In brief: In today’s post we check in on the drought status in the Houston region (it’s baaack) and look ahead to next week when the region may see some meaningful relief. Also, are we just about done with highs in the upper 90s? Please?

Drought is back?

Houston has seen its precipitation fortunes wax and wane this summer, with June and most of July bringing widespread showers into the region before very dry conditions across most of the region in August. Much of the area has seen some relief this month (some areas near Sugar Land picked up more than an inch of rain on an otherwise hot and sunny day yesterday), but not everyone.

If we check the US Drought Monitor this week, we can see that some areas near Houston, particularly to the southeast including Clear Lake and all of Galveston county, have slid back into a moderate drought. I don’t expect much relief through the weekend. But what about after that?

There is an increasingly strong signal in the models showing that high pressure will ease away from our region, allowing for atmospheric moisture levels to increase and bring a healthy chance of rainfall into the region. We are still about a week out, but right now it does appear as though the Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday period of next week will bring a decent shot of rainfall, with the potential for a few inches. We’ll be keeping a close eye on things.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be sunny days, with uncharacteristically hot weather in the mid- to upper 90s for most of the region. We could possibly see some scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms, like the region experienced on Monday, during the afternoon hours with daytime heating. But most of us will probably just see sunshine. Humidity remains high, with warm and sultry nights. Winds will be light, from the east-northeast.

Thursday and Friday

Some slightly drier air will start to arrive later on Thursday. This will not have much impact on daytime temperatures, with highs on both days likely in the mid-90s. However, it should lead to some slightly cooler nights, with lows in the low- to mid-70s and modestly lower humidity. The most noticeable time will be Friday morning. The effect will be subtle, but there. Skies will be sunny, with rain chances near zero.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be sunny and hot, with highs in the low- to mid-90s for much of Houston. If you have outdoor plans this weekend there should be nothing to worry about except for the heat.

Next week

Monday should bring more of the same before we see high pressure move off, as discussed above. Right now the models are pointing toward Wednesday as having the best chance of rainfall, but it’s difficult to have any precision from this far out. As for temperatures, increased cloud cover and rain should take some of the heat out of daytime highs, possibly pushing us down into the 80s. The pattern will also open up the possibility of a real fall front moving into the region, but as of now I wouldn’t want to try to put a firm date on things. But I do feel pretty confident in saying that we should be done with this mid- to upper-90s malaise that has characterized much of September.

In brief: This week will bring more late-September heat into the region, with plenty of days in the mid- to upper-90s. But there does, finally, appear to be some meaningful change on the horizon for next week. Also, the Atlantic briefly had a chance at its first hurricane on Sunday.

September heat continues

High temperatures on Sunday reached 97 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. This was a couple of degrees below the day’s record high of 99 degrees, but well above normal for this time of year. The weekend continued a pattern of warmer-than-normal weather for this month, with temperatures running more than three degrees above normal. It feels pretty relentless.

Alas, this hot late summer heat is going to continue this week, with several more days in the mid- to upper-90s. The continuing heat may lead one to wonder, is this ever going to end? The answer is yes. In fact, I believe this is will be the last full week of truly summer-like weather in Houston, with fall finally showing up on the horizon. More on that below.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday

The next three days are going to feel like mid-summer in Houston, with high temperatures generally in the mid- to upper-90s in the city, with only coastal areas likely to be a few degrees cooler. Skies will be mostly sunny. Each afternoon will have a slight chance of showers along with the sea breeze, perhaps in the 10 or 20 percent range. But mostly it’s just going to be summer-like heat, with little reprieve. Winds will generally be light, from the east. Overnight lows will only briefly drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday

The greater Houston region will miss out on a cold front that will dive into the southeastern United States during the second half of this week, but some slightly drier air may push into the region from the northeast. The effect will be subtle, however. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will still be in the mid-90s for most locations, with mostly sunny skies. Thursday and Friday nights may drop into the mid-70s with slightly lower humidity, but again this will not be a ‘refreshing’ front in any sense of the word.

Saturday and Sunday

At this point the weekend looks mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances are near zero. So if you have outdoor plans they should be good to go, provided you’re mindful of the heat.

Next week

The first few days of next week are likely to see highs in the lower 90s, but at some point we expect to see a pattern change. Since we are more than a week out the details are fuzzy, but my general expectation is that by Tuesday or so we are likely to see increasing rain chances (and yes, we really could use some precipitation) before some cooler and drier air arrives during the second half of next week. How much rain, and how much cooler the air becomes, are details we just cannot know. Since we’re talking about a forecast 8 to 10 days from now we cannot be dead certain in any of this happening, but I have to say, I’m pretty hopeful.

Hurricane season

I’m not quite ready to declare the Texas hurricane season over yet (but do check back on Thursday). However last night there was a little drama in the middle of the Atlantic, with the inconsequential Tropical Storm Fay. It briefly looked as though the little storm (which got up to 70 mph sustained winds) might pulse up to a hurricane. This would have been notable because, to date, there have been precisely zero Atlantic hurricanes. But Fay did not make it, fading to 65 mph winds this morning, and facing higher wind shear levels.

In brief: After some locally heavy rain south of Houston on Thursday, we begin to revert back to strong late summer heat with mid to upper 90s back in action this weekend through early next week. Maybe we can disrupt the party a bit later next week, but it does not exactly look cool.

As Eric properly called yesterday, rain did impact much of the area south of I-10. A few locations picked up as much as 2 to 3 inches of rain, with the “official” big winner being a gauge along Cloud Bayou just south of Santa Fe which saw 2.68 inches.

Yesterday’s 88 degrees was the least hot day at Hobby Airport since September 1st, when we only hit 87 degrees. Congrats to those that saw the rain, as today and the next several days will see less of it, along with plenty of heat.

Today

Shower chances today will not be zero, but they will be highest well south of the Houston area, down toward Corpus Christi and South Texas. We will likely tack on somewhere between 4 to 7 degrees from yesterday’s high temperatures, pushing us back to the mid-90s with sun and clouds.

Weekend

We’ll continue to see low-grade rain chances persist this weekend, while the vast majority of the area will continue with a mix of sun, clouds, and high heat for late September. Highs will be in the mid-90s with a few upper-90s peppered about. This will begin to bump up against record highs which are generally 98 to 100 this time of September.

Early next week

The heat should peak around Monday or Tuesday in Houston with mid to upper 90s likely. The record highs of 100 will be safe, but barely. Storm chances may increase some later Monday or especially Tuesday as a cool front gets into North Texas. Unfortunately, it falls short of making it to Houston but having it in the neighborhood should mean we are vulnerable to some showers or storms, especially northwest of Houston. That said, don’t expect a soaking for most of the area.

Later next week

The heat may attempt to relax a bit here, nudging back into the low to mid 90s. Rain chances don’t appear especially high at this time. Overall, it will feel more like June than September for the foreseeable future. One day we will have more positive news for real!

In brief: A surge of tropical moisture is headed toward the upper Texas coast today, and we explain what that really means. After shower chances today we will have a hot and sunny weekend, with zero risk of inclement weather.

Tropical moisture, but in a good way

When it comes to weather, living near a huge body of tropical water such as the Gulf has its upsides and downsides. Among its benefits are a moderating impact on colder temperatures during the winter, and a ready source of moisture when we otherwise might plunge into drought. On the downside is that sometimes that “ready source of moisture” provides a little too much tropical moisture.

When we speak of tropical moisture it simply refers to moisture that originates over very warm tropical or subtropical bodies of water, and what differentiates it is that this warmer air is capable of holding more water vapor. This creates deep layers of more humid air and very high levels of “precipitable water,” the amount of liquid water if one were to condense all of that vapor in the atmosphere from the surface to space.

Thus, tropical moisture is capable of producing high rainfall rates. So when we have a tropical storm, it brings not only a surge of tropical moisture, but a very efficient atmospheric machine in terms of wringing that moisture from the atmosphere and generating heavy rainfall. We sometimes see rainfall rates of 3 or 4 inches per hour (or higher!) instead of the more common 0.5 to 2 inches per hours. Higher rainfall rates quickly back up streets.

Anyway, all of that to say we have a surge of tropical moisture headed toward Texas this morning. It presently is over the northwestern Gulf, but will soon move into the Houston region. This will bring some decent rain chances into our area, especially (but probably not exclusively) for areas south of Interstate 10. But since we lack a tropical storm-like environment, the showers will be more scattered and fleeting in nature, so we shouldn’t worry too much about flooding. For most of any rains today would be beneficial.

Thursday

As noted above, we have a healthy chance of showers today, which is notable because it’s probably our last significant chance of rain for several days. Most areas along and south of I-10 could pick up a few tenths of an inch of rain, but there is the potential for higher isolated totals. Coverage and amounts will be less further inland. With increased cloud cover our highs should be around 90 degrees, or perhaps a little warmer inland. We may see some gusty easterly winds. Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

For the weekend we are very unlikely to see any rain, and skies should be sunny. On Friday we should see some slightly drier air, and this will lead to slightly lower humidity during the daytime. It won’t be much, but you may notice it. The effect should fade out on Saturday and Sunday. Highs this weekend will be in the low- to mid-90s with nighttime temperatures generally in the mid- to upper-70s.

Next week

This warm, late summer pattern should persist for most of next week, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-90s. We may start to see some low-end rain chances during the afternoon hours along with the sea breeze, but these are only going to be in the 10- to 20-percent range, probably. Some kind of a pattern change, or possibly a weak front, remains possible during the later stages of next week but again, there are just no guarantees at this point. We are watchful and waiting, but prepared for disappointment. That should probably be this website’s motto for September, no?