In brief: With the World Cup’s Houston leg kicking off on Sunday, we take a look at the different types of weather our visiting nations usually experience at home and how they compare to our weather here in Southeast Texas.

We wanted to have some fun with the World Cup participants coming to Houston this year, so as a weather site, we decided to take a weather angle. Let’s learn some new things about global weather!

A lot has been made of this World Cup and the heat some of the teams will face on the pitch across North America. Here in Houston, thankfully the games will be in the climate-controlled confines of Reliant Houston Stadium (apologies to our gracious sponsors Reliant for removing their name on the stadium, but everything about the FIFA needs to be sanitized and controlled, of course). ANYWAY. It could be 110 degrees outside, and the teams playing each other in the stadium would never know it. But, during the rest of their stay in Houston, they will get reminders of our climate here in Southeast Texas. So we wanted to ask the question: How does the weather stack up in June in Houston compared to the countries where these national teams are coming from?

First, let’s introduce our contestants.

Germany
Curaçao
Portugal
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Netherlands
Sweden
Uzbekistan
Cabo Verde
Saudi Arabia

We won’t get into the knockout rounds for the purposes of this post. First, take a pause, look at the list, and take a guess as to which countries have the most similar weather to Houston and the most *dissimilar* weather to Houston. I am writing this before researching, and I will throw out Curaçao and Sweden as most and least similar respectively as guesses.

So with that out of the way, let’s go down the list and start comparing.

Germany

From what I have read and heard, Germany can be lovely in June. The first Reddit hit I get on Google in r/germany is entitled “June in germany Sucks,” however, so I suppose your mileage may vary. It’s also fairly large. Germany can have some variable weather in June from place to place, with temperatures ranging from the upper-60s to 80s most days. Heat waves can occur with temperatures well into the 90s. Taking June 15th as a decent proxy for the month and looking at the four largest Germany cities, here’s what we get.

City	Average High	Average Low	Record High	Record Low
Berlin	71°	56°	86°	45°
Munich	72°	53°	86°	39°
Frankfurt	75°	55°	90°	43°
Hamburg	70°	52°	86°	41°

Records can get into the low 90s in most places, with even some mid-90s. The sun sets as late as almost 10 PM in Hamburg, which is the farthest north of these cities as well, so there’s plenty of evening light to enjoy. Temperatures can obviously be cooler in the Alps as well. Rainfall averages about 2 to 3 inches in June across the country.

Verdict: Not at all like Houston.

Curaçao

A lot has been made about the kits Curaçao might have worn had they been the “away” team at a match in their first ever World Cup, though unfortunately it seems like that will only happen if they can miraculously make the knockout round.

What about their weather? Well, first of all, where is Curaçao? It’s considered a “constituent island country” that is part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. It is in the far southern Caribbean, just off the coast of Venezuela and east of Aruba. Thus, it has quite the tropical climate, even more so than Houston. Average highs in June are around 81 to 82 degrees and average lows are 79 to 80 degrees. There’s not exactly a whole lot of variability to the weather there during the course of the year, being less than 1,000 miles from the Equator. June rainfall averages around 2 inches.

Curaçao is also far enough south to generally avoid most tropical storms and hurricane. Over the last 175 years, there has only been one direct hit by a tropical storm (Cesar in 1996) and the closest hurricane to pass near the island occurred in October 1892, when a presumed category 2 storm passed just south of the island.

Verdict: Not severely dissimilar from Houston but with much less variability than we have.

Portugal

On the west coast of Europe, Portugal has a generally pleasant Mediterranean climate. It is one of the warmest countries in Europe overall. In June in Lisbon, average highs are near 80 degrees, with average lows in the 60s. Farther north, it cools off some. If you were looking for a comparable U.S. city to Lisbon, it might be Los Angeles (77/61 this time of year on average). If you wanted a comparable U.S. city to Porto in June, it might be Portland. OR (74/54 this time of year on average).

June	Average High	Average Low	Record High	Record Low
Lisbon	79°	62°	99°	52°
Porto	73°	57°	99°	45°

Portugal’s summer, like in the American West is their dry season. June only averages just shy of an inch of rain. In other words, summer in Portugal, while periodically hot, is generally delightful.

