In brief: A cool front today will bring a smattering of showers or a few thunderstorms to Houston, followed by continued warm but slightly less warm weather this weekend. A much stronger front aims at us for late Monday or early Tuesday, ushering in what we hope will be a spectacular Thanksgiving Day.

Good morning! Hang on one second, I think Josh Allen just got sacked again. Yep. Can confirm.

Annual Fundraiser

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Dang, has it been warm!

Yesterday was our 9th consecutive day of 80 degrees or more. We hit 86 degrees officially at Bush Airport, a new record for the date, breaking the previous record of 84 degrees set in 2011 and 1977. That’s now the third record high we’ve matched or beaten in this stretch.

I went back and looked at November and wintertime streaks of 80 degrees or more, and this now ranks as the sixth longest streak of 80 degrees or hotter in the November through February timeframe.

The last comparable streak of this length occurred last November when we did 13 days in a row to start the month of November. But a streak of this length this late in the year has only occurred one other time: December 2021-January 2022 when we hit 85 degrees on New Year’s Day during a 9 day streak.

So will we threaten the 13 day record? We probably won’t break it, but we may tie it. It should be at least 11 straight after today and tomorrow. But Sunday is the wild card day with a forecast high right on the fence of 80 degrees. Monday should warm back into the low 80s ahead of the front before we wipe it out completely Tuesday or Wednesday. Hopefully the Texans can string together more wins like we’re doing with 80s.

Today

As a meteorologist, you’d think we’d like good forecasting challenges. And most of us do. However, the story of the disturbance today has been rather maddening. Maybe it’s because we went from 2 to 4 inches of rain forecast earlier this week to NyQuil dose accumulations. Capital N, little y…. There is an expression in meteorology “When in drought, keep it out,” meaning rainfall chances. A lot of times modeling can get overzealous with rain risks in drought-y patterns. There’s a persistence to that kind of pattern. That said, we’re already also seeing some forecast “nudges” next week now too. But clearly models are struggling to handle this pattern in the lower latitudes over North America right now.

Anyway, here’s how today should unfold. Radar is mainly quiet for now with a couple showers up near Navasota and Huntsville. Scattered showers and a couple embedded thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon or early this evening across the area, probably near a Cleveland-Cypress-Wharton line. They will slowly crawl south and east overnight, perhaps lingering near coastal areas or down toward Freeport and Lake Jackson on Saturday morning.

The rain totals will be quite erratic with some places seeing perhaps 1 to 2 inches of rain, while most languish at a quarter inch or less.

Weekend

This weekend looks fairly benign. I don’t want to say we won’t see any rain at all; we could see lingering showers near the coast on Saturday and an isolated rogue shower, especially north and west of Houston on Sunday. But overall, any disruption to your plans should be minimal. As noted above, look for 80s on Saturday and around 80 or so on Sunday. Slightly cooler air filters in, so morning lows may be in the low 60s or even some upper-50s in outlying areas Sunday morning.

Monday & Tuesday

Things change more substantially early next week. A legitimate cold front is still on track to push through the area on late Monday or early Tuesday. We do expect more numerous or widespread showers and thunderstorms with this front compared to what we see today. That said, the forecast is by no means set in stone. We’ll reassess and update Sunday or, of course, Monday. Either way, look for a drop off in temperatures behind the front.

Wednesday

Good weather for travel it would appear! We kick off the holiday weekend with cooler temperatures, as highs will only be in the upper 60s to low 70s after morning lows in the 50s. Wednesday does look breezy as well, so just note that, particularly if your early holiday weekend plans include a boat.

Thanksgiving Day

Houston isn’t exactly known for nice weather on holidays. We lean on gallows humor to get through them. However, it looks spectacular on Thanksgiving as it stands right now. Morning lows should be in the 40s and 50s, so dress appropriately for one of the many turkey trots around the area. I will say, overnight modeling is trying to back off on this — again. So the map below may be optimistic on the cool side.

Highs will be in the 60s. Friday and the rest of the weekend looked good as of yesterday, but this morning the European model is trying up rainfall chances a bit. I’ll remain skeptical for now. Enjoy the weekend!

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the region’s ongoing, record-setting heat; our uncertain rain chances for this weekend, and an eventual cooldown next week. We also dive into the chatter about a ‘sudden stratospheric warming event,’ and what that might mean for Texas.

What is a stratospheric warming event, anyway?

In recent days there has been buzz about a sudden warming in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, about 5 to 25 miles above the surface, above the poles. This is the stratosphere, where the atmosphere is very thin. It lies above the troposphere, where we live, and most of our weather patterns develop. However, when there is a significant warming of the stratosphere over the poles it can influence conditions lower in the atmosphere. Such is the case with a “sudden stratospheric warming event.”

