In brief: In today’s post we talk about the potential for storms this evening in Houston as a weak front sags into the area. A second push of colder air will make things feel festive on Thanksgiving Day. And we’ll see the return of a moderately warmer pattern with higher rain chances this coming weekend.

We begin today’s post with a little bit of housekeeping …

A few words on our app

Our app—which remains completely free and does not track your activity, in other words we do not monetize your data—is now a few years old. We went through some growing pains this year as both app platforms changed things up. Honestly, keeping up with everything in app-land is a lot, and so I’m glad we’ve got Dwight Silverman and Hussain Abbasi to manage all of it. There have been a fair few bugs and issues we had to slog through earlier this year, but I’m happy to report that everything has been working really well for the last couple of months. But don’t take my word for it, here’s a comment sent in by Lily Yee last week. We’re sharing it with her approval:

Hey! I just opened this app for the first time in several weeks (full honesty) and I was SHOCKED by the noticeable, significant improvement in loading speed & reaction time. To your web dev and design team – great job! 🙂 it makes a real difference on the usability. I’ll be putting this app on the front page of my phone screen now!

So if you haven’t downloaded the app, please do so now by clicking here. It’s fun, and free, and even sometimes the forecast is accurate.

Fundraiser

We’re now into the final week of our fundraiser, and I mentioned our app above because the reason we’re able to provide it, and update it, and keep it junk free is because of contributions from our readers. Your donations and purchase of merchandise now allow us to plan for next year. We want to continue iterating on the app (more on this soon) as well as make some other major upgrades like improving the distribution of our newsletter. If you can help out, please do so here.

Monday

Our brief foray with cooler fall weather on Sunday has ended, with this weekend’s front moving back onshore as a warm front overnight. Winds this morning are light, from the southeast, with temperatures around 70 degrees. Accordingly, today will be rather warm, with highs in the low 80s despite mostly cloudy skies. We are going to see scattered (mostly light) showers during the daytime along with very humid air. By this evening, likely around 7 to 9 pm, a broken line of storms associated with a cold front will develop to the northwest of Houston. This line will slowly advance into the city during the late evening hours, and push off the coast after midnight. Damaging winds will be possible with this front, perhaps gusting up to 50 mph, with potentially some hail. Overall rain accumulations will vary widely, but most of us should pick up between 0.25 and 0.75 inch.

Tuesday

The initial push of cooler air with with this front will be fairly weak. As a result I expect highs of around 80 degrees on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and lower humidity. Low temperatures on Tuesday night should drop into the 50s.

Wednesday

A secondary push of colder air arrives overnight, into Wednesday morning, and this will result in breezier northerly conditions. Winds may gust out of the north up to 20 mph on Wednesday. Expect sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Thanksgiving

We’ll start the day clear and cool, and skies will be sunny throughout the day. Really, we have no weather concerns, with light winds expected and highs generally in the upper 60s. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 50 degrees, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The onshore flow resumes on Friday, and we are going to enter a period of mostly cloudy skies and increased rain chances by Saturday morning. High temperatures through Sunday should be in the low- to mid-70s, with modestly increasing humidity levels. Overall I think the area will pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall on Saturday and Sunday. If you have outdoor plans we’ll keep a close eye on the forecast for you. At this point I think showers will be intermittent rather than wall-to-wall, but we don’t have a good handle on the details yet.

Next week

At some point, perhaps on Monday, a stronger front should push into the region. This is likely to bring some colder conditions, with lows perhaps down to around 40 degrees next week. It does appear as though the first week of December, which is the first week of winter as well, will probably feel decidedly winter-like in Houston. But for now the forecast is still a bit uncertain.

In brief: There is a low-end risk for a severe storm or two on Monday evening across the area as cooler, drier air builds in. Thanksgiving looks stunning. We take a peek at the longer range today, as the hype machine builds for early December cold. While we believe there is a potential strong shot of cold coming, we do not currently believe it will be a damaging cold air outbreak.

