In brief: Tropical Storm Edouard is nearing landfall today, and it will bring some sporty winds and heavy rainfall into the upper Texas coast. For the most part the worst of these impacts will be east and north of Houston, but we’re still eyeing the potential for heavy rainfall, especially east of Interstate 45.

As of 7 am CT Tropical Storm Edouard is moving to the west-northwest at 8 mph, and is nearing the northern Gulf coast. On this track the storm will reach the coast, likely near the state line between Texas and Louisiana, around noon or shortly after today. The question is whether the storm, which still has sustained winds of 40 mph, will undergo a burst of intensification this morning, which is possible but not certain.

For most this won’t matter too much. This is because Edouard has a small wind field, and its maximum winds should fall off fairly quickly once inland. This means that areas such as Beaumont and Port Arthur could see wind gusts above 40 or 45 mph today, but in the greater Houston area we likely will only see gusts up to 25 mph or so. One exception is Chambers County, which could see gusts up to 35 or 40 mph this afternoon as Edouard moves inland. In terms of storm surge, impacts in the Houston and Galveston region will be limited. A larger storm surge, of 3 to 5 feet, is possible from High Island eastward into southwestern Louisiana.

Rainfall potential

This leaves rain as the main issue—and it really has been the main issue with this storm from the beginning. So what’s going to happen?

As of just before sunrise on Tuesday, Edouard’s showers and thunderstorms remain offshore, but they are moving closer to Texas. The thickest band of storms lies to the west of the storm’s center, so we continue to anticipate that the heaviest rains will be to the west of its landfalling location. The most probable outcome is that there is a band of heavy rainfall between Houston and Beaumont, most likely in Chambers and Liberty counties. Accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible in these areas today and tonight, with the potential for higher bullseyes.

As for Harris County and the Houston metro area, we are likely to see less rainfall, particularly for areas west of I-45. We are going to maintain a Stage 2 flood alert for locations east of I-45, but in truth most of Galveston and Harris Counties are likely to see rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches at most.

One other thing of note: The models are hinting at the development of diurnal showers tonight near the center of the storm as it moves north of Houston. Areas along, and north of Highway 105 in Montgomery County could see several inches of rain tonight—locations such as Conroe or Centerville or elsewhere. It’s difficult to pinpoint precisely where, but there is definitely some inland rainfall threat far from the coast.

Tuesday

Rain chances today will depend on whether you live in the eastern (higher) or western (much lower) half of the Houston region. Regardless, mostly cloudy skies should help keep high temperatures in most locations in the upper 80s. Although we are not expecting widespread disruptions due to weather in Houston and its surrounding suburbs today, please do remain weather aware as there could still be strong thunderstorms with heavy rain that develop in localized areas. Due to wrap-around showers from the center of Edouard, as it moves inland, we could see more rains tonight.

Wednesday

This should be another mostly cloudy day, which should help to limit highs to around 90 degrees. As for rains, I think area-wide there will be a healthy 50 to 60 percent chance of showers, so if you have outdoor activities related to school or otherwise, you should prepare for the possibility of some disruptions due to passing storms.

Thursday, and Friday

Skies turn partly to (perhaps) mostly sunny to end the work week, and this should allow high temperatures to reach the lower 90s. We are still going to have a chance for showers, most likely during the afternoon hours with the sea breeze.

Labor Day Weekend

The weekend should bring mostly sunny weather into the region, and high temperatures recovering into the low 90s, and for some inland areas possibly mid-90 to upper-90ss. Will it rain? We cannot rule out some showers over the weekend, but for the most part I think anything that develops will move through quickly. So at this point beach and pool activities should be good to go through the holiday weekend, with Labor Day on Monday.

Next week

We are likely to remain in a late summer pattern next week, with highs in the low- to mid-90s and some slight- to modest rain chances along the sea breeze. For early September this is not bad weather, it’s pretty typical as we enter the first fall front waiting room. No firm sign of that, alas. \

Our next update will come by or before 2 pm CT today.

In brief: In this evening’s post we attempt to set some expectations for Tropical Storm Edouard as it nears the Texas coast. Will we see some impacts in Houston from this storm? Yes. Are they likely to be serious for most of us? Probably not.

