In brief: This post provides an update on our expectations for the winter storm next week, which is now increasingly likely to bring a hard freeze and snow to Houston. The period from Monday night through Wednesday morning could be challenging from a roads and airports standpoint.
Why we are posting on Friday afternoon
As we continue to see more model data, our confidence is increasing in a severe cold snap next week, along with the potential for measurable snowfall that could prove disruptive for travel plans on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Although the details remain impossible to forecast, it is now more likely than not that we will experience a serious winter storm in the Houston region four days from now.
How long do I have to prepare?
Conditions today are fairly comfortable outside, and tonight will be mild. Some very light showers will be possible overnight, ahead of the passage of a cold front on Saturday morning. However, as the colder air will be lagging behind somewhat, Saturday should be fine temperature-wise, in the upper-50s or so. By around sunset, however, temperatures will start to drop. A light freeze will be possible across much of the Houston metro area by as early as Sunday morning.
Sunday should be sunny, windy, and chilly. Temperatures on Monday morning will fall below freezing for pretty much the entire metro area, with a hard freeze (temperatures of 25 degrees, or below) possible along and north of Interstate 10. So any freeze preparations on pipes and plants should be completed no later than Sunday.
However, we likely will remain largely free of precipitation on MLK Day. So while it will be cold on Monday, with high temperatures only in the lower 40s, mobility should not be an issue. However, by Monday evening, we could start to see snowfall, and temperatures will drop below freezing pretty quickly. Travel after Monday evening may become hazardous.
Winter storm
At this time it looks like most of the precipitation that falls early next week will probably be snow. For some areas south of Houston, particularly in Brazoria and Matagorda counties, there may be more sleet or freezing rain. It’s not clear where that transition will occur, but it is entirely possible that Houston wakes up on Tuesday morning and there are 3 or 6 inches of snow on the ground. This would be the most snow Houston has received in at least two decades.
The bottom line is that we’re increasingly confident that temperatures will be well below freezing on Tuesday morning, and that there is likely to be precipitation. That means that whatever falls, is going to stick. And since temperatures may only briefly reach above freezing on Tuesday—and for some areas in Montgomery County and points north, temperatures may not rise above freezing on Tuesday—whatever falls may stick throughout the day and again for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
For that reason, we believe there is the potential for significant disruptions to mobility around Houston on Tuesday, and probably into Wednesday morning. Speaking of Wednesday morning, it actually looks to be the coldest of the period, with temperatures in the low 20s in Houston, and perhaps even lower depending on the extent of snow cover.
So if you’re making plans for next week, consider that much of the city could be shut down for Tuesday and part of Wednesday. Fortunately we should see sunshine on Wednesday, with temperatures warming into the 40s during the afternoon. This should help improve road conditions.
Preparations
Temperatures in parts of Houston will drop below 25 degrees as soon as Monday morning, and much of the region (with the possible exception of the coast) could see a hard freeze on either or both of Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. This is cold enough to threaten exposed pipes, sprinkler systems, and more. Here are some basic preparations to undertake:
- PLANTS. Protect tropical vegetation. Please note, with temperatures dropping this low, some vegetation will probably die regardless.
- PIPES. Protect any exposed outdoor pipes. Pipes in attics and along exterior walls of structures could freeze at these levels.
- SPRINKLERS. Sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained.
- ANIMALS. Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock and make sure water sources are not frozen.
Electricity
It is beyond the scope of this website to make predictions about the availability of electricity during this winter storm. However, there are two basic issues to consider. The first is power generation at plants. This is what caused widespread power issues during the winter storm during Valentines Day in 2021. We don’t think temperatures will be quite that cold this time, and the state of Texas made significant investments after that cold outbreak. So theoretically there should be electricity available to the grid managed by ERCOT. But we’ll see.
The other step is distribution, which is the lines and poles component. If we get snow that is better than freezing rain, which can stick to power lines, weigh them down, and cause them to snap. So that will be another factor to monitor.
At this time we don’t anticipate major power disruptions during the winter storm, but certainly that is not something we can guarantee.
Our next update will come on Saturday morning.