Month: January 2025

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the city’s first freeze in nearly a year, and how long this cold weather will last. We also dig into the chances for snow or a wintry mix later this week (unlikely in Houston). Finally, our attention will turn toward the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, which faces the prospect of a major winter storm in the Thursday timeframe.

Low temperature watch

I realize it may be difficult to remember back to last winter. After a long, long summer I know it is challenging for me. However, if you recall, we had a pretty potent Arctic blast in the middle of last January. The low temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport dropped to 18 degrees on one night. And on January 20, the temperature reached 29 degrees at the city’s official monitoring station.

Houston had not recorded a freezing temperature since then—until this morning. As of 7 am CT, the low temperature at Bush airport is 30 degrees, with some locations further inland, in places such as Montgomery County, dropping into the upper 20s. Pretty much the entire metro area, bar the immediate coast, has reached freezing temperatures this morning. This very chilly weather will stick with us through Saturday.

Monday

Although it’s very cold outside this morning, by Houston standards at least, there are at least some bits of good news. Winds that had been gusting up to 30 mph, or higher, overnight are starting to come down. We’ll remain a bit gusty through the morning hours before things really quiet down this afternoon. Skies, too, will be sunny today, and this will help push our high temperatures into the mid-40s. What is beneficial for daytime weather, however, is also ideal for cooling down tonight. And with clear skies and light winds I expect that low temperatures tonight will again drop to the levels we’re seeing this morning, if not a degree or two colder. Tonight will be the coldest night of the forecast period. A hard freeze is possible along and north of Highway 105, which runs from Cleveland to Conroe.

Tuesday

This will be another sunny day, with high temperatures likely reaching the upper 40s. Winds will be light, from the north. Lows on Tuesday night should be a couple of degrees warmer, with the urban core of Houston probably not quite falling to the freezing level.

Wednesday

We’ll start to see some clouds building on Wednesday, which will help to limit high temperatures to perhaps the lower 40s. So this could be the coldest daytime temperature of the week.

Thursday

A coastal low pressure system will bring a healthy chance of rain into the forecast beginning late Wednesday night, and especially on Thursday. Given the ongoing cold weather, this raises the possibility of snow or, more likely the threat of freezing rain. At this point, for Houston, I anticipate that low temperatures on Thursday morning (probably in the mid-30s) will be just warm enough to preclude the chance of wintry precipitation locally. Additionally, daytime highs in the 40s will be warm enough prevent anything from sticking.

But it’s going to be a fairly close call, and we could see some issues in places like College Station or northern Montgomery County. It’s something we’ll continue to keep an eye on, but again, for Houston, I think this probably just ends up being a cold and rainy day. Most areas could see 1 inch or more of rain. Just think, if it were 10 degrees colder, we could be talking about a foot of snow in Houston! Lows on Thursday night should drop into the mid- to upper-30s, which should again be just warm enough to prevent any wet streets in Houston from freezing over. We’ll see.

Friday

This looks to be another cold and gray day, with highs in the upper 40s maybe. Lows on Friday night should be chilly again, perhaps falling to within a couple of degrees of freezing in Houston. Maybe it even gets all the way to freezing again in Houston, I’m not sure.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks sunnier and warmer, with highs in the 50s, perhaps, and lows in the upper 30s or lower 40s. So still cold, but not as cold.

North Texas slop-fest

Although Houston will (probably) be missing out on a winter storm this week, the same cannot be said for areas of north Texas, particularