In brief: Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms will dot the Houston area today and Saturday, although we really, really need some rain. A generally pleasant stretch of weather will follow, with periodic cool fronts reinforcing warm but mostly comfortable autumn weather. Our first real big front of the season may be on the horizon before Halloween.

The first 16 days of October have ended with Houston recording a top 10 warmest front half of the month on record. It’s not just us either. Chicago’s had a top 10 warmest October so far. Atlanta is in the top 20. Miami is in the top 25, and St. Louis ranks third warmest right now. While the West has been cooler and the East Coast near average, the center of the country has remained toasty so far this month. That may be about to change a bit. We may be in line for more fairly nice mornings, warm to perhaps hot daytimes but I think at levels below what we’ve seen so far this autumn. In other words, we’re getting there.

Speaking of temperatures…

If you use the Space City Weather app (and you should), and if you set your city to Houston, those observations come from Bush Airport. If you’ve followed along this summer, you know that the official Houston temperature sensor at IAH has been a source of confusion, amusement, annoyance, conspiracy theories, outrage, and curiosity. To that end, out of an abundance of caution, the temperature sensor at IAH was replaced this week. The previous sensor was reading within what was expected, but given the wide ranging displeasure that has been shared, including by some credible folks on the matter, it’s been replaced. As I noted earlier this summer, we can quibble with the choice of IAH to represent Houston’s official temperature, but that doesn’t mean the sensor itself is wrong. It’s a temperature at IAH, not in your backyard. How that impacts how we view records is perhaps a bit more complicated and contentious but after looking at summer’s data, it does not seem to have made IAH a distinct outlier in the region by any means.

Anyway, for those of you scoring at home, there’s a new temperature sensor in town. Have at the data.

Friday through Sunday

Scattered showers are going to pop up today across the region. We need the rain.

Drought now covers nearly 40 percent of the Houston area, with severe drought now showing up in parts of Colorado and Wharton Counties. If you get a passing shower today or tomorrow, consider yourself fortunate. Expect showers today to behave with the heating of the day, increasing in coverage from morning through afternoon, then diminishing after dark. Showers should maneuver farther inland today so hopefully other parts of the area away from the coast could pick up a scattered quarter to half-inch of rain.

On Saturday, showers will start in the morning again, initially mostly near the coast and west of I-45 out across Katy into Fort Bend County. By the time we get to midday, the focus of the activity should migrate eastward toward I-45 and perhaps east of downtown Houston. Include an umbrella in your plans both Friday and Saturday anywhere in the area, but it is unlikely you’ll need one all day or even most of the day. We probably won’t see severe weather on Saturday, but to our north, there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) in place up toward Lufkin and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) closer to Lake Livingston.

The front itself passes on Sunday morning around sunrise. Right now, we aren’t expecting much fanfare with the front; it looks like a dry passage. We’ll see temperatures and humidity drop off a bit as it does so. The rest of the day looks breezy with sunshine and highs in the upper 80s. It will feel much more comfortable. Some wildfire risk is in place in the area Sunday afternoon, but it does not appear any worse than previous wildfire risk days we’ve had so far this autumn. Just use caution with anything flammable outdoors.

Early next week

Monday looks sunny and pleasant with highs in the upper-80s and morning lows in the 50s and 60s. Another front should reinforce this pleasant but not quite “cool” air mass on Tuesday night. It may bring a few showers out ahead of it as humidity attempts to return, but the odds look minimal right now. We’ll hold with mid to upper 80s for highs and generally 60s for lows.

Later next week

I’m with Eric that we could very well see another weak cold front later in the week. It does not appear to be THE fall front just yet, however. There is increasing signal in the modeling that that front will wait until right before Halloween. We’ll either be celebrating the arrival of fall or celebrating its imminent arrival at our Fall Day celebration next weekend. Stay tuned.

In brief: Today’s post takes a look at rising humidity for the next couple of days, and returning rain chances on Friday and Saturday. We also look at the likelihood of a weak front on Sunday, and the muddled possibilities for more next week.