Verdict: Much drier and more comfortable than Houston.

Democratic Republic of the Congo

The DRC is the largest country in sub-Saharan Africa. Basically, it sits almost squarely in the middle of the continent, almost bisecting the Equator, with roughly 1/3 of the country in the Northern Hemisphere and 2/3 in the Southern Hemisphere. Much of the DRC is flat or with gently rolling terrain, but there is a major mountain range called the Rwenzori Mountains on the eastern border of the DRC with Uganda. The highest peak there, shared by both the DRC and Uganda is called Margherita Peak that stands 16,762 feet in elevation. One of the more dominant geographic features in the DRC is the Congo River, which carries the second highest volume of water of any river in the world (the Amazon River is #1).

Anyway, with that being said, the DRC has a fairly complex climate given that it straddles the Equator! The southern part of the country has a wet season in their summer/our winter. And the opposite holds true in the northern third of the country. You can clearly see that below, where Kisangani (in the north) averages over 4 inches of rain in June, while Lubumbashi in the south averages literally no rain at all in June.

June	Average High	Average Low	Average Rainfall
Kisangani (north)	86°	70°	4.50″
Lubumbashi (south)	77°	46°	0.00″

Verdict: Way too complicated to be similar to Houston, but Kisangani isn’t terribly far off.

Netherlands

Given its proximity to Germany in Europe, one would assume the Netherlands has a fairly similar climate, and you’d be right to an extent. Amsterdam is only about 200 miles west of Hamburg.

June	Average High	Average Low	Record High	Record Low
Amsterdam	71°	55°	82°	40°

But the country’s proximity to the North Sea does a heck of a job moderating the temperature. There’s a significant discrepancy between the record values in Amsterdam when compared to Hamburg, where the records are primarily in the 80s, with a couple 90s in June. Hamburg has far more records in the 90s. So they tend to miss out on the worst of the heat in the Netherlands, but they can still get hot. The all-time record high in Germany was 106° in Duisburg in July 2019. In the Netherlands, the record is merely a degree cooler (105°) also in July 2019.

Houston is very similar to the Netherlands in one area: Flooding. While much of the flooding the Dutch face comes from the sea and from rivers, they are considered the world leaders in flood control. And a highly engaged relationship has grown between Houston and Amsterdam.

Verdict: Similar challenges to Houston but not similar weather.

Sweden

Our farthest north country, the Swedes enjoy a wide diversity of latitude, stretching about 1,000 miles from top to bottom. Stockholm, the capital and largest city lies on the eastern side of the country, on the Baltic Sea. The largest cities are in the south, including Stockholm, Malmo (across the bridge from Copenhagen) and Gothenburg.

June	Average High	Average Low	Average Rainfall
Stockholm	69°	50°	2.40″
Gothenburg	65°	49°	1.75″

Highs generally average in the 60s and 70s throughout June with lows in the 40s and 50s. It has gotten as hot as 100 degrees in Målilla in the interior south way back in June of 1947.

Verdict: Much too temperate to even be comparable to Houston.

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan was on my radar recently because I noticed that Foreign Grill over in the POST Houston, serves authentic Uzbek food. I will have to try that out. Uzbekistan is a landlocked country in western Asia. It is bordered by several other Stan countries. Of the seven total Stan nations, the only one that does not border Uzbekistan is Pakistan.

Being landlocked likely means an interesting, probably somewhat arid climate, right? Right. Tashkent, the largest city and capital of the country averages 17 and a half inches of rain. Per year. And much of the rest of the country is drier than that. Put it this way, there are places in Uzbekistan that see as much rain in a year as we see in an hour from our heaviest downpours. About 80 percent of Uzbekistan is desert. The summer is their drier season, and June typically only sees about a half-inch of rainfall in the capital.

June	Average High	Average Low	Record High	Record Low
Tashkent	92°	65°	109°	39°

Verdict: Suffice to say, Houston is not 80 percent desert. The Uzbeks will get a dose of true humidity here.

