Showers begin to abate, with a few sunny days, before rains return

Good morning. Today is something of a transition day, with ample moisture across the area battling against high pressure building into the area. As a result I think we’ll see at least some scattered rain showers today before a few days of mostly sunny and hot weather from Thursday into the weekend. Healthy rain chances return by Sunday.

Wednesday

Some showers have developed over the Matagorda Bay region this morning, and this activity should progress toward the Houston region later this morning and into the early afternoon hours. These showers will definitely be hit or miss, with a few areas seeing some briefly heavy rain and most others no rain at all. Skies will otherwise be mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-90s, and southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will not drop below 80 degrees for much of Houston.

A stationary front northeast of Houston will allow for Gulf Coast rain today. (National Weather Service)

Thursday and Friday

As high pressure exerts a little more influence I think rain chances will fall back to less than 20 percent toward the end of the work week. This, combined, with mostly sunny skies, should lead to a pair of hot and sunny days for the region with light southerly winds. Lows will remain sticky, in the upper 70s to low 80s. As we get closer to July, it’s going to feel a lot like July.

Friday will probably be the warmest day of the coming week. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend should see similar conditions to Thursday and Friday, although there may be a slightly higher chance of an afternoon shower on Saturday. Highs will be in the low to mid-90s with mostly sunny skies, and if you have outdoor activities planned I think you’re probably going to be fine.

Sunday may be a different story, with a few more clouds, and perhaps a 50 percent chance of rain. Right now I don’t think there’s any kind of washout in the cards, but there’s definitely the possibility of passing showers. This should help to limit high temperatures to the low 90s.

Next week

Yet another dying front may approach Houston next week, and this in concert with rising atmospheric moisture levels will lead to better rain chances. It’s really hard to pin down any kind of details at this point, but most of next week will probably see highs of around 90 degrees, with solid rain chances. As for accumulations, it’s too early to do much more than speculate, but we’re probably looking at 1 to 3 inches for much of the region, with higher local amounts. If this happens it will put our soils in a good place heading into July.

Storms rumbling through Houston as a “cool” front arrives

In meteorological terms, a cool front is in fact moving into the region. However, in practical terms, it’s late June. So don’t expect much cool or dry air. Far inland areas may see some dewpoints in the upper 60s, but overall the only sensible effects from this storm will be elevated rain chances. We saw scattered storms on Monday—some of which were pretty intense on the east side—and a slightly more organized line of storms dropped into Houston overnight. These rains should continue to progress toward the coast this morning.

Tuesday

Skies will clear out later this morning for most of the region, with light northeast winds and high temperatures reaching about 90 degrees. All in all, for late June, not bad. Moisture levels will remain higher south of Interstate 10, so we could well see the redevelopment of at least some scattered showers there after noon today. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 70s.

You can find lows in the 50s in the Panhandle this morning. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

The “front,” such as it is, will retreat back north on Wednesday and high pressure will gradually replace it. This will allow for skies to remain partly to mostly sunny, and highs should push back into the low 90s at least. A few showers may develop during the afternoon hours, along the sea breeze.

Thursday and Friday

Full-on summer weather returns, with ample sunshine and highs reaching the mid-90s. Again, the sea breeze may spark a few showers, but most of us will remain dry.

Saturday and Sunday

The high pressure that will make for sunny conditions during the second half of the work week will likely weaken by Saturday, leading to an increase in rain chances. Saturday still will probably be mostly sunny, and with perhaps a 30 percent chance of rain I’d say many outdoor activities should be OK. I’m less confident in Sunday, when shower coverage might increase some, especially during the afternoon hours. Highs will be in the low- to mid-90s, regardless.

By Friday, highs will reach the mid-90s at least for Houston. (Weather Bell)

Next week

Rain chances will likely tick up further on Monday and Tuesday of next week as atmospheric moisture levels are likely to increase, and atmospheric conditions favor rising air. It’s too early to say much about accumulations, but 1 to 2 inches of rain after several hot and sunny days would be not be unwelcome.

