In brief: We’re posting on Sunday because of the significant (and mostly welcome) overnight rains, which has ushered in a much colder air mass. This marks a big change from the fall weather which has come before. In short, winter has come to Houston a day early.

End of fall pattern change

Pretty much everyone reading this probably realizes that Houston has had a warm and dry fall. Our daily maximum temperatures have regularly flirted with record highs, and due to a paucity of rain the region has slipped into a moderate-to-severe drought after remaining drought free during the summer months.

For the months of September, October, and November our high temperatures have run, on average, 4 to 6 degrees above normal in the Houston region, and indeed across much of Texas. Here’s what that looks like graphically:

The story is much the same for precipitation this fall. Most of the eastern part of Texas has received just 25 to 50 percent of normal levels of rainfall. Where I live the grass has turned crispy and brown, and before Saturday night I had not seen any precipitation in nearly five weeks. This has been the driest fall I can recall, having lived here for nearly three decades.

All of this makes Saturday night’s front so significant. Without too much in the way of severe weather it brought a solid 2 to 4 inches of rainfall to most of the metro area (Katy and western areas, excepted). This is the first time in many weeks that a storm system has over-performed model expectations for precipitation. All of this points to a pattern change, and indeed that is what the near-term forecast holds.

The first half of this week is going to be really cold by early December standards, and we are going to see ongoing rain chances for the remainder of the week.

Sunday

As of shortly after sunrise, temperatures for much of Houston are in the mid-50s, and they’re likely to only fall from here. Some additional very light showers are possible today, but for the most part I expect skies to just be gray. Winds will be gusty, from the north up to 25 mph. So very chilly out. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s for most of the metro area.

Monday

Rains are back on the menu for Monday. Around day break we should see a system move in from the southwest. Rain chances and accumulations will likely be highest for coastal counties, to the south and east of Highway 59/Interstate 69. I think 1-2 inches will be the upper limit for coastal areas, with inland locations seeing significantly less. In terms of temperatures, it’s going to be cold. I expect highs to peak in the low to mid-50s. Expect another chilly night in the 40s in Houston as rains end.

Tuesday

This will be a sunny and cold day, with highs in the upper 50s. With partly clear skies we should see ideal cooling on Tuesday night, with temperatures in the 30s north of Houston. I think the greater Houston region escapes a freeze.

The rest of the week

Highs will warm into the 60s on Wednesday with some clouds. Another storm system arrives later in the week, likely on Thursday, bringing elevated rain chances to end the work week. Chillier temperatures could return by Friday or Saturday morning, with lows in the 40s.

Fundraiser

Our annual fundraiser ends Monday night. We’ll not mention it again for another year after that! But until then there is still time to support our efforts by purchasing merchandise or making a donation. A very warm thank you to everyone who has contributed so far.

In brief: Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to Houston on Saturday with a low-end (marginal, 1/5) severe weather risk. Any severe weather will be isolated. Much colder weather will follow Sunday with highs in the 50s. Periods of rain and temperatures in the 40s (!) on Monday. Nicer weather after Monday.

I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving, and a special thank you to those who were working during the holiday. We can speak graciously of our colleagues at the National Weather Service office or those on TV. But we know many others were needed at work too. So, thank you.

Fundraiser

Much like your fridge with leftovers, I imagine your inbox is stuffed with amazing deals from #brands today. Just don’t forget local and small businesses! And if you want some Houston-centric merchandise for yourself or family this holiday season, we are in the final days of our annual fundraiser now. The finish line hits Monday. Then we don’t get to bug you again until next November. If you feel compelled, we greatly appreciate your support. Thank you!

Today

Quiet weather is with us for one more day. Look for clouds to perhaps increase through the afternoon or evening hours as we begin to transition back to a warmer air mass ahead of tomorrow’s next front and storm system.

Saturday

Alright, the headline for Saturday is that the entire area is under a marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms.

Back on Monday, we were in a slight risk (2/5), so the setup this time around is a tinge less impressive. Just want to benchmark this. That said, here’s how it should play out.

Saturday morning: If you have plans in the morning hours tomorrow, a few showers, drizzle, or sprinkles are possible but nothing worse than that. The AM looks fine.

