In brief: The threat of storms and heavy rainfall today in Houston has diminished. But it’s still going to be an unpleasant day outdoors with intermittent showers, chilly air, and strong easterly winds.
It is not a particularly nice Sunday outside this morning. The temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport about an hour before sunrise was just 50 degrees, with light rain, and easterly winds gusting up to 28 mph. For many parts of Houston, conditions will not improve much throughout the day.
Wind gust forecast for early Sunday afternoon. (WeatherFront)
However, the forecast could be worse. There were some scenarios in which the coastal low today brought heavy rainfall into Houston. Although there remains the potential for some bullseyes of 3 inches or more for southern Brazoria County and other coastal areas, by and large the majority of the Houston region should pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inch of rain today, which should be totally manageable. The heaviest rain, and we are talking 6 to 10 inches, now looks set to fall well offshore today. Moreover, the threat of severe thunderstorms is lower in the Houston region than previously anticipated.
So yes, it’s going to be chilly today. Many areas north of Interstate 10 may well not climb out of the 50s. (Areas further south will get into the 60s today). There will be on-and-off rain showers from sunrise through about 9 pm or so this evening. And we will see strong winds from the east and northeast, gusting up to 30 or even 35 mph later today. But it could be worse!
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday night. (Weather Bell)
After the rains end tonight, Monday should be a partly sunny day with highs in the upper 50s. Expect another chilly night on Monday night before we start warming somewhat this week. After today’s gloomy weather, if you’re missing the sunshine, you can circle Tuesday on your calendar for plenty of that.
In brief: Following a period of idyllic weather in Houston, our atmospheric pattern turns more unsettled tonight and especially on Sunday. Coastal areas, in particular, could see heavy rains and thunderstorms.
Pattern change ahead
After a few days of gorgeous, clear weather, an upper-level system will move into the region later tonight. This will set the stage for a rainy and potentially stormy Sunday. The most impactful weather will occur during the daytime on Sunday, from sunrise to sunset, but Houston may see some slight showers beforehand.
Saturday and Saturday night
Houston will see partly to mostly sunny conditions today, with highs likely pushing into the upper 60s. Some light showers will be possible later this afternoon, or evening in Houston, but I don’t believe these will be too impactful. Coastal areas, particularly to the south of Houston near Matagorda Bay, may see some thunderstorms, however. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Monday morning. (Weather Bell)
Sunday and Sunday night
The atmosphere will turn more conducive to rainfall and storms on Sunday as moisture levels increase and a series of disturbances move through. For most of Houston this will be manageable, with rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. There will also be the potential of thunderstorms in the city. Overall, this is not the best setup for severe weather over Houston, but closer to the coast and some warmer air I have some concerns.
These conditions should support the potential for greater rainfall totals over coastal counties such as Brazoria and Galveston, where 2 to 4 inches of rain may be possible with some higher bullseyes. As noted above, the atmospheric background for severe weather (most likely strong thunderstorms) will also be higher in these areas.
The threat of inclement weather should end by Sunday evening or so, as a colder air mass begins moving into the region but a few light showers could persist overnight. High temperatures on Monday should top out in the 50s, if you can believe it, before we begin to warm up next week.
Matt and I will be watching things closely in case we need to issue a flood stage warning for Sunday in the Houston region. If we do so, it probably would be for coastal areas, out of an abundance of caution. If we decide the pull the trigger, we will update the site this evening.
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In brief: Houston may be turning the corner in terms of rainfall as winter approaches. Another storm system this weekend is likely to douse much of the area with a fair bit of rain Sunday, and more may be on the horizon. Along with the rain, some chilly weather too.
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Without fail we always get some complaints from folks that they just want to make a donation and can’t quite figure out how. It’s definitely a little less intuitive than we’d like, but it’s part of the deal. So! If that’s what you’d prefer to do, we explain on the fundraiser page, but here’s a quick outline.
2.) There’s a little checkbox at the top that says “I’d like to make a donation only.” Click that, and the shirt will disappear.
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Onward.
Turning the rainfall corner?
While the weather is truly lovely at present, we have seen some rain this week, and we are likely to see more this weekend. So, are we turning a corner? The answer is maybe. We can assess this by looking at the forecast of accumlated precipitation over the next couple weeks from the 51 member European ensemble model.
Tap to enlarge.
You can see a couple things. First, almost all of the ensemble members are forecasting a good bit of rain in Houston this weekend. Yes, you have a couple that show 0.5 to 0.8″ only, but most settle in at over an inch, with many close to 2 inches. But beyond that, there are a good number of ensemble members that bring in another shot of rain later next week and some that include more rain late next weekend or early on Thanksgiving week. I recall a few comments from folks lambasting the hype over the El Niño as providing false hope for rain. While we may not be getting soaked constantly this winter, we will likely get our share of storms and rain and hopefully push out drought once again.
