In brief: Houston is emerging from the cold now with highs again in the 50s today and then 60s tomorrow and Sunday. Rain chances return Saturday night and Sunday. Locally heavy rain is likely on Sunday in parts of the area that could lead to some isolated street flooding. A much milder week is on tap next week, along with another chance of rain and storms later in the week.

After 4 straight mornings with lows in the 20s, Houston officially failed to drop below 30 this morning as we continue to thaw out. Still, keep an eye out for patchy black ice on area roads this morning. This weekend will feel and look more spring-like, however as rain returns to the forecast on Sunday, including some locally heavy rain.

Today

Yesterday was a chilly but nice day. Today will essentially be a carbon copy. Expect sunshine and highs well into the 50s.

Saturday

Onshore flow returns tomorrow, which means temperatures will get a boost into the 60s after morning lows in the mid to upper-30s. Look for sunshine to fade behind increasing clouds, a sign of things to come on Sunday.

Sunday & Monday

Scattered showers should begin to break out across the region around midnight or so Saturday night into Sunday morning. Look for coverage and intensity of showers to pick up after sunrise with the focus of the heavier downpours drifting from northwest to southeast. We wouldn’t be shocked to see a few places get multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms on Sunday morning and afternoon.

With the amount of atmospheric moisture well above average (almost 200 percent of normal) on Sunday, there will almost certainly be enough heavy rain in spots to produce localized street flooding. If you have plans on Sunday, just keep that in mind. A cool front will nudge offshore Monday, likely ending the rain chances by mid to late morning.

Sunday morning lows will not drop below 50 degrees. Then, we’ll see a range of temperatures Sunday afternoon, with highs near 60 or so in Huntsville to near 70 in Lake Jackson. Mid to upper-60s should dominate in the city. Monday’s front has minimal “oomph” behind it, so look for temperatures to only be a few degrees cooler Monday.

Look for rain totals to average a half-inch to an inch on Sunday and Monday, but it’s likely that some more localized spots see 2 to 4 inches of rain. This seems especially possible from northern Harris into Montgomery, Liberty, and Polk Counties, but it can’t be entirely ruled out elsewhere.

Rest of next week

I am assuming next week is going to feature a lot of continued clouds, so soak up the sun while we have it around. Isolated showers are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. There is growing consensus in modeling that a somewhat stronger cold front is going to push through later next week. This seems likely to feature another round or two of rain and thunder. The details are TBD, but it’s possible we double down on some heavy rain risk later next week. Stay tuned. Temps look mild next week, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s.

In brief: Temperatures are generally a few degrees below freezing this morning across the metro area, and you’ll want to look out for a few icy patches on area roads. But Houston is well on the way to putting this Arctic freeze behind us. So what does the rest of winter look like here?

Cold update

Most of Houston is experiencing a light freeze this morning, but temperatures are generally about 10 degrees warmer than they were on Wednesday morning. As a result there likely are still a few slick spots on roadways around Houston, including a few freeway bridges and ramps. However, these are mostly navigable if you just take a little more time and care driving this morning. For locations where temperatures are below freezing, they will rise above freezing between 9 and 10 am CT today.

The ghosts of Winter past, present, and yet to come

Now that we’re putting a significant Arctic blast in the rear view mirror, I want to take stock of the rest of winter in Houston. We’re much closer to the end than the beginning, as it is January 23. So far we’ve seen one much warmer than normal month in December, and one much colder than normal month in January. However, the final week of January looks to be fairly mild, with near normal temperatures after Friday.

Looking ahead to February, I expect we will slot back into a somewhat warmer than normal pattern in which the overall flow is more westerly (i.e. more moderate Pacific air masses) rather than northerly (i.e. Canadian and Arctic air masses) in nature. As a result the likely outcome for southern US states is warmer, according to NOAA’s monthly outlook. Although this does not mean we’re necessarily done with freezes for this year, it also would not shock me.

Thursday

We’ll see more sunshine today, and this should push high temperatures up to about 50 degrees for most of the area. Winds will be light, out of the north at 5 to 10 mph. I’d expect one more light freeze in Houston tonight, with the possibility of highs in the upper 20s for outlying areas.

Friday

This will be another fine, sunny day with highs perhaps a couple of degrees warmer, say in the lower 50s. As winds turn to come from the southwest, overnight lows will likely stay above freezing on Friday night for pretty much the entire metro area. However it will still be chilly, with temperatures dropping into the 30s for most locations.

Saturday

The overall pattern starts to change in a big way as high pressure shifts to the east, and we see an increasing onshore flow. This will allow for the development of some clouds on Saturday, and we’ll say goodbye to sunshine for awhile. Highs will reach about 60 or 65 degrees. Some light to moderate rainfall may approach the area by Saturday evening or Saturday night.

Sunday

This looks like a wet day as a slow-moving, weak front moves into, and stalls over Houston. Although we cannot rule out some briefly heavy rain, for the most part this day should just deliver a good soaking, with much of Houston picking up between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. Rain chances will probably be best in the middle of the day. Highs will reach the mid-60s. Rain chances continue, at a lower rate, overnight. Lows drop into the 50s.

