In brief: In today’s post we spend some time discussing the slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, and how we are increasingly late into the game for the first hurricane to form. We also discuss Houston’s brief period of low humidity on Monday, and look ahead to a blazing hot week.

What’s happening in the Atlantic?

It’s really calm out there. Based on recent climatology, the first hurricane forms in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Caribbean and Gulf waters) on August 11, on average. We are now one week past that. Moreover the period of mid-August to mid-October, which we have now reached, is the busiest time for the Atlantic. But right now there are crickets. Can this quietude last?

First of all, it would be extremely unusual to not have any Atlantic hurricanes during a season. In the last 50 years, when forecasters have had satellites and other modern detection tools, no season has gone without a hurricane. The latest date for a hurricane formation in any of these seasons is September 11, which happened in 2002 and 2013. So we are almost certainly going to get some hurricanes this year, although I would not necessarily bet on it happening before September 11.

Right now the Atlantic is just hostile to hurricanes, especially with a rapidly strengthening El Niño. We saw two reasonably promising tropical waves last week, both of which the forecast models were at times excited about, vanish into wind shear and dust. In the next 10 days or so we are likely to see a couple of more tropical waves move off of Africa. It is possible that one of these will develop into a tropical depression toward the end of August. But all available evidence suggests these will remain far from not just the Gulf, but the Caribbean as well.

As always, we will keep watching.

Tuesday

There was a brief period on Monday afternoon, around 3 to 5 pm, when if you stepped outside it didn’t feel that much like Houston. Sure, it was hot, with temperatures in the upper 90s. But we saw enough mixing of some drier air aloft to bring humidity down into the 20s (the map below shows approximate relative humidity at 4:30 pm). It didn’t last long as this drier air was soon swamped by a humid flow off the Gulf, but it was briefly noticeable. I think something similar will happen today and Wednesday, although the effect probably won’t be quite so prominent.

Alas that’s probably the most interesting part of the forecast. Highs today will be in the upper 90s for most of the region, away from the coast, with sunny skies. Winds will be light, perhaps gusting to 10 or 15 mph during the afternoon hours. Lows tonight will only fall to around 80 degrees.

Wednesday through Friday

And not much changes for the remainder of the work week: Inland highs will be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, with warm and sultry nights. Rain chances are near zero.

Saturday and Sunday

A front will die to the north of Houston, and this will introduce some slight (maybe 10 or 20 percent, at best) rain chances across the region over the weekend. But mostly we expect sunny and hot weather to persist.

Next week

Does anything change next week? Probably not. The rest of August simply looks very hot, very sunny, and very probably rain-free.

In brief: In today’s post we explain why Sunday was slightly less humid across the region, and offer two small reasons for hope about Houston’s weather. Unfortunately, in the main, we are looking at very hot and sunny weather.

You want some good news?

Look, I’ll be honest with you this morning. I always am. We are in the bleakest part of the year for weather in Houston, and sitting right under a pretty potent ridge of high pressure. In the depths of summer that means heat, that means humidity, and that means some seriously boring weather. If you want to check out of Space City Weather for the next several days I wouldn’t blame you. (But you’ll miss out on dad humor, probably).

Anyway I promised two pieces of good news. Perhaps they won’t measure up to your desperate need for good news early on a Monday morning in the middle of August, but it’s the best I can do.

1. Hallelujah, August is now more than half over. In two weeks and less than a day, this month will be finished and we can, at the very least, have some false hopes about fall being on the horizon.
2. Hurricane season in the Atlantic remains blessedly calm. There is literally nothing right now to be concerned about, and that seems unlikely to change in the near future.

Monday

You may have noticed some slightly drier air on Sunday. Dewpoints dropped into the low- to mid-60s in central and northern parts of the region, and this allowed for somewhat lower humidity. This was due to a couple of things. First of all the air 1 to 2 miles above our region was drier than normal. Then, during the afternoon hours we had efficient mixing between this air just above the surface, and our more humid air at the surface. As a result, the day was still blazing hot, but it wasn’t quite Houston humid. We also saw somewhat cooler night temperatures, with lows this morning in the mid-70s. The effect was modest, but noticeable.

A somewhat similar effect will be in play for the rest of this week, but to a lesser extent and for most of us any “lower” humidity won’t be quite as noticeable. Rather, we will see a hot and sunny pattern that just won’t quit. Highs on Monday will reach the upper 90s to 100 degrees for most of the region, except for areas near the coast. Winds will be light except for the afternoon and early evening, when they may gust up to 15 or 20 mph. Nighttime lows will drop into the upper 70s.

