In brief: Houston is quite chilly this morning, and we’re dropping down another notch tonight. But following this we’ll be solidly on a warming trend heading into the new year. This weekend looks quite pleasant. Also, we take a peek at what weather might be like for the Houston Marathon.

Freeze line

Temperatures are comfortably above freezing this morning across the Houston metro area, but what about tonight? We are going to see ideal conditions for heat to radiate back into space this evening, including clear skies and light winds. This will bring a light freeze into the Houston region. My sense is that urbanized parts of Houston and coastal areas will remain just above 32 degrees, but that inland areas and outlying suburbs, such as Katy, probably will briefly freeze tonight. Essentially, if you experienced freezing conditions back on Dec. 15, there is a decent chance you will again tonight. These temperatures are not cold enough to affect pipes or anything like that, but do take care of sensitive plants and pets.

Tuesday

We are going to see solid sunshine today (and most of the week). This will allow highs to warm into the 50s today, with light northerly winds, before our chilly night tonight.

New Year’s Eve

After a cold start, expect highs in the mid-60s on Wednesday with sunny skies. Light winds will turn west, and then southwest over the course of the day and evening. We have no weather concerns for the New Year’s Eve holiday aside from chilly temperatures during the evening, likely dropping into the 40s by the time we ring in the new year.

New Year’s Day

With a southerly flow in place we’ll see a warmer day to start 2026, with highs in the lower 70s. As moisture levels creep up, we may see a few more clouds in the sky, although I expect plenty of sunshine. Lows on Thursday night will be warmer, perhaps dropping only into the lower 60s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Friday looks downright warm with highs in the lower 80s and sunshine. The weekend should be a bit cooler (although there is still some uncertainty here) as a modest front pushes down from the northwest. For now let’s go with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, with mostly sunny skies. Really, it looks to be like ideal weather for most outdoor activities.

Next week and the Houston Marathon

The first half of next week looks to be rather warm for January, with highs likely in the vicinity of the upper 70s and nights perhaps in the upper 50s. If you’ve been wondering about rain chances, those start to pick up around Wednesday or Thursday. That’s not to say rain is likely, but it does appear to be possible.

If you’re planning to run the Houston Half or Full Marathon, then you’re keenly interested in conditions for Sunday, January 11. I just completed my final long run early on Monday, so my body is (mostly) ready. What about the weather? I’m afraid the forecast is still pretty uncertain at this point. It’s possible that a weak-ish front arrives by Wednesday or Thursday of next week (bringing some rain), but depending on the timing of this front I think we might see a warming trend by Friday or Saturday. In that case we need another front to bring temperatures down for Sunday. This appears to be possible, although not certain.

My best guess is for low temperatures in the 50s on Sunday morning, with highs rising to the 60s. In terms of wind and rain, that is going to be depend heavily on whether we get that second front to drop temperatures for the marathon. In summary: there’s just not much clarity yet on running conditions. When there is, I will definitely let you know.

In brief: Houston is back to more classic December fare today, with low clouds, a gusty wind, and temps in the 40s. We’ll have a couple chilly nights tonight and tomorrow night before we make yet another run toward 80 by Friday. New Year’s plans look delightful, with no weather concerns at all right now.

Whew! It feels quite different outside this morning. Here’s a map of our 24-hour temperature changes.

This is our first morning in the 40s since December 20th. In that stretch, we’ve had 8 days in the 80s and 1 day near 80 (79° on Christmas Eve). Only 2012 and 2021 saw more 80-degree December days. We also set or tied 6 record highs in that stretch, hitting 84° on Sunday, our 2nd warmest December day on record. But that’s done for now. And so we discuss cool temperatures.

Today and Tuesday

That wind is going to remain with us most of this morning. By afternoon, it will begin to wind down, though it’ll remain a bit breezy. Gusts have been north of 50 mph at Hooks Airport in Tomball and in Galveston, 48 mph at Hobby, and 40 mph at Bush. Temperatures won’t go very far today. If the low clouds can clear out this afternoon, we’ll attempt to get into the low-50s as the models suggest. If the low clouds stay put, I may be apt to undercut model guidance and say we limp into the upper-40s at best.

Tonight will be cold, and there is a chance that a few spots get down around the freezing mark. It will probably just be the Conroes and isolated pockets in the Brazos Valleys of the world that get there thanks to a continued breeze and continued clouds. But either way, expect 30s away from the coast, a few low 30s north and west and 40 to low 40s at the coast. Tomorrow night will be a bit colder.

