In brief: The word for today is dreary, as we are going to see a wet and cold day in Houston. Sunshine briefly returns on Tuesday before a rainy end to the work week. Some areas, all told, may pick up 4 or more inches of rain through Friday. Also, our annual fundraiser ends later today!

Fundraiser ends today

Our annual fundraiser ends tonight. Believe me, it is not comfortable for Matt and I to ask for money like this, but your support is essential to maintaining and growing what we’re doing here at Space City Weather. And this year so many wonderful readers have stepped up to chip in with donations or purchases—thousands of you. Personally I am grateful for every one, and it makes the effort we put in every single day worthwhile. So thank you, Houston, for your generosity. We go onward, as ever, into the storm!

Flipping the switch on rain

In Sunday’s post I noted that our overall weather pattern had seemingly flipped the script, over night, from an exceedingly dry one to widespread rainfall. Indeed it is possible that, starting with yesterday’s rains, our region will receive more total rainfall this week than it did during the previous 90 days. We have another round of widespread showers today, and then again from Wednesday afternoon through Friday. This should nicely dent our burgeoning drought. And if you’re already tired of the gray and rainy weather, it does appear that by the coming weekend we’ll see a stretch of sunnier weather.

Monday

I have but one regret this morning, and that is that today is December 1. Every year, in November, I look forward to using the phrase “cold November rain.” However, last month it was never simultaneously cold and rainy. Today definitely fits the bill, except for the month. Anyway, today we’re going to see cold rain, especially for Harris County and points south.

Pre-sunrise we are already seeing light to moderate showers across much of the region, with additional showers building to the southwest as a disturbance propagates into the area. One question you may ask is, where is the moisture coming from if winds at the surface are cold and dry from the north? Well, not too far above the surface the flow is more southerly, allowing for an onshore flow overrunning the air at the surface. Thus there is plentiful moisture at about one-half mile and above, where clouds are forming. Although rain totals will vary widely today, you can probably expect somewhere between 0.5 and 2.5 inches. The showers should finally clear to the northeast by late this afternoon or evening.

The other major story of the day is going to be the cold air. Some parts of Houston may not get out of the upper 40s today. Our low temperatures tonight will be dependent upon whether we see clearing skies by the wee hours of Tuesday. Regardless, fairly gusty winds from the north will provide less than ideal cooling conditions. As a result I think even the inland portions of our region will escape a freeze, but for some locations in northern Montgomery County it may be close.

Tuesday

If you’re a sunshine person, today’s the day. Expect mostly sunny skies and no rain on Tuesday. Even so an ongoing, chilly flow from the north will keep highs confined to the mid-50s. Skies turn partly cloudy on Tuesday night, which should see lows near where they were Monday night, but perhaps a degree or two warmer. So another quite cold night.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Our next weather system arrives later on Wednesday, and this will set the stage for another rainy period from Wednesday evening through Friday morning. Highs on Wednesday may reach the upper 60s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. The day should be mostly rain free, at least until the afternoon or evening. However, after this we should see plenty of rain showers from Wednesday night through Friday morning. It won’t be wall to wall storms, but we can expect accumulations of perhaps 1 to 3 inches area wide, with greater totals near the coast. I don’t think this will be enough to cause flooding conditions. We’ll watch things closely, however. A colder air mass will slowly sag into the region such that, by Friday, highs may only reach 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The upside of the rain this week is that, by the weekend, conditions should be a fair bit nicer. For now I expect partly to mostly sunny skies on Saturday and Sunday, with highs perhaps in the upper 60s to lower 70s. So if you have outdoor plans this weekend things should be pretty nice! I expect the mostly sunny skies and low rain chances to persist at least into the middle of next week.

In brief: We’re posting on Sunday because of the significant (and mostly welcome) overnight rains, which have ushered in a much colder air mass. This marks a big change from the fall weather which has come before. In short, winter has come to Houston a day early.

End of fall pattern change

Pretty much everyone reading this probably realizes that Houston has had a warm and dry fall. Our daily maximum temperatures have regularly flirted with record highs, and due to a paucity of rain the region has slipped into a moderate-to-severe drought after remaining drought free during the summer months.