Happy Sunday! We’re interrupting on the weekend to fine tune a couple points from Friday’s forecast and to discuss some of the potential cold weather risk after Thanksgiving weekend.

Fundraiser

Our fundraiser continues through this week, and then we close the merch store and proverbial Venmo! Thank you again to all who have contributed or bought some holiday gifts for friends or family yourself. Ten years in on this, and we remain so grateful for your support!

Heat records

First off, Friday’s 88 degree high ended up a record for the date and is now Houston’s hottest temperature on record so late in the calendar year, besting November 15, 1978 for that honor. Secondly, our streak of 80 degree days ended unceremoniously yesterday, with Bush only hitting 79 degrees. The streak finishes at 10 consecutive days, the 6th longest on record for November-February, with all others occurring in early November.

At Hobby, the streak continues, with 82 degrees yesterday marking 11 straight days. We also hit 90 degrees on Friday there, a new record for so late in the season and tying several days for hottest on record in November. 90 degrees was last set at Hobby on November 16th this year. This is the 3rd longest streak of 80s at Hobby and the longest so late in the year.

I feel like we’re just getting used to this by now, but statistically, this mid to late-November stretch will end up a remarkable one.

Today

No issues today. Enjoy the sunshine. Highs will be in the upper 70s after a low in the 50s in many spots this morning.

Monday

We’ll start the day off mostly cloudy with a little more humidity and scattered showers developing. They’ll be off and on and mostly light throughout the day. The much-advertised thunderstorms will arrive in the Brazos Valley and Aggieland during the late afternoon, bringing a chance of strong storms. That will then slide south and east, arriving in the northwest suburbs of Houston by about early evening. Most activity will lift to the north from there, bringing more numerous early evening storms up into Montgomery and Walker Counties.

Then, the front itself pushes into the northwest suburbs with a line of thunderstorms after 8 or 9 PM. That will push across the Houston area over the next few hours, arriving at the coast by about 1 to 3 AM. Storms will be strong with some gusty winds and lightning possible, along with heavy rain. We are outlined in a marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe weather tomorrow, with a slight risk (2/5) up toward College Station.

Tuesday/Wednesday/Thanksgiving Day

Showers will probably linger in Brazoria and Matagorda Counties through morning on Tuesday. Slightly drier air and gradual clearing will allow temperatures to push back to near 80 Tuesday afternoon except where clouds and showers linger. A much stronger push of cool, dry air arrives on Wednesday, this without any rain. Holiday travel on Wednesday should have minimal disruption by car or probably by air with minimal disruptions at the Northeast hubs, Atlanta, and only some gusty winds in Chicago.

This should allow Thanksgiving morning lows to take a dip into the 40s almost everywhere. Thanksgiving Day looks perfect with sunshine and highs into the 60s.

Beyond Thanksgiving

The forecast gets sloppy next weekend with a chance of showers returning to the picture. Again, we are skeptical about this as it relates to the Houston area specifically. But suffice to say, there will at least be a chance in the forecast.

Beyond that, the European AI model has rankled some people over the last few days, as it has shown significant cold dumping into the Plains and eventually Texas. I’ve even seen the February 2021 freeze event thrown around (irresponsibly) on social media as an analog. Currently, the European AIFS model forecast shows temperatures as much as 15 to 20 degrees below normal (compared to 30 to 50 below normal in February 2021).

Doing some napkin math, this would probably yield upper 20s to low 30s in the Houston, cold but not alarming. Almost all other reliable model guidance is warmer than this. But let’s just say that, yes, our first freeze of the season is possible after Thanksgiving weekend. Will it be something we have to worry about beyond a light freeze? At this point I would say probably not. But we’ll of course keep watching trends. European AI modeling has done a great job with hurricanes but it has yet to truly prove itself in terms of temperature forecasting.

In brief: A cool front today will bring a smattering of showers or a few thunderstorms to Houston, followed by continued warm but slightly less warm weather this weekend. A much stronger front aims at us for late Monday or early Tuesday, ushering in what we hope will be a spectacular Thanksgiving Day.