Today
Just another absolute gem of a day. Highs in the low 70s with sunshine and low humidity. Enjoy!
Saturday
Tomorrow should start out lovely once again, with lows in the 50s. As the day progresses, it will turn cloudy, however. Highs should only make the mid 60s because of that, and we will pick up a bit of an east wind around 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday
The weather gets more interesting on Sunday. As an upper level storm system digs into the Texas Panhandle, it will help fire up rain and thunderstorms out ahead of it across interior Texas. By later Sunday morning those storms will be knocking on the doorstep of the Houston area. As this system moves through, a pretty potent little surface low pressure system is going to develop off the coast.
A slight risk (1/4) is in place for excessive rainfall on Sunday, meaning some isolated instances of flash flooding are possible. (NOAA)
This means periods of rain, heavy at times on Sunday, along with thunderstorms. While we do not expect much severe weather, some storms near the coast could be on the stronger side with gusty winds. Those areas are highlighted in a marginal severe weather risk as well (level 1/5). Regardless, it seems likely that Galveston Island may see 30 to 35 mph gusts late Sunday into Monday behind the storm and front. Expect Sunday to be a rather nasty day.
In terms of open questions: How much rain falls, and is it worse in the morning or afternoon? Right now it seems like the entire area will see 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rain, with highest amounts near the coast. But this could change. I expect Eric will chime in with an update tomorrow for the latest on this storm and to see if we need to push out a Stage 1 flood alert.
Rainfall as forecast by the overnight European model, showing the highest totals near the coast. This is one possibility of several. (WeatherFront)
Early next week
As the storm passes east of the area on Monday, clouds and some showers may be left behind, along with a cool northeast wind. We may struggle to get above 60 degrees Monday, with temps in the mid to upper 50s most of the day. Things should clear a bit on Tuesday, allowing for sunshine and a return to 60s.
Later next week
Additional rounds of rain are possible later next week along with more cloud cover. Temperatures should rebound some into the 70s, along with a bit more humidity. A relatively active weather pattern seems to be settling in across the Southern U.S., typical for strong El Niño late autumns.
In brief: We are going to have two splendid, sunny days ahead of the weekend, when we may see some fairly widespread showers on Sunday across the Houston region. In today’s post we also offer a way, way too early forecast for the week of Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving
We are just starting to come within the outer limits of our forecast models for the week of Thanksgiving, and the holiday itself, which comes in just two weeks’ time. In the coming of days we will experience a couple of fronts, but by the middle of next week we should see high pressure holding sway. This will push daytime temperatures into the upper 70s, probably, with mild nights in the 60s.
There is good general agreement in cooler weather for the week of Thanksgiving, but predictions this far out should not be relied upon. (Weather Bell)
About 10 days from now, the most likely outcome is that the region experiences another, somewhat stronger cold front. This would set the stage for a cooler Thanksgiving week, with nights in the 50s or possibly 40s, which would be our coldest nights of the season. This cooler weather would probably persist into Thanksgiving Day (highs in the 60s?), providing a festive feeling for the holiday. As for rain chances, it’s all a little too fuzzy at this point.
Should we feel confident in this forecast? Given that it’s so far out, probably not too much. But there is decent agreement across the ensembles of several models, so I think it’s a reasonable possibility. Or who knows, maybe this forecast ends up looking like it was written by turkeys.
We’ve been saying for awhile these two days are going to be splendid, and Mother Nature is indeed delivering. With a weak front moving in overnight, we are going to enjoy drier air, sunny skies, and highs in the 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low- to mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. Really, it does not get much better than this.
Low temperature forecast for Saturday morning. (WeatherFront)
Saturday
This should also be a pleasant fall day, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees, with partly to mostly sunny skies. However during the daytime on Saturday we’ll start to see increasing southerly winds, gusting up to 20 or 25 mph. This is one sign of increasing atmospheric moisture levels, which will set the stage for rain showers. These may begin on Saturday night, but more likely on Sunday morning.
Sunday
We are likely to see widespread showers on Sunday with the approach of a cold front from the northwest. Showers will be most likely during the afternoon, probably, but could occur throughout the day. I expect much of the region to pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, although at this point I do not believe we will see much, if any, severe weather. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid-70s, before the arrival of the front later on Sunday or Sunday night pushes temperatures into the 50s by Monday morning.
A reasonable estimate of rain totals through Sunday night. (WeatherFront)
Next week
With high pressure in place after the front, we should see highs in the 60s to start next week with partly sunny skies. Eventually, during the second half of next week, we should see the aforementioned warming trend with highs pushing into the 70s, and possibly upper 70s. And then we’re getting close to the week of Thanksgiving, which we discussed at the outset of today’s post.