Next week

Monday may see a bit of a cessation in rain, but the rest of next week should bring healthy chances each day as we enter a pattern dominated by an atmosphere with more moisture. Highs for the most part look to be in the 60s next week, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

In brief: This morning is as cold as it’s going to get in Houston during the Arctic freeze, with temperatures bottoming out in many locations in the upper teens. From this point on we’re going to slowly warm up through the weekend. As temperatures climb today, roads will clear out nicely by noon, and we can resume normal activities in the Houston area.

Cold status

Temperatures have fallen into the upper teens to lower 20s for most of the Houston metro area this morning, with a hard freeze firmly in place. This has allowed water on roadways to freeze again, and created hazardous conditions in many locations around the region with “black ice.” Extreme caution should be taken if you are driving this morning before about noon. Roads may appear dry, but patchy ice will be difficult to discern. It would be much better to remain home until late morning, when air temperatures should warm sufficiently to melt the water.

Houston Intercontinental Airport and Galveston are currently experiencing their coldest temperatures since an Arctic Outbreak last January, and Hobby Airport since December 2022. It’s notably colder to our east, in Texas and parts of Louisiana. Beaumont is having its coldest morning since 1906.

Arctic outbreak visualized

When we talk about an “Arctic air mass,” it essentially means that the cold air near the North Pole is displaced further south. This week it has moved over pretty much the entire continental United States. Meteorologist Ben Noll displayed this nicely on Tuesday, with a map showing the air temperatures around the planet relative to normal levels from 1991 to 2020. As you can see, the Arctic is much warmer than normal, whereas the United States significantly colder.

Wednesday

After our very cold start this morning, temperatures will climb above freezing across the metro area by 10 to 11 am. This will begin the melting process on area roads, which will accelerate by noon as temperatures reach about 40 degrees. Highs today may get all the way into the mid-40s, with sunny skies and light winds. Any lingering moisture on roads may re-freeze again on Wednesday night, but my sense is that that sunshine today will dry most everywhere out. We’ll see. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to about 30 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions in outlying areas.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of sunny days, with highs of around 50 degrees and generally light winds. There’s a chance that Houston sees a very light freeze on Thursday night, but by Friday night the region should remain in the upper 30s.

Saturday and Sunday

With the high pressure currently dominating our weather long gone by the weekend, expect highs near 60 degrees with partly sunny skies. Some light rain chances return Saturday evening, and then we are likely to see fairly widespread showers on Sunday. Accumulations don’t look serious, but it’s kind of a shame that our first reasonably warm day (mid- to upper-60s) in a while will be rainy outside.

Next week

Speaking of rain, there should be a fair amount of it next week as a front stalls over the area. In addition to daily chances, much of the period looks to be cloudy, with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. There is no sign, at least yet, of an additional significant freeze after this week.

In brief: This evening’s update celebrates Houston’s first snow day in a long time, when nearly everyone did the right thing and stayed home. With a very cold night on tap we need to hang tight for a little while longer before things warm up on Wednesday.

Houston has a snow day

Y’all did amazing today. The city of Houston, alone, has more than 16,000 miles of roadway. One could drive nearly two-thirds of the way around the world in that distance. Most of those roads were iced over today with snow, sleet, slush or some other wintry mess. And according to the Houston Police Department, there were just 22 accidents today. That’s a testament to all of the people who stayed home, all of the employers who made the painful decision to close their businesses, and every other organization that stood down today. It was a special day, a true snow day, and we’re unlikely to soon forget it.

But we’re not yet done. We need everyone to stay home again this evening, tonight, and early Wednesday morning before we thaw out for real. More on the timing of this below.

How cold tonight?

I would not gamble any money on making a temperature prediction tonight. I believe most of the region will fall into a range of about 18 to 28 degrees, and it will vary widely due to a number of factors, including snow cover. Regardless, it will be the coldest night of the Arctic outbreak we have experienced so far. For reference, temperatures generally fell into the upper 20s on Monday night in Houston. So if you’re worried about pipes, this is the night for maximum preparation.

Timing of Wednesday warm-up

I’ve been watching Houston Transtar’s cameras today, and just before sunset many of the area’s freeways still looked wet. That water is going to freeze tonight. A lot of Houston’s feeder roads and side streets, which got slushy or melted on Tuesday afternoon, are going to freeze tonight. There is a phenomenon known as black ice, which occurs after snow melts on roadways and then re-freezes. This is a thin sheet of ice that, because it is transparent, may not be readily visible to drivers.

All of that to say, some of Houston’s roads may have dried up today. But many of them did not, and they will be slick tonight and on Wednesday morning. For your safety, it would really be best to preclude any travel tomorrow before late-morning. Some time between 10 am and noon air temperatures will rise above freezing, and in concert with sunny skies this should act to fairly quickly melt remaining ice on Houston’s roads.

Mobility around Houston should rapidly improve during the afternoon hours on Wednesday, with high temperatures climbing into the 40s.

Our next update will come at the usual time, on Wednesday morning. Stay warm, y’all. We’re almost through this!