In brief: After yesterday’s smattering of decent rain in spots, Houston will continue to see at least spotty to scattered showers and storms the next several days. A cool front is expected to disrupt the warm and humid weather early next week, with some uncertainty on just how far through the area it gets. Also, don’t forget to turn back the clocks tomorrow night!
Houston saw a wide range of rainfall yesterday, with a couple of areas clearly cashing in, while others struggled. The big winners were in Richmond, Rosenberg, and just west of Sugar Land, where close to 4 inches fell. Galveston and Brazoria Counties did well also with a general 1 to 3 inches in most spots. Beaumont did well to our east, as did Brookshire to our west. All in all, I’d venture to guess that about 60 percent of you are pleased with what has fallen so far, while the other 40 percent are smarting a little.
The good news is that we are not quite done with the rain yet, but the bad news is that it will be very spotty over the next few days.
Today through Sunday
Look for sun, clouds, and a smattering of showers each day. Exactly where and when these occur is impossible to predict, but the environment is supportive of at least a 30 to 40 percent rain chance each day. No need to alter plans, but have a spot in mind to scoot to if it rains for a brief time. Highs will be generally in the low to mid-80s with lows in the 70s and muggy conditions.
Oh, and don’t forget to set the clocks back an hour tomorrow night. I used to joke that I would have to adjust my temperature forecasts because of “one hour less daylight.” Meteorologist humor.
Anyway, have the umbrella handy but hopefully the rain won’t bother you too much.
Monday and beyond
Next week will be a bit of a tricky forecast. Monday should start off much like the weekend with high humidity, warm, and humid conditions. We’ll continue a chance of a shower or storm. On Monday night, a cold front will approach Houston. It should push through the area, but there are hints in model guidance that the front will probably stall near the coast or just offshore. Assuming that happens, we will turn slightly cooler and less humid on Tuesday and Wednesday. I’d expect highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.
Nothing too special there, but it’ll feel refreshing at least! That front may actually come through with a little oomph on Tuesday morning, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a line of thunderstorms douse everyone with a half-inch to inch of rain and some thunder.
After Wednesday, the front will probably push back onshore Thursday, ushering back in warm and somewhat humid conditions before the next front. When will that arrive? Maybe next weekend? We’ll see. Model guidance has been a little wonky in the extended range lately in terms of timing and strength of fronts, so I don’t want to overpromise anything.
Tropics
Yes, it’s November 1st, and yes Houston’s hurricane season is (historically) done. We don’t need to worry about the system in the Caribbean with a 70 percent chance of development.
However, it could be a player in the weather across the western Caribbean next week. We can’t get too specific on anyone’s forecast, but if you’ll be traveling to the western Caribbean or Central America next week, keep tabs on things at our companion site, The Eyewall.
In brief: After a long dry spell Houston has finally undergone a pattern change, and we’re now in a period in which there will be a healthy chance of rain for at least the next five or six days. For today, our latest modeling suggests that rainfall will wind down late this afternoon, but there’s a risk of scattered showers at sunset for some locations north of Interstate 10. A weak front next week should bring drier air to the region.
A few housekeeping notes
First of all, if you missed our monthly Q&A we published on Wednesday, be sure and check it out. Dwight Silverman collects questions and every month Matt and I dig into the mailbag and respond to your weather-related queries. Heck, I’d even take space questions if you’ve got them, and I’m sure Matt would love nothing more than to write long encomiums about Rutgers basketball if readers so desire. Which I’m sure you don’t. Because how could you?
I also want to thank everyone who came to the first-ever Space Happy Hour last night at Space Center Houston. It was great to meet so many fans of the site. As a quick reminder, we did not hold a “Fall Day” celebration this year because we’re going to hold a bigger event next year to mark the onset of fall and also the 10th anniversary (!) of the founding of Space City Weather.
If you’re wondering why this post is late this morning, it’s because I’m torturing—I mean training—for the Houston marathon again this year and I had to knock out 12 miles. Let me tell you, running that in 100 percent humidity really, really sucks. Why didn’t I wait for cooler weather this weekend? Because there is no cooler or drier weather coming this weekend. Finally, we’re going to post our winter outlook next Monday, so be on the lookout. We are going to have a winter in Houston this year, right? RIGHT?!?
Thursday
Happy Halloween! I hope your kids aren’t wearing tight-fitting plastic costumes this evening, because those little guys and gals are going to be heading out into some pretty thick humidity. The question is, will it be raining at around sunset?
As of about 7:30 am there’s a fairly robust line of showers to the west and southwest of Houston, and I expect those to move generally eastward today. Throughout the day most of the region should at least see some intermittent showers, with parts of the area likely seeing brief downpours. When it’s not raining we’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine, with high temperatures likely in the low- to mid-80s.
