Eric Berger

In brief: Happy Easter to all who celebrate. Wanted to jump in with a quick holiday post so people are not surprised if thunderstorms pop up today, and by the possibility of some stronger storms this evening and during the overnight hours.

The remnants from a line of storms over Central Texas are currently approaching the Houston region this morning, and this will produce some showers and thunderstorms generally west of the city this morning, including in the Katy region. More isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the late morning and early afternoon hours across Houston, but there’s probably at least a 50 percent chance you don’t see rain until later today or this evening.

However, by this afternoon a weak front will sag into the region, stalling over the city of Houston. This will serve as a focus for the development of thunderstorms this evening, and during the overnight hours. Some of these thunderstorms could become severe, with the potential for damaging winds. Right now the dynamics are most favorable for thunderstorms north of Interstate 10, but I would not rule out thunderstorms anywhere in the metro area tonight and through at least Monday morning. On the Excitable Dogs Scale from 1 to 10, let’s call this a 7.5.

Rainfall amounts are going to be highly variable, but accumulations from this afternoon through midday on Monday could range from 1 to 3 inches for most locations, with the risk of higher totals. I would not rule out a few bullseyes of 5 inches or more somewhere in the metro area. This has the potential to cause some street flooding by the Monday morning commute. I’m going to hold off on issuing a Stage 1 flood alert, but this is something we’ll be watching today and update if warranted.

In brief: In this update we take a look at the forecast for Easter Sunday, which does not look too impactful for the greater Houston area. Nonetheless we are likely to see rain showers, and a few sporadic thunderstorms, on Sunday afternoon and evening.

Hi everyone, just wanted to jump in on this Saturday morning to provide a final look at the forecast for Easter Sunday (unless the outlook changes dramatically). We are still looking at a warm, mostly cloudy day today with temperatures in the mid-80s. Rain today and tonight is rather unlikely, so there are really no concerns beyond the relatively high (for April) humidity.

The forecast begins to change some on Sunday, when a weak front will sag toward the area. Most of our high resolution modeling suggests that Sunday morning should be fine, aside from the slim possibility of a few stray, light showers. Chances for showers and few thunderstorms increase during the afternoon hours for the western portion of the Houston metro area, and then spreading into the entire region during the evening. It would not surprise me if the best chance of rain for most locations in Houston comes during the overnight hours, into Monday morning, as the front stalls over the city.

In terms of impacts, most of Houston can expect between 0.25 and 0.75 inch of rain on Sunday and Sunday night, with the possibility of some sporadic thunderstorms. In terms of severe weather, the primary risk is damaging winds. But truth be told, overall, this does not look like a particularly threatening event. I’m hopeful that most of Houston will be able to enjoy outdoor activities through the morning and, possibly, much of the afternoon hours on Sunday. One can never be quite certain with setups like this, however, with a slow-moving front moving into an atmosphere with a decent amount of moisture.

If the outlook changes significantly, we will update this evening or on Sunday morning.

In brief: Today’s forecast looks ahead to warm and windy weather for the next couple of days, followed by a potentially rainy Easter Sunday. With two major sporting events taking place in the Houston region nine days from now, the MS 150 and IRONMAN Texas events, we also take a look at likely conditions for next weekend.

MS 150 ride and IRONMAN Texas

This morning we are taking a look ahead to the weekend of April 26, when there are two major outdoor events in which thousands of people will be exerting themselves outside in the elements. The first of these is the MS 150 ride on Saturday (from Houston to LaGrange) and Sunday (from LaGrange to College Station). The second is IRONMAN Texas, a swim, run, and cycling event in and around The Woodlands on Saturday.

Much of next week should see a decent chance of rain showers, but by next weekend this overall active pattern appears to settle down. So I’d peg rain chances at 20 percent, or less. The usual caveats apply to a forecast nearly 10 days out, but at this point I don’t see much evidence of a cool front arriving by next Saturday to shake things up. Therefore I think the most likely forecast is for temperatures in the mid-80s.

Unfortunately (especially for the triathletes) conditions look somewhat to very humid by next Saturday, and almost certainly we’re not going to see dewpoints in the 50s which would be more comfortable for outdoor exertions. In terms of winds we probably are looking at southerly or southeasterly winds, although how strong they will be is anyone’s guess. This is good news for the MS 150 riders, and for about half of the route triathletes will be taking during their cycling event. Good luck to all.