The first thing to understand is that that such events are poorly understood, both in terms of why they occur, and what their impacts are. However this stratospheric warming does, at times, lead to a weakening of the polar vortex that bottles up colder air at the poles of the planet. And it is possible that the present stratospheric warming event will weaken the polar vortex at the North Pole, and send some of this colder air shooting down into the Northern Hemisphere in about 10 days to two weeks.

Some of our AI modeling guidance suggests this will happen over North America. However, it is equally plausible at this point that the colder air will be released into Europe or Asia. For example, in the AI version of the European model we see the most significantly colder air pushed into Russia, with a lesser helping slipping down into the United States. In this scenario it would bring near-freezing temperatures to the Houston area during the early days of December. However this is just one outcome, and we would strongly caution wariness about such long-range forecasts.

Thursday

Ok, after our brief tour of global and upper atmospheric weather, let us return to our focus on Houston. It may not be stratospheric, but the city tied its record high of 85 degrees on Wednesday (previously set in 1985). Today’s record high is 84 degrees, and we probably will tie this record today as well, if not beat it. Conditions will remain very humid, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. This afternoon will be windier, with gusts as high as 20 mph, from the south. There will be a slight chance of rain today and tonight, perhaps 10 or 20 percent. Any showers that develop will pass quickly. Lows will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday

This will be another warm day, with temperatures in the mid-80s. A front will sag toward the area, and this will increase shower and (possibly) thunderstorm chances. However I must say that as we have gotten into the territory of higher resolution models they have really backed off on the potential for precipitation. I still think there’s a 50 percent chance of rain on Friday and Friday night, but the overall rain totals will be on the lower side, with most areas probably picking up less than one-half inch through Saturday. Lows Friday night will remain warm, likely in the upper 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weak front is going to move into Houston and stall out. This will have some interesting and unpredictable effects on our weather this weekend. It’s likely that some areas inland of Interstate 10 will see some drier and briefly cooler air, with perhaps the maximum extent of this nose of drier air occurring on Saturday night into Sunday morning. The presence of the stalled front will also mean that the region continues to see a decent chance of showers on Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well. These will not be wall to wall showers by any means, but should mostly be brief. However we can’t rule out a few thunderstorms. Anyway, my guess for temperatures this weekend is low 80s, with partly sunny skies. Some inland areas may drop into the lower 60s on Saturday night as the front reaches its furthest extent.

Next week

The ‘front’ should lift back north on Sunday only to be followed by a second front that looks to be stronger. This will bring a healthy chance of rain on Monday and Monday night. By Tuesday or Wednesday we should see an influx of cooler and drier air. My prediction for Thanksgiving Day remains for morning temperatures in the lower 50s, with highs in the upper 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Lows will bottom out on Friday and Saturday, probably. Anyway, it should feel more like late November in Houston, finally. Precise details to come.

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In brief: In today’s post we discuss the ongoing, record heat Houston is experiencing this month. We also look ahead to increased rain chances by Thursday night, and a significant pattern change next week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Record heat update

Houston’s official high temperature on Tuesday was 86 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, breaking the previous record high of 85 degrees, set in 1948. The record high for today is 85 degrees (set in 1985). It’s going to be a close run, and my guess is that the city will tie the previous record. As for Thursday and Friday, the daily record highs are both 84 degrees. I suspect we will be close on both days, or tie the mark. Our flirtation with record highs should end Saturday, although we will remain anomalously warm into the weekend.

Wednesday

Due to light winds and high dewpoints (in line with low temperatures) we are seeing some fairly dense fog across the region this morning. You’ll want to take a little extra time in getting to work or school. This should clear out by around 9 am. Unlikely previous sunny days, however, we are likely to see partly to mostly cloudy skies. This should limit high temperatures to the low- to mid-80s. It is going to feel rather humid, however, as dewpoints in the 70s are very sticky for November. We also are likely to see some isolated to scattered rain showers later today, but overall chances are probably only on the order of 20 percent. Lows tonight will be muggy again, likely dropping only to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Thursday

This day will be a lot like Wednesday, albeit with a couple of differences later on. For one, the winds from the southeast should be a little more pronounced. They may gust up to 20 mph during the afternoon hours. And by Thursday night an approaching (and alas, dying) front will bring an increased chance of showers into the greater Houston region. I still expect these to be fairly scattered in nature, but we could see a few thunderstorms by early Friday morning.

Friday

This will be another mostly cloudy, humid day, likely with highs in the low 80s. The real question for the forecast is the extent of showers and thunderstorms. We’ll have plenty of atmospheric moisture, but it remains to be seen how far the front pushes into Houston, and how much is perturbs the atmosphere. For now I think we have about a 50 percent chance of showers. Note that the rain accumulation map shown below is for totals through next Tuesday, so don’t expect this much on Friday. Most of us probably will pick up 0.25 to 0.75 inch through Friday.