For the months of September, October, and November our high temperatures have run, on average, 4 to 6 degrees above normal in the Houston region, and indeed across much of Texas. Here’s what that looks like graphically:

The story is much the same for precipitation this fall. Most of the eastern part of Texas has received just 25 to 50 percent of normal levels of rainfall. Where I live the grass has turned crispy and brown, and before Saturday night I had not seen any precipitation in nearly five weeks. This has been the driest fall I can recall, having lived here for nearly three decades.

All of this makes Saturday night’s front so significant. Without too much in the way of severe weather it brought a solid 2 to 4 inches of rainfall to most of the metro area (Katy and western areas, excepted). This is the first time in many weeks that a storm system has over-performed model expectations for precipitation. All of this points to a pattern change, and indeed that is what the near-term forecast holds.

The first half of this week is going to be really cold by early December standards, and we are going to see ongoing rain chances for the remainder of the week.

Sunday

As of shortly after sunrise, temperatures for much of Houston are in the mid-50s, and they’re likely to only fall from here. Some additional very light showers are possible today, but for the most part I expect skies to just be gray. Winds will be gusty, from the north up to 25 mph. So very chilly out. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s for most of the metro area.

Monday

Rains are back on the menu for Monday. Around day break we should see a system move in from the southwest. Rain chances and accumulations will likely be highest for coastal counties, to the south and east of Highway 59/Interstate 69. I think 1-2 inches will be the upper limit for coastal areas, with inland locations seeing significantly less. In terms of temperatures, it’s going to be cold. I expect highs to peak in the low to mid-50s. Expect another chilly night in the 40s in Houston as rains end.

Tuesday

This will be a sunny and cold day, with highs in the upper 50s. With partly clear skies we should see ideal cooling on Tuesday night, with temperatures in the 30s north of Houston. I think the greater Houston region escapes a freeze.

The rest of the week

Highs will warm into the 60s on Wednesday with some clouds. Another storm system arrives later in the week, likely on Thursday, bringing elevated rain chances to end the work week. Chillier temperatures could return by Friday or Saturday morning, with lows in the 40s.

Fundraiser

Our annual fundraiser ends Monday night. We’ll not mention it again for another year after that! But until then there is still time to support our efforts by purchasing merchandise or making a donation. A very warm thank you to everyone who has contributed so far.

In brief: Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to Houston on Saturday with a low-end (marginal, 1/5) severe weather risk. Any severe weather will be isolated. Much colder weather will follow Sunday with highs in the 50s. Periods of rain and temperatures in the 40s (!) on Monday. Nicer weather after Monday.

I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving, and a special thank you to those who were working during the holiday. We can speak graciously of our colleagues at the National Weather Service office or those on TV. But we know many others were needed at work too. So, thank you.

Fundraiser

Much like your fridge with leftovers, I imagine your inbox is stuffed with amazing deals from #brands today. Just don’t forget local and small businesses! And if you want some Houston-centric merchandise for yourself or family this holiday season, we are in the final days of our annual fundraiser now. The finish line hits Monday. Then we don’t get to bug you again until next November. If you feel compelled, we greatly appreciate your support. Thank you!

Today

Quiet weather is with us for one more day. Look for clouds to perhaps increase through the afternoon or evening hours as we begin to transition back to a warmer air mass ahead of tomorrow’s next front and storm system.

Saturday

Alright, the headline for Saturday is that the entire area is under a marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms.

Back on Monday, we were in a slight risk (2/5), so the setup this time around is a tinge less impressive. Just want to benchmark this. That said, here’s how it should play out.

Saturday morning: If you have plans in the morning hours tomorrow, a few showers, drizzle, or sprinkles are possible but nothing worse than that. The AM looks fine.

Saturday afternoon: Showers will become more scattered, especially north and west of Downtown Houston, with an isolated strong to severe storm possible after 2-3 PM or so. All modes of severe weather (strong winds, hail, isolated tornadoes) are in play Saturday but none looks especially likely. In most cases, storms will be benign with just thunder, lightning, and heavy downpours. But one or two could push severe levels.

