Eric Berger

The forecast for Houston is pretty straightforward: Houston will see a few more very hot days before a weak front arrives on Thursday to increase cloud cover and rain chances, and bring down temperatures a bit. Then, we are likely to see near-normal to below-normal temperatures into at least the middle of next week. Finally, the tropics may be waking up.

Tuesday

Here comes the heat. With high pressure continuing to build over the region we will see highs in the mid- to upper-90s across much of the Houston region today, with inland areas such as College Station and Huntsville likely hitting triple digits. Rain chances are, at best, about 10 percent with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, out of the south or southeast, at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday and Thursday

The heat will peak on these days, with 100-degree temperatures possible across much of the region, except for the immediate coast. Sunny skies will prevail for much of that time, but things will begin to change later on Thursday as a weak front approaches the region. This is not a classical fall cold front, mind you, when there is a distinct wind shift followed by an influx of colder and drier air. We really don’t get such fronts in August, as it’s just too early. Rather, this front will mostly perturb the atmosphere, allowing for rising air and the formation of clouds. This will, in turn, help increase rain chances and start to hold down daily highs. But because the front is unlikely to push into Houston until Thursday afternoon or so, that day is still probably going to bring triple-digit-hot for most of the area. Rain chances start to tick up Thursday afternoon or evening, likely in the form of scattered showers.

Friday

This day will probably have the best chance of rain this week, above 50 percent for the region. The additional cloud cover should hold high temperatures in the low-90s for much of the area.

Saturday and Sunday

The aforementioned front is basically going to move down to the coast on Thursday, get hung up, and eventually dissipate. Nevertheless its remains should continue to help produce partly cloudy skies and decent rain chances on the order of 30 to 50 percent through the weekend. Accumulations across much of the area will vary from 0.25 to 2.0 inches, with the highest accumulations likely to the east of Houston. Highs will likely remain in the low 90s.

Next week

Our weather next week will be guided, to some extent, by tropical moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico. Matt will have more in our weekly tropics update later this morning, but there is potential for a tropical wave currently in the Caribbean Sea to move into the Southern Gulf of Mexico toward the end of this week. There, it could start to develop into a tropical system. This is not something I think we probably need to be directly concerned about, but the system could influence our weather early next week with increased moisture and the potential for more rain showers. The bottom line is that we’re now in the middle of August, and watching the tropics closely. More from Matt, soon.

Good morning. After several days of on-and-off showers due to an infusion of tropical moisture, high pressure will begin to reassert its influence over our weather today, and this will push our temperatures back above normal for August. The heat will peak on Wednesday before a weak front brings some relief in the form of clouds, showers, and slightly lower daytime temperatures. Miraculously, we may then be looking at a week or so of near- or slightly below-normal temperatures for August in Houston. Yes, please.

On a completely unrelated note, I’m participating in the Bay Area “Dancing with the Stars” event on September 10 that will be held at the Doyle Convention Center in Texas City. I am not a dancer by an means, but I’ve been working hard with my partner for the event, Nassau Bay City Secretary Sandra Ham, to fix that. By some miracle, Mariel Blain of Dance Visions has taught us a more than 2-minute tango. In a few weeks we will compete on stage with five other couples to raise money for the Bay Area Alliance for Youth and Families. You can find out more information here, and if you’re so inclined you can support your favorite couple by text, or buying a table.

Monday

Today will bring partly sunny skies to the region, with temperatures generally topping out in the mid-90s for much of the Houston region (far inland areas will be hotter). This is somewhat of a transition day, as high pressure is still building over the area. As a result there may still be a 10 or 15 percent chance of rain, but consider yourself lucky if you see a brief shower. Winds will be light, out of the southwest, at 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday and Wednesday

With high pressure fully in control we’ll see highs jump into the upper 90s to 100 degrees for much of the region. Wednesday looks like the hottest day of the week, when much of the metro area should reach triple digits. Rain chances will be low to nil for the region.

Thursday and Friday

Thursday will probably start out hot again, but the aforementioned weak front should push into the Houston area during the daytime, bringing clouds and an elevated chance of rain through Friday or Friday night. Much of the area will probably see 0.5 to 2 inches of rain during this period, but that is a general guess at this point rather than a high confidence forecast. Thursday will be hotter ahead of the front, but highs on Friday may top out at around 90 degrees. The front will not result in appreciably lower dew points, but it will at least take the sting out of daytime highs.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

High pressure should not reassert itself this weekend, or heading into the weekend. As a result, I think we’re looking at a fairly sustained stretch of weather in the low 90s for this weekend and beyond, with decent 30 to 40 percent daily rain chances. This could be weather like we were supposed to have in June, but did not. Either way, for the historically hottest time of the year, we’ll take anything we can get.

