In brief: Houston faces two days of record-setting heat before a nice front arrives on Tuesday night to usher drier and cooler air into the region for the rest of the week. Rain chances, unfortunately, continue to look fairly low. Also, if you have a clear view of the Western sky, we encourage you to look for a new comet near the horizon.

Houston likely to set record high

The region’s high temperature on Sunday was 94 degrees, which is one degree short of the city’s record high for October 13. Today we’re likely to be even a bit warmer, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s for much of the metro area. And the record high for today, set in 2015, is just 92 degrees. So we’re almost certain to set a record today. Tomorrow we are also likely to set a record, beating the mark of 92 degrees set in 2019. A cold front finally arrives on Tuesday night to bring us some much-needed relief.

Don’t miss a comet in the night sky

If you have a clear view of the western horizon, preferably with few lights (i.e. not looking directly toward downtown Houston), you should try and see a comet with an unwieldy name, C/2023 A3 Tsuchinshan-ATLAS, this week. To find it, look toward the western horizon within 45 minutes of sunset at twilight. A pair of binoculars should only enhance the view, so if you have some, bring them along. The comet will fade in the next two weeks, so right now is the best time to try and see it.

Monday and Tuesday

Heat continues for two more days. Both Monday and Tuesday will be sunny, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s for most locations away from the coast. This is brutal, August-like heat that is very much not normal for October (hence the record-setting temperatures). At least the dewpoints will be a little lower, so it won’t be incredibly sultry heat. Winds will be light, from the north and northwest, at 5 to 10 mph. Monday night will be warm, with lows in the upper 60s.

Wednesday

Drier air starts to move into the area by around midnight, and dewpoints will fall into the upper 30s area wide by Wednesday morning. It will feel noticeably drier, and daytime temperatures on Wednesday may be only on the 70s. Winds will be from the northeast, gusting up to 20 mph. Skies will remain sunny, as this is a dry front. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the 50s area-wide, except for the immediate coast.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of mostly sunny days, with high temperatures in the upper-70s to lower-80s, with nighttime temperatures in the upper-50s to lower 60s. So, pretty pleasant.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

We may start to see some clouds this weekend as a southerly flow returns. Whether that brings any meaningful rain chances is something we’ll have to wait and see, but overall the odds do not look great. Highs are likely to be in the mid-80s for much of the region, with lows in the 60s. There’s probably another front in the cards some time next week, but the details are hazy.

In brief: Houston will continue to see plenty of sunshine for the foreseeable future, with temperatures continuing on an upward trend through the holiday weekend. Next Monday will be downright hot before a front arrives to provide some relief. We also take a look at increasing drought conditions in the metro area and offer a slight hope for some relief.

Drought returns

About one year ago, after the torrid summer of 2023, 100 percent of the Houston metro area was in at least a moderate drought, and for more than 90 percent of the region we were in a severe drought, according to data from the US Drought Monitor. Those conditions were wiped away after a wetter fall and winter, leaving the region completely drought-free for much of this year. Now that’s starting to change.

After dry conditions over the last couple of months, we’re starting to see drought conditions creep back into the area. About 70 percent of Liberty County, just to the east of Harris County, has now fallen into a moderate drought, and we’re seeing similar conditions to the northwest of Houston in Brazos County. Unfortunately, there won’t be much relief over the next several days. However there is a decent signal for rainfall about seven or eight days from now. We’ll see.

Friday

Skies today will be, you guessed it, completely sunny. We’ll see high temperatures of around 90 degrees for most of the metro area, with light northeast winds. Skies will be clear tonight—but alas, we think the northern lights that were visible in parts of the Houston region on Thursday night will be gone. Lows will fall into the mid-60s for most locations, with warmer conditions along the coast.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

It will be a hot and sunny holiday weekend as high pressure builds over the area. Look for highs in the lower 90s on Saturday and Sunday, pushing up into the mid-90s by Monday. Rain chances are effectively zero. The air will be a bit muggier, but it won’t be full on Houston humid. Winds will generally be light. Lows will drop to around 70 degrees.

Next week

As we’ve been discussing, some kind of front will arrive by around Tuesday, and thereafter we should see cooler days (probably in the lower 80s at least) and nights in the 50s or lower 60s. There’s likely no precipitation with the front, but rain chances do appear to be elevated beginning Friday and running into next weekend. Whether that means daily rain chances of 30 percent or 60 percent I cannot say. But since we’ve been so dry, it represents our best rain chances in quite some time.

Have a wonderful holiday weekend, everyone. We’ll see you on Monday.

In brief: Sunshine, and more sunshine is in the forecast for Houston with slowly rising temperatures expected through next Monday. By then we’ll be in at least the low-90s before the next cool front pushes through. There is some rain in the forecast, but alas it remains more than a week away.

Thursday and Friday

We’ll see a pair of sunny days with high temperatures around 90 degrees for much of the metro area. Winds will be generally light, from the northeast and east. Dewpoints will remain on the lower side, such that the air remains fairly dry on both days, so quite pleasant despite the warmer temperatures. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-60s for much of Houston, with warmer conditions right along the coast and slightly cooler ones for inland areas.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday

As the onshore flow gets rolling, temperatures and humidity levels will go up slightly for the weekend, which includes Columbus Day on Monday. Highs will be around 90 degrees, or a bit higher on Saturday, rising into at least the lower 90s by Monday. A few areas may even see highs in the mid-90s. Overnight lows will rise into the upper 60s for most. We’ll continue to see almost fully sunny skies, with rising humidity levels. So yeah, late summer comes roaring back for a brief appearance.

The rest of next week

A nice front is in the cards for some time on Tuesday, and this should cool our weather down for the rest of next week. I think we’ll probably see highs around 80 degrees, and lows in the 50s for much of the metro area, although the precise details are yet to be determined. There’s no rain in the cards for the front, but forecast models indicate that could finally change by Friday or Saturday of next week, as some clouds return and moisture levels in the atmosphere increase.

Tropics

Hurricane Milton struck, and traversed the state of Florida on Wednesday night. The storm’s center passed just far enough south of Tampa Bay to prevent a catastrophic surge there, but the impacts to the Sunshine state will nonetheless be enormous. This is the third hurricane to strike Florida this summer. Beyond Milton there are no threats to land, thankfully.