In brief: In today’s post we put Houston’s ongoing heat wave into context, noting that our temperatures are very warm but should generally fall short of record highs. Also could we start to see a slight reprieve later next week?

Heat wave

There is no sugarcoating our weather for the next seven to 10 days. The remainder of August in Houston is going to be brutally hot, although our daily highs should fall a few degrees below record high temperatures (which range between 103 and 109 degrees for the last 10 days of August). Normal highs for this time of year are generally in the low- to mid-90s, so we’re going to be well above that.

In terms precipitation the default forecast is no rain for the remainder of the month. However, we are going to see some weak disturbances rotating through the region over the next week, so the daily rain chances are probably something on the order of 5 to 10 percent. This means that there will be a slight possibility of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms on some afternoons. Most of us, to be clear, will see nothing for at least the next week.

There is no conclusive end to this weather pattern. The European forecast model suggests the upper air pattern will shift enough about a week from now to bring us closer to normal temperatures for this time of year, so possibly a cooler overall pattern. But I want to see more data before I find this forecast persuasive. Typically when we get locked into this high pressure patterns they are difficult to break in late summer.

Thursday and Friday

Expect sunny skies, with high temperatures in Houston in the vicinity of 100 degrees. Only coastal areas will be a few degrees cooler, thanks to the slightly moderating influence of the Gulf. Nights will be warm and muggy, with lows in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Rain chances, as noted above, are very low, but not quite zero.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast remains the same, more or less, but daytime temperatures might actually be 1 or 2 degrees warmer.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday should see continued very, very warm weather. By mid-week, or later, we could start to see daytime highs come down into the upper-90s, and the possibly mid-90s by next weekend. But am I making any promises? No, I am not.

Atlantic tropics

The tropics remain dead quiet for now, but as Matt wrote on The Eyewall this morning, we are tracking a couple of tropical waves that should move off Africa in the coming days. One of them has a decent chance of developing. However, our overall concerns for the Gulf remain very, very low for the time being.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss new heat protocols for Texas schools, and explain why they’re a good thing. Speaking of heat, Houston is going to take things up a notch through the weekend.

New heat protocols for Texas schools

For those who don’t know, the University Interscholastic League, or UIL, set the ground rules for most athletic competitions in Texas elementary, middle, and high schools. Starting August 1 the UIL issued mandatory rules for the use of Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures to monitor environmental conditions and determine the level of outdoor physical activity that is appropriate. Previously, the guidelines were recommended.

Regular readers of Space City Weather will know that we have touted Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures often (most recently, in July). The name is clunky and the way such temperatures are calculated is not super easy: these temperatures take a lot of factors into account, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, Sun angle and cloud cover to determine the amount of heat stress. But WBGT temperatures are particularly helpful for determining whether outdoor exercise or work is safe.

A friend sent me this link at which some people were commenting on how the use of these temperatures proved that today’s kids are “soft,” and there is the usual “back in my day” feedback. Well, back in your day the average August temperature in Texas was 1 to 3 degrees cooler than it is today. Moreover, there seems to be a misunderstanding about the scale: 90 degrees on WGBT is considerably hotter than a 90 degree air temperature.

For what it’s worth, this decision doesn’t mean coaches can’t hold two-hour football practices, it just means they’ll need to do so a little later in the day. Anyway, this is a great move that protects our kids from dangerous heat exposure, and the UIL is to be commended for using the best available science to guide decision-making.

Wednesday through Friday

Our weather for the remainder of the work week will be sunny and hot. Most of the Houston region, for most of these days, will reach highs of around 100 degrees, give or take. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph, but we should see afternoon and early evening gusts up to 20 mph. Skies will be sunny, with rain chances near zero. Nights will be warm and sultry.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring more of the same. The only change is a slight, and I do mean slight, chance of showers on Sunday. We’re talking 10 or 20 percent, at most, along the sea breeze.

Next week

Our forecast just doesn’t change much next week. We can expect hot and sunny conditions, with little respite. It is possible that temperatures start to moderate somewhat toward the second half of next week, but I’m making no promises. By the way, there was some social media discussion yesterday about temperatures getting down to 50 degrees in Houston at the end of August. Please ignore this as it is nonsense.

In brief: In today’s post we spend some time discussing the slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, and how we are increasingly late into the game for the first hurricane to form. We also discuss Houston’s brief period of low humidity on Monday, and look ahead to a blazing hot week.

What’s happening in the Atlantic?

It’s really calm out there. Based on recent climatology, the first hurricane forms in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Caribbean and Gulf waters) on August 11, on average. We are now one week past that. Moreover the period of mid-August to mid-October, which we have now reached, is the busiest time for the Atlantic. But right now there are crickets. Can this quietude last?

