The rest of March looks rather lovely for the Houston metro area

Summary: After a stormy weekend Houston’s weather takes a turn to the sunny side of things. In fact, we should see rather mild weather for the rest of the month, with only some very sporadic rain chances.

That brief period of Goldilocks weather

It’s March 18. The Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo is over. After living here for decades, my sense is that prior to the rodeo we are still capable of seeing cold, winter-like weather. Then, after the three-week show wraps up, our chances of really cold weather are pretty much over and we’re deep into spring. And that’s certainly the case this year.

Although temperatures tonight are likely to drop into the upper 40s in Houston, the remainder of the month looks fairly mild, with lows generally in the 50s and low 60s, and highs in the 70s. This is the ephemeral period of Houston weather in which we can enjoy a balance between the extremes, the Goldilocks weather that’s not too hot, and not too cold.

Monday night’s temperatures will be, by far, the coldest of the week. (Weather Bell)

Monday

After an at-times turbulent weekend with passing showers and storms, drier air associated with a cool front is finally moving into Houston this morning. We’ll see breezy conditions this afternoon, with gusts up to 25 or 30 mph from the north, as this drier air arrives. Skies, otherwise, will be partly sunny with temperatures in the upper 60s. Tonight will be the chilliest night of the week, as winds slacken and skies clear. Look for Houston to drop into the 40s, albeit precisely where in the 40s will depend on your location.

Tuesday

This will be a banger of a spring-time day, with mostly sunny skies, light winds, dry air, and highs in the mid- to upper-60s. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the mid-50s as a light southerly flow reestablishes itself.

Wednesday

We’ll be a bit warmer, and a bit more humid on Wednesday as the onshore flow continues. Look for highs of around 70 degrees, with partly sunny skies, and light southeasterly winds. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Thursday

Somewhat more dynamic weather is possible on Thursday as a coastal low pressure system approaches. This will bring a chunky chance of rain into the area, but the finer details remain elusive. The question is whether the bulk of the precipitation remains offshore, or not. For now I’ll say that if you live inland of Interstate 10, there’s maybe a 40 percent chance of rain, and that becomes increasingly higher as one gets closer to the coast. This is the kind of system that probably will bring 0.25 to 1 inch of rain to most, but again we’re painting with a broad brush here. Highs, otherwise, should be in the low 70s with mostly cloudy skies.

Friday

As the low moves off we should see sunny and mild conditions, with highs in the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks mild, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the upper 70s to possibly 80 degrees. Nights will be mild, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Rain chances, at this point, look low to non-existent. It looks like good bike riding weather to me.

Much of the United States will see cooler than normal weather to end the month of March. (Pivotal Weather)

Next week

By around Monday or Tuesday of next week the region’s next front should arrive. It may (or may not) bring some rain showers with it. This should carry our mild, spring-like weather through the end of the month, which likely means more highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

After Friday evening’s storms, on-and-off rain showers will persist through the weekend

Summary: The weekend continues to look fairly wet, with early Sunday morning the time at which we’re most likely to see heavy rainfall and organized storms.

As expected, storms on Friday brought some heavy rainfall and hail into the greater Houston region. The worst of this occurred in southern Fort Bend County, near Needville. Hail as large as 2.75 inches in diameter, which is very nearly the size of a baseball, was reported there and caused significant damage to structures. Fortunately, the conditions for severe weather are less favorable moving forward into today and Sunday.

So what should you anticipate? The radar is quiet this morning, and should remain so into the early afternoon hours. It is possible that a storm system to our southwest will move into Houston late this afternoon or early evening. However I think the most likely outcome is that it veers south of our area, or weakens substantially. Probably, then, we’ll see scattered, light to moderate showers this afternoon and evening. But there is a slight chance of some stronger thunderstorms we cannot entirely dismiss.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday. (Weather Bell)

The forecast for tonight and Sunday morning is a little more interesting. It appears as though a fairly strong atmospheric disturbance will approach from the west and produce a line of showers and thunderstorms tonight. In terms of timing, I’d anticipate these storms arriving on our western doorstep between 3 am and 6 am, and then pushing through Houston around sunrise and off the coast shortly afterward. Accumulations will vary widely, but I expect 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible.

For the rest of Sunday, we can anticipate on and off showers throughout the day, with cloudy skies and the mid-70s. I’m afraid the chance of rain will not entirely go away until drier air starts arriving behind a front on Sunday night.

