In brief: In today’s post we discuss a shift from very warm temperatures this morning to something decidedly nicer over the next 10 days. Also, it’s probably going to rain today. How disruptive will that be for Election Day voters?

Another bold prediction

The temperature this morning is absurdly warm for early November. As of 6 am, the air temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport has only fallen to 74 degrees, which is just a single degree off of Houston’s all-time record for highest minimum temperature on this date, set just two years ago. With dewpoints nearly matching air temperatures, it is just super sticky outside.

A little more than two weeks ago I made a bold prediction, that Houston was done with 90-degree days in 2026. And I was correct. Even though we got close the last couple of days, with 88-degree readings at Bush Intercontinental Airport, we haven’t gotten back into the 90s. And after today, with a robust cold front that is the first of several on the way, we assuredly won’t.

And so I am going to press my luck a little bit with a second prognostication. This prediction is actually a little riskier, but I am going to say that this morning is Houston’s final morning in the 70s for the rest of the year. That is, every night will be in the 60s or lower for the remainder of 2026. This prediction is far from a guarantee, to be clear. But I don’t see any really “warm” nights in the next 10 days, and we really do seem to be entering a fall-like pattern that is going to hang around.

Tuesday

So it’s a big day in Houston. We’ve got a nice cold front blowing in, and it’s Election Day. Will it be safe to go to the polls? Mostly, it should be just fine. As of this morning we have some showers and thunderstorms developing well northwest of our area, over the Brazos Valley. These storms should move into Harris and Montgomery counties around noon-ish, and the peak time for showers and thunderstorms looks to be from 1 to 3 pm today, or during the early afternoon hours. (In some locations the rain may get intense for a little bit during the early-to-mid afternoon hours). Drier air will move in during the late afternoon and evening hours, and this should end the threat of rain. Most locations will pick up 0.5 inch of rain or less, but a few bullseyes could quickly receive 1 to 2 inches today. I don’t expect too much severity in the way of damaging winds.

As for temperatures, I expect much of Houston to warm into the low-to-mid 80s today, with temperatures at about 70 degrees by sunset, and lows in the 50s by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

It’s gonna be a beauty: This will be a sunny day with highs in the 70s, and moderate northerly winds in the vicinity of 5 to 10 mph. Lows on Wednesday night will fall to around 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday

The onshore flow resumes later on Wednesday, and this should allow for highs to push back up to around 80 degrees on Thursday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and a bit more humidity. There is also a decent chance of rain on Thursday or Thursday night, with lows likely in the mid-60s.

Friday

With the arrival of another front we should see mostly sunny skies on Friday with highs in the 70s. Lows on Friday night should drop into the upper 50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Saturday and Sunday

There is a chance of some light to moderate rain on Saturday or Saturday evening due to a somewhat unsettled pattern overhead. The details of this are yet to come, I’m afraid, as there is not great agreement in the models. Right now the National Weather Service is predicting a 20 percent chance of showers on Saturday, but that may be too low. Anyway, I am confident that we are going to see the ongoing influx of cooler air this weekend. Highs on Saturday and Sunday, accordingly, should only reach the lower 70s. By Monday morning I could see lows in Houston bottom out at around 50 degrees, with temperatures in the 40s for some outlying areas.

Next week

Most of next week looks pretty mild, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to start the week, and maybe lower 60s later during the week. I don’t see much in the way of rain chances until later in the week, and even then, who really knows. We’ve waited a long time for this kind of fall-like weather, so get outside and enjoy it!

In brief: Sunday’s high temperatures came to within 1 degree of the city’s all time high. Relief is on the way with a cold front on Tuesday, and for now it appears as though this front will not be particularly disruptive to Election Day activities.

A steamy Sunday

Let’s be honest, the first day of November did not feel a lot like the first day of November. Sunday’s high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport reached 88 degrees beneath mostly sunny skies and high pressure. This brought Houston to within 1 degree of its all-time high for November 1, 89 degrees. The city has never recorded a 90-degree day in November.

