Eric Berger

In brief: A passing shortwave will bring a decent chance of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms on Thursday. However we expect dry weather for fireworks on the Fourth of July, and most of the weekend should be rain-free. Temperatures look to remain hot for awhile, as is expected during July.

A shortwave surprise

One thing about meteorology is that it always keeps you on your toes. For several days now we’ve been predicting that high pressure would largely keep rain chances at bay during the second half of this week. But now it turns out that high won’t be quite strong enough to keep an atmospheric disturbance, known as a shortwave trough, from sliding into the region today. It is unlikely to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms, but there should at least be some scattered activity this afternoon, and a few showers on the Fourth of July as well. I still don’t anticipate any impacts on fireworks, however.

Thursday

The radar is quiet right now, but later this morning we are likely to see some showers develop to the west of the region. These should progress toward Houston during the middle of the day, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area this afternoon. Overall, your chance of seeing precipitation is probably about one-in-three. Skies, otherwise, will be partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-90s. Winds will be light, from the south at about 5 mph. Rain chances die off tonight, with muggy conditions and lows in the upper 70s.

Friday

The Fourth of July will bring a mix of sunshine and clouds, with high temperatures in the mid-90s or thereabouts. We will again see a chance of rain, although coverage might be slightly less than Thursday. So we should be somewhere between scattered and isolated showers. I expect these to diminish during the evening hours, so impacts on fireworks should be negligible. Lows Friday night will drop into the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend should bring partly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances are low to non-existent on Saturday. They look a little bit higher on Sunday, perhaps 30 percent, with the same heat and humidity.

Next week

Another disturbance is likely to traverse the area on Monday, leading to an elevated chance of rain before high pressure returns again. Most of next week will probably see highs in the mid- to upper-90s, with a slight chance of rain along the sea breeze. So, all in all, it should be pretty July-like.

In brief: Houston’s weather will largely deliver sunshine and humidity through the holiday weekend, although we cannot entirely rule out a few sporadic showers today and Thursday. Rain chances start to improve early next week.

Big picture overview

A ridge of high pressure is building over the region, and it will remain in place through the Fourth of July holiday weekend. That is not to say we are going to see no variation, but the next five days are likely to consist of mostly sunny skies, temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s for most areas away from the coast, and plenty of humidity. Aside from the heat, which is a little bit warmer than normal for early July but far from atypical here, wind and other conditions look mild. If you’re planning a BBQ or other gathering for the holiday weekend, you’ve got no concerns aside from the potential for sunburns.

Wednesday and Thursday

Skies will be mostly sunny today and Wednesday, with high temperatures in the vicinity of the mid-90s. There is enough moisture in the atmosphere to squeeze out a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours (primarily driven by the sea breeze), but I would rate these chances at about 10 percent. So possible, yes. But unlikely. You may also see a bit of Saharan dust in the atmosphere, but the amount is less than we had last month. Winds will be light most of the day, but may rise to about 10 mph with higher gusts during the afternoon and evening hours. Lows likely will not fall below the upper 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The holiday weekend will bring pretty much standard July weather to the area: hot, humid, and mostly sunny. Temperatures for fireworks on Friday night will still be solidly in the mid- to upper-80s with plenty of humidity. Rain chances are virtually zero on Friday and Saturday, but we may see the return of some sea breeze-driven showers by Sunday. We’ll see.

Next week

Our global models continue to indicate high pressure dominating our weather this week will start to weaken by Sunday or Monday, and this in turn should open us back up to the possibility of more widespread showers and thunderstorms, and perhaps high temperatures a degree or two lower. I’m not sure whether that will happen by Monday or Tuesday or a little later next week. But given that there is zero mystery in the near-term forecast for Houston (hot and sunny, rinse and repeat) it is nice to have at least something to bring you back to the website, dear reader.

In brief: Houston’s weather turns stable and predictable for the next week. Although some thunderstorm chances remain today, by and large we are moving to a mostly sunny, hot, and humid pattern through the holiday weekend. Expect fireworks at night, and fiery weather during the daytime.

