It’s not the Rollercoaster of Love but rather temperatures that we’ll ride over the next week

In brief: Houston should strap in for a stretch of ups and downs in the temperature department culminating in a return to winter-like cold next week. In between, a slight chance of strong storms east of Houston Saturday, and another round of rain Tuesday into Wednesday. Our biggest question mark is exactly how cold it gets next week.

Happy Valentine’s Day to all! Of course, we don’t need a singular day out of the year to know you love us. We love you too. (No, but seriously, we always want to share our appreciation of your support, so thank you). If you love warm weather or you love cold weather or loathe either, we have something in the forecast for you.

Today & tonight

There are some lower and mid-level clouds moving across the region this morning, as warmer, more humid air is trying to begin returning to the region. While the sun may poke out here and there, look for mostly a cloudy-ish day. A few showers or a very isolated thunderstorm may move through later this afternoon. The vast majority of the day should be dry, however. Highs will eventually reach the upper-50s, though it may not occur until later in the evening due to the clouds. In fact, temperatures should actually keep rising tonight until they reach the mid-60s on Saturday morning.

Saturday

The main concern for Saturday will be severe weather potential. We are fairly confident that the bulk, if not all severe weather will remain to our east tomorrow. If you are traveling into Louisiana or Mississippi, there could be a fairly noteworthy severe weather outbreak, however.

Saturday’s severe weather risk pretty low for the Houston area, but it will increase quickly to our east. (NOAA SPC)

That said, we will likely still see showers and storms around the Houston area throughout the day but in a bit of a disjointed, improv, hit and miss type fashion. Look for that throughout the day, likely ending as perhaps a narrow line of developing thunderstorms when a cold front exits the area after 3 or 4 PM. Temperatures will push well into the 70s on Saturday, possibly even near 80 degrees in spots south of I-10 or to our east.

It’ll be downright balmy tomorrow with a few spots having a chance to hit 80 degrees, mainly to our south and east. (Pivotal Weather)

Sunday

Oh, you’ll be greeted by a casual 35 degree drop in temperatures on Sunday morning, from just shy of 80 to near 40 degrees. Some areas will likely dip into the 30s too. It will also be on the breezy side, especially near the coast with Galveston likely seeing some wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. So expect Sunday to feel a lot more like winter. The winds will lighten up and temps should warm into the 50s or even near 60 though, so it won’t be too bad of an afternoon.

Temperatures should drop about 30 to 35 degrees between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

Monday & Tuesday

Monday, we rise to near 60 degrees, while Tuesday should push into the mid-60s. Watch for showers by Tuesday afternoon.

Back to winter

A much more aggressive return to winter is in the cards for later next week. The showers on Tuesday afternoon will precede a storm system that passes by on Wednesday morning. To be frank, the model handling of this storm has left a lot to be desired, as there have been a lot of run to run shifts, with even some model runs implying rain ends as sleet or snow north of Houston. That’s not what we’d call the “base case” outcome, but it’s out there as a minor possibility at least. Whatever the case, we have a couple more days to pin this down, so I’d just ask you to bear with us.

Because of the uncertainty we know that while it will likely get quite cold later next week, we aren’t quite entirely sure of the amplitude yet. I would suspect that Houston proper sees upper-20s for low temperatures, while outlying areas would be somewhat colder. But there is a wide variety of possible outcomes to the point where realistically Houston could be as cold as 20 degrees or as “mild” as 35 degrees by Thursday morning. We are fairly confident that Thursday morning would be the coldest morning.

Houston may dip into the mid-20s or even a bit colder next Thursday morning. There is still a good deal of uncertainty still, and realistically, anything from as cold as 20 degrees to as “mild” as 35 degrees is on the table. (Pivotal Weather)

If you live north of Houston, get your plant coverings prepared once again. In Houston and points south, just keep watching and waiting. More to come on this.

Winter roars back into Houston after a sizzling start to February, and even colder weather is on the way

In brief: The last two weeks have felt very un-winterlike in Houston, but that has changed with the arrival of the first of three strong fronts. Among the things we’re watching for is the potential for a few storms on Saturday, and very cold temperatures during the second half of next week.