Tuesday through Friday

Rinse and repeat. Literally there is almost no change in the forecast: Sunny skies with highs in the vicinity of 100 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

There is a slight chance of rain this weekend (think 10 or 20 percent) as we see a bit of weakness in the high pressure. But mostly we are going to remain hot and sunny.

Next week

Our hot (temperatures near 100 degrees) and sunny pattern continues, at least through the work week. Rain chances are near zero.

In brief: Houston’s last decent chance for rain showers for a bit will occur today with some isolated downpours likely later this afternoon. After that? Rain chances scrape the bottom of the barrel, as high heat persists across the region into most, if not all of next week.

Making lemonade. Maybe.

Do you ever squeeze an orange or a lemon and get to that point where you need just a little bit more juice but you don’t want to use a fraction of another? That’s today in weird metaphors that only Matt could come up with. We are attempting to squeeze out a little extra moisture and get some cooling downpours for the Houston area before August does its thing.

A small “blob” of moisture will enter Texas off the Gulf this afternoon and evening. As this happens, when combined with daytime heating and the daily sea breeze, we could begin to see a few pop-up downpours or thunderstorms develop. Given this little surge of moisture, it’s possible that some of these downpours could be rather heavy. So my advice is to carry an umbrella today, hope you get drenched for a little bit, and then settle in for the highest of high summer. Most places will see little to no rain but a handful of you may pick up a quick inch or two.

Summer, summer, summertime, time to sit back and unwind

The forecast through early to mid-next week is brought to you by the numbers 97, 98, and 99. Maybe 100. Those will most likely be the temperatures we see at IAH each day between now and then. The forecast is also brought to you by the number “zero,” which is roughly how much rain most of us will see after today and into next week. And it’s brought to you by the letter “H,” for hazy, hot, and humid.

I won’t entirely rule out a few stray showers next Tuesday or Wednesday and again next weekend, but for the most part it looks pretty standard August over the next week. Obviously, it’s too soon to think about cold fronts, but in general it also looks like this basic pattern is going to continue beyond next week as well. Watch for emerging drought to the north of Houston also. The Houston area should be in mostly fine shape for a bit longer with regard to drought. The situation is such to our north that the NWS actually issued a summary on social media this week about emerging “rapid onset drought” in places like North Texas and the Piney Woods as heat persists into next weekend.

Bottom line: We’re stuck for a bit. Let’s hope some rain gets squeezed out later today.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the potential for some scattered showers on Friday, which will then give way to an extended period of hot and sunny weather that will persist through next week. At least.

A surge of moisture?

Houston remains more or less locked into a pattern of hot and sunny weather for the foreseeable future with one exception. On Friday we may see a burst of tropical moisture move inland from the Gulf, and this could bring some coastal showers into the region, especially for areas south of Interstate 10. Would I guarantee rain? No, I certainly would not. But with a very hot and dry pattern upcoming, it does represent a decent shot of precipitation before high pressure really asserts control.

Thursday

Expect hot and sunny conditions, with high temperatures in the mid-90s in Houston, with higher temperatures possible for inland areas, and weather a few degrees cooler near the coast. There is perhaps a 10 percent possibility of some showers briefly popping up. We will again see windy conditions this afternoon, with gusts picking up to 20 or 25 mph from the south. Lows tonight will only drop to about 80 degrees.

Friday

This is the day when conditions may align for some shower activity. If so we will likely see some precipitation develop offshore around sunrise, and then move inland into coastal areas during the morning hours. The questions are: How widespread will the showers be, and how far will they penetrate inland? And I’m not sure. My sense is that a few areas will see on the order of 0.5 inch of rain, and most of us less. With a few more clouds, highs on Friday may be 1 to 3 degrees cooler than Thursday, which isn’t saying much.

Saturday and Sunday

This weekend is going to be hot, sunny, and humid. Rain chances are likely 10 percent or less. Expect highs in the mid- to upper 90s across the region, with only the coast remaining slightly cooler.

Next week

I honestly don’t expect much to change next week. If anything our daily highs will tick up a degree or two higher. This kind of relentless pattern is why I wrote this post about August a couple of weeks ago.

The Atlantic tropics

Did you know a tropical storm formed on Wednesday? Cristobal developed briefly in the middle of nowhere in the Atlantic, and then it promptly weakened. Not an issue. There are also a couple of waves in the “main development region” of the Central Atlantic Ocean, but honestly neither of them looks bound for the Gulf. If you want the full details on all of this, be sure and check our sister site The Eyewall. But the bottom line for Texas is that things look good for at least the next 10 days, if not longer.