A warmer pattern

As high pressure starts to build over the area, Houston should see its most sustained heat of the year over the next week or so. We have had a few days of 95-degree plus heat here or there this summer, but from now at least through the weekend we should consistently be in the mid- to upper 90s with very warm nights. We will see mostly sunny skies to go along with this heat, with only a smattering of rain chances. So basically, prepare for that rich Houston summer weather you know and love, because it now lies at hand.

Tuesday

As noted above, we can expect high temperatures this afternoon to reach the mid-90s for most of the Houston area away from the coast. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny. I do think there is a decent chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today as there remains a fair bit of moisture in the atmosphere. This is probably the kind of thing where perhaps 20 percent of the area sees rainfall, but there will be some pockets of fairly intense rain in those locations that do see rain. Winds will come from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Wednesday and Thursday

High temperatures will range from the low-90s near the coast to upper-90s for inland areas during these two days, with partly to mostly sunny skies. A few isolated showers will be possible during the afternoon hours, with peak heating. Nights will be partly cloudy and humid.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend should bring plenty of sunshine and heat. Specifically for the Fourth of July, rain chances are near zero with plenty of sunshine expected. It’s a good holiday for the beach, but with the Sun at its highest level in the sky for the year, you’ll quickly burn if you leave skin exposed for too long. For fireworks we have few weather concerns. It will be humid, of course, but it is always humid on the Fourth of July in Houston. The rest of the weekend will see continued temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. Perhaps there is a 10 or 20 percent chance of rain by Sunday.

Next week

As high pressure eases off a bit, we probably will see a slight uptick in rain chances next week, as well as a slight moderation in daily high temperatures. But how high those rain chances rise, and how much the mercury falls, remains an open question.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center is highlighting an area in the northeast Gulf as a potential area of development over the next few days. None of the models are getting too excited about this system, however. Regardless it is unlikely to have any meaningful impact on our weather here in Texas. Beyond this, the tropics appear to be quiet.

In brief: Today’s post looks back at a fairly typical June in Houston, and ahead to what we might expect in July. We are confident that the first week is going to be rather hot and mostly sunny, but there is no reason to expect high pressure to dominate the entire month.

June a bit warmer than normal

The month of June ends tonight, and if we look back the month delivered slightly above normal temperatures, and for most locations near-normal or above normal rainfall totals. All in all, it was a fairly typical June for the Houston region, which is to say plenty warm and humid, but without the high pressure that can lead to truly searing temperatures. That typically is reserved for July, August, and part of September.

So what about the upcoming month? Although we are going to start out with high pressure in residence, there is no strong signal for it to hang around all month. Instead, seasonal forecasters predict near-normal temperatures for the month, and average rainfall totals. Therefore we might have some hope that despite the very hot start to the month of July, all of July won’t be like this. We shall see.

Monday

Today will be a bit of a transition day. Some scattered showers will still be possible later this morning and during the afternoon hours, but overall coverage should be lower than on Sunday. I’d put chances around 30 percent. We should also start to see increased levels of haze due to African dust. This may cause some issues for people who are sensitive to dust. This haze should stick around through about Wednesday, or so.

Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. Winds, generally, will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the mid-70s for Houston.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

As high pressure takes hold, our rain chances will drop back to about 10 percent daily. Highs will vary between the mid- and upper-90s most days, with sunny skies and the aforementioned haze sticking around. Nighttime temperatures will drop into the mid- to upper-70s. Basically, it’s going to feel like full-on summer in Houston so prepare yourselves.

July 4th holiday weekend

Independence Day is Friday, and as usual in Houston we will celebrate our independence from cold air. Temperatures should peak this weekend, with much of the region away from the coast reaching the upper 90s to go along with sunny skies. We cannot entirely rule out a chance of rain on July 4th, but even if you do see a stray shower (perhaps a 10 percent chance), there should be nothing to mar fireworks shows across the area. Mosquitoes, on the other hand, are likely to be abundant after our rains of the last week.

Next week

There is some evidence that high pressure may back off a little bit next week, allowing for temperatures to moderate slightly by Monday or so, with a better chance of rain. We shall see, but at least it does not appear as though we are going to be seeing a perma-ridge type pattern where the high never wants to break.