By late this afternoon and early evening, shower activity should be winding down. However there could be some remnant boundaries, along which there will be the potential for some additional showers and thunderstorms between 6 pm and 10 pm. I expect this activity to be fairly scattered, and located north of Interstate 10. So it’s something to be aware of this evening before heading too far from home. No candy is worth tempting fate with lightning.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
We’ll see partly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s through the weekend. Each day will likely bring intermittent light to moderate showers, possibly with a few thunderstorms. We don’t expect any washouts, but our overall wetter pattern should persist. So have an umbrella handy and a contingency for any outdoor plans if a shower pops up overhead. For the most part, I expect these showers to pass fairly quickly. Nights remain warm and humid, generally in the mid-70s.
Next week
Oh my friends, I wish I could offer you a clear-cut forecast for next week. But as of yet, such a thing does not exist. Generally speaking, I expect a fair bit of rain on Monday evening and Tuesday of next week, ahead of a front. There’s the potential for areas to pick up 1 to 2 inches with this system, which will do some nice work on the drought if it develops. Then a weak front probably moves through on Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing some drier air and cooler temperatures. For now my expectations are that we might see some lows down around 60 degrees, but that could go higher or possibly lower. There’s a decent chance we get a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air by next weekend, but I certainly would not count on that. Not at all.
We’re cutting it so close to the end of the month that it’s … scary! 👻 But here’s October’s SCW Q&A post, just in the nick of time! As usual, Eric and Matt address a wide variety of topics from the solar flares and the damage they do; to the damage a Hurricane Milton-type storm might do locally; to classic weather maps with front lines … and more!
Q. Whenever there’s a solar flare big enough to push the Northern Lights as far south as Texas, I always read that they can also disrupt communications and even affect power lines. But I have never seen reports of that actually happening. Are there any instances of flares disrupting these things?
A. I recently wrote about solar storms for Ars Technica, so I’m familiar with the issue. Just to recap: solar storms are triggered when the Sun ejects a significant amount of its magnetic field and plasma into the solar wind. When these coronal mass ejections reach Earth’s magnetic field, they change it and can introduce significant currents into electricity lines and transformers, leading to damage or outages.
The solar storms we’ve been seeing of late, earlier this month and back in May, were very strong, rated G5 or ‘extreme’ on the most commonly used scale. There have been some modest effects, such as on satellites. But by and large, our planet’s strong magnetic field has shielded us from the worst. The sobering thing to think about is that these recent storms, although strong, are far from the strongest storms imaginable. The most intense geomagnetic storm on record occurred in 1859, during the so-called Carrington Event. If such an event were to happen today, it likely would be rather damaging to our power and telecommunications systems. But just how damaging? We really don’t know for sure.
– Eric
Q. After seeing Hurricanes Beryl, Helene and Milton and seeing all the damage, what would have happened if we had been hit by Helene or Milton? I live on the border of Bellaire and Houston and love living here. I am seriously considering moving.
A. What would happen? Bad things. It really depends on where a storm makes landfall, but for the purposes of this question let’s say the storm makes landfall at San Luis Pass (the southern end of Galveston Island), perpendicular to the coast. We’ll focus on Helene, since it was stronger at landfall (140 mph sustained winds). This is what I consider to be a realistic worst-case scenario for the Houston region as it puts a significant storm surge into Galveston Island and Galveston Bay, potentially also pushing a large surge into the extensive chemical facilities along the Houston Ship Channel. This is an environmental disaster waiting to happen.
Worse, however, would be the winds. Such a track and landfall intensity would put a majority of the greater Houston area under Category 1 to 2 winds (approximately 40 mph higher than experienced during Beryl). This would likely knock out electricity not for days, or weeks, but rather months for some people. Damage to roofs and structures would be catastrophic, likely exceeding $200 billion. The long-term consequences of the power outages, future insurance costs, and damage would likely forever alter our community. Sorry for going so negative, but a powerful Category 4 hurricane striking Galveston Island and moving into Houston is exactly the kind of storm that keeps me up at night. I very much hope to never live to see it.
– Eric
Q: I have been astounded by the sheer volume of, for lack of a better term, hurricane denial following Hurricane Milton. Aside from the weather control/manipulation “preposteria,” there has been a great deal of discussion of Milton being a lesser storm at landfall (Cat 1 or tropical storm) than the 120-mph Cat 3 figure given by the National Hurricane Center. The basis for this claim is focused upon observed sustained wind values on land as the storm moved inland. With a storm like Milton, what are reasonable expectations of observed wind speeds given the 120mph max sustained values at landfall? How does the interaction with land affect observations? How do observed values in other storms correlate with NHC figures?
Land affects wind speed. Because there’s so much “stuff” on land (trees, buildings, rocks, dirt, etc.) there is friction to slow the wind down. Compare running your hand over the surface of a bathtub to a surface of sidewalk concrete. There’s a difference there. Wind will slow down significantly over land than water. So when you have hurricane hunters measuring the intensity of a storm over water, they’re getting what is basically a “true” capture of what’s happening because the surface winds are dramatically less impeded by friction when they’re over the ocean surface. But every hurricane will have lower wind than that on land. With every storm, we have people, even meteorologists complaining that no one observed wind on land at the levels the NHC said the storm was at. Scientifically, that’s what is supposed to happen! It’s not always easy to explain to people though. Some even say it’s “their” way of hyping up a storm.