We should see a few more clouds today, so most of the region, instead of reaching the mid- to upper-80s should see highs in the low- to mid-80s. Tuesday will be similarly warm and muggy before the arrival of a cold front. After this frontal passage, and another surge of drier air, Houston should experience fall-like weather through the weekend and into next week. Is anyone ready for it to start feeling like the holidays outside?

Monday

We are starting out muggy this morning, with temperatures well above normal. After some patchy fog clears away we should be left with partly sunny skies today. Highs will reach the low- to mid-80s across the region, with winds from the southeast at about 10 mph, perhaps gusting up to 20 mph this afternoon. Winds continue with anomalously warm temperatures tonight, only falling to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Election Day

Tuesday is Election Day for the U.S. Midterms. If you haven’t voted early already, what can you expect for polling place conditions? At this time we don’t expect the cold front to blow in with a single line of strong thunderstorms and severe weather, such as damaging winds. Rather, beginning during the mid- to later morning hours we should see a broken line, or broad area, of showers and thunderstorms sagging down into Houston from the northwest. These showers should persist into the early evening hours. In terms of accumulations most areas should pick up 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain, so flooding does not look to be a concern. In short, while some rain is likely on Election Day, overall conditions do not look particularly disruptive. So get out and vote!

As for temperatures, I think a lot of the area will reach the lower 80s. Drier air will start to arrive later in the afternoon, with gusty winds from the northwest (gusts perhaps reaching up to about 25 mph). Lows by early Wednesday should drop into the upper 50s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These should be partly to mostly sunny days with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s in Houston. Low temperatures for inland regions could fall into the lower 50s. We’ll also see comfortable, lower humidity levels. Rain chances each day will be on the order of about 10 percent. It’s going to be really nice, y’all.

Saturday and Sunday

At this point I think we’ll probably see another front, of some sort, this weekend. This may lead to some slight rain chances on Saturday, but that definitely remains to be determined. Highs on Saturday should be in the 70s, with lows on Saturday night perhaps dropping down to around 50 degrees. Sunday looks to be mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 70s. We have an outside chance at a night in the 40s in Houston.

Next week

Most of next week should bring highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Did I mention it was going to start feeling like real fall weather around here soon?

In brief: We’re watching the chance of some rain around Houston tonight and scattered showers tomorrow. But we don’t expect that tomorrow evening’s festivities will be massively impacted. You’ll just want to stay tuned in on things. Our next cold front is slated for Tuesday with showers or thunderstorms possible, followed by a return of cooler weather.

Spooky Season

Let’s start today by talking about tomorrow. As Eric noted yesterday, there is a ton of stuff happening this weekend, not the least of which is Halloween. For the daytime crowd, we do still expect scattered showers. I may be a touch more optimistic than Eric was yesterday and say that perhaps just a third of the area will see the passing downpours.

The best chances for rain tomorrow will be in the very early morning and again after 3 to 4 PM. Yes, this means that in some neighborhoods, trick or treating may be a gametime decision. And even in those cases, the rain should end and hopefully just offer up a delay. But just please be aware of conditions before you head out. You can check the radar in our app or your other favorite weather app. While these won’t be overly crazy scattered downpours, there is the potential for some lightning. Give it at least 15 or 20 minutes after the last clap of thunder to get out on the streets.

My call for tomorrow is that daytime events should be able to go on, but if for some reason rain overperforms, there will have to be some last minute decisions to assess. And trick or treating should mostly go off fine, with a few hiccups here and there.

Now, onto the rest of the forecast.

Today

The good news is that much of Texas is seeing rain today, as some of the moisture from Tropical Storm, ex-Hurricane Vance moves into West and Central Texas.

The bad news is that Houston is not seeing much of it, and we need rain too. That said, we’ll have our chances. Look for the potential for some of this rain to try to reform over the Houston area late today, probably after 5 PM or so. We could have a few hours of moderate rain this evening before things gradually subside later in the overnight. I don’t think the entire area will see rain this evening, but there’s a chance that a chunk of the area does, especially south of Houston. If you’re heading out to pre-Halloween parties tonight, just keep that in mind.

Saturday

See the top!

