In brief: In today’s post we discuss the scattered showers moving through parts of Houston today, and a warm-up in temperatures before a short-lived front on Thursday night. Beginning Saturday we will see a period of much warmer-than-usual temperatures that will persist through the Christmas holiday.

Christmas Day, about a week away

We are now eight days away from the Christmas holiday, and although that lies at the edge of what we would normally consider forecastable, we are pretty confident about the outlook for Christmas Day this year in Houston. Beginning this weekend a rather warm pattern is going to settle over Texas (and much of the southern United States) and this will persist through much of next week.

Therefore the most likely outcome for Christmas in Houston is a partly to mostly sunny day, with high temperatures in the upper 70s. We cannot entirely rule out rain chances at this point, but they look to be low. The air will feel fairly humid. Bottom line: Christmas this year is going to be much warmer than normal, although at this point I think we’ll fall just below record high temperatures for late December.

Wednesday

A fairly weak storm system has traversing the region this morning. It will bring scattered showers today, mostly but not exclusively to coastal areas. Overall accumulations don’t look to impressive, but we might see a few brief bursts of moderately strong showers. I expect the rains to clear out this afternoon, or the evening by the latest. Otherwise we should have a mostly cloudy day with highs in the upper 60s. Winds will be light, generally from the east. Lows tonight will only fall into the low 60s, and given the fairly high dewpoints we probably can expect to see some patchy fog develop.

Thursday

Skies should become sunny as the day progresses, and this will allow high temperatures to push into the mid- to upper-70s. A cold front will approach from the northwest by Thursday evening, but I don’t think there will be much in the way of showers, if any, with its passage. Winds will shift to come from the north, and be a bit gusty overnight as drier air moves in. Lows on Friday morning will likely drop into the upper 40s.

Friday

This will be our last “chilly” day for awhile. Expect highs in the low- to mid-60s with sunny skies and northerly winds. This brief incursion of winter-like weather won’t last long, however, as winds will already turn southeasterly by Friday afternoon or evening. Lows on Friday night should drop into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see partly to mostly sunny weather, with highs ranging from the mid-70s to about 80 degrees (Sunday looks especially warm). Overnight lows will be warm for December, in the mid-60s. The air will feel fairly humid, overall. On Saturday, as the southerly flow really gets going we could see some winds gusts up to 25 mph.

Next week

As noted above, there won’t be much variance in our weather next week, with highs generally in the range of the upper 70s to 80 degrees, partly sunny skies, and warm nights. Rain chances, overall, appear to be fairly low. Will this pattern break? Yes it will, eventually. Right now our best models are indicating that our conditions could turn cooler some time around 10 days from now, in the period of December 27 or December 28. That really is at the edge of predictability, so it is not a forecast I would feel highly confident in at this time. But hopeful? Certainly.

In brief: A warming trend takes over today in Houston with 60s likely. Rain showers or an isolated thunderstorm and areas of fog arrive tomorrow for some, not all of the area, while a very warm day sets up on Thursday. A cool front will disrupt the warming trend Friday before we surge upward again. Record highs will be at risk next week in Houston.

We’re starting off warmer this morning. In most cases, we’re running about 8 to 12 degrees warmer than Monday morning at the same time.

Tuesday

Warmer will indeed be the theme today. While it should be sunny today, there will be a fair bit of high cirrus around to dim the sun at times. Otherwise, we’ll manage 60s this afternoon and a generally lovely late autumn day.

Wednesday and Thursday

Wednesday looks like our best chance at scattered showers over the next week or so. A lot of folks will see nothing. But in general, expect low clouds, some areas of fog, and scattered showers or even a rogue thunderstorm tomorrow. Highs will shoot up to about 70 degrees.

The potential for fog, especially sea fog returns Wednesday night and Thursday morning as rain chances diminish and a warmer, more humid air mass establishes. Depending on how much sunshine we get, we could push deep into the 70s Thursday. The next cold front will hit Thursday afternoon or evening. It should not carry much, if any moisture with it, but it will lead to a sharp drop in humidity, a wind shift, and cooling temperatures.

Friday

By Friday morning, temperatures will have dropped into the 40s across most of the area.

Friday looks like a delightful day with highs warming into the low to mid-60s.

Weekend and next week

Onshore flow resumes Friday night, and we’re going to warm up big time heading into next week. Highs will push well into the 70s on Saturday and perhaps the 80s on Sunday. And from there, it doesn’t change a whole lot next week. Here’s a chart that shows each day’s record high temperature, as well as a forecast high temperature range from various operational and ensemble model guidance.

