In brief: Storms firing to the north and west of Houston will sag into the city this evening and down to the coast by around midnight. This system should also weaken with the loss of daytime heating, so the severe threat is diminishing. But it’s not completely gone yet.

If you live along, or south of Interstate 10 you may be wondering what the big deal is with storm forecasts today. So far the majority of the activity has taken place in the northern half of the Houston metro area. Some locations just north of Conroe have picked up in excess of 6 inches of rain, and areas near Kingwood have recorded upward of 4 inches. There also has been a fair amount of hail, some of it quarter-sized, within the stronger thunderstorms.

As of 6:45 pm CT two things are changing. The first is good news. The threat for severe weather, particularly hail and damaging winds is fading. That does not mean these storms cannot produce severe weather this evening, it just means that their ability to do so is declining. The second change is that, ahead of a cool front, the threat of showers and thunderstorms is now moving into central Houston and should reach the coast between 10 pm and midnight. Again, we expect the line of storms to weaken as it moves toward the coast.

So for areas that have been inundated with storms today, the finish line is sight. Things should clear out in northern areas over the next couple of hours. For areas that have seen nothing so far today, but may have heard the distant sound of thunder, showers and perhaps some stronger thunderstorms are inbound this evening. Closer to the coast I think rain totals will be hit or miss, but most of the region should see some rainfall between now and Saturday morning.

Saturday and Sunday both look like pleasant late spring days, with drier air and highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees.

In brief: Severe thunderstorms are developing in Houston as of noon on Friday, and will pose a threat for the next 12 hours across the region. We’ve got details about all of the threats in this update, with a particular concern for the evening commute.

As anticipated, with daytime heating, we are seeing severe thunderstorms developing in the Houston region. As of 12:30 pm CT there are large clusters of storms near Kingwood and just west of Katy. From this point forward we expect additional development throughout the afternoon and evening hours as the capping inversion over the region breaks.

From now until about 5 pm the majority of activity should be clustered along and north of Interstate 10, but that certainly does not preclude thunderstorms developing in the southern half of the region. Unfortunately we expect that the majority of the region is likely to see activity during the evening commute as the storms spread, making for a messy time on freeways. If you can leave earlier today, that’s probably for the best.

In terms of threats we have three major concerns right now.

RAIN: These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, and under high rainfall rates we are likely to see street flooding. For this reason we have implemented a Stage 1 flood alert for the region through tonight. Essentially, you need to be weather aware on roads, take extra time, and do not drive into high water. Rainfall amounts will vary widely, with most of the area likely picking up 0.5 to 2 inches. I am concerned about a few bullseyes of 4 inches or more, which are possible.

WIND: There is a healthy chance of damaging winds with these storms, so anything you can batten down would be helpful. The threat of damaging winds is the highest we have seen so far this spring, so again this is another reason to stay off roads amid strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening if possible.

HAIL: In some thunderstorms near Kingwood weather spotters have already observed quarter-sized hail this afternoon. So this is a distinct threat as well as these storms pass through.

Tornadoes are also possible, but the threat is on the lower end of the scale.

Over the next several hours the bulk of the storms will shift southward, ahead of a front rumbling into the area. Areas south of Interstate 10, accordingly, will likely face the greatest threat of severe weather from late this afternoon to late this evening. By midnight, or shortly afterward, the threat of storms should move offshore. After that, the weekend looks lovely.

We will update later today as warranted.

In brief: Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening in the Houston area, especially north of I-10. Hail and strong wind gusts are the main concerns. Heavy rain is also likely in spots, so a stage 1 flood alert has been posted. After today, we get some quiet, if not absolutely beautiful weather this weekend.

Today/tonight

So, let’s get this out of the way first: This morning looks fine. No issues.

Starting this afternoon, probably not long after lunchtime, numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to begin developing north of I-10. The environment over Houston looks conducive for virtually any storm to become strong to severe today. As such, we are now in an enhanced risk (3/5) of severe weather this afternoon and evening.

The two main threats today will be pockets of strong wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph and the potential for hail. An isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out, but the bigger risks are damaging wind and hail today. The evolution of storms today will probably be individual cells eventually congealing into a line that lingers for a bit over much of the Houston area, again focused near or north of I-10. The severe storm threat should begin to wane after sunset, but additional thunderstorms are likely, especially south of I-10 overnight. So, almost everyone should get a chance to participate today with the nastier storms north this afternoon and evening and less intense storms south this evening and overnight.

In addition to the hail and wind, these storms could produce torrential rainfall, with totals of up to 3 or 4 inches possible in isolated pockets. Street flooding could easily crop up with storms like this. So, with that in mind, we are issuing a stage 1 flood alert for this afternoon and evening across the area, mainly north of I-10.

There are always fail modes on days like this, and it could be that we end up with heavy rain and generic thunderstorms more so than severe weather. But the environment today is definitely primed for some strong to severe storms, so particularly between about 1 PM and 8 PM, you’ll want to remain tuned into what’s happening.

Eric will have the latest for you around midday with a fresh update. We will follow with further updates as needed thereafter.