Sunday

Conditions should markedly improve on Sunday. We’ll probably still have some cloud cover around, but we should see at least some sun. Highs will depend on the sun; a lot of it and we do mid-80s, little of it and we do upper 70s to around 80.

Monday

Look for a day similar to Sunday, but it should be a bit more humid. Whereas dewpoints will be in the 60s on Sunday, we may see them rise into the 70s on Monday. This will be out ahead of a developing storm system to our west. Winds may begin to pick up off the Gulf on Monday night, with gusts to 20 mph or so.

Tuesday

This developing storm on Tuesday is going to drag a front into the Houston area either in the morning or in the early afternoon. With it will be a line of thunderstorms. I don’t want to overpromise here, but it does seem like we’ll get a burst of locally heavy rain as the front passes through. We’ll have a better idea on coverage and intensity Monday and update you then.

What will it do to temperatures? We’ll probably be in the 70s Tuesday morning, maybe creeping up into the 80s again. Behind the front, we’ll fall back into the 60s and possibly into the 50s by Wednesday morning.

Rest of next week

After Tuesday’s turbulence, it looks calmer the rest of next week. High pressure will build back in over the Southern Plains, allowing for seasonably warm temperatures in the 70s to near 80 by day and 50s by night. The cloud cover hanging around between now and Tuesday should clear as well, leading to a nice 3 or so days of weather to close next week. Our next storm system should begin to impact the region sometime late next weekend.

In brief: Houston will see slightly lower humidity today before atmospheric moisture ramps up on Friday and Saturday. Will this turn into showers and thunderstorms? We’ll definitely have our chances, especially on Saturday, but rains look pretty hit or miss. Better chances come Tuesday with a really sweet fall front.

Saturday rains?

There are a lot of outdoor events in Houston this weekend. Halloween comes on Saturday, of course, along with the large downtown celebration Scream on the Green Friday night, and Boo on the Boardwalk in Kemah on Friday and Saturday. Additionally there is the Wings Over Houston Airshow on Saturday and Sunday at Ellington Airport, and so much more. All of that to say, there is a lot riding on the rain forecast for this weekend.

We are seeing some modestly drier air move into the Houston region today, and this will hang around through Friday morning. After this we will start to see increasing levels of moisture in the atmosphere. This will increase humidity levels as well as support the potential for rain showers. There will lead to the possibility of scattered, light showers on Friday.

Moisture levels will peak on Saturday, and with a series of disturbances moving through we will have the potential for more widespread showers, and possibly some thunderstorms. This activity will be pretty hit or miss, in that probably only about half of the region will see any precipitation. And amounts will be modest for most locations, probably a tenth of an inch of rain, or two. This shower activity should start to wane by Saturday afternoon, in time for trick-or-treating on Saturday evening. Sunday should be rain free.

Thursday

Temperatures have fallen to around 60 degrees this morning for parts of the area, thanks to the inflow of slightly drier air. This should lead to a partly sunny day, with highs in the lower 80s. This will be the last day with modestly lower humidity until next Tuesday or so, when a much stronger front pushes through. Rain chances are near zero with the drier air. Lows tonight will likely drop into the lower 60s.

Friday and Saturday

As discussed above, we’ll see some decent (although far from overpowering) rain chances during this period. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy on both days, with highs in the low- to mid-80s for most locations. Temperatures during the trick-or-treating hour will be in the upper 70s, with plenty of humidity. Nights will only drop into the upper 60s.

Sunday and Monday

These will be partly sunny and rather warm days, with highs in the mid-80s for the region and muggy air. If you’re ready for Houston to feel like fall, read on.

Tuesday and beyond

At some point on Tuesday a genuine fall cold front is going to move through the area. If we are lucky, and I am hopeful we will be, there will be a decent shot of rain (perhaps 0.5 to 1.5 inches in total) with the frontal passage, possibly in the form of some thunderstorms. Anyway, large chunks of Houston could really use some rain. Following the front’s passage I think we’ll see mostly sunny conditions through the weekend, with highs generally in the 70s and lows in the 50s. It should be really, really nice.