In brief: We’re posting on Sunday to provide a forecast for the Houston Marathon next weekend, as the outlook is coming into better focus. It looks decidedly colder in the wake of a front. Also, we wanted to let you know that Monday’s post will be later than normal.

Programming note

This is a special Sunday update due to the fact that we finally have increasing clarity about the forecast for a week from today, when tens of thousands of people will participate in the Houston Marathon, and more than a quarter of a million people will show up to volunteer and spectate. I’m so appreciative of everyone who is involved.

Also, I want you to know that Monday’s post could be a couple of hours late. Why? Because I’m presently in Florida for the launch of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket, and Matt is attending the American Meteorological Society annual meeting. Finally, we are sending a shout-out to the Houston Texans for the dominating playoff win on Saturday. The team showed up when it mattered most.

Weather this week

Houston faces a rather calm week of weather, with chilly but not exceptionally cold weather. Look for highs most days to be in the 50s or lower 60s, with lows around 40 degrees give or take. Skies will be partly sunny with low rain chances after today. Friday and Saturday look warmer, with highs perhaps around 70 degrees.

Previously we’ve written that the outlook for this year’s marathon on January 19 is uncertain due to the timing of a fairly strong cold front this coming weekend. Well, we now have less uncertainty in the timing and strength of this front.

Houston marathon forecast

Since we are still almost a week out from Sunday morning, there is still some wiggle room in the forecast. However over the last 24 hours most of our modeling guidance has come into good agreement. Most likely, a front will push through Houston some time during the day on Saturday, with the potential for some rainfall (nothing too crazy, probably). Then we’ll see colder air follow overnight with gusty winds in place on Sunday morning.

Assuming this timing is correct, and again take nothing for granted this far out, expect temperatures on Sunday morning to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s in downtown Houston. However, it will feel colder if winds are, as expected, out of the north and gusty. The apparent temperature may be down closer to freezing level. Conditions will probably not warm up a whole lot during the morning with additional cold air advection from the north, even if skies are clearing. The good news is that any rain will very likely have exited the area.

The rest of the week following the marathon looks rather cold, although just how very cold we cannot yet say. A freeze is definitely possible. See you tomorrow, albeit later than normal.

In brief: After a solid 1 to 4 inch rainstorm in the Houston and Galveston areas last night, we aim for calmer conditions today. Saturday should be a lovely winter’s day, followed by a chance of rain on Sunday. Next week looks quiet with a slow warm-up after a chilly start.

One quick housekeeping item: If you missed it yesterday, those of you who use our app on Apple devices should now have a solution to issues that prevented you from receiving notifications when we post. Check that out here from Dwight.

Weather-wise, it sure rained last night. Often when we look at rainfall estimate maps, they’re fairly erratic. The one for the last 24 hours is not. Everyone saw about 1 to 2 inches, with isolated higher amounts south and east and down close to Victoria. Galveston saw nearly 4 inches of rain and peak wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

But this was just a good old fashioned coastal storm that delivered basically as promised. Now, we get some quieter weather.

Today

It will remain dreary and cold today. Look for clouds to stick around most of the day, though there could be a few breaks of sunshine. Temperatures should only warm into the mid-40s today, though if we see more clearing than forecast, we’ll make a run at 50 degrees. Winds will back down a bit, though it’ll still feel like the 30s through the day.

Tonight

Clear skies and calm winds tonight will allow for a pretty cold evening. Look for another generally light freeze with temperatures in the low-30s in the city and upper 20s in the suburbs. We could see some mid-20s in far north and northwest areas (Conroe to College Station).

Some patchy fog could develop Saturday morning as well up north. With temperatures below freezing, this could lead to a few icy patches on roads to the north of the Houston area. We aren’t expecting anything widespread, but this is something to just be aware of up north, mostly well away from the Houston Metro and suburbs.

Rest of the weekend

Saturday looks like a lovely winter’s day after any fog dissipates: Sunshine with highs in the 50s. It will be milder Saturday night with lows in the 30s and 40s as clouds move back in. Sunday is trending a bit wetter now with showers developing, especially south and east of Houston. I’m not ready to call it a washout, but it’s looking damp with perhaps up to a half-inch of rain at the coast and a quarter-inch inland. Highs will be in the mid to upper-50s.

Next week

We get a dose of somewhat cooler weather early in the week behind Sunday’s system, but it should only produce highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Just some more winter. A warming trend ensues later next week which should push high temps back into the 60s again. We are not expecting anything other than clouds and sun for most of the week right now. More cold weather may follow after next weekend, but it’s a bit soon to say just how cold that will be.

In brief: A coastal low pressure system will bring (mostly) moderate rain showers into the Houston area today and tonight. Although we don’t expect any significant flooding, this will be a wet, windy, and dreary day and night. Friday is colder and windy, followed by sunnier conditions this weekend. Sunday looks rather nice with highs of about 60 degrees.

Thursday

After cold, northerly winds since Sunday evening, Houston’s pattern will now change somewhat today as winds shift to become more easterly. This is due to the presence of a coastal low pressure system that will bring increased rain chances today and tonight. Pretty much everyone will see rainfall, but how much, and when?

I think we’ll see an initial pulse of light to moderate showers this morning, with perhaps a slight reprieve during the middle of the day. The best chance of moderate or heavier showers will come later this afternoon, and especially during the evening as a slug of moisture moves up the coast from the southwest to northeast. We should then see the potential for moderate showers through the night, and possibly into the morning hours on Friday. The system should exit to the east between sunrise and noon on Friday.

Most of Houston is likely to pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, and we could see some heavier bullseyes for coastal areas. I do not think these rains will cause any significant flooding issues, and therefore I am not putting a Stage 1 flood alert into place. Additionally, in the Houston metro area none of this will fall as freezing precipitation (the story could be different north of Huntsville or College Station). But do plan to take a little extra time out there because it will be fairly wet later today and tonight.

Temperatures will be in the lower 50s closer to the coast, and in the 40s further inland. The cold weather will be compounded by a strong easterly wind which may, at times, gust as high as 30 mph. So all in all, not a fun day or evening to be outside.

Friday

After the coastal low departs, we’ll see increasing northwesterly winds, and this will usher in another push of colder and drier air. So Friday will be a cold day, with highs in the lower 40s, and breezy conditions adding some wind chill on top. As skies clear out we’ll see ideal conditions for cold weather on Friday night, and much of the Houston area should see one more freeze. It will be light in Houston, but some areas in Montgomery County and to the northwest of Houston may see a hard freeze.

Saturday and Sunday

After the chilly start, the rest of the weekend looks sunny and warmer. Highs on Saturday should reach about 50 degrees, with nighttime temperatures a few degrees above freezing in the metro area. Sunday will be mostly sunny and warmer, with highs of around 60 degrees. Time to get back in the pool?

Next week

Most of next week looks to be slightly warmer, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s, and low temperatures in the vicinity of 40 degrees. This is fairly typical weather for mid-January. We’ll see a mixture of clouds and sunshine. As we head toward next weekend highs may climb toward about 70 degrees. There’s still a fair bit of uncertainty about weather for the Houston Marathon on Sunday January 19, as it looks like a front will be trying to come through next weekend. Temperatures, and any rainfall, will depend on the timing and strength of that front. Right now I’d ballpark start line temperatures at about 50 degrees, but there remains a wide variance in possibilities.