A few notes on Fall Day

We have had a couple of questions roll in about Fall Day, our celebration of the end of summer planned for Saturday, October 25th, at Midtown Park. (You can find more information here). Several people have asked about parking, which has been a bit of a challenge during our last two events. This year I’m happy to report there is plenty of parking nearby, including an underground garage that is going to be free on the Saturday morning of our event. Secondly, we are indeed going to have some fun giveaways (including exclusive anniversary tote bags, which probably will go fast), and we will share more information on all of that soon. We are putting a lot of effort into this with our partner, Reliant, so we hope to see you there!

Thursday

Our drier air is holding on for inland areas this morning, with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s inland to the 70s along the coast. From this point our dewpoints are going to steadily climb over the next couple of days, so less-than-dry air is going to be the norm through Saturday. This does mean we are going to see more clouds today, and this should help to limit high temperatures to the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be light, from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 70 degrees for most locations, depending on your proximity to the coast and central Houston.

Friday and Saturday

The onshore flow and rising atmospheric moisture levels will bring a decent chance of rain into the forecast on Friday and Saturday. Let’s be clear: both days are likely to have partly to mostly sunny skies. But there will be the possibility of a passing shower, with overall chances of 40 to 50 percent daily. Accumulations for the most part will be on the order of a tenth of an inch, but I could see a few areas that see stronger showers that put down half an inch. This is all probably going to be very hit or miss. Temperatures will generally range from the mid-80s to about 90 degrees further inland, with plenty of humidity. Nights will be warm, in the lower 70s.

Sunday

This is the day when a cool front will approach and (probably!) move through Houston and down to the coast. The European (and other) models remain fairly bullish on a nose of drier air dropping down into Houston on Sunday, but there is some uncertainty. Basically, I think if you live along and north of Interstate 10, you’re going to see a good shot of less humid air for a day or so, and but the closer one lives to the coast, the lower the chances and the less dry air. In short this is not going to be a strong front that barrels off the coast and leaves us all saying, “Ahhh.” With that said, most of Houston will probably see highs in the upper 80s on Sunday with lower humidity and sunny skies. Temperatures on Sunday night will vary widely, with some inland areas probably dropping into the 50s, but the coast remaining stubbornly in the 70s.

Next week

Who knows. I think the front on Sunday will wash out pretty quickly. But then we might see another one on Tuesday or Tuesday night. And then maybe a stronger something or other by Thursday or so. The models are flopping around a lot. There also appear to be some rain chances sprinkled in. The upper-level pattern next week does support the sending of a front all the way through Houston later next week, so let’s see what happens. I’ll guarantee you this: If we get a strong cold front, we will comp everyone’s admission to Fall Day. (That’s a joke, just to be clear. Fall Day, like this website, is free and open to everyone).

In brief: Today’s post provides some more information on the region’s burgeoning drought, and why scattered showers to end this week are unlikely to bring any relief. We also discuss the return of September-like humidity for a couple of days before a front on Sunday.

We could use some rain

As Matt noted on Friday, drought conditions are starting to spread into the region after a dry late summer and early fall period. Houston’s official weather station at Bush Intercontinental Airport has not recorded more than a trace of rain since September 24, and in both August and September the region received substantially lower rainfall totals than normal.

With shorter days and a lower Sun angle we don’t need as much rain to really help out our soils than we would in the middle of summer. A little goes a long way. However, although a decent shot of rain is in the forecast to end this week, the meager amount we are likely to get is not really going to help much. Most areas are likely to get one-tenth of an inch, or less. And that is just not going to cut it. Any significant rain accumulations likely remain eight to 10 days away.

Wednesday

We’re going to enjoy some modestly lower humidity levels for another day or so before the return of the onshore flow. Accordingly, high temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to 90 degrees today, with sunny skies. Winds will be light, from the northeast. Lows tonight will again drop into the 60s in Houston on Wednesday night, with cooler conditions in suburban and outlying areas.