The twelve days of February

We started the month of February on an incredible hot streak, including four consecutive days of setting or tying record high temperatures. So far this month, the average monthly temperatures has been 15 degrees above normal, and it’s felt like we’ve been in the middle of spring rather than winter. However, we are now about to flip the script.

Highs and lows during the first 12 days of the month, compared to normal. (National Weather Service)

The remainder of the month should bring near-normal and below-normal temperatures, with the potential for freezing temperatures here or there. We are not going to cancel out the extremely warm start to the month, but Houston will feel like winter again—which it should, because we are still in the middle of February.

Thursday

It’s cold this morning, and it won’t warm up much. Temperatures range from the upper 30s north of Houston to the upper 40s right along the coast. Although we should see some pockets of sunshine today, a stiff northerly wind (at times gusting up to 30 mph) will make the high temperature of about 50 degrees still feel rather cold. Conditions will remain breezy tonight, as winds shift to come from the east. Expect lows to fall into the mid-40s in Houston.

Friday

Expect a mostly cloudy day, with temperatures a bit warmer, in the lower 60s. As the flow turns more southerly, we’ll see an increase in atmospheric moisture that could bring some spotty, light showers back into the region. However, overall rain chances appear to be fairly low. Temperatures will not cool off much on Friday night, in fact they’ll start rising after midnight as we continue to see a warmer, southerly flow.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Saturday night. (Weather Bell)

Saturday

This will be a warmer, potentially unsettled day with high temperatures in the upper 70s. There will be a chance of light showers during the daytime, potentially with a line of showers and thunderstorms passing through during the afternoon or early evening hours. Overall accumulations don’t look super high (likely less than half an inch), and while there is the potential for some damaging winds the dynamics are not particularly favorable for severe storms. We’ll keep an eye on it. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the lower 40s.

Sunday and Monday

This will be a cold day, albeit one with mostly sunny skies. Expect breezy conditions and highs perhaps in the low 50s. Expect a cold night on Sunday, with temperatures in Houston dropping into the 30s, and a light freeze possible for some inland areas. On Monday, President’s Day, we can expect more sunshine, and somewhat warmer temperatures in the upper 50s to 60 degrees. It should be a nice day for kids to be off from school.

A very cold air mass will move down into the continental United States next week. (Weather Bell)

Next week

After chilly conditions on Monday, Houston will warm back up on Tuesday and Wednesday. And then? Well, a very serious outbreak of Arctic air is going to move into the central United States. The question is how far the bulk of this air mass drops into Texas, and whether it reaches the Gulf coast. As a result, there is a wide variance in low temperatures during the second half of next week, and I would say anything from mid-20s to lower-40s is possible in Houston. Certainly it is something we’ll be watching for you.

Showers and thunderstorms possible today as a cold front moves through

In brief: The first of several cold fronts will arrive in Houston today, bringing with it a decent chance of rain and possibly a few storms. We’ll warm back up on Saturday before another, stronger front knocks most of Houston into the 30s by Monday of next week.

Wednesday

After an abnormally warm start to the month, Houston will see the first substantial frontal passage of February later today. We can expect a (probably broken) line of showers and thunderstorms to move through the area this morning before noon, from west to east, before drier air moves in from the northwest this afternoon. I don’t expect anything too wild and crazy from the rain showers, but it’s Houston so be prepared for the possibility of some thunderstorms and briefly heavy rainfall. Highs today will crest at about 70 degrees this morning before dropping into the 60s this afternoon, and the 50s this evening.

Lows on Thursday morning will fee more seasonable across Houston. (Weather Bell)

Thursday

Lows on Thursday morning will be in the low 40s, and with a chilly northerly flow expect high temperatures to only climb into the mid-50s. We will see mostly sunny skies, however. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the 40s as winds turn more easterly.

Friday

Skies will be partly sunny on Friday, with highs likely climbing into the mid-60s. As atmospheric moisture levels rise we could see a few scattered showers develop later in the day. Friday night looks to be mild, with lows only dropping into the upper 50s or lower 60s.

