In brief: Houston will see a pattern this week of typical August temperatures, and daily shower chances. We may also see a few isolated downpours and strong winds each day. By this weekend high pressure should begin to build over the area, pushing temperatures up and rain chances downward.

Pattern overview

High pressure will develop over the Florida region during the next couple of days, and this area will gradually expand westward this week across the Gulf. What this means for Houston is that, through the coming work week, we will see enough “weakness” in the pressure pattern to allow for healthy daily shower chances with a few strong, embedded thunderstorms. This is the kind of weather some areas, such as Sugar Land, experienced on Saturday withy isolated strong storms.

This somewhat unsettled pattern should keep high temperatures this week in the mid-90s, but we could be headed toward hotter temperatures this coming weekend, when the ridge of high pressure expands far enough west to begin directly influencing our weather.

The aforementioned high pressure system’s placement over the Gulf will also play a role in the evolution of a tropical system now known as Invest 97L, but which is likely to become a tropical storm in a couple of days, and later a hurricane. This system is not much of a threat to reach the Gulf, but the placement of the high will help determine whether Invest 97L approaches the eastern United States or remains well offshore.

Monday

A quick look at the radar this morning shows plenty of showers offshore and to the east of the city, and these should gradually spread into the Houston metro area later this morning. As will be the case much of this week, the showers will be hit or miss, with a few embedded thunderstorms. By this afternoon we should see mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s for areas along and south of Interstate 10, and mid- to upper-90s for inland areas. Winds will be fairly light, at 5 to 10 mph, generally from the south. Overnight lows may briefly fall below 80 degrees.

Tuesday through Friday

Our weather for much of the week will basically be rinse and repeat: highs in the mid-90s for most locations, and a decent (think 40 to 50 percent chance) of showers daily. For most of us, the showers will quickly pass, but there could be isolated, heavier downpours. Since we’re in the middle of August it’s going to be plenty humid with very warm nights. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure builds heading into the weekend I believe we are likely to see decreasing rain chances and rising temperatures. Expect mostly sunny skies this weekend, with high temperatures generally in the upper 90s for areas away from the coast. If you’ve been waiting for (or dreading) the summer sizzle, it appears to be headed our way.

Next week

If high pressure does start to more directly influence our weather, how long will it last? That’s a question I really cannot answer, but there are at least some small indications that perhaps a rainier, slightly cooler pattern will return by the middle of next week or so. At least that’s the hope I have. We’ll see.

Atlantic tropics

The big storm everyone is watching this week is Invest 97L, which I mentioned in the introduction. I think there’s a good chance this will become the season’s first Atlantic hurricane, but for now it’s eventual forecast remains uncertain. What we can say is that it is almost certainly not a threat to the Gulf, or Texas. Matt will have plenty more information on this system all of this over at The Eyewall.

In brief: Hot and humid weather with daily shower chances awaits Houston over the next several days, typical for August but perhaps encroaching on 100 degrees at times. Today, we also dive in deep on the tropical noise that’s been percolating on some weather models.

IAH hit 100 degrees again yesterday. Before you go stand outside Terminal B with pitchforks due to construction the perceived hot bias, there were a string of 99s and 100s yesterday recorded across the north and west side of town. Wednesday’s 100 felt a little less valid. But again, compare IAH to IAH, not to the rest of the city. We saw mid to upper 90s mostly, and we’ll probably do it again today. Nothing unusual for August.

Today

We’ll have one more slightly hotter than usual day today with highs approaching 100 degrees in spots, especially north of I-10. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely with daytime heating again, and any of those storms could produce some brief downpours and the potential for some gusty winds.

We may still have residual haze, especially this morning. That’s due to wildfire smoke from Canadian wildfires. This is a problem that much of the country has been dealing with at times in recent years.

Weekend

Both days should be fairly typical for August. We’ll see highs in the mid to upper-90s, possibly leaning more toward mid-90s on Sunday with slightly higher coverage of showers and storms. But, sunny, hot, and humid with daily isolated to scattered downpours and thunderstorms.

Next week

There’s nothing particularly notable about next week’s weather right now. It looks like we’ll have a few isolated to scattered showers or storms each day, especially on Monday or Tuesday. Temperatures may try to rebound back closer to the upper-90s again. But overall, it looks like very basic August.

Tropics

First and foremost, we’re good here for the next 7 to 10 days in Houston. We’ve got no concerns noted on modeling right now.

