In brief: Our forecast is fairly straightforward for the next 10 days, with most every day having high temperatures in the 70s. So we’re having a little fun today by paying homage to the music from that era.

That 70s weather

After today Houston appears likely to experience a string of days with temperatures in the 70s, and our weather will enter something of a Goldilocks zone—not too hot, not too cold. As a result, we thought we’d mix things up today by adding a splash of 70s hit songs to our forecast. So as you head into the weekend, be sure and Take it Easy.

Thursday

If you’re waiting for the 70s era to kick off in terms of temperatures, today’s a day for simply Stayin’ Alive. That’s because high temperatures won’t get into the 70s, but rather will settle into the low- to mid-60s for highs. But there won’t be that chilly wind we saw on Wednesday, and as a result it should feel a little warmer and more Happy outside. Lows tonight will be warmer as well, likely only briefly falling below 50 degrees as the airmass over our region moderates.

Friday

As Rocky Mountain High pressure builds across Texas, this will be a mild, sunny day with high temperatures in the low-70s. Winds will be from the west at about 10 mph. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Saturday

This will be just about a perfect day, with highs in the mid-70s, sunny skies, low humidity, and light winds. This is the weather Dreams are made of.

Sunday

This will be mostly a Blue (sky) Sunday. However, the southerly flow becomes a little more pronounced, we will probably see a few more clouds. Still, this will be a pleasant day with modest southerly winds. I recommend spending a lot of time outside, and that you Don’t Stop ’Til You Get Enough.

Monday and Tuesday

The 70s party continues next week. However we probably will see more clouds on Monday, and perhaps some scattered showers on Tuesday when there Ain’t No Sunshine. With dewpoints rising to about 60 degrees it will feel a little more humid, but it will still feel fairly dry when you Imagine what it feels like outside during summer in Houston.

Later next week

At some point next week we may have to say Goodbye Yellow Brick Road, and leave the 70s. It may happen on Wednesday or Thursday, when a few locations reach 80 degrees, or possibly next weekend if a front drops our daily highs into the 60s. Or it may not happen for awhile longer. Regardless our weather truly looks mild for the next 10 days or so and none of us will need be Riders on the Storm. Enjoy!

In brief: With this post we’ve invited Paige Klobucnik, an atmospheric sciences student at the University of Houston, to write about Houston’s recent cold spell and better explain what happen. Matt and I would like to bring some new voices on to the site, from time to time, so let us know what you think. -Eric

Prior to our recent Arctic outbreaks, this winter had seen a mix of afternoon high temperatures in the 70s and even 80s, with a sprinkle of freezing mornings that led to some chilly days. So how did we end up with such a cold period after a mild winter? Let’s go into detail about what caused these super-low temperatures, and what might be coming next.

Essentially, Arctic air had the opportunity to finally move further south into North America this winter. There is this big mass of cold air that sits over the North Pole called the polar vortex, which is held in place by a ring of fast-moving winds called the polar jet stream. When there are rapid temperature changes in the Arctic, along with a number of other factors, we see waves start to form in the polar jet stream. As this happens the polar vortex is disrupted, causing polar air to spill southward. This produced the rapid temperature drop experienced by the region during the last 10 days of January.

These cold spells can be intimidating since our local infrastructure is not exactly designed for harsh winter weather. Fortunately, air temperatures here remained at or just above freezing while there was abundant precipitation. Areas further inland experienced ice and snow, which happens more frequently in Texas for locations that don’t have the moderating influence from the Gulf.

Now that we’re warming up a bit as we head into February, what about the rest of winter? The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind. In the big picture, there are several different patterns that our atmosphere can fall into depending on the strength of trade winds that run to the west near the equator. These are El Niño and La Niña, which represent two opposing patterns that alter the climate we experience.

The best way to explain why our winter season has mostly been on the milder side is that we are experiencing a La Niña pattern. Below, I show how it looks when the conditions in the Pacific Ocean are normal. That is, not falling to either an El Niño and La Niña; trade winds blow from the east along the equator, moving warm water from South America to Asia. When this warm water moves, colder water from below moves up to displace what has been shifted. This is called upwelling as water shifts to fill any gaps.

Now when we see a La Niña pattern, like we are presently experiencing, the trade winds are even stronger, which means more warm water is being moved, and more cold water is being displaced to fill it in (more upwelling). For us in North America this means that our side of the Pacific is colder than normal, which can affect the whole continent’s climate.

How does this actually affect it? Well, I mentioned the polar jet stream that runs along the northern United States (the river of fast-moving winds that separates cold polar air from warmer tropical air), which influences temperature and helps drive precipitation across the states. When the trade winds strengthen and cold water upwells, it pushes this jet stream further north, which means that cold air is kind of stuck above us in the southern United States, leaving us with milder temps. And as for precipitation, it also keeps us on the dry side, as the jet stream can’t quite reach us to regularly deliver us storm systems.