Cabo Verde

Cabo Verde and Cape Verde are basically interchangeable. For many years, we called it Cape Verde, but the country officially changed names to the Republic of Cabo Verde back in 2013. For most of us in Houston that recognize this nation, it’s because of hurricanes. Why? Because every disturbance that comes off the coast of Africa passes near the Cabo Verde Islands. In fact, August and September are often referred to as “Cape Verde” or “Cabo Verde season.” While Curaçao has seen less than 30 storms pass within 70 miles, Cabo Verde has seen over 65 of them that we know since the 1850s. Only 3, however were hurricanes at that point: Fred in 2015, Debbie in 1961 (which became a hurricane only after passing through), and an unnamed storm in 1892.

A lot is made of storms that form near Cabo Verde, but in reality of those 66 storms, only 9 have impacted the U.S., and only one made it to the Gulf (an unnamed 1947 storm that hammered Fort Lauderdale and flooded New Orleans).

Weather-wise, one might assume that Cabo Verde is frequently impacted by tropical waves emerging off the African west coast. However it’s actually a very arid country. In fact, much of Cabo Verde sees maybe 2 to 6 inches of rain annually. However, because it is mountainous, orographically induced precipitation can yield closer to 40 inches of rain at higher elevations. The bulk of the precipitation does come from tropical waves, and August, September, and less so October are the only wet months of the year.

June	Average High	Average Low	Record High	Record Low
Cabo Verde	81°	71°	93°	59°

Because it’s surrounded by water, it’s a bit cooler than the coast of mainland Africa but with warmer ocean temperatures.

Verdict: Cooler, drier, and less hurricane-prone (ironically) than Houston. No dice.

Saudi Arabia

We saved the hottest for last. Saudi Arabia, of course, is located in the very arid Middle East. While the vast majority of the country is just outright desert, the southwest (south of Jeddah and Mecca) does have higher mountains. It’s actually an escarpment that marks the eastern edge of the Great Rift. Most of the mountains north of Jeddah and Mecca are about 6,500 feet high or less. South of there, some of the peaks can get as high as 9,800 feet. The Soudah Peaks average about 79 degrees for highs in June and 51 for lows, far different than most of the rest of the country.

June	Average High	Average Low	Record High	Record Low
Jeddah	109°	82°	118°	68″
Riyadh	109°	83°	117°	70°
Dammam	111°	82°	123°	70°

We often hear about the massive humidity levels of the Persian Gulf, but that’s only on Saudi Arabia’s east coast. Dammam is the third largest city in the Kingdom and is right across from Bahrain. The average dewpoints in summer in Jeddah and Riyadh are in the 30s. The average summer dewpoints in Dammam are in the 60s and 70s. A 111° day with a dewpoint in the mid-60s can feel more like 115 to 120 degrees. A 111° day with a dewpoint in the 30s feels more like 105°, yes, cooler than the actual temperature.

Verdict: Houston is not a desert, nor is it as hot as some coastal cities along the Persian Gulf.

Final verdict

For the most similar countries, we can safely eliminate Saudi Arabia, Cabo Verde, Uzbekistan, Sweden, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Germany. That leaves us with Curaçao and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. By virtue of a slightly more variable climate and higher rainfall in June than Curaçao, I am declaring the northern DRC our champion. Feel free to tell me I am wrong in the comments.

As for who is most dissimilar? Sweden and Saudi Arabia for opposite reasons may be the champions. I would crown Uzbekistan a runner up.

Hopefully you enjoyed this and also learned a thing or two about different climates around the world!