Good morning! Hang on one second, I think Josh Allen just got sacked again. Yep. Can confirm.

Annual Fundraiser

Black Friday is a week away, and our annual fundraiser is in the final stretch! We’ve been fortunate to have a fairly quiet weather year in Houston for a change. Still, we’ve got some fun holiday gift options that are uniquely Houston. Or you can just throw in a couple bucks if you’re able. Eric and I deliberately keep our fundraising for the site limited and confined to November so we can focus the rest of the year on information, content, and improvements to our operation for you. We know everyone has a personal budget for what news and information outlets they support, and we are so grateful and thankful to have your support.

Dang, has it been warm!

Yesterday was our 9th consecutive day of 80 degrees or more. We hit 86 degrees officially at Bush Airport, a new record for the date, breaking the previous record of 84 degrees set in 2011 and 1977. That’s now the third record high we’ve matched or beaten in this stretch.

I went back and looked at November and wintertime streaks of 80 degrees or more, and this now ranks as the sixth longest streak of 80 degrees or hotter in the November through February timeframe.

The last comparable streak of this length occurred last November when we did 13 days in a row to start the month of November. But a streak of this length this late in the year has only occurred one other time: December 2021-January 2022 when we hit 85 degrees on New Year’s Day during a 9 day streak.

So will we threaten the 13 day record? We probably won’t break it, but we may tie it. It should be at least 11 straight after today and tomorrow. But Sunday is the wild card day with a forecast high right on the fence of 80 degrees. Monday should warm back into the low 80s ahead of the front before we wipe it out completely Tuesday or Wednesday. Hopefully the Texans can string together more wins like we’re doing with 80s.

Today

As a meteorologist, you’d think we’d like good forecasting challenges. And most of us do. However, the story of the disturbance today has been rather maddening. Maybe it’s because we went from 2 to 4 inches of rain forecast earlier this week to NyQuil dose accumulations. Capital N, little y…. There is an expression in meteorology “When in drought, keep it out,” meaning rainfall chances. A lot of times modeling can get overzealous with rain risks in drought-y patterns. There’s a persistence to that kind of pattern. That said, we’re already also seeing some forecast “nudges” next week now too. But clearly models are struggling to handle this pattern in the lower latitudes over North America right now.

Anyway, here’s how today should unfold. Radar is mainly quiet for now with a couple showers up near Navasota and Huntsville. Scattered showers and a couple embedded thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon or early this evening across the area, probably near a Cleveland-Cypress-Wharton line. They will slowly crawl south and east overnight, perhaps lingering near coastal areas or down toward Freeport and Lake Jackson on Saturday morning.

The rain totals will be quite erratic with some places seeing perhaps 1 to 2 inches of rain, while most languish at a quarter inch or less.

Weekend

This weekend looks fairly benign. I don’t want to say we won’t see any rain at all; we could see lingering showers near the coast on Saturday and an isolated rogue shower, especially north and west of Houston on Sunday. But overall, any disruption to your plans should be minimal. As noted above, look for 80s on Saturday and around 80 or so on Sunday. Slightly cooler air filters in, so morning lows may be in the low 60s or even some upper-50s in outlying areas Sunday morning.

Monday & Tuesday

Things change more substantially early next week. A legitimate cold front is still on track to push through the area on late Monday or early Tuesday. We do expect more numerous or widespread showers and thunderstorms with this front compared to what we see today. That said, the forecast is by no means set in stone. We’ll reassess and update Sunday or, of course, Monday. Either way, look for a drop off in temperatures behind the front.

Wednesday

Good weather for travel it would appear! We kick off the holiday weekend with cooler temperatures, as highs will only be in the upper 60s to low 70s after morning lows in the 50s. Wednesday does look breezy as well, so just note that, particularly if your early holiday weekend plans include a boat.