The bottom line is that this weekend looks fairly wet, but perhaps not disastrously so. Please remain weather aware as you venture out and about. We’ll update further this weekend, if necessary.

Heads up Houston: Friday afternoon, evening storms look feisty

Summary: The threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening has increased a bit.

Good afternoon, all. I’m jumping in after looking at the latest data about conditions for the rest of the day, and this evening. We’ve seen plenty of daytime heating, and the atmosphere looks fairly ripe to produce storm activity. The bottom line is this: We’re going to see a risk of thunderstorms, some of which could become severe, this afternoon and evening in Houston. If you’re going to be out and about—and it’s a Friday night in Houston, the last weekend of the rodeo, so everyone is going to be going everywhere—you really need to be weather aware. That means checking conditions before you head out to your destination, and again before heading home.

NOAA severe weather outlook for Friday and Friday night. (NOAA)

Here’s what will probably happen. Showers and thunderstorms are already beginning to develop to the west of Houston, and these will migrate into the metro area later today, probably beginning some time around 3 pm. Some of these storms are likely to blow up, and become severe. NOAA has broad-brushed the entire metro area with a slight risk of damaging winds and hail, some of which could be 1 inch or more in diameter. While we cannot entirely rule out tornadoes, they seem like a much lower probability occurrence. Not everyone will see strong thunderstorms; indeed some locations may receive no rain at all today.

These storms will likely peak during the period from 4 to 7 pm CT before waning with the loss of daytime heating after sunset. After this we should see a break until the resumption of rain showers sometime on Saturday, probably at noon or later.

Details of this weekend’s wet forecast come into better focus

Summary: Houston faces the prospect of a wet weekend, with the stalling of a cold front nearby. There is the potential for severe weather, in the form of strong thunderstorms and possibly some hail, but for the most part the major watch item is moderate to heavy rainfall. Chances appear to be best from midday Saturday to midday Sunday. Some street flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday. (Weather Bell)

Friday

A check of the radar this morning reveals fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms to our west, between Sealy and Austin. Some of that activity is expected to work its way into Houston this morning, but we’re likely to see scattered, light showers for the most part. These should clear out by late morning, and I actually expect to see a few hours of sunshine during late morning or early afternoon.

As a result I expect temperatures to briefly pop up into the low- to mid-80s this afternoon. This heating should help produce conditions somewhat more favorable for rain showers late this afternoon and during the evening hours. I’d expect to see some of this activity approach from the west a couple of hours before sunset and then push into Houston.

Rodeo forecast

For the first time in a while this year, we have the potential for some dynamic weather during the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo this evening. It’s no slam dunk, but there is the chance of some rain and possibly strong thunderstorms during the 6 pm to 8 pm time frame this evening for much of the central and northern Houston area. By no means will everyone see rainfall or storms, but the potential is there. As you head out to the show this evening, please be weather aware. Temperatures, otherwise, will be mild, in the 70s. This chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through about midnight.

Saturday

We may well see a reprieve from activity overnight, and into the morning hours of Saturday. But some time, perhaps around noon, we should see rain showers building up over the area. This pattern should persist for about the next 24 hours, with the threat of on-again, off-again shower activity lingering into the middle of Sunday. Not all areas will see heavy rain, and I think there may be a fairly wide variance in rain totals. But most areas can probably expect to pick up between 1 and 4 inches of rain through the weekend. Highs on Saturday will likely top out in the mid-70s, with cloudy skies. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 60s.

Nearly all of the Houston region faces a slight risk of excessive rainfall on Saturday and Saturday night. (NOAA)

Sunday

The overall wet pattern will continue through at least Sunday morning, and potentially into the early afternoon hours as the aforementioned front slowly pushes through the area. Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s, again. We may see some partially clearing skies during the afternoon hours, but we’ll have to wait for the evening or overnight hours for substantially drier air to move in. As a result it now appears as though lows on Monday morning will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Next week

It will be pretty darn nice. Monday and Tuesday should bring at least partly, if not mostly, sunny skies back into Houston. We’ll see highs in the 60s and 70s, with drier air, and lows in the 40s and 50s (warmer near the coast, and cooler inland). The forecast starts to get fuzzy by mid-week, with chances for rainfall returning by Wednesday or Thursday along with highs of around 80 degrees.

Site note

We’ll update on the potential for heavy rain on Saturday and Sunday, and any flooding chances, if necessary.