Saturday

Humidity levels will spike on Saturday, with high temperatures likely pushing toward 80 degrees as we see a surge of warmer air ahead of the next cool front. Although the timing is still a bit uncertain, this front likely moves through on Saturday afternoon or evening, and it should bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms with it. We’ll see about the dynamics for storms, but right now they don’t appear to be overly favorable in the Houston metro area. Lows on Saturday night are likely to plunge in the wake of the front, dropping to about 40 degrees.

Sunday

Expect clear, sunny, and cold conditions with high temperatures of around 50 degrees. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the 30s for much of Houston, and we cannot rule out a light freeze for some inland areas.

A light freeze is possible on Monday morning for parts of the Houston metro area. (Weather Bell)

Next week

We’ll be chilly on Monday and Monday night before a warmup next week, followed by what appears to be another fairly strong cold front on Tuesday or Wednesday. This will, once again, bring the chance of a light freeze to Houston by Thursday morning or so. Winter is not over yet.

Widespread rainfall likely today and tonight; also don’t plant your gardens just yet

In brief: Today’s post discusses the likelihood of widespread rainfall today and Wednesday ahead of the first of several decently strong cold fronts. Speaking of which, there’s the possibility of a freeze over the next 10 days, so we don’t advise planting tender plants just yet.

Winter is not over yet

Houston has had an anomalously warm start to February, with an average temperature of 72.1 degrees. This is a shocking 16.2 degrees above normal through the first third of the month. Beginning Wednesday we’re going to enter a cooler, more seasonal pattern. Looking ahead, global models are pointing to the possibility of two stronger cold fronts next week.

The first of these arrives Sunday, and the second possibly by next Thursday or so. One or maybe both of these could drive Houston’s lows into the 30s, and there’s a distinct chance of a light freeze about 10 days from now. I’m not saying it will happen, but it’s definitely possible. So hold off on gardening for a little while longer.

Texas is experiencing all four seasons this morning, in terms of low temperatures. (Weather Bell)

Tuesday

Today is likely to be a fairly wet day. We don’t really have any significant flooding concerns, but streets could pond over amid some of the stronger showers or thunderstorms. The rain will be somewhat scattered this morning before showers become more widespread this afternoon as the atmosphere turns unstable. Showers will likely peak in coverage this afternoon before rain chances diminish somewhat overnight. This won’t be the end of the rain, as we are likely to see another round of showers on Wednesday morning along with the front.

Temperatures this morning are generally in the upper 60s across much of Houston, and they’re going to remain there all day with cloudy skies and the potential for rain. Winds will be gusty, varying from the south, east, and northwest. Lows tonight will only fall into the low- to mid-60s for most locations.

Wednesday

Additional showers are possible on Wednesday morning and into the early afternoon hours, ahead of the actual cool front. Between now and Wednesday afternoon I expect most of Houston to receive 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, although amounts could be a little bit higher for areas well inland, including The Woodlands and points north. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s for most before drier air moves in during the evening hours. Temperatures will start to fall before midnight, and by early Thursday morning temperatures for most of the area should dip into the upper 40s.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Thursday morning. (Weather Bell)

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Thursday will see gusty, northerly winds and Thursday night will be quite chilly, in the low- to mid-40s. Friday night will be a bit warmer, in the 50s, as the flow turns more southerly.

Saturday

A warmer day, with highs in the mid-70s. We’ll again see the potential for some widespread (mostly light?) showers ahead of the next front. Accumulations don’t look overly impressive, but bear in mind the potential for rain if you’re planning outdoor activities. Colder air likely arrives overnight, pushing lows on Sunday morning into the 40s.

Sunday

Sunshine returns for the second half of the weekend, but with a colder, northerly flow high temperatures will likely be in the 50s. Lows on Sunday night could drop into the upper 30s in Houston, give or take. We’ll see.

Houston’s temperatures and dewpoints will be riding quite the roller coaster for the next 10 days. (National Weather Service)

Next week

Our roller coaster weather rolls on, with highs by the middle of next week likely rebounding into the 70s. However, most of our guidance points toward a fairly strong front for the second half of next week. This is when I think there’s at least a decent chance to see a widespread freeze in Houston.