it’s still going to be quite warm and humid outside, especially with dewpoints around 70 degrees. There is a very slight chance of some showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two north of Houston this afternoon and evening. We’re likely talking areas along and north of Highway 105 here, so most of the Houston region should experience none of this.

Thursday and Friday

These look to be similar days, with gusty southerly winds and temperatures slotting in between the mid-80s and 90 degrees depending on cloud cover. Thursday probably has the best chance to be sunny during the afternoon, so that’s when most of the area probably will make a run at 90 degrees. It will be humid regardless, with warm nights. Both days will have about a 10 percent chance of some showers, so most of us will be dry.

Saturday and Sunday

A strong cold front will push through the area on Saturday, likely during the daytime hours. This should bring a good shot of rain with it, along with the potential for severe thunderstorms. Although the dynamics for strong storms look better to the northeast of Houston, we certainly cannot rule out impacts in the city. We are talking about the potential for heavy rainfall, brief street flooding, damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado. Again, none of these are certainties or perhaps even likely, but conditions are such that they’re possible. (Much of the city probably will see 0.5 to 1 inch of rain, for example). We should have a better idea about the overall threat in the coming days. The bottom line is that you should be prepared for the possibility of inclement weather on Saturday, especially in Kingwood and points to the northeast.

Depending on the timing, temperatures probably will reach the low- to mid-80s before the front trundles through. Lows on Saturday night will likely drop into the low 50s for much of the area. Some slight rain chances linger on Sunday, but I expect clearing skies at some point during the day. Highs probably will still only max out in the 60s.

Next week

Most of next week looks sunny and spring-like. Seriously, if you like mild temperatures and dry air, I’d advise soaking next week up. We should see daytime temperatures in the 70s and nights in the 50s through Wednesday or Thursday before we warm back up into the 80s. In addition to lots of sunshine we can expect much lighter winds for the most part. Cannot wait.