First of all, it would be extremely unusual to not have any Atlantic hurricanes during a season. In the last 50 years, when forecasters have had satellites and other modern detection tools, no season has gone without a hurricane. The latest date for a hurricane formation in any of these seasons is September 11, which happened in 2002 and 2013. So we are almost certainly going to get some hurricanes this year, although I would not necessarily bet on it happening before September 11.

Right now the Atlantic is just hostile to hurricanes, especially with a rapidly strengthening El Niño. We saw two reasonably promising tropical waves last week, both of which the forecast models were at times excited about, vanish into wind shear and dust. In the next 10 days or so we are likely to see a couple of more tropical waves move off of Africa. It is possible that one of these will develop into a tropical depression toward the end of August. But all available evidence suggests these will remain far from not just the Gulf, but the Caribbean as well.

As always, we will keep watching.

Tuesday

There was a brief period on Monday afternoon, around 3 to 5 pm, when if you stepped outside it didn’t feel that much like Houston. Sure, it was hot, with temperatures in the upper 90s. But we saw enough mixing of some drier air aloft to bring humidity down into the 20s (the map below shows approximate relative humidity at 4:30 pm). It didn’t last long as this drier air was soon swamped by a humid flow off the Gulf, but it was briefly noticeable. I think something similar will happen today and Wednesday, although the effect probably won’t be quite so prominent.

Alas that’s probably the most interesting part of the forecast. Highs today will be in the upper 90s for most of the region, away from the coast, with sunny skies. Winds will be light, perhaps gusting to 10 or 15 mph during the afternoon hours. Lows tonight will only fall to around 80 degrees.

Wednesday through Friday

And not much changes for the remainder of the work week: Inland highs will be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, with warm and sultry nights. Rain chances are near zero.

Saturday and Sunday

A front will die to the north of Houston, and this will introduce some slight (maybe 10 or 20 percent, at best) rain chances across the region over the weekend. But mostly we expect sunny and hot weather to persist.

Next week

Does anything change next week? Probably not. The rest of August simply looks very hot, very sunny, and very probably rain-free.

In brief: In today’s post we explain why Sunday was slightly less humid across the region, and offer two small reasons for hope about Houston’s weather. Unfortunately, in the main, we are looking at very hot and sunny weather.

You want some good news?

Look, I’ll be honest with you this morning. I always am. We are in the bleakest part of the year for weather in Houston, and sitting right under a pretty potent ridge of high pressure. In the depths of summer that means heat, that means humidity, and that means some seriously boring weather. If you want to check out of Space City Weather for the next several days I wouldn’t blame you. (But you’ll miss out on dad humor, probably).

Anyway I promised two pieces of good news. Perhaps they won’t measure up to your desperate need for good news early on a Monday morning in the middle of August, but it’s the best I can do.

1. Hallelujah, August is now more than half over. In two weeks and less than a day, this month will be finished and we can, at the very least, have some false hopes about fall being on the horizon.
2. Hurricane season in the Atlantic remains blessedly calm. There is literally nothing right now to be concerned about, and that seems unlikely to change in the near future.

Monday

You may have noticed some slightly drier air on Sunday. Dewpoints dropped into the low- to mid-60s in central and northern parts of the region, and this allowed for somewhat lower humidity. This was due to a couple of things. First of all the air 1 to 2 miles above our region was drier than normal. Then, during the afternoon hours we had efficient mixing between this air just above the surface, and our more humid air at the surface. As a result, the day was still blazing hot, but it wasn’t quite Houston humid. We also saw somewhat cooler night temperatures, with lows this morning in the mid-70s. The effect was modest, but noticeable.

A somewhat similar effect will be in play for the rest of this week, but to a lesser extent and for most of us any “lower” humidity won’t be quite as noticeable. Rather, we will see a hot and sunny pattern that just won’t quit. Highs on Monday will reach the upper 90s to 100 degrees for most of the region, except for areas near the coast. Winds will be light except for the afternoon and early evening, when they may gust up to 15 or 20 mph. Nighttime lows will drop into the upper 70s.

Tuesday through Friday

Rinse and repeat. Literally there is almost no change in the forecast: Sunny skies with highs in the vicinity of 100 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

There is a slight chance of rain this weekend (think 10 or 20 percent) as we see a bit of weakness in the high pressure. But mostly we are going to remain hot and sunny.

Next week

Our hot (temperatures near 100 degrees) and sunny pattern continues, at least through the work week. Rain chances are near zero.