Eric Berger

In brief: Temperatures are generally a few degrees below freezing this morning across the metro area, and you’ll want to look out for a few icy patches on area roads. But Houston is well on the way to putting this Arctic freeze behind us. So what does the rest of winter look like here?

Cold update

Most of Houston is experiencing a light freeze this morning, but temperatures are generally about 10 degrees warmer than they were on Wednesday morning. As a result there likely are still a few slick spots on roadways around Houston, including a few freeway bridges and ramps. However, these are mostly navigable if you just take a little more time and care driving this morning. For locations where temperatures are below freezing, they will rise above freezing between 9 and 10 am CT today.

The ghosts of Winter past, present, and yet to come

Now that we’re putting a significant Arctic blast in the rear view mirror, I want to take stock of the rest of winter in Houston. We’re much closer to the end than the beginning, as it is January 23. So far we’ve seen one much warmer than normal month in December, and one much colder than normal month in January. However, the final week of January looks to be fairly mild, with near normal temperatures after Friday.

Looking ahead to February, I expect we will slot back into a somewhat warmer than normal pattern in which the overall flow is more westerly (i.e. more moderate Pacific air masses) rather than northerly (i.e. Canadian and Arctic air masses) in nature. As a result the likely outcome for southern US states is warmer, according to NOAA’s monthly outlook. Although this does not mean we’re necessarily done with freezes for this year, it also would not shock me.

Thursday

We’ll see more sunshine today, and this should push high temperatures up to about 50 degrees for most of the area. Winds will be light, out of the north at 5 to 10 mph. I’d expect one more light freeze in Houston tonight, with the possibility of highs in the upper 20s for outlying areas.

Friday

This will be another fine, sunny day with highs perhaps a couple of degrees warmer, say in the lower 50s. As winds turn to come from the southwest, overnight lows will likely stay above freezing on Friday night for pretty much the entire metro area. However it will still be chilly, with temperatures dropping into the 30s for most locations.

Saturday

The overall pattern starts to change in a big way as high pressure shifts to the east, and we see an increasing onshore flow. This will allow for the development of some clouds on Saturday, and we’ll say goodbye to sunshine for awhile. Highs will reach about 60 or 65 degrees. Some light to moderate rainfall may approach the area by Saturday evening or Saturday night.

Sunday

This looks like a wet day as a slow-moving, weak front moves into, and stalls over Houston. Although we cannot rule out some briefly heavy rain, for the most part this day should just deliver a good soaking, with much of Houston picking up between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. Rain chances will probably be best in the middle of the day. Highs will reach the mid-60s. Rain chances continue, at a lower rate, overnight. Lows drop into the 50s.

Next week

Monday may see a bit of a cessation in rain, but the rest of next week should bring healthy chances each day as we enter a pattern dominated by an atmosphere with more moisture. Highs for the most part look to be in the 60s next week, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

In brief: This morning is as cold as it’s going to get in Houston during the Arctic freeze, with temperatures bottoming out in many locations in the upper teens. From this point on we’re going to slowly warm up through the weekend. As temperatures climb today, roads will clear out nicely by noon, and we can resume normal activities in the Houston area.

Cold status

Temperatures have fallen into the upper teens to lower 20s for most of the Houston metro area this morning, with a hard freeze firmly in place. This has allowed water on roadways to freeze again, and created hazardous conditions in many locations around the region with “black ice.” Extreme caution should be taken if you are driving this morning before about noon. Roads may appear dry, but patchy ice will be difficult to discern. It would be much better to remain home until late morning, when air temperatures should warm sufficiently to melt the water.

Houston Intercontinental Airport and Galveston are currently experiencing their coldest temperatures since an Arctic Outbreak last January, and Hobby Airport since December 2022. It’s notably colder to our east, in Texas and parts of Louisiana. Beaumont is having its coldest morning since 1906.

Arctic outbreak visualized

When we talk about an “Arctic air mass,” it essentially means that the cold air near the North Pole is displaced further south. This week it has moved over pretty much the entire continental United States. Meteorologist Ben Noll displayed this nicely on Tuesday, with a map showing the air temperatures around the planet relative to normal levels from 1991 to 2020. As you can see, the Arctic is much warmer than normal, whereas the United States significantly colder.

Wednesday

After our very cold start this morning, temperatures will climb above freezing across the metro area by 10 to 11 am. This will begin the melting process on area roads, which will accelerate by noon as temperatures reach about 40 degrees. Highs today may get all the way into the mid-40s, with sunny skies and light winds. Any lingering moisture on roads may re-freeze again on Wednesday night, but my sense is that that sunshine today will dry most everywhere out. We’ll see. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to about 30 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions in outlying areas.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of sunny days, with highs of around 50 degrees and generally light winds. There’s a chance that Houston sees a very light freeze on Thursday night, but by Friday night the region should remain in the upper 30s.

Saturday and Sunday

With the high pressure currently dominating our weather long gone by the weekend, expect highs near 60 degrees with partly sunny skies. Some light rain chances return Saturday evening, and then we are likely to see fairly widespread showers on Sunday. Accumulations don’t look serious, but it’s kind of a shame that our first reasonably warm day (mid- to upper-60s) in a while will be rainy outside.

Next week

Speaking of rain, there should be a fair amount of it next week as a front stalls over the area. In addition to daily chances, much of the period looks to be cloudy, with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. There is no sign, at least yet, of an additional significant freeze after this week.

In brief: This evening’s update celebrates Houston’s first snow day in a long time, when nearly everyone did the right thing and stayed home. With a very cold night on tap we need to hang tight for a little while longer before things warm up on Wednesday.