Tuesday looks splendid with sunshine developing. We should easily push into the 50s with lighter winds. Thanks to those clear skies and lighter winds, Tuesday night should be a bit colder than tonight.

Expect more 30s area-wide and a chance of a light freeze creeping closer than Conroe, perhaps in some of the more wooded areas in Montgomery, Liberty, and northern Harris Counties or isolated rural pockets of Fort Bend and Wharton Counties.

New Year’s Eve & New Year’s Day

We start to turn the corner Wednesday back upward into the 60s. Thursday may even push close to or past 70 degrees. For most NYE festivities on Wednesday, it looks great: Sunny and pleasant for the kiddos celebrating Noon Years and clear skies, light winds, and evening temps in the 50s, dropping into the 40s around or after Midnight. Enjoy!

Friday into the weekend

Temperatures should peak on Friday, as we’ll make yet another run toward 80 degrees. It’s probably notable that most of the area has not seen any appreciable rainfall since the beginning of December, which likely isn’t hurting these temps at all.

Whatever the case, the forecast trends a bit less confident beyond Friday, with some models indicating a bit of a small cool down, while others say Friday won’t be our last attempt to hit 80 degrees. Stay tuned.

In brief: Merry Christmas, everyone. We hope the holiday was wonderful for you. We’ve got three more days before a strong front arrives, and then we’re watching for the possibility of a light freeze in parts of Houston. Also, some readers explain why they like fog!

Remembering Neil Frank

Word that Dr. Neil Frank had died arrived shortly after I hit ‘publish’ on Wednesday’s post, so this remembrance is coming a little late. In any case, I first moved to Houston in 1997, and for the next decade he was the meteorologist I watched most on television. I always had a lot of respect for Frank because of his longtime leadership of the National Hurricane Center. He and I were not particularly close, but from time to time he would write me notes about my coverage of weather and related issues at the Houston Chronicle. I always enjoyed those interactions. What I learned most from Frank is the importance of not just scientific rigor in forecasting, but also the value of clear communication, personal warmth, and humor. In that sense, he lives on here. I offer his family and friends, as well as his former colleagues at KHOU, our best wishes from the whole Space City Weather team.

Readers share reasons to embrace fog

We were slightly critical of fog a couple of days ago, and I asked readers who did not mind it to explain why. You replied with some fun responses, so, as we deal with fog for a couple of more days before winter returns on Sunday night, I though I would share some of them.

• ajackson shared a poem by Carl Sandburg:

The fog comes
on little cat feet.

It sits looking
over harbor and city
on silent haunches
and then moves on.

• Cecilia sent in an email to say she likes the way it dampens sound: “It softens sounds. Sometimes to the point of silence. Living in Houston close to the loop, silence is a rare welcomed event.” And she’s right. The reasons for this are two fold. First, when it’s foggy it just means there are more tiny droplets of water in the air. This attenuates sound waves, especially at a higher frequency (or pitch). Fun fact: this is the reason why fog horns blow at a very low pitch, so their sound carries further. The second reason fog sounds quieter, I think, is because fewer people are out and about when it gets really thick.

• A pilot wrote in to say fog is a good chance to brush up on flying skills: “You asked for a reason I like fog, here it is. As a pilot, foggy weather is a great chance to brush up on flying instrument approaches. Just as long as it’s not too foggy at my home airport. If the ceiling gets much below 200-300 feet or visibility below 1/2 mile, it gets dangerous to impossible to land.

• Paul said fog should be best thought of as Southern snow: “In the south having lived here 90% of my life it is, to me, like southern snow! Everything is quiet but not as cold as snow. It wraps you into an intimate, quiet, and comforting blanket. Time stands still. All is as quiet as a recent snowfall except most of the time you’re not freezing your arse off!!”

Friday and Saturday

Really, these days will just be more of the same. We can expect high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s, with plenty of humidity. Nights will be warm and muggy, with lows falling only into the upper 60s for most locations. Winds, generally, will be light from the south. We’ll have a mix of clouds and sunshine. And that’s about it.