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the onset of truly summer-like humidity and the expectation of three more warm and mostly sunny days. Rain chances return Sunday, and we expect widespread showers on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

Solidly summer-like humidity

Dewpoints across the Houston region have reached the mid-70s of late, and this is pretty much our typical level during summer in Houston. If you wonder why it feels so muggy outside, it is because of this. We basically reach a point during the year when dewpoints never fall below this level, day or night. We’ve not had the full summertime-in-Houston experience yet, with blistering hot temperatures such as highs reaching the upper 90s. And fortunately that does not appear to be in the cards for at least another week or two. But deep summer humidity is here, and likely will not relent until September.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

I’ve lumped the next three days together because there really won’t be much sensible change in our weather from day to day as high pressure reigns. We can expect to see high temperatures ranging from the upper 80s near the coast to the lower 90s for inland areas. Skies should be mostly sunny during the daytime with afternoon winds gusting up to 20 mph. Nights will remain warm and sultry, with lows only briefly dipping below 80 degrees. Each day will have a 10 to 20 percent chance of a brief, passing shower but for most of us our days will remain rain-free.

Sunday

This will be a bit of a transition day. I still expect highs in the low 90s for most of Houston, but as high pressure retreats southward we could see some increasing rain chances during the afternoon or evening hours. I don’t expect any kind of a washout, but this could be a nuisance if you have outdoor plans later on Sunday, including after the opening World Cup game in Houston that afternoon.

Next week

The combination of high atmospheric moisture levels and an approaching front (don’t get your hopes up regarding significantly cooler or drier air) will increase rain chances beginning Sunday evening through next Tuesday or so. In terms of accumulation I expect much of the region to see something like 2 to 4 inches of rain during this period, and the rain-cooled air could bring down afternoon temperatures into the mid- to upper-80s. We’re going to be monitoring things for flooding potential, but as of now I think conditions will be mostly manageable. By Wednesday, and the rest of next week, we likely will be back into a pattern of highs around 90 degrees and perhaps a 30 percent chance of afternoon showers.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the looming El Niño, and what it means for Houston if it becomes a “super” El Niño this winter. We also discuss our sunny days heading into the weekend, and the potential for rain on Sunday and next week.

Here comes El Niño

It is not quite here yet, but in the coming weeks (perhaps even days) we are likely to see temperatures in the equatorial Pacific flip over to El Niño conditions, which is defined by average temperatures in a certain area of the Pacific reaching 0.5 degrees C above usual conditions. (Conversely, La Niña occurs when temperatures in this region fall 0.5 degrees below normal). We experience a handful of El Niños a decade, so it’s not a huge deal. But there has been a lot of buzz about this particular El Niño because it is expected to become unusually strong (as defined by 2.0 degrees C or higher above normal). Here’s a look at the latest spread in the model data, released this week:

Now, what to make of this? If the bottom legend is confusing, the letters simply represent three months, so when El Niño is forecast to peak it says “OND,” which means October, November, and December of this year. So about four or five months from now. I believe there will be three major impacts for the greater Houston region from El Niño over the coming year, so let’s discuss them.

First up is a beneficial one. By August and September of this year we are likely to see a rapidly strengthening El Niño. You may remember in our Atlantic hurricane season outlook published last week, we spoke about El Niño’s likely increase of wind shear in the Atlantic, which should help reduce the overall number of named storms this year. So by and large, that’s beneficial.

Secondly, depending on when El Niño occurs, it has widely variable impacts on precipitation around the world. For the southern United States, including Texas, the impacts are most pronounced during the winter and early spring months. During this time frame El Niño increases the likelihood of precipitation.

So again, for Texas, this is probably beneficial. We typically don’t get flooding conditions in the winter months, so additional rainfall (or snow?!?) from El Niño probably won’t be a bad thing. And we’re not talking huge changes here. It might be that Houston receives 4.5 inches of rain next February instead of 3.5, or something like that.

As you can see from the initial chart above, El Niño may start to wane next spring, and if history is any guide it probably will start to peter out heading into next summer. However, we have often seen something of a temperature ‘hangover’ following strong El Niños. I am speculating a little bit here, but my guess is that as a result we see a spike in global temperatures that lingers into next summer, and we could see some record-breaking heat in Texas at that time. But that’s a long way off. I can’t even tell you whether it’s going to rain this coming Sunday for certain. Speaking of which, let’s get to the forecast.