Saturday evening: Isolated strong to severe storms will continue to be possible north and west of Houston but a squall line of widespread moderate thunderstorms should develop and track south and east after 8 to 10 PM or so, reaching the coast by about 2 to 3 AM. Within this line of storms could be some gusty winds to 40 mph or so. I think this is especially true around Galveston Bay or on the Island. But risk of tornadoes or hail should back off.

After 3 AM, the line of storms should push offshore and conditions will improve. Gusty north winds will follow, with gusts at times of 30 to 35 mph or even a little stronger on the coast.

Sunday

We’ll close the weekend on a bit of a chilly, raw note. Look for clouds to dominate, though I’ll hold out hope for at least a little sunshine in a few spots. Maybe. Temperatures will be steady in the low-50s. If we see some sun, we could pop into the mid-50s.

Monday

Our next storm system glides in Sunday night, delivering a wintry-type day Monday. Expect chilly temperatures, mostly in the 40s Monday. Some places may be lucky to get above 45 degrees. Additionally, rain. Look for periods of rain, showers, and probably even a couple rumbles of thunder around the area.

Rain totals are a little less confident of a forecast. These types of setups tend to favor the coastal areas, where perhaps 1 inch or more of rain is possible. However, some model guidance does include higher totals inland as well. For now, I would expect a quarter to half-inch on average with pockets of the area likely seeing 1 inch or more.

After Monday

Quieter weather follows Monday, with our next chance of rain perhaps Thursday or Friday. Tuesday and Wednesday morning will see lows in the 30s and low-40s, so it’ll be chilly. Highs will be in the 50s on Wednesday and back into the 60s on Thursday and Friday.

In brief: In today’s post we look ahead to resplendent weather for the holiday, to be followed by brief warm-up this weekend before widespread showers and couple of shots of colder air. Parts of Houston may hit the 30s later next week.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Good morning, everyone. Just a relatively short post this morning due to the holiday—the Berger household has been up since 5:30 am working on smoking turkeys—but I wanted to share the latest on a fairly dynamic forecast. Fortunately we’re not looking at any serious storms, but there is a healthy chance of rain this weekend, and then conditions turn quite a bit colder next weekend. So with this post we are going to hit the high notes.

Thanksgiving Day

As we’ve been saying for awhile now, weather today will be ideal for the holiday. This morning’s low temperature of 48 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport was bang-on for the normal temperature for this time of year and today’s highs in the mid- to upper-60s will be typical for this time in November (normal high, 69 degrees). When you add in sunny skies, low humidity, and light winds, we have just exceptionally fine weather for a holiday. Lows tonight will probably be a couple of degrees cooler than Wednesday night. Think low-40s north of Houston, and upper 40s in Houston and further south.

Friday

This will be a transition day, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s. Winds will shift to come from the east-southeast, gusting up to 20 mph, or perhaps a bit higher. Lows Friday night will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see rising temperatures, into the mid-70s, along with much more humid air. I think Saturday morning will be mostly rain-free, with only some light showers as an exception. However, later in the day rain chances increase with the advance of a cold front. The best chances will occur later on Saturday evening and overnight when the front pushes through. I’m hesitant to predict accumulations, but at this time I expect most of the area to pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain. There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall, but given the overall dryness of our soils I’m not too concerned about flooding.

Sunday

This will be a chilly day, with leaden skies. Highs probably will not rise out of the upper 50s. Some rain chances will linger, but for the most part I just expect gray skies. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop into the 40s.

Next week

Monday should bring another shot of rainfall as what looks to be a reinforcing front moves in. As a result the first day of December looks to be a dreary affair, with highs perhaps topping out in the low 50s. We’ll see our lowest temperatures next week, possibly in the 30s for parts of Houston, on Tuesday, Wednesday, and/or Thursday mornings. At this point most of our available evidence points toward temperatures remaining above freezing in the metro area, but we’re going to keep an eye on things.

Have a great holiday, everyone!

Fundraiser

We have come to the final days of our annual fundraiser, but the curtain has not dropped yet. There is still time to support our efforts for the coming year, and you can do so by purchasing merchandise or making a donation here. Thank you so very, very much.