Latest on Tropical Storm Edouard

As of 10 pm CT, Tropical Storm Edouard is moving to the west-northwest at 7 mph, and has sustained winds of 40 mph. Forecasters expect it to strengthen into a stronger tropical storm before landfall on Tuesday, likely during its final hours before landfall, or possibly even a Category 1 hurricane.

The center of Edouard is likely to come ashore near the Texas-Louisiana border at midday on Tuesday, and then it will move to the northwest, perhaps passing near Conroe or Huntsville on Tuesday night before dissipating south of Dallas.

Let’s bring the temperature down a little bit

Earlier today I made the mistake of checking out how Tropical Storm Edouard is being covered on social media and in the news locally here in Houston, and I saw a lot of “information” about how to prepare for the storm. The reality is, for most of us, no real preparations are needed. It is important to be informed and stay up on the forecasts, of course, but you don’t need to be out there stocking up on rations or hoarding cases of bottled water.

This storm will bring some moderately elevated winds, but nothing that should lead to widespread power outages in Houston or surrounding suburbs. Seas may be elevated a couple of feet right along the coast. And most notably, we’re going to see the potential for some heavy rainfall, but this should not be an extraordinary rainfall or flooding event. We foresee some impacts to streets and highways, and we’re going to talk about that. But this is not going to be some kind of super storm.

So here’s what to expect

Overall conditions should be fairly quiet tonight. We’ll see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight into early Tuesday, but the bulk of the rains associated with Edouard remain well offshore. By around sunrise we may see some of the outer bands from the tropical storm reaching the upper Texas coast, in places like Galveston.

Winds will also start to pick up by mid-morning. For coastal locations, from High Island up to the Texas border with Louisiana it will be possible to see tropical-storm force winds, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect there. But the likelihood of such winds further south, along Galveston Island, is lower. Later on Tuesday areas along and east of Interstate 45, including up into Montgomery County, may see wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Most of the region should see gusts in the 20s, however. This will be a windy day, but not something super impactful in Houston.

In terms of rains, we still expect the heavier rains to fall just east (and possibly north) of Houston on Tuesday. We are maintaining a Stage 2 flood alert for areas along and east of Interstate 45, which means there is the potential for flash flooding in some locations, but that most of the area should be fine most of the time. It is important to be weather aware and exercise caution in heavy rainfall. Never drive into flooded roadways. A Stage 1 flood alert is in effect for areas west of I-45.

Overall we expect wide variations in rainfall—with some areas hit and other locations missing. For areas east of I-45, most locations will probably pick up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall, with higher bullseyes possible in locations such as Mont Belvieu and points east. For locations west of I-45, accumulations will likely be between 0.5 and 2 inches, with a few higher bullseyes. Areas northwest, west, and southwest of Houston, including Katy and Sugar Land, may see limited rainfall depending on the precise track of Edouard. This is probably not your storm.

Rain chances will be highest on Tuesday, but we could well see some wrap-around showers on Tuesday night and Wednesday. in the greater Houston region.

Our next update will come no later than 7 am CT on Tuesday.

In brief: A tropical depression is heading toward the upper Texas coast, and will bring heavy rainfall into the region on Tuesday and potentially Tuesday night. We have put a Stage 2 flood alert into place for areas along and east of Interstate 45, and Stage 1 to the west.

Tropical Depression forms

In its 1 pm CT update on Monday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded a tropical system in the northern Gulf to a Tropical Depression, which means it has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. A depression is a designation just below that of a Tropical Storm. Tropical Depression Five is moving to the west-northwest at 5 mph. The official forecast calls for this depression to become Tropical Storm Edouard some time later today or tonight before landfall on Tuesday. It is presently forecast to have maximum winds of 45 mph, but rapid intensification is possible. Regardless of further intensification, this will be a rainmaker.

Where is TD Five headed?

Confidence is high in the track forecast that brings the tropical system to coast by Tuesday afternoon, or so, with a landfall between High Island, Texas, and Cameron, Louisiana. Along such a track, the likelihood of tropical-storm force sustained winds in the Houston region is low, but we could see some gusts of 30 to 40 mph along the coast and Galveston Bay on Tuesday afternoon. After landfall this system should continue to move northwest, away from Houston, before dissipating.

What about rain?

This is the big question. We don’t have any concerns about flooding today or tonight, with only scattered showers expected. That changes on Tuesday, beginning around sunrise.