Wednesday

With high pressure more or less in place for the next several days Houston will remain in a mostly sunny, steamy pattern. For us that means temperatures generally in the low 90s, with slightly hotter conditions possible inland, and slightly cooler daytime conditions near the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny this afternoon, with just a very slight (10 or 20 percent) chance of a brief shower or downpour. Low temperatures may briefly fall below 80 degrees in Houston, but the reprieve won’t last long. Winds will generally be from the south at about 10 mph, but may gust up to about 20 mph during the afternoon hours.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

The rest of the week is likely to see similar conditions, so basically it will feel pretty much like typical June weather out there. Get your sunshine on, Houston.

Sunday

At some point this weekend the high pressure influencing our weather will shift further to the south, opening up our region to the potential for more widespread showers and possibly some thunderstorms. Now I still expect mostly sunny skies on Sunday, but our chances for precipitation will be on the increase. At this point I expect about a 50 percent chance, give or take, however it is possible this number shifts higher (or lower). I don’t expect anything too crazy in terms of accumulations, but given that Houston hosts a World Cup game on Sunday afternoon, we’ll continue to watch for the likelihood of rain before, during, and after the game given all of the festivities around town.

Next week

For much of next week we likely will see partly to mostly cloudy days, with an increased chance of rain for several days. A weak front will move into Texas, but it probably (although not certainly) will die before making its way into Houston. Regardless, after this week’s sunshine a somewhat rainier pattern returns to help keep everything green.

In brief: In today’s post we explain why June in Houston is about to turn sunnier and a bit hotter, and look ahead to conditions this weekend. Also, did you know there was a fairly large earthquake in the Gulf on Monday?

June so far

This month, to date, has seen somewhat cooler than normal weather, especially during the day. More than half of the days have not see high temperatures rise above the mid-80s in the city, and every June day so far has recorded at least a trace of rain in most parts of the area. This has kept conditions feeling slightly spring-like rather that more summer-like.

But beginning today, and probably well into the weekend, we are going to see more typical June-like weather with more daytime sunshine and somewhat hotter temperatures. Each day going forward, away from the coast, is likely to see highs ranging from 90 degrees to the lower 90s, with a smattering of afternoon showers driven by the sea breeze. In short, June weather is going to be doing what June weather does in Houston.

Tuesday

Although atmospheric moisture levels remain high, increasing high pressure will influence our weather in the days to come. It won’t entirely clamp down on rain chances, but it should diminish coverage to fairly isolated to scattered showers this afternoon along the sea breeze. Overall rain chances are likely about 20 percent. Highs will reach about 90 degrees this afternoon for most of Houston, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be fairly light from the south before increasing a little this afternoon. Skies should be clear tonight, but lows likely will only briefly reach down into the upper 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Not a whole lot changes for the rest of the work week. Highs may tick up a degree or two, but inland areas should still be in the vicinity of the low 90s, with plenty of humidity and sunshine. We will continue to see a low-end chance of rain, primarily during the afternoon hours, driven by the sea breeze. Nights will remain warm and muggy.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend, at least to start, is likely to see a continuation of this warm pattern, with scattered to isolated showers during the afternoon. However most of our model guidance indicates that high pressure may back off somewhat by next Sunday or Monday. For now I expect mostly sunny conditions on Sunday with scattered rain showers, but that could change to slightly more rain coverage depending on the timing of high pressure easing away. Temperatures will continue to be warm and humid, regardless.

Next week

At this vantage point, at least, the first half of next week appears likely to bring better rain chances. Whether this is 40 percent each day or 70 percent is something that we’ll have to iron out as we get closer. It’s June so you can expect continued muggy weather regardless.

Eye on the Gulf

Hah, I bet you thought I was going to talk about the tropics here, didn’t you? Well, you would be wrong. Things look pretty quiet over the next 10 days in the Atlantic, with only the very slight possibility of some minor mischief in the Bay of Campeche. What I actually wanted to mention is that there was an earthquake in the Gulf on Monday. At M6.1 it was fairly strong, and by some measures it may be the strongest earthquake ever recorded in the Gulf. It occurred off the northwest tip of Cuba, and was felt as far away as in Florida. I don’t think it’s a harbinger of anything ominous, but the Earthquake Insights newsletter has some interesting speculation about its cause.