In brief: Dry weather will continue in the Houston area for the foreseeable future with warm to hot afternoons and somewhat pleasant mornings. Drought is expanding in Houston now, and with that comes some elevated wildfire risk, particularly today north and east of Houston. Thankfully, winds look generally light on land.

Good morning, and if you’ve stepped outside this morning, it really does feel kind of good! Much of the area is seeing temperatures in the 60s this morning.

Tonight should be even a bit cooler. Low humidity will allow for cooler nights and continued warm to hot days heading into next week.

Drought update

A couple notes on that drier air: First off, drought has finally begun to creep into the Houston area.

We’ve seen some drought on the fringes, but that has now begun creeping into the immediate metro. With no rain expected over the next week, this should continue to slowly expand. Thankfully, we were able to bank some rain this summer due to the frequent cadence of daily storms. But that only gets you so far once you get to autumn.

Wildfire risk

Because of this dry, less humid weather and expanding drought, human-caused wildfire risk is somewhat elevated, particularly today and possibly tomorrow. Please continue to use extreme caution outdoors when it comes to anything that could lead to a fire. Thankfully the winds are well below Red Flag Warning criteria, but even still, this is a reminder that wildfires can and have happened here before.

Humidity levels increase enough to suppress wildfire risk after tomorrow. We may get a brief reinforcing “cool” front next week, but aside from that, today should be the most elevated day for fire risk for a bit.

Forecast notes

The forecast is pretty straightforward other than what we’ve discussed above! We expect little to no rain over the next 7 to 10 days. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Morning lows will be in the lower 60s tomorrow, then mid to upper 60s heading into next week. Not a whole lot of risk or wrinkles to this forecast right now. So, expect sunshine, occasional ozone alerts, and continued bad allergy weather. Both the good and the bad in early October in Houston.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the fire risk for Houston posed by the influx of drier air today and Friday in Houston. A weak front will lead to modestly drier air and cooler nights this weekend, and a continued pattern of late-summer weather next week.

A backdoor front arrives

A modest pattern change will set the tone for Houston’s weather for at least the next week. A modest front bringing drier air from the northeast, along with expanding high pressure, will drive dewpoints lower and lead to slightly cooler days and nights. This weekend will see the driest air, but even into next week we are going to see less humidity than Houston has experienced the past several days. Rain chances are basically zero for at least the next seven days. The drier air will come with the increased potential for wildfires, especially on Thursday and Friday as winds from the northeast pick up.

Thursday

Winds have already started to increase from the northeast this morning, and will gust up to 20 mph today. Accordingly, we should see a slow influx of drier air over the next 24 hours or so. Houston will see sunny skies today, and highs generally in the lower 90s. For much of the area, appreciably drier air is unlikely before later tonight, when lows should drop into the upper 60s for most locations.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

These three days will be similar, with highs around 90 degrees, and most of the region experiencing lows in the 60s (urban Houston and coastal areas in the upper 60s, with cooler conditions further inland), and sunny skies. Humidity looks to be lowest on Friday, but moderately drier air will hang around through the weekend.

Next week

With high pressure in place, most of next week will continue to bring sunny skies, with highs around 90 degrees, and nighttime lows in the vicinity of 70 degrees. Humidity will be present, but not at summertime levels. We continue to see some evidence for some kind of front by next weekend, but how strong, and whether it brings meaningful rain, is impossible to say.

In brief: Houston is not out there setting records, but temperatures are definitely running well above normal for early October. However some modest relief is on the way with a weak front arriving on Thursday. Unfortunately it is unlikely to bring much rain, which we could use with another dry spell ahead.

Early October heat

The average high so far this month has been about 93 degrees, well above the normal of 85 to 87 degrees. The heat has not been record-setting, but it’s definitely been warm for this time of year. Thanks to the arrival of a weak front on Thursday we are going to see daily highs and lows come down a few degrees. We still will be slightly above normal, but thanks to drier air the mornings and evenings will definitely feel more pleasant after today.