Houston has a snow day

Y’all did amazing today. The city of Houston, alone, has more than 16,000 miles of roadway. One could drive nearly two-thirds of the way around the world in that distance. Most of those roads were iced over today with snow, sleet, slush or some other wintry mess. And according to the Houston Police Department, there were just 22 accidents today. That’s a testament to all of the people who stayed home, all of the employers who made the painful decision to close their businesses, and every other organization that stood down today. It was a special day, a true snow day, and we’re unlikely to soon forget it.

But we’re not yet done. We need everyone to stay home again this evening, tonight, and early Wednesday morning before we thaw out for real. More on the timing of this below.

How cold tonight?

I would not gamble any money on making a temperature prediction tonight. I believe most of the region will fall into a range of about 18 to 28 degrees, and it will vary widely due to a number of factors, including snow cover. Regardless, it will be the coldest night of the Arctic outbreak we have experienced so far. For reference, temperatures generally fell into the upper 20s on Monday night in Houston. So if you’re worried about pipes, this is the night for maximum preparation.

Timing of Wednesday warm-up

I’ve been watching Houston Transtar’s cameras today, and just before sunset many of the area’s freeways still looked wet. That water is going to freeze tonight. A lot of Houston’s feeder roads and side streets, which got slushy or melted on Tuesday afternoon, are going to freeze tonight. There is a phenomenon known as black ice, which occurs after snow melts on roadways and then re-freezes. This is a thin sheet of ice that, because it is transparent, may not be readily visible to drivers.

All of that to say, some of Houston’s roads may have dried up today. But many of them did not, and they will be slick tonight and on Wednesday morning. For your safety, it would really be best to preclude any travel tomorrow before late-morning. Some time between 10 am and noon air temperatures will rise above freezing, and in concert with sunny skies this should act to fairly quickly melt remaining ice on Houston’s roads.

Mobility around Houston should rapidly improve during the afternoon hours on Wednesday, with high temperatures climbing into the 40s.

Our next update will come at the usual time, on Wednesday morning. Stay warm, y’all. We’re almost through this!

In brief: A winter storm has brought a mixture of precipitation to Houston overnight, including snow and sleet. This wintry precipitation will end later this morning, and we will see some sunshine and above-freezing temperatures this afternoon before a very cold night.

Storm status

The Houston region has received a mix of snow, sleet, and other forms of wintry precipitation during the overnight hours, setting up slick conditions on Houston area roadways. Total snow amounts have varied widely, from a fine dusting of ice and sleet in some locations to 3 inches or more elsewhere.

Additionally, it is quite cold outside this morning. Air temperatures are generally in the mid- to upper-20s for most of the Houston region. However the addition of brisk northerly winds, gusting up to 25 or even 30 mph from the north, have made it feel like it is in the teens outside.

With temperatures now well below freezing for much of Houston, what is falling is largely sticking to area roadways that have been untreated with salt. There are dozens of reports of ice on area freeways, feeders, and major roadways, some of which are shut down. You can track an list of Houston-area icy roadways on Houston Transtar.

In short, for some areas it is a winder wonderland outside, for some a sleet-fest, and for all a dangerous time to be outside. Please do stay home this morning if it is at all possible.

Tuesday

The latest modeling indicates that the precipitation we are seeing this morning will exit to the east by 9 or 10 am CT. We should then see some clearing skies early this afternoon across Houston, including the coast by later this afternoon. This sunshine should push temperatures toward the upper 30s, allowing for some of the ice and snow on the surface to melt.

Additionally, the combination of sunshine and windy conditions (from the north at about 15 mph) should begin the process of sublimation. Sublimation occurs when snow transitions directly into water vapor, without first becoming liquid water. I’m writing all of this because it is possible that some roads will become clear and dry this afternoon, especially for locations further from the coast where there will be a longer period of sunshine to work with.

This matters because temperatures are going to freeze again tonight. So if there is moisture on roads, it will freeze into ice tonight, and into Wednesday morning. This could lead to black ice or situations in which there are patches of icy, dangerous roads tonight.

The temperature tonight at your location will depend on how much snow cover remains. That’s because new snow has a very high albedo (up to 0.95 out of 1), which means it is highly reflective of heat (radiation) back into space. So locations where there is a snowpack tonight will be 5 or 10 degrees cooler than areas with “darker” surfaces not covered by snow.

Over the last couple of days we have watched as forecast models have really struggled with how cold temperatures will get in the Houston region on Wednesday morning. As a best guess, areas with a layer of snow may drop into the mid-teens tonight, and areas with less or no snow are likely to only fall into the mid-20s or so. My sense is that most of Houston probably will end up in the lower 20s, but we shall see.

Wednesday

After a cold start, high temperatures on Wednesday are expected to reach 40 degrees or even a little warmer under sunny skies. The combination of mostly sunny skies and sublimation should allow for roads to mostly dry out, but for some locations this may not happen until after noon. I realize the uncertainty is no fun, but such snow and ice events are relatively rare in Houston, so we are working on limited data about local roads and their response to icy conditions. Most of Houston will fall into the upper 20s on Wednesday night.

Thursday

A little warmer, with highs generally in the upper 40s to go along with mostly sunny skies. A light freeze is likely Thursday night.

Friday

Expect more sunshine, with highs in the 50s. Some inland areas may see a light freeze on Friday night, but most of us should be in the mid- to upper-30s.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect highs in the 60s this weekend, with nights only in the 50s as a warmer pattern returns. Saturday looks OK for outdoor activities, but rain chances start to increase by Sunday into next week.

Update schedule

We will have an update for you early this afternoon, by 2:30 pm CT, and again this evening to offer the best possible forecast for temperatures and roadways on Wednesday morning.