Posted by Eric Berger at 6:56 AM
Good morning. It is not pleasant outside, with winds gusting to 30 mph pretty much across the entire region, and temperatures generally in the 30s. The combined result of this is wind chill temperatures in the 20s for pretty much everyone this morning. A freeze is expected tonight for all but the immediate coastal areas.
Wind chill temperatures are brisk this morning. (National Weather Service)
Some very light precipitation remains across the western part of the region, but this should continue to wane through sunrise this morning. However, this may produce a little bit of sleet that will not stick to the ground. Otherwise, we should see clearing skies throughout the morning and into the afternoon. Highs will only nudge up into the low 40s for most. Strong, northerly winds will blow throughout the day, although they should gradually wane this afternoon before falling off to 10mph or below after sunset—except for the immediate coast where they will blow a bit longer. Clear skies and dying winds will allow for ideal cooling Tuesday night, and nearly all of the area except for the coast will probably see a freeze. Lows may reach the mid-20s for Conroe and points north.
Forecast lows for Wednesday morning. (Weather Bell)
Partly sunny skies, with a high of around 50 degrees. As northerly winds finally die, we’ll begin to see some cloud development later in the day, and the possible return of some light showers during the afternoon or evening. Lows Wednesday night should drop into the 40s as rain chances increase to about 50 percent.
Posted by Eric Berger at 6:52 AM
A strong Arctic front will reach Houston later today, likely during the late afternoon hours, and usher in a freeze for much of the metro area. Most of Houston has yet to record a freeze this season—the low at Bush Intercontinental Airport so far has been 36 degrees. While this will definitely be earlier than normal for a freeze, the region has seen earlier freezes. The table below shows the average date, and earliest date, for official monitoring stations in the Houston region:
(National Weather Service)
Conditions today will be warm ahead of the front, with central and southern parts of the region likely climbing into the mid- to upper-70s. As the front sweeps through Houston this afternoon—probably between around 3pm and sunset from northwest to southeast—temperatures will immediately drop 10 to 20 degrees, and we’ll just go downward from there.
HRRR model forecast for temperatures at 6pm CT Monday. (Weather Bell)
A fast-moving band of light to moderate showers should accompany the front, and then light rain could persist throughout the evening and into early Tuesday morning. There is a slight chance that, if precipitation lasts into Tuesday morning in outlying areas, some of this light rain could turn into sleet or snow flurries. However, most likely the precipitation will end before the coldest air arrives. In the wake of the front, expect blustery conditions, with winds gusting up to 35mph, and a gale warning in effect for coastal waters.
Posted by Eric Berger at 7:00 AM
Good morning. It appears increasingly likely the Houston region will see its first real Arctic blast early next week, with a reasonable possibility for a freeze in central parts of the city, and possibly upper 20s north and west of Houston. While we are far from locking in temperatures yet, this is something to bear in mind for this weekend if you have plants outside that need to be winterized.
The first of two cold fronts is on the way to Houston, but this will be a bit of an odd duck. The front is going to move through today, likely pushing from the northwest to the coast roughly from noon to around 6pm. Instead of a line of showers and thunderstorms, we are more likely to see kind of a mass of light to moderate rain, which may congeal into heavier rain showers and thunderstorms south and southwest of Houston. Hard to say for sure, to be honest.
This HRRR forecast for wind gusts shows the front reaching the coast at 5pm CT Thursday. (Weather Bell)
Bottom line—if you live north or east of Houston you may not see much rain at all, but if you live in Sugar Land you might get 1 to 2 inches. While we will see winds shift with the front, and some drier air, cooler temperatures are going to lag several hours behind. As a result, highs today should get into the upper 70s, and fall to around 50 by Friday morning.
Some light showers may linger into Friday in the wake of Thursday’s front. Even after they stop, however, clouds will remain, and this will be a cold and gray day. Highs are unlikely to get out of the low 50s. Friday nights lows should drop into the 40s, but how far will depend upon your distance from the coast.
Posted by Eric Berger at 6:54 AM
Good morning. It has only been 2.5 weeks since Houston experienced its last 90-degree day of 2019. But since then we’ve transitioned rapidly from late-summer weather into fall and now we’re teetering on winter-like weather (be sure and check the forecast for next week below). Anyway, I write that to say that I think today may be one of the region’s last 80-degree days for awhile and perhaps even the last such day of this year. Although that is certainly no guarantee.
We’ll see some high clouds today, but for the most part we can probably expect mostly sunny skies throughout today. Given the sunshine, and flow of warm air, we can probably expect high temperatures to nudge up to around 80 degrees today, or a bit warmer for some inland areas. Lows tonight will generally fall into the 60s—how far will depend upon your distance from the coast.
NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast for Thursday and Friday. (Pivotal Weather)
Clouds will build Wednesday night, and Thursday should be a mostly cloudy affair. Highs should generally get into the mid- to upper-70s ahead of the cold front. There is still some question when the front will push into Houston, but I’d guess it will reach northern and western parts of the metro area by late afternoon, and push off the coast by or before midnight—but don’t hold me to that timing. Another question is rainfall. If there’s any agreement in the models it’s that the better chances lie south of Interstate 10, and closer to the coast. I still think most of the region will see between 0.5 and 1.0 inch of rain on Thursday and Thursday night, with the isolated potential for 2.0 inches or more for some areas near the Gulf.