Sunday

This will be another warm day. In fact, with compression ahead of the front, we might see highs pushing into the low 80s for much of the region. Cooler temperatures will eventually arrive on Sunday evening, or during the overnight hours. When you wake up on Monday morning, temperatures will be much colder, likely in the 40s. Speaking of the frontal passage, there may be some brief, light to moderate showers on Sunday night with its passage along with a few thunderstorms. They should not last long as the front pushes through.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday will be sharply colder. Daytime temperatures on both days will likely peak at around 50 degrees, and conditions on Monday should feel even chillier due to fairly gusty winds. Both days should see partly to mostly sunny skies. We’re closely watching for the possibility of a light freeze in Houston, which will depend on a variety of factors including winds, clouds, and just how cold a narrow wedge of air near the surface can get on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. For now I’ll predict that most of metro Houston lands just above freezing, in the ballpark of 33 to 36 degrees. But it should be fairly close, and you should be prepared for the possibility of sub-freezing temperatures similar to what we experienced 10 days ago. A freeze is more likely for areas outside of Houston’s urban core, and away from the coast.

Highs on New Year’s Eve should reach about 60 degrees, but lows that night will drop into the 40s. I’m not concerned about rains or winds, but conditions will still be fairly chilly if you’re outside as you ring in the new year. We should be around 70 degrees for highs to end next week, with mild nights probably somewhere in the 50s.

In brief: In this Christmas Eve update we discuss all of the fog recorded by Houston recently. Why has there been so much? When is it going away? Will Rudolph find his way tonight? Also, next week’s cooldown looks fairly stout, sending nighttime temperatures into the 30s.

All about fog, because it’s not going away

Ugh. That’s the typical reaction you’ll get from a meteorologist when it comes to fog. It’s no fun to forecast, and it’s no fun to drive through. About the only thing fog is good for, in my opinion, is establishing a really atmospheric scene in the movies, like the opening battle in the original Gladiator. But aside from that? Ugh. If you’ve got reasons to love fog, I’d like to hear them.

Anyway, the main engine of fog in the greater Houston region during the late fall, winter, and early spring months is the Gulf. By this time of year we have had enough cool fronts come down that the near-shore waters of the Gulf, and Galveston Bay, have generally cooled down to 60 to 65 degrees. (You can check the data for yourself, here).

The important thing is that at night, and in the morning hours, air temperatures remain a little bit warmer than water temperatures, even without the Sun shining. So when we’re in a steamy pattern like we’ve been in, you’ve got this warm and humid air moving over the colder water. This cools the air to the point of saturation, which means the air is saturated with water vapor. This occurs when the air temperature equals the dewpoint temperature. So presto, we’ve got a big fog machine that gets turned on every night. This is known as marine fog.

Houston is susceptible to another kind of fog over inland areas, that forms at night when the air temperature starts to cool. Because the air is already fairly humid, the temperature does not have to drop that far to reach saturation. This process generally needs light winds, so that the lower and more humid air at the surface does not mix with slightly drier air above. This is known as “radiation fog,” and it goes away as the air temperature rises along with the Sun in the morning. This is the origin of phrases like the Sun is “burning off” the fog. In reality, the air temperature is rising above the dewpoint temperature, causing the fog to evaporate.

This foggy pattern is going to be with us until we get a wind shift (from the north rather than southeast), which is likely to happen on Sunday.

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day

The next two days are going to be more or less the same as we’ve experienced so far this week. They’re going to start out with patchy fog, followed by temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s, and partly cloudy skies. Nights will be warm, generally in the mid-60s. Rain chances are low to non-existent. If you’re wondering how my long-range Christmas forecast (issued 12 days ago!) did, here you go:

I’m sorry I was not wrong.

Friday and Saturday

The end of the week should continue to see warm and fairly humid weather. If anything, we should see a little more sunshine, and this will push air temperatures to 80 degrees, or the low 80s, for many records. We have already tied several high records this week, and we are apparently gunning for more. Nights remain with, with a chance of patchy fog.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday should be fairly warm as well, with highs pushing into the upper 70s, to possibly 80 degrees. A strong front is coming, but it’s now unlikely to reach our region before Sunday evening or the overnight hours. After this we’ll have a few cold days next week, with highs likely in the 50s, and lows in the 30s and 40s. I don’t think the majority of the metro area will see a freeze on Tuesday morning, but it’s a possibility we’ll be watching for as the mercury bottoms out. Temperatures should rebound a little by New Year’s Eve into the 60s, but at this point I suspect temperatures that night, heading into New Year’s Day will be chilly and in the 40s. So it will be fairly cold if you’re planning to be outside for revelries. The end of next week looks a little warmer.

From all of us at Space City Weather, we would like to wish you a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. See you on Friday morning.