Thursday

Temperatures this morning are in the upper 60s across much of Houston, with dewpoints nearly to match. The mercury is headed into the mid-80s this afternoon beneath partly sunny skies, with partly sunny skies. As we have been saying, the story of the end of the week will be gusty southerly winds. We can expect breezy conditions for today, Friday, and Saturday, with gusts from the south up to about 30 mph, and possibly higher. Lows tonight will only drop to about 70 degrees.

Friday

I expect more clear skies to start the day on Friday, but things should cloud up at some point during the afternoon or evening hours. Depending on cloud cover, I think there’s a good chance that temperatures push into the upper 80s, with a few locations possibly hitting 90 degrees. So, pretty warm. And don’t forget about the gusty southerly winds. Coastal areas have a chance to see some light showers later on. Expect another warm night.

Saturday

This will be a cloudy and humid day, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. Again coastal areas should see a slight chance of rain, but the likelihood of rain for inland areas is probably 10 percent or less. Rain chances increase a bit during the overnight hours.

Easter Sunday

An approaching front will help drive a healthy chance of rain showers on Sunday, probably 50 percent or higher. We also have to consider the possibility of some thunderstorms, depending on the movement of the front. Right now various model solutions have the potential for several thunderstorms in east, or northeast, or central Houston. So Sunday’s weather is kind of like opening an Easter egg at your Aunt’s house. You never quite know what you’re going to find in there. My sense is that most areas will see the potential for some light rain during the morning hours, with better chances and the possibility of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. To be clear, I expect much of Houston to pick up a quarter of an inch of rain, or less. But there is the risk for higher amounts in some areas. Expect highs in the mid-80s, otherwise, with plenty of humidity.

Next week

The aforementioned front will probably move into the Houston region and peter out. This means we might see some slightly cooler weather on Sunday night or Monday. Rain chances fall back a bit before increasing again on Wednesday or Thursday. I’m hopeful that by the end of next week much of the area will have received 1 to 2 inches of of rain to help keep things green outside. Highs should remain in the 80s with plenty of humidity next week.

In brief: Temperatures are the lowest they’re going to get this week, and it’s really not all that cool outside. However, much more humid and windy weather is on the way after today through Saturday. Easter could see a chance of mostly light showers ahead of a possible cool front.

Wednesday

Temperatures this morning are in the low- to mid-60s across Houston and even cooler to the northeast. Although this is not chilly by any means, it is likely to be the coolest weather the region sees through the weekend as we enter a warmer and more humid pattern after today. Expect highs today in the lower 80s for most locations, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will come from the southeast beginning this morning, and by this afternoon they could be gusting up to 20 mph or so, marking the return of a robust and humid offshore flow that will be with us for awhile. Lows tonight will drop to about 70 degrees in Houston.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of days with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Both days should see high temperatures push into the mid- to upper-80s, with the potential for some locations to hit 90 degrees on Friday. The defining feature of both days is likely to be winds, with southerly gusts of 30 or even 35 mph possible during the afternoon hours. There is a slight chance of rain, perhaps about 10 percent, for both days. This pattern is also going to make for fairly humid nights, with lows only dropping to the lower 70s.

Saturday

This looks to be a mostly cloudy day, and this should help to limit temperatures slightly, perhaps in the mid- to upper-80 degree range. We still should see those fierce southerly winds, and warm and humid nights. Rain chances remain in the 10 percent vicinity. Anything that falls will be light.

Easter Sunday

Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies on Sunday, with humid weather and highs in the mid-80s. The good news is that southerly gusts should be a little bit less pronounced. The bad news for our little Egg hunters is that we are now looking at a solid 50 percent chance of rain as an atmospheric disturbance moves overhead. Most of that should be light to moderate rain, and overall I expect accumulations of one-quarter inch of rain or less. However for areas north of Interstate 10, there is a slight chance of some stronger thunderstorms.

Next week

I now think there’s about a 50-50 chance that a modest front makes it to the coast on Sunday night or Monday morning. It’s still no sure thing, but if it happens we could see a brief spell of cooler and drier air for a couple of days. We’ll see. Most models are still indicating a rainier pattern next week, particularly in the Wednesday through Friday time frame. A couple of inches of rain would be welcome, from a trees and plants standpoint at least. When we have any confidence in the details, we’ll share them.