Saturday and Sunday

Over the weekend I think we’ll see the front stall over Houston and then, eventually, I do believe we probably will see some slightly cooler and drier air ooze into the region. So what does that mean for conditions locally? I expect highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees on both days, but by Sunday morning we might see lows in Houston in the 60 to 65 degree range. This is not cold by any stretch, but it would be cooler than we have been experiencing. As for rain chances, I’ll ballpark a 30 percent chance for both days, with overall modest accumulations. In short, if you have outdoor activities, you should be prepared for a brief shower (but not expectant).

Thanksgiving week cooldown

Another, stronger system is expected to approach the area on Sunday night or Monday of next week. This should set the stage for rainier weather on Sunday night into Tuesday morning, and the gradual influx of cooler and drier air. By Tuesday or Wednesday highs should be in the 70s, with nights in the 50s. Last week I predicted a high temperature of 68 degrees on Thanksgiving Day itself, and I think that’s still a reasonable expectation.

It’s looking like the latter half of next week, particularly Friday and Saturday mornings, will be on the chilly side, with lows possibly in the 40s. Our confidence in this Thanksgiving week cooldown is now pretty high. As for rain chances, I think they’ll remain elevated through Monday night or Tuesday, after which we should see clearing skies at least through Thanksgiving.

So all in all, after an exceedingly warm mid-November, it does appear as though the weather for Thanksgiving in Houston will feel quite a bit more festive.

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In brief: There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but we can be confident of unseasonable heat through Thursday, and then the likelihood of some showers and thunderstorms on Thursday evening into Friday as a weak front approaches Houston. After that? Well, we’ll see.

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Overall pattern

Despite a fair amount of cloud cover, Houston’s high temperature reached 84 degrees on Tuesday, falling just short of setting a record high for the day. With persistent high pressure holding on for a little while longer I expect today and Wednesday to be the warmest days of the week, and we almost certainly will break the city’s record high temperature for today, Nov. 18, which is 84 degrees. Wednesday (85 degrees) is also in play.

Later this week, by Friday, a weak front is going to sag into the area. As a result of this we’ll see healthy rain chances beginning on Thursday, and these may persist into the weekend. We also will probably see some slightly cooler and drier air, but our region will remain unseasonably warm into next week. Most of our model guidance is still pointing to a more significant cooldown by around Thanksgiving, or shortly after.

Tuesday

We are seeing a bit of patchy fog across the area, and this is not surprising because temperatures are in the upper 60s with dewpoints to match. So yeah, it’s pretty sticky. Highs are going up into the mid-80s for most of Houston, with some upper 80s possible west and north of the city. It’s not even gonna be a dry heat. Lows tonight will be similarly sultry, with another chance of patchy fog.

Wednesday

Expect another warm and humid day, albeit with more clouds. This may limit highs to the mid-80s for much of the region. Dewpoints in the 70s will certainly be sticky. As we start to see the atmosphere become a little more turbulent some slight rain chances, perhaps on the order of 10 to 20 percent, will enter the forecast. Lows on Wednesday night will, again, be quite warm.

Thursday

As a front advances into central Texas we’ll start to see increasing rain chances on Thursday, although they likely won’t pick up until the afternoon hours, and odds will be best Thursday night into Friday morning as the front moves in the Houston region. Highs on Thursday will likely be in the low- to mid-80s.

So what will the front bring? I’m afraid I can’t offer a whole lot of clarity at this point. I do think we’ll see a line of showers and thunderstorms, but I’m not super concerned about severe weather. Can we rule it out? Not yet, but again the overall dynamics are not super favorable for strong storms. In terms of rainfall I expect most of the area to pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches, but there is a risk for higher accumulations.

Friday

You would expect a cold front in November to bring some significantly colder air, wouldn’t you? Well, in this case you’d be wrong. Highs on Friday are still likely to be in the lower 80s. I think we’ll also see some lingering showers throughout the day, call it a 50 percent chance of rain. Eventually I think we probably will see some drier air filtering in to the region, but I’m not at all convinced how much we’ll see. So the forecast from this point on is pretty uncertain. But for now let’s call for lows on Friday night to be in the lower 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Both of these days probably will bring partly sunny skies, with highs in the upper 70s—or thereabouts. Saturday and Sunday will each have a modest chance of rain, perhaps 20 to 40 percent. Lows likely will be somewhere in the range of the upper 50s to lower 60s, but again this depends on the extent of the front. I could see a scenario in which lows only get to the upper 60s.

Next week

The first half of next week will probably see highs somewhere in the 70s and lows somewhere in the 50s or 60s, with decent daily rain chances (50 percent, maybe?). Much of our guidance is still pointing toward a more significant cooldown by around Thanksgiving, but whether that means lows in the 40s or 50s is not yet clear.

All in all this forecast has been pretty unhelpful, I realize. But the fact of the matter is that our best models have been waffling around some, and whether Friday’s front stalls over Houston, or offshore, is going to matter a lot to our weather for this weekend and beyond. I hope to provide you with more clarity in tomorrow’s forecast.

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