As expected, a line of storms moved through Houston on Wednesday evening, bringing 0.5 to 3 inches of rain across much of the region in addition to damaging winds. In some of the strongest storms, wind gusts reached as high as 50 to 60 mph. The atmosphere remains pretty worked over after these storms, but it should recharge in time for additional rainfall on Friday and Saturday before the region returns to a hotter and sunnier pattern for a few days.

Thursday

Skies will be partly to mostly sunny today, with high temperatures likely climbing into the low- to mid-90s for much of the Houston area. Winds will be light, generally out of the north at about 5 mph. While the atmosphere is moist, it also remains a little bit more stable after Wednesday’s storms. That could start to change this afternoon or evening, however, with the sea breeze perhaps initiating some precipitation. At this point I would peg rain chances at about 50 percent area-wide.

Friday and Saturday

These days should see healthy rain chances as an atmospheric disturbance moves in from the Gulf of Mexico. Showers should start offshore and propagate inland during the morning hours on Friday. With a moist atmosphere in place, these should be partly cloudy and cooler days, with highs generally ranging from 90 to 95 degrees, and light northerly or easterly winds. Rain chances are above 50 percent both days, as storms generally move from east to west. Right now I don’t expect thunderstorms to be as organized or intense as they were on Wednesday evening, but it’s something we’re watching for. Overall the region will probably pick up an additional 0.5 to 2 inches of rain, with coastal regions favored for the higher end of those totals.

Sunday

At some point this weekend, perhaps on Saturday afternoon or perhaps not until Sunday, high pressure will start to have more of an influence on our weather. This will tamp down rain chances and bring back the sunshine. As a result, for Sunday, I expect to see partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s.

Next week

Beyond Sunday, the early part of next week looks fairly hot and mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s for most of the Houston metro area. However, by Thursday or so a front will be approaching the region from the north. And while this front is unlikely to push into Houston, it should help to destabilize the atmosphere, bringing healthy rain chances back to the forecast by Thursday or Friday, and probably knocking highs back into the low 90s.

Good morning. It has been a long, very hot, and mostly dry summer for Houston. For the next three or four days, however, we’re going to see a distinct pattern shift amid a weakness in the high pressure ridge that has dominated conditions since late May. This weakness, combined with a surge of tropical moisture, will bring healthy rain chances from now through Saturday, and should also knock high temperatures back several degrees. It won’t rain all of the time, but it should rain some of the time. Sunny and hotter weather returns early next week.

Wednesday

Skies will be partly sunny today, starting out like most recent days. Highs should climb into the mid-90s for much of the region, with the usual smattering of coastal showers and thunderstorms. The more significant change comes this evening, as what is essentially a dying front moves southward into the region. At some point around sunset, give or take a couple of hours, we should see a broken line of storms moving from north-northeast to south-southwest across the area. It is not entirely clear whether these storms will hit western or eastern parts of the metro area hardest, but expect a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms between 4pm and midnight. The strongest of these storms will produce heavy rainfall, with damaging winds. Low-lying streets may briefly flood in the heaviest storms.

Thursday

Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy on Thursday, helping to limit high temperatures to the low 90s. Atmospheric conditions will continue to be favorable for rainfall, with chances of 60 or 70 percent for much of the area. Again, we expect showers to be hit or miss. Overall chances are probably better closer to the coast, and east of Interstate 45.

Friday and Saturday

This generally cloudier and potentially rainier pattern should persist into the first half of the weekend. Both of these days should see a mix of clouds and sunshine, with highs perhaps reaching 90 degrees, or slightly above. Rain chances both days are 50 percent, or perhaps even higher. All told, much of the region probably will pick up 0.5 to 2 inches of rain through Saturday, although some areas will see more, and alas, others less.

Sunday and beyond

By Sunday we should start to see the influence of high pressure again, as skies become sunnier and rain chances start to slacken. By the middle of next week temperatures should climb to the mid- to upper-90s, and it will be plenty hot. However, the potential for rainfall may return toward the end of next week, providing us some additional relief. We shall see.