Saturday afternoon: Showers will become more scattered, especially north and west of Downtown Houston, with an isolated strong to severe storm possible after 2-3 PM or so. All modes of severe weather (strong winds, hail, isolated tornadoes) are in play Saturday but none looks especially likely. In most cases, storms will be benign with just thunder, lightning, and heavy downpours. But one or two could push severe levels.

Saturday evening: Isolated strong to severe storms will continue to be possible north and west of Houston but a squall line of widespread moderate thunderstorms should develop and track south and east after 8 to 10 PM or so, reaching the coast by about 2 to 3 AM. Within this line of storms could be some gusty winds to 40 mph or so. I think this is especially true around Galveston Bay or on the Island. But risk of tornadoes or hail should back off.

After 3 AM, the line of storms should push offshore and conditions will improve. Gusty north winds will follow, with gusts at times of 30 to 35 mph or even a little stronger on the coast.

Sunday

We’ll close the weekend on a bit of a chilly, raw note. Look for clouds to dominate, though I’ll hold out hope for at least a little sunshine in a few spots. Maybe. Temperatures will be steady in the low-50s. If we see some sun, we could pop into the mid-50s.

Monday

Our next storm system glides in Sunday night, delivering a wintry-type day Monday. Expect chilly temperatures, mostly in the 40s Monday. Some places may be lucky to get above 45 degrees. Additionally, rain. Look for periods of rain, showers, and probably even a couple rumbles of thunder around the area.

Rain totals are a little less confident of a forecast. These types of setups tend to favor the coastal areas, where perhaps 1 inch or more of rain is possible. However, some model guidance does include higher totals inland as well. For now, I would expect a quarter to half-inch on average with pockets of the area likely seeing 1 inch or more.

After Monday

Quieter weather follows Monday, with our next chance of rain perhaps Thursday or Friday. Tuesday and Wednesday morning will see lows in the 30s and low-40s, so it’ll be chilly. Highs will be in the 50s on Wednesday and back into the 60s on Thursday and Friday.

In brief: In today’s post we look ahead to resplendent weather for the holiday, to be followed by brief warm-up this weekend before widespread showers and couple of shots of colder air. Parts of Houston may hit the 30s later next week.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Good morning, everyone. Just a relatively short post this morning due to the holiday—the Berger household has been up since 5:30 am working on smoking turkeys—but I wanted to share the latest on a fairly dynamic forecast. Fortunately we’re not looking at any serious storms, but there is a healthy chance of rain this weekend, and then conditions turn quite a bit colder next weekend. So with this post we are going to hit the high notes.

Thanksgiving Day

As we’ve been saying for awhile now, weather today will be ideal for the holiday. This morning’s low temperature of 48 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport was bang-on for the normal temperature for this time of year and today’s highs in the mid- to upper-60s will be typical for this time in November (normal high, 69 degrees). When you add in sunny skies, low humidity, and light winds, we have just exceptionally fine weather for a holiday. Lows tonight will probably be a couple of degrees cooler than Wednesday night. Think low-40s north of Houston, and upper 40s in Houston and further south.

Friday

This will be a transition day, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s. Winds will shift to come from the east-southeast, gusting up to 20 mph, or perhaps a bit higher. Lows Friday night will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see rising temperatures, into the mid-70s, along with much more humid air. I think Saturday morning will be mostly rain-free, with only some light showers as an exception. However, later in the day rain chances increase with the advance of a cold front. The best chances will occur later on Saturday evening and overnight when the front pushes through. I’m hesitant to predict accumulations, but at this time I expect most of the area to pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain. There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall, but given the overall dryness of our soils I’m not too concerned about flooding.

Sunday

This will be a chilly day, with leaden skies. Highs probably will not rise out of the upper 50s. Some rain chances will linger, but for the most part I just expect gray skies. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop into the 40s.

Next week

Monday should bring another shot of rainfall as what looks to be a reinforcing front moves in. As a result the first day of December looks to be a dreary affair, with highs perhaps topping out in the low 50s. We’ll see our lowest temperatures next week, possibly in the 30s for parts of Houston, on Tuesday, Wednesday, and/or Thursday mornings. At this point most of our available evidence points toward temperatures remaining above freezing in the metro area, but we’re going to keep an eye on things.