Thanksgiving Day

Houston isn’t exactly known for nice weather on holidays. We lean on gallows humor to get through them. However, it looks spectacular on Thanksgiving as it stands right now. Morning lows should be in the 40s and 50s, so dress appropriately for one of the many turkey trots around the area. I will say, overnight modeling is trying to back off on this — again. So the map below may be optimistic on the cool side.

Highs will be in the 60s. Friday and the rest of the weekend looked good as of yesterday, but this morning the European model is trying up rainfall chances a bit. I’ll remain skeptical for now. Enjoy the weekend!

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the region’s ongoing, record-setting heat; our uncertain rain chances for this weekend, and an eventual cooldown next week. We also dive into the chatter about a ‘sudden stratospheric warming event,’ and what that might mean for Texas.

What is a stratospheric warming event, anyway?

In recent days there has been buzz about a sudden warming in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, about 5 to 25 miles above the surface, above the poles. This is the stratosphere, where the atmosphere is very thin. It lies above the troposphere, where we live, and most of our weather patterns develop. However, when there is a significant warming of the stratosphere over the poles it can influence conditions lower in the atmosphere. Such is the case with a “sudden stratospheric warming event.”

The first thing to understand is that that such events are poorly understood, both in terms of why they occur, and what their impacts are. However this stratospheric warming does, at times, lead to a weakening of the polar vortex that bottles up colder air at the poles of the planet. And it is possible that the present stratospheric warming event will weaken the polar vortex at the North Pole, and send some of this colder air shooting down into the Northern Hemisphere in about 10 days to two weeks.

Some of our AI modeling guidance suggests this will happen over North America. However, it is equally plausible at this point that the colder air will be released into Europe or Asia. For example, in the AI version of the European model we see the most significantly colder air pushed into Russia, with a lesser helping slipping down into the United States. In this scenario it would bring near-freezing temperatures to the Houston area during the early days of December. However this is just one outcome, and we would strongly caution wariness about such long-range forecasts.

Thursday

Ok, after our brief tour of global and upper atmospheric weather, let us return to our focus on Houston. It may not be stratospheric, but the city tied its record high of 85 degrees on Wednesday (previously set in 1985). Today’s record high is 84 degrees, and we probably will tie this record today as well, if not beat it. Conditions will remain very humid, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. This afternoon will be windier, with gusts as high as 20 mph, from the south. There will be a slight chance of rain today and tonight, perhaps 10 or 20 percent. Any showers that develop will pass quickly. Lows will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday

This will be another warm day, with temperatures in the mid-80s. A front will sag toward the area, and this will increase shower and (possibly) thunderstorm chances. However I must say that as we have gotten into the territory of higher resolution models they have really backed off on the potential for precipitation. I still think there’s a 50 percent chance of rain on Friday and Friday night, but the overall rain totals will be on the lower side, with most areas probably picking up less than one-half inch through Saturday. Lows Friday night will remain warm, likely in the upper 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weak front is going to move into Houston and stall out. This will have some interesting and unpredictable effects on our weather this weekend. It’s likely that some areas inland of Interstate 10 will see some drier and briefly cooler air, with perhaps the maximum extent of this nose of drier air occurring on Saturday night into Sunday morning. The presence of the stalled front will also mean that the region continues to see a decent chance of showers on Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well. These will not be wall to wall showers by any means, but should mostly be brief. However we can’t rule out a few thunderstorms. Anyway, my guess for temperatures this weekend is low 80s, with partly sunny skies. Some inland areas may drop into the lower 60s on Saturday night as the front reaches its furthest extent.

Next week

The ‘front’ should lift back north on Sunday only to be followed by a second front that looks to be stronger. This will bring a healthy chance of rain on Monday and Monday night. By Tuesday or Wednesday we should see an influx of cooler and drier air. My prediction for Thanksgiving Day remains for morning temperatures in the lower 50s, with highs in the upper 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Lows will bottom out on Friday and Saturday, probably. Anyway, it should feel more like late November in Houston, finally. Precise details to come.

Fundraiser

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