Saturday and Sunday

After some lingering showers well south of Houston or near the coast in the morning, Saturday itself looks like a fine day. Actually, it may end up being an absolutely spectacular day, but I want to keep expectations a little in check. But expect a return of some sunshine, noticeably lower humidity, and highs into the low 80s. Morning lows should be in the lower 60s. Look for much the same on Sunday without the morning shower chance.

You never know when you’re going to get your last really, really nice day before summer sinks in, so take advantage of tomorrow and Sunday if you’re able!

Next week

After another decent day Monday (albeit a bit warmer), we will re-emerge into an unsettled weather pattern for much of next week. Day by day details are tough to pin down right now, but look for at least a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Some of the storms could be strong, and some of the rain could be heavy.

More data!

I generally abide by a separation of church and state when it comes to my day job and my work with Space City Weather. However, I am going to make a minor exception in this case. For those that do not know, I was hired in November to be CenterPoint Energy’s new manager of meteorology. Among the many things I was tasked with out of the gate was siting and launching a network of 100 weather sensors across the Houston area, as part of the company’s commitments in the Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative. In case you had not seen earlier this week, that process is now underway, and you can see the data from over 60 new weather sensors across the area here!

You may ask, “Well aren’t there already a lot of weather sensors reporting here?” The answer is yes. There are. But even when you plot virtually every network of weather stations, there are still some data gaps, there are periodically reliability issues, and most of you know how the weather goes in Houston where it rains at your neighbor’s house but not yours.

I’m hoping we can fill some of those gaps, assist with improving weather forecasting in the Houston area, and add additional data to be used by the NWS, flood control agencies, etc. to assist in understanding or researching weather in the Houston area. More data is good for everyone. So this project has excited me, I’m glad we can share this data with the weather community, and I look forward to seeing it grow further.

In brief: Today’s post reviews an unseasonably warm April and then looks ahead to some dynamic weather on Friday. Much of the region should see storms between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning as a slow-moving cool front moves into the region. After this, the weekend looks quite nice for early May.

May arrives

If April seemed rather warm, you’re not wrong. The month ended last night, and for the greater Houston region it was a seasonably sizzling one. The city’s average temperature was 74.6 degrees, which is nearly 5 degrees above normal. This ranks as the fourth warmest April of all time in the city’s history. One reason is that the city saw no real fronts during the second half of the month. But that does not mean summer has quite yet arrived in Houston. A modest front will reach the city this weekend, and another one is possible about 10 days from now. These won’t be strong fronts, as such things are rather rare for May. But any dry air this late into the spring season is welcome.

Thursday

If you’re wondering about those storms on Wednesday night, they essentially remained north of Highway 105, with only a smattering of rain making it down into the Houston metro area. Plenty of moisture remains in the atmosphere so we may see a few showers and thunderstorms today in Houston, but I expect most of us to stay dry. As skies clear out this afternoon, it should be rather warm day, with a few inland locations probably reaching 90 degrees this afternoon. Winds will be from the south at 10 mph, gusting perhaps to 20 mph. Lows tonight only fall into the low 70s for most locations.

Friday and Friday night

In terms of temperatures and humidity, I expect Friday to be similar to Thursday, however I do expect to see less sunshine. The big thing to watch is the possibility (likelihood, really) of showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon, evening, and overnight. As a front approaches Houston we are likely to see a mass of showers and thunderstorms develop north of Interstate 10 by Friday afternoon or early evening, and we cannot rule out some hail or damaging winds with these. Although I believe the formation of tornadoes is unlikely, I cannot say none will occur.

Later on Friday evening, or perhaps around midnight, these storms should march southward toward the coast before the whole thing moves offshore some time on Saturday morning. Because we are still nearly 48 hours from all of this, we are just coming into the range of high resolution modeling. However I want people to be aware that the region could see 0.5 to 2 inches of rain on Friday evening and night, with the possibility of thunderstorms. If you have plans for Friday night, this is definitely something to take into account.

Saturday

Rain chances will likely end on Saturday morning, and we should see some clearing skies during the afternoon hours. High temperatures will likely reach about 80 degrees for most locations, with some modestly drier air. Lows on Saturday night will depend on how far you live from the coast, with areas south of I-10 maybe reaching 65 or the lower 60s, whereas some areas further inland have a chance to reach the upper 50s. It should, in any case, feel pretty nice.

Sunday

Dare I say this may be the nicest day the region sees until some time in October? Expect mostly sunny skies with a high temperature in the vicinity of 80 degrees. With dewpoints in the 50s, the air will feel reasonably dry. Although we cannot entirely rule out a few isolated showers at this point, I don’t expect much rain. Lows on Sunday night will, again, drop into the lower 60s for most.

Next week

Already on Sunday we’ll start to see the return of a southerly flow, and this will eventually nudge temperatures and humidity back up next week. The bigger story will be a lumbering low pressure system that is likely to be a rainmaker for the region. It’s hard to predict totals, but next Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday look to be fairly soggy ahead of possibly another weak front.