Have a great holiday, everyone!

Fundraiser

We have come to the final days of our annual fundraiser, but the curtain has not dropped yet. There is still time to support our efforts for the coming year, and you can do so by purchasing merchandise or making a donation here. Thank you so very, very much.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the seasonal conditions for Thanksgiving, which will be followed by widespread showers this weekend. After this we will be sharply colder next week, with a slight chance of a freeze. Also, a brilliant fireball soared through the skies over Houston last night.

Fireball over Southeast Texas

Last night around 10 pm I received a couple of messages about a bright object transiting the sky above Houston. This almost certainly was a fireball, a name for a large meteor (typically a few feet across, or larger) that has an apparent magnitude of -4 or brighter. According to unconfirmed sightings at Fireball reports, this object was brighter, closer to magnitude -10, or nearly as bright as the Moon. Via the local Houston subreddit I found this video of the object, captured at 9:34 pm CT on Tuesday night from north Houston. It is quite spectacular, although I believe you have to be logged into Nextdoor to view it. Even for dedicated meteor observers, such a bright fireball would be a fairly rare sighting. Congratulations to everyone who got to witness it in real time!

Early week tornadoes

A high-end EF-1 and a low-end EF-2 tornado on Monday were confirmed from damage surveys conducted by the National Weather Service northwest of Houston. The first occurred in Riata Ranch. The second was in Klein. Matt compiled a full report on what is known about these tornadoes, which were not particularly well forecast in advance.

Wednesday

Away from the coast temperatures have generally fallen into the 50s this morning. We’re starting to see some gusty winds from the north, and that’s evidence of a reinforcing front that will bring some significantly drier air into the region. As a result we are going to see gusty conditions this afternoon, up to 20 or 25 mph. With the influx of colder air, highs today are likely to max out in the upper 60s, despite sunny skies. Low temperatures tonight will bottom out in the upper 40s in Houston with cooler conditions for outlying areas. Winds will slacken some.

Thanksgiving Day

The holiday will dawn cold and clear, with light northeasterly winds. High temperatures will, for the most part, be in the mid-60s across the region with clear skies. Really we have zero weather concerns so please just enjoy the holiday with friends and family. Lows on Thanksgiving night will again drop into the upper 40s for many locations, although winds will shift to come from the east overnight, a harbinger of a returning onshore flow.

Friday

After a chilly start, highs on Friday will push into the upper 60s. We are going to see building clouds as atmospheric moisture levels increase. Winds from the southeast will pick up, gusting to perhaps 20 or 25 mph. This increase in moisture will lead to some slight rain chances by Friday night, but for the most part I think they’ll hold off until the weekend.

Saturday and Sunday

We are going to warm up on Saturday, with highs in the 70s and a return of humidity. This will set the stage for widespread showers (although probably not any severe weather) during the day and evening. At some point on Saturday night or early Sunday, a front is going to push into the area. This will bring colder air, but not end rain chances. Sunday should see highs in the vicinity of 60 degrees during the daytime, with perhaps a 50 percent chance of rain. Skies remain mostly cloudy. Most of us should probably pick up, roughly, 1 inch of rain through the weekend. Totals will vary widely, however.

Next week

The first half of next week looks cold, with highs in the 50s, and an ongoing chance of rain. Tuesday and Wednesday morning look to be the coldest of the forecast period, and we cannot rule out a light freeze for inland parts of the Houston area. I would say the chances are low, but non-zero. We’re going to keep an eye on it. When we flirt with a freeze, and there is lingering precipitation, the next question is whether there could be any frozen precipitation. The short answer is probably not. The longer answer is probably not because the colder air arriving by Tuesday should do so as precipitation is ending, but I would not rule anything out just yet. Temperatures appear to moderate some by the second half of next week, with highs likely in the 60s.

Fundraiser

We are nearing the end of our annual fundraiser for 2025, but it has not ended yet! You can still donate to Space City Weather, or purchase merchandise, by clicking here. We greatly appreciate your support for all we do here.