All that said, it’s getting to be the time of year where we do start watching more and more things, even some of the innocuous looking ones. We’ve had some deterministic (operational) model guidance (the GFS, the Euro, etc.) go crazy in the day 14 to 16 timeframe lately. This bears repeating. The day 14 to 16 timeframe. Deterministic modeling has virtually no skill at that timeframe. So, while we are certainly empathetic to people getting a little unnerved when they see bad things in that timeframe, Eric and I both are realists and recognize that those runs, even if 2 or 3 in a row show something similar, are somewhat meaningless. Put another way, if I had a buck for every time a deterministic model wrecked a major Gulf Coast city on days 14 to 16, I’d be getting wrecked on some tropical island somewhere far, far away living the dream. I’m just saying!

So what do we do instead? We look at ensemble guidance for clues. What can the ensembles tell us about the potential for a tropical system in a more distant timeframe? Ensemble modeling is where you take a single model and run it 30 to 50 times but tweak the initial conditions, or what the model starts from. We can’t get a perfect snapshot of the entire atmosphere over the entire globe, so we have to improvise a little. Ensemble guidance is that improv.

Okay, let me show you a perfect example of this. Here’s last night’s GFS operational model for hour 294, which is day 13.

That’ll get your attention! And it has been showing this for a few days, though it varies in location between the Caribbean, the Carolinas, and out to sea. But what do the ensembles show?

Not all lines on a spaghetti plot chart are created equal. Some of the lines above may be ensemble members that are slightly more skilled than others. That’s a tough lift to figure out specifically in every situation. But the point is this: Yes, the GFS operational model may be right! But according to the ensembles there are a bunch of other options too, including many that go out to sea and a handful that come into the Gulf.

I show you this for a couple reasons. First, I want you to recognize that the scary images you often see on social media are almost always from operational models. Second, when you look at the ensemble guidance, it offers a far more nuanced take on all this that suggests the operational models are just one possible solution of many. We go through this exercise every season. It’s the same culprits from the same places with the same intentions. They’re basically preying on people’s fears to drive engagement under the guise of “we’re not saying this is a forecast (it is), but we want to just let you know what’s out there!” In reality, the picture is nuanced, complex, and not at all straightforward. A deterministic model showing Armageddon on day 13 does not make that scenario any more likely than any of the possible outcomes on the ensemble chart I showed you above. Hurricane season is a months’ long marathon. We just want you to keep your sanity.

In this specific situation: Yes, we should keep an eye on this tropical wave as it comes west over the next 10 to 12 days. It is August, and we should keep an eye on all tropical waves this time of year. Rest assured, if there’s a threat that seems realistic to Texas, we’ll be talking about it here well before it happens. You can also use The Eyewall to follow along with more of the day-to-day details.

In brief: Today’s post explains why boring and calm weather in August is the perfect ideal for Houston. This will never be a month for nice weather. But it is often a month for nasty weather. Fortunately, this year, we’re not seeing that. (So far).

August doldrums

A lot of terrible, awful, no good weather can happen in August along the upper Texas coast. Historically this is when we have seen our most terrible heat. I think about the summer of 2023, when the average daily high temperature for August was 103 degrees. This is the month when we often seen our most entrenched high pressure systems and deepest droughts. Conversely, August and September are when the region is most vulnerable to powerful hurricanes. So we can see not just droughts but flooding rains. We often go from drought to flash flooding in a matter of minutes due to the nature of tropical rainfall. Fun times.

So when I look ahead to our forecast over the next 10 days and see highs generally in the low- to mid-90s, with enough of a splash of rain—but not too much, mind you—to keep the drought at bay, I’m happy. It may be boring to forecast. It may mean no one is reading about, or really cares about the weather. But boring weather in August beats almost any conceivable alternative. So I say, with pride, that today’s forecast post is boring.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week will bring some of our warmest weather. Daytime highs will push into the mid- to upper-90s (for inland areas), with mostly sunny skies. We will see some showers offshore during the morning hours, and I expect these to develop over land later this morning and during the afternoon with daytime heating. Generally I expect about 10 percent of the region to see moderate to heavy rains, another 20 percent or so to see light rain, and then the rest of us nothing. So these will be very much hit or miss rains. Winds will be light, generally from the southeast. Overnight lows are very warm and muggy.

Saturday and Sunday

As the high pressure system over the Southwestern United States retreats a little bit this weekend, we will see slightly increased rain chances. Overall daily coverage will be about 40 percent, and again these should be very much hit or miss showers, with a few isolated pockets of heavy rain, and most areas seeing much less. A few more clouds should help limit high temperatures this weekend to the low- to mid-90s. Which, for the deepest dog days of summer, is not half bad.

Next week

This pattern of boring weather: highs generally in the mid-90s, low-end daily rain chances, and plenty of humidity, should continue for the majority of next week. It’s not glamorous, but for me in August, in Houston, every day is one of survive and advance toward fall. And we’re getting there folks.