As the tropical system nears the upper Texas coast rains associated with it will begin to move onshore. The big risk with tropical moisture, especially at this time of year, is very high rainfall rates. Tropical storms can produce rainfall rates of 3 or 4 inches per hour (or in rare cases, even higher) which will quickly back up streets and highways. This is the case even with our soils in a very dry state after August. In terms of total amounts, we feel pretty confident that a swath of land between Houston and Beaumont will receive rains of 4 to 6 inches, with some higher bullseyes. Most areas should receive considerably less.

Based upon the latest modeling data I feel like this band of heaviest rainfall could line up as far west as the I-45 corridor through Houston, or further east, over Mont Belvieu or Winnie. Compared to this morning, our concerns about heavy rains falling over, or near Houston, are increasing a little bit. For this reason we have decided to issue a Stage 2 flood alert for areas along and east of Interstate 45 on our flood scale; and a Stage 1 flood alert for areas west of Interstate 45.

In terms of timing, we think rain chances will start to increase on Tuesday morning, peak during the afternoon hours, and persist into Tuesday evening and remain high perhaps until midnight or early Wednesday.

We will have another update by or before 10 pm CT on Monday.

In brief: In today’s post we provide the latest information on Invest 97L, which is meandering west toward Texas this morning. The primary threat is heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding, particularly east of Houston heading into midweek. We’ll be providing regular updates today and Tuesday.

Invest 97L

The tropical system has not significantly strengthened overnight, which is a good thing for coastal residents concerned about tropical storm force winds and a storm surge. (As of 7 am this morning, the National Hurricane Center still gives it a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm). This tropical system, Invest 97L, still has about 30 hours before coming ashore in the middle of the day Tuesday, so it remains possible that a tropical depression or storm could form before landfall. Coastal areas from High Island up the Texas coast to Cameron, Louisiana, should prepare for the possibility of a landfalling tropical storm.

The bigger issue for most of us, including Houston, is the potential for heavy rainfall from this system. There is likely to be a band of higher rainfall totals the accompanies this system—perhaps on the order of 3 to 6 inches as it moves inland. Tropical rainfall like this has the potential to produce flash flooding.

Right now our best guess based upon 97L’s track is that this band of heavy rain falls just to the east of the Houston metro area, between here and Beaumont. But this could shift (closer to, or further from Houston), and we will want to pay attention over the next two days to see how this system evolves. The most likely period for heavy rainfall is from early Tuesday through Tuesday evening.

In Houston, right now, our expectation is for 0.5 to 2 inches of rain, with greater amounts along and east of Interstate 45. We do not anticipate impactful winds, but again we’ll need to monitor this for possible changes in track and intensity. We will have a post this afternoon, no later than 2 pm, to provide the latest forecast information.

Monday

Today will be business as usual in terms of the heat we’ve been experiencing of late, which is to say we can expect widespread high temperatures in the mid-90s in Houston, with highs in the upper 90s further inland. Scattered showers associated with Invest 97L will be possible to the east of Houston, but I’m skeptical that we’ll see too much activity within the metro area itself. Overall rain chances today are probably only about 20 or 30 percent, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be fairly light, from the east.

Tuesday

As noted above, Tuesday is when rain showers associated with the tropical system are most likely. While the details are still a bit uncertain, it appears that rain chances will start to increase during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday and peak during the middle of the day. Will everyone see rain? After a very dry August we’re all pretty desperate for precipitation. Chances are highest to the east of I-45, but at this point I do think a majority of the city and surrounding counties will see precipitation, although areas such as Katy and further west may well miss out. Highs on Tuesday may peak in the 80s for some locations due to showers and cloud cover.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The rest of the week should see highs in the low 90s, with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Although the threat of heavy rainfall should be gone, we’ll continue to see decent (30 to 50 percent, probably) shower chances each day along with the sea breeze. This should be fairly typical weather for early September.

Labor Day Weekend and beyond

We are going to see a continuation of this pattern into the holiday weekend, most likely. I think daily highs this weekend will be in the low- to mid-90s with partly to mostly sunny skies. Will it rain this weekend? We certainly cannot rule it out, but if we do see precipitation it likely will come in the form of a passing shower that moves through fairly quickly. We should start to get more confidence in the Labor Day weekend outlook after 97L passes on Tuesday.

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