Date	Record High	Current forecast high range
Saturday 12/20	81° (1921)	77-80°
Sunday 12/21	82° (2010)	78-82°
Monday 12/22	81° (2017)	72-81°
Tuesday 12/23	81° (2020)	76-81°
Wednesday 12/24	82° (1955)	78-83°
Thursday 12/25	83° (2015)	79-84°
Friday 12/26	84° (2016)	78-83°

The wild card day right now looks like Monday, which could see a brief nudge of cooler air before temps surge again. Our next shot at a meaningful cold front may not be until next weekend or later. But the takeaway is that record highs are very much in play every day between Saturday and next Friday, with perhaps the exception of Monday. Stay tuned.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the city’s first freeze in 10 months, and how our region narrowly missed out on an Arctic blast. Our attention then turns to the potential for some light showers on Wednesday, and another brief incursion of cooler air Friday before a warm run-up to Christmas Day.

City officially records a brief freeze

It took most of the night, but according to unofficial data this morning, the thermometer at Bush Intercontinental Airport reached 32 degrees at 6:10 am CT Monday. This is the city’s first freeze since February 20. If we look at average freeze dates, since the official monitoring station was moved to Bush airport in 1969, the average date of the first freeze is December 4. So we are a little late this year, but not too late.

Not all of Houston fell below freezing this morning. Much of the city’s urban core along and south of I-10, as expected, appears to have remained just above freezing this morning. Galveston Island, as of sunrise, is a balmy 36 degrees. This is the peak of the cold for now, and probably will end up being our coldest day this December.

This front was part of fairly strong Arctic outbreak, but in the end this colder air was driven down into the United States and shoved east and southeast, rather than continuing all the way down into Texas. Accordingly we are seeing low 20s in southern Mississippi, Georgia, and the Carolinas this morning rather than Texas. That could easily have been us. This is plenty cold for me.

Monday

Although air temperatures are very chilly this morning, at least winds have fallen off. They will remain more or less light today and tonight, although they will subtly shift to come from the east. We will see mostly sunny skies today, with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Lows tonight should be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than Sunday night, so we do not anticipate another freeze in the region.

Tuesday

After a chilly start this will be a mostly cloudy day, with highs in the mid-60s. Southeasterly winds will herald the arrival of a more robust onshore flow. Lows on Tuesday night will only drop into the 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of warmer, and more humid days. Wednesday should have a few more clouds, and potentially some light showers (expect accumulations of less than one-quarter inch, for most), and this could help limit highs in the mid-70s. Thursday will have a little more sunshine, I think, and this may allow temperatures to push upwards of 80 degrees. At some point on Thursday night a cool front will push through, so we probably will wake up to chillier conditions on Friday morning. It should be a dry passage.

Friday

This will be a short-lived front, but it will make things feel seasonal on Friday. I’d expect morning lows in the vicinity of 50 degrees, followed by a sunny day in the 60s. Lows on Friday night should, once again, drop to around 50 degrees. This will likely be our final visitation of winter-like weather until after the Christmas holiday.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

After this the most likely scenario is about a week of warm and (for December) fairly humid weather. We are talking about highs in the 70s (possibly pushing 80 some days) and lows in the 60s. Skies will be partly cloudy with the occasional odd chance at some light rain showers. It is not completely out of the question that we see some sort of front during the run-up to Christmas, but at this point I would not put chances above 10 percent. So yeah, by far the most likely outcome for Christmas Day is highs in the upper 70s, with the potential for a foggy start. There is some evidence of a pattern change prior to the start of the new year, but that is far enough into the future such that I have low confidence in the forecast.

In brief: For the most part, Houston’s forecast hasn’t changed, and that’s what we’ve checked in on this Sunday to tell you. Lows in the 30s tonight across most of the Houston area, with a light freeze likely, mainly north of I-10 and outside the urban center.

Cloud cover is giving today a pretty gloomy feel, albeit perfect weather to watch the Texans. Those clouds are eroding though, and by evening, most of the area should be mainly clear.

With the clear skies, light winds, and a fresh, cold air mass overhead, we’ll be able to see temperatures drop steadily tonight through the 40s and into the 30s. This isn’t a super cold air mass, so it sort of remains to be seen how much of the area can trip the freezing mark tonight, but if I were a betting man (which after watching NFL RedZone all day, they seem to think I am), I would suspect that about 60 to 70% of places north of I-10 will do so.

Within the confines of Beltway 8, most of us will probably see 33 to 37 degrees. Between Beltway 8 and the Grand Parkway, you’re probably looking at 31 to 34 degrees north of I-10 and 32 to 35 degrees south of I-10. Outside Grand Parkway north of I-10, most places should do 28 to 32 degrees and 30 to 34 degrees south of I-10. As you can see from the map above, the core of the cold air mass shoots east of us into Louisiana with 20s for Beaumont, Lake Charles, and Acadiana. This is the type of cold weather we get at least several times a winter, so minimal issues are expected, but if you’ve got some extra sensitive plants outdoors, it may be a good idea to prep them.

But we will warm

Look, if cold isn’t your thing, we’ll do 50s tomorrow, 60s on Tuesday, 70s on Wednesday, and near 80 on Thursday. It looks like we get one more weak front before the real warming begins. Eric will have more on that in the morning. In the meantime, stay warm, and go Texans!