Wednesday

Highs today will get into the low- to mid-90s for much of the region, away from the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny. On Tuesday afternoon, along the sea breeze, we saw the development of some isolated to scattered showers, and that pattern will remain in place today. Overall chances are fairly low, probably on the order of 20 percent. Paltry as that may be, however, they do represent our best rain chances for awhile. After today, and well into next week, overall daily rain chances look to be on the order of zero percent. We’ll have another fairly sultry night, with lows in the lower 70s.

Thursday

This will be a sunny day, and highs once again will likely reach the lower 90s. However, during the afternoon winds should start to increase from the northeast, and this will be the beginning of the influx of a drier air mass. Some time after midnight dewpoints will drop into the 50s, with air temperatures in the 60s for much of the region.

Friday

This will be a sunny day, with a high temperature in the upper 80s, and fine, dry air. Lows Friday night will drop into the 60s, but how far will depend on how far you live from the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

Our sunny weather, with modest humidity, continues. Highs will be in the vicinity of the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Lows will be in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. With sunny skies, rain chances remain near zero.

Next week

This pattern of late summer/early fall-like weather continues next week. Humidity won’t be low, but it won’t be super high, either. Clouds will be difficult to find. The forecast models are still hinting at the possibility of some kind of change toward the end of next week, or the weekend, but there is no strong signal yet for what is to come.

In brief: Today’s post discusses a weak front arriving by Thursday or so, and explains why this is called a backdoor front. After this we have zero weather concerns for the weekend before calm weather persists for most of next week.

What is a backdoor front?

We are not speaking here of “backdoor” in the sense sometimes alluded to in popular music, from the Doors to Sabrina Carpenter. After all, this is a family friendly website. No, when we talk about a backdoor front it refers to the direction that a cold front typically arrives from.

Most commonly we observe fronts coming out of the north or northwest as a frontal systems drops into Texas from the Great Plains, and down to the Gulf coast. The strongest of these kinds of fronts is sometimes called a “blue norther,” but we usually don’t see these until December, if at all during the winter.

By contrast, a backdoor cold front is a front that approaches from the east or, more commonly here, the northeast. We often see these during the early fall and late spring time frame. And so it will go this week, as a high over West Texas drags drier air into the eastern part of the state. At this point it looks as though the greater Houston area will see a decent shot beginning Thursday evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Skies will be mostly sunny for the next two days, with much of Houston reaching the lower 90s during the afternoon hours. Areas far to the west and north of Houston may reach the mid-90s, whereas the coast should be a few degrees cooler. Winds, generally, will be light from the east. On Monday afternoon we saw a few isolated pockets of showers, and I think that will again be the case today and Wednesday, although overall chances are likely 20 percent or less. (Crazy to think, but these are probably our best chances for rain until at least early next week). Lows will only fall into the mid-70s, with a fair bit of humidity.

Thursday

The aforementioned front arrives on Thursday, and it likely will bring no precipitation with it. However, it will usher in drier air from the northeast over time. We’ll feel that in the form of northeasterly winds on Thursday, perhaps gusting up to 20 mph. Highs will be about 90 degrees, with lows Thursday night likely dropping into the 60s (see forecast map below).

Friday

This day should see the driest air of the week, with relatively low humidity and highs in the upper 80s for most locations. Skies will be pure sunshine. Lows Friday night should again drop into the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring more sunshine, with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. If you have plans for outdoor events you have zero weather concerns aside from the need for sunscreen. Lows will drop to the vicinity of 70 degrees. Humidity is not exactly low, but it won’t be high, either.

Next week

Most of next week should bring more sunshine, with highs of around 90 degrees, lows around 70, and moderate humidity. Rain chances look to be near zero before next weekend, when some kind of pretty decent front could arrive. We don’t have any firm details or high confidence yet, I’m afraid.