Tropics

The Gulf of Mexico is quiet in the wake of Tropical Storm Claudette, but we’re starting to see some signs that the deeper tropics are waking up. (To be clear, there is nothing out there right now that should really concern us at all). Matt will have a full roundup on the tropics in a post early this afternoon.

After the summer solstice days get shorter, but alas, not less hot

The summer solstice arrived late on Sunday night, at 10:32 pm CT. The solstice, of course, is the longest day and the shortest night in the Northern Hemisphere, and results from the 23.4-degree tilt in the Earth’s axis and the planet’s rotation around the Sun. The solstice begins a three-month period known as “astronomical summer.”

In Houston, of course, it generally feels summer-like from June through September. Although our days will now slowly begin to grow shorter, due to our proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and a lag in oceanic warming (and cooling), most of our summer heat comes after the longest day of the year.

The following map, shared by Brian Brettschneider on Twitter, shows the the time of the sunset across the United States and Canada on the summer solstice. This is affected both by the solstice as well as time zones that humans have created around the Earth. The area that sees 24 hours of daylight on the solstice, of course, lies above the Arctic Circle.

Map showing the time on sunset on the summer solstice. (Brian Brettschneider/Twitter)

As for our weather this week, we will experience a couple of more wet and slightly cooler days before high temperatures return into the mid-90s for the second half of this week.

Monday and Tuesday

Our weather over the next couple of days will be driven by a cool front—and we’re using the meteorological definition of a front, because it won’t have too much effect on how things feel out there. This front will act to increase the likelihood of rainfall on Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday morning. I don’t think we’re going to see widespread, heavy rainfall, but some of the showers that develop will be capable of fairly intense rainfall rates. I think much of Houston will see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, with a few bullseyes of 3 or more inches possible. Our best rain chances will likely come during the overnight hours.

In terms of temperatures, most of us will see highs around 90 degrees for the next two days due to the combination of cloud cover and the front. Will you feel it? If you live inland of Interstate 69/Highway 59, and you go outside on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning, it may feel slightly drier outside.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

For the second half of the week we should see mostly sunny skies as high pressure begins to build over the area. Highs will likely rebound into the mid-90s and we’ll be right back into full-on summer days in Houston, with overnight lows of around 80 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is a little bit less certain, as yet another front is likely to approach the region. However, this one very likely will stall out before reaching the Houston metro area. Nonetheless it may introduce some clouds and rain chances for the weekend. It does look like Saturday will be mostly sunny, and while there may be some scattered showers, the chances for wider rainfall likely will not come until Sunday. But all of these details will need to be hashed out in future forecasts.

Father’s Day may see the return of storms, especially near the coast

Hi all. I’m jumping in on Father’s Day to say that we are seeing some fairly high atmospheric moisture levels this morning that may, in turn, lead to at least scattered thunderstorms today, if not more widespread storms. This will provide a contrast to the recent string of hot and sunny days Houston has experienced.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for Father’s Day. (Weather Bell)

The next three days all look fairly wet for the region. Given the higher moisture levels, a disturbed atmosphere, and a weak “cool” front on Monday night and Tuesday, each day should see elevated rain chances. Sunday through Tuesday will each probably have about a 50 to 70 percent chance of rain during the daytime, with lesser odds at night. The better rain chances will come closer to the coast, and for the eastern half of the region.

In terms of three-day accumulations, most of the area will probably see 0.5 to 1.5 inches if rain. However, for areas closer to the coast, and east of Interstate 45, it would not surprise me to see some areas pick up 3 to 5 inches between now and Tuesday night.

It’s not going to be a total washout, by any means. And areas west and north of Houston will likely see a fair bit of sunshine over the next few days. But if you’re heading to the beach to celebrate dad today, you probably should also buy him an umbrella as a gift—just in case.

We’ll return with a full post on Monday morning.