Every so often a storm will be able to mix down stronger winds over land, something that is dependent on a number of things. We probably saw this with Beryl here in Houston where we had 80 mph wind gusts make it well inland. That doesn’t mean that Beryl was a category 2 storm at landfall (that will be assessed in the postseason), but it was a case where the measured intensity of the storm over water matched what was observed over land as well.
There’s a broader point to be made here that would qualify the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricanes as an antiquated way of measuring a storm’s true intensity and power. But the simpler point here is that measuring wind is hard, and the system we have now is what it is. So now you know: Friction is usually your friend.
–Matt
Q: Does the surface temperature over land have any effect on how quickly a hurricane/tropical storm abates? Nighttime temperatures fell to the mid-40’s in Asheville, NC. If it had been that cold on September 26-27, would the storm damage have been less severe to any significant extent?
A: Simply put, the answer is that it has little impact. If a hurricane is coming, the circulation ahead of it will almost always usher in warm, humid air concurrent with the heavy rain and stronger winds. In this case, Helene approached from the south and tracked just southwest of Asheville. Because of this, winds were out of the southeast ahead of the storm, which tapped into much warmer and humid air. Had Helene tracked 250 miles east of where it did, winds in Asheville would have been out of the north and it would have been much cooler and less humid. Basically, the track of the hurricane helps dictate the temperature, but the intensity of the hurricane is unlikely to be impacted in any way by the actual land temperature.
Now, land can impact a hurricane via the brown ocean effect. Essentially that’s when the ground is either so saturated ahead of a storm or so much rain falls in front of the hurricane that it acts more like a shallow body of water than land. It also needs to be warm. In that case, a tropical storm’s intensity can ebb more slowly or in some cases it can even maintain intensity. It’s unlikely that happened during Helene, but we have seen that in other storms before. This was most notable during 2007’s Tropical Storm Erin in Oklahoma and north Texas.
–Matt
Q. Love your reporting. Just curious, is there a map that shows where fronts are on the map and their path? I see it on tv weather all the time and with all the talk about fronts pushing through, I was just curious the best way to see those fronts on a map.
A. The best such map available online comes courtesy of the National Weather Service, and it is updated daily during the pre-dawn hours. Here’s a direct link to the national map, and here’s the overview page. Note that if you click on the “animated forecast maps” link from this second page you can see a seven-day forecast that includes fronts. Enjoy!
In brief: As the amount of moisture in our atmosphere increases, we’ll see higher humidity and improving rain chances from today through early next week. It won’t feel like November outside, that’s for sure. As for Halloween, we’ll see daytime showers on Thursday, but I’m hopeful that there will be some clearing by the early evening hours when the kiddos are out and about.
Big picture
With the robust southerly winds we’ve seen over the last couple of days, plenty of moisture has returned to our atmosphere. We’ve already felt that with rising humidity levels, and the sticky air will be with us until at least next Monday or Tuesday as a southerly flow prevails. However, this fertile atmosphere will also set out a welcome mat for a (very) weak front that will sag into the area over the next couple of days.
This environment will support the region’s first widespread, and meaningful rainfall in nearly two months. One should not expect complete relief from the drought-like conditions that have developed over Houston; however any rainfall at this point will be very much appreciated by our region’s flora and fauna. I’m hopeful that most of Houston and surrounding areas will get about 1 inch of rain.
Wednesday
As we look at the radar this morning, for the first time in what seems like forever there is a decent amount of offshore activity. Over the next couple of hours we will see the development of showers on shore. This activity will be fairly scattered, and favor the eastern half of the area. Rain chances are about 50 percent, and we cannot rule out a few thunderstorms. Skies, otherwise, will be partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Winds will blow from the south, with some gusts up to 20 mph or a bit higher. Low temperatures tonight will be muggy, in the mid-70s for most locations.
All Hallows’ Eve
Expect another humid, partly sunny day with highs in the mid-80s. Rain coverage will probably be greater on Thursday than Wednesday, with the potential for some thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. We expect to see a diminution in shower activity as evening comes on, but there may be some lingering showers near sunset (6:35 pm CT) as darkness comes on. Our advice? If it’s raining when you want to go trick-or-treating, just wait a bit as shower activity should subside. It will be plenty humid outside during the evening hours, with overnight lows eventually dropping into the mid-70s.
Friday
A day a lot like Thursday, albeit possibly with slightly less shower coverage.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend will bring partly sunny skies, highs in the mid-80s, and plenty of humidity. With the state of the atmosphere I’d expect a decent chance of showers each day, although it’s difficult to say whether that’s closer to a 1-in-3 or 2-in-3 chance for most of Houston. In any case, just know there’s a chance that any outdoor plans may be briefly disrupted by a passing shower.
Next week
Monday and Tuesday should see a continuation of this sticky pattern with scattered rain showers. Beyond that it’s possible we may see a weak front on Tuesday or Wednesday to bring a bit of drier air, followed by a stronger front next week to really cool us down in a meaningful way. Until there’s meaningful agreement in the models I don’t want to make any promises.