Thursday

This will be another sunny day, with highs generally in the upper 80s. However, with dewpoints a good 10 degrees higher than Wednesday, our air will feel more humid. Over the course of the day winds should shift to come more from the southeast. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the lower 70s (with more moisture in the air it will be slower to cool down).

Friday and Saturday

These will be warmer and more humid days, feeling almost like summer outside I’m afraid. With highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees and plenty of humidity it will be a throwback to September. Each day should bring a decent (40 percent, maybe?) chance of showers. But as noted I expect these to be light, short-lived, and bringing hundredths to tenths of an inch of rain (at most). Skies, otherwise, should be mostly sunny. Nights will be warm, in the lower 70s.

Sunday

A decent shot of drier air will push into the region on Sunday as a front moves in. This will be more of a ‘humidity’ front than a true cool front, but it will still feel somewhat refreshing after Friday and Saturday. look for highs around 90 degrees on Sunday, with cooler conditions on Sunday night into Monday morning. Lows will depend on where you live, but I could see outlying areas drop into the 50s while much of Houston remains in the 60s.

Next week

Sunday’s front will be fairly short lived, with humidity and temperatures likely to rebound early next week. After that we are going to be looking for the possibility of a stronger, more fall-like front. There is still no clear or certain signal yet, but I’m hopeful we might see this at some point during the second half of next week. Notably, the GFS model out just this morning has finally leaned into such a solution, but since we are still a week or more out, I just cannot say anything with high confidence.

In brief: Today’s post discusses the difference between ‘humidity’ fronts we’ve had so far this fall, and a stronger front that ushers in colder air. We think Houston may get its first stronger front of the season later next week, but cannot yet guarantee this.

Fall, finally (probably)

We have had several fronts this fall, beginning back in late August if you recall. For the most part these have been humidity fronts in the sense that they have knocked out some of the moisture from the atmosphere. But they have not brought large amounts of significantly colder air into the region. (There is no technical definition for this, but let’s go with nights in the 50s in Houston).

We have another ‘humidity’ front in the cards for this weekend. However after that, there is an increasingly strong signal in the global models for a stronger front in the range of 8 to 10 days from now. (Perhaps it is no coincidence that we scheduled Fall Day for October 25, months in advance?) Of course there is no guarantee this will happen as forecasts that far out are far from certain. But the time of year is right, and a pattern change appears likely. So Fall, finally? Probably.

Tuesday and Wednesday

In the meantime Houston will continue to see warmer than normal weather. Highs today will be in the upper 80s (some inland areas probably will hit 90). The upside of this pattern for the next two days will be a drier northeast flow, so humidity levels will be lower. Expect sunny skies and generally light winds. Lows will fall into the upper 60s for central Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Friday and Saturday

Heading into the weekend the onshore flow will become more pronounced, and this should introduce a few more clouds and somewhat higher humidity. This may help to limit high temperatures to the mid- to upper-80s. We also will have some low-end (20 percent?) daily chances for light rain. Any showers should be fleeting. Lows will only drop into the 70s for most locations with the more humid air.

Sunday and Monday

On Sunday we should see a front drag into the area. At this point it appears it won’t bring too much cooler air with it, but there is a decent chance of some showers on Saturday night and Sunday. Again, accumulations don’t look overly impressive, perhaps a tenth of an inch of rain, or two for most locations. Not everyone will see rain. Highs on Sunday should be in the upper 80s, with lows dropping into the 60s on Sunday night with drier air. Monday should see highs in the mid-80s or thereabouts, with sunny skies.

The rest of next week

After that point we’ll be in the waiting room for a stronger front. This could arrive as early as Wednesday, or maybe a day or two later. But most our guidance suggests we could see cooler weather (days in the 70s, nights in the 50s, maybe?) toward the end of next week. With some luck we will also get a decent shot of rain with the stronger front. But again, no guarantees at this range I’m afraid.