But as we saw with the recent incursions of Arctic air, there is always a possibility of this jet stream moving further south and bringing us a taste of winter weather. It’s like this: La Niña is pushing the jet stream up, which in turn is fighting with the polar vortex and dragging it down. During the second half of January, the polar vortex won.

For the rest of winter I would expect milder temperatures to return, but remaining a bit on the colder side of what we observed entering the new year. However, given the fickle nature of La Niña I would not rule out an additional light freeze or two later this month.

In brief: In today’s post we review how rains on Tuesday evening helped with a drought that has persisted since late fall in our area. We also look ahead to two cooler nights before an exceptional weekend arrives in Houston.

Simmering drought

One of the quiet but persistent stories of the last several months in our region has been the development of a drought, particularly just to the south of the city. At one point about a month ago some of these areas reached ‘extreme’ levels of soil dryness. However the precipitation during the second half of January, in association with the strongest of the Arctic fronts, helped put a dent in things.

Even so, as of last week, large swathes of our region were in a ‘severe’ drought, and most of the rest of the region remained in a ‘moderate’ drought. That’s why I was pleased to see showers on Tuesday, and a line of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday evening, over-perform expectations a little. During the last day or so most of the region picked up 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with the higher totals tending to hit the driest areas. It now will not rain for awhile, so yesterday’s showers were a welcome thing for us.

Wednesday

Temperatures are about 50 degrees across the region this morning, and despite sunny skies we’re only going to warm up to about 60 degrees. With a fairly brisk northerly wind, gusting up to 25 mph at times, it’s going to feel chilly outside. Tonight will bring our coldest temperatures for at least the next week, with lows falling to about 40 in urban parts of the area, and upper 30s for outlying areas. Still, I think everyone will remain a little above freezing.

Thursday

This will be a another sunny day, with temperatures in the low 60s. However with only light winds, it will feel ‘warmer’ outside. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the upper 40s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks exceptional, with highs in the low- to mid-70s and plenty of sunshine. Only by Sunday afternoon may we start to see the incursion of a few clouds. Overnight lows will generally fall to around 50 degrees, with low humidity. Winds, generally will be light. Seriously, plan to get outdoors.

Next week

Most of next week looks to be pretty much the same day-to-day, with highs in the mid-70s and lows around 60 degrees. We probably will see some partly cloudy days and slight rain chances. But mostly, conditions will be mild. Some sort of front may arrive on Friday or Friday night, but I don’t expect sharply colder weather at this point.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the end of a very cold period of weather in Houston, which will now turn warmer into mid-February. I’m continuing to get excited about conditions for this weekend, which look to be exceptional.

End of very cold weather

Over the last 10 days Houston has experienced sharply cold weather, with seven freezing nights and four nights with low temperatures in the 20s. This undoubtedly will be the coldest spell of the 2025-2026 winter season, and it is also equally clear that we are headed for much milder conditions into at least mid-February. A number of readers will want to know whether the region has recorded its final freeze of the winter, and it’s a valid question. The answer is maybe—but we simply cannot say anything definitive about this in early February. Let’s get to the end of this month and see where we are.

Tuesday

Temperatures have only fallen to about 60 degrees this morning, and the overall airmass is fairly humid. High temperatures today will reach about 70 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. We are going to see breezy southerly winds, with some gusty conditions this afternoon. We will also see some light, scattered showers throughout the day. A more organized (but likely broken) line of showers and thunderstorms may form north of Houston around sunset, and drop down through the city this evening. This will herald the arrival of a front that will move through tonight. Any lingering rains will end before sunrise, with temperatures dropping into the upper 40s late tonight.

Wednesday

A sunny and cooler day, with highs generally in the low 60s and somewhat gusty northerly winds. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for inland areas. I’m pretty confident that even typically colder areas like Conroe will remain a few degrees above freezing, however.

Thursday

This will be another sunny day with high temperatures in the low 60s, although winds will be lighter. Lows on Thursday night should drop into the mid-40s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

This looks to be a gorgeous weekend, with highs ranging from about 70 degrees on Friday to the mid-70s on Sunday. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s, with fairly dry air. Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the period, with the possibility of slightly more sky cover by later on Sunday. Regardless, it looks to be a splendid weekend for outdoor activities.

Next week

Most of next week looks warmer, with highs in the 70s and lows around 60 degrees. We’ll probably see a few more clouds and some scattered shower chances, but nothing crazy. Some sort of a front may try to push through ahead of next weekend, but at this point it doesn’t look particularly cold. If you’re wondering how conditions are looking for the “snow bomb” reported by some social mediarologists on or around February 14, here’s the temperature outlook for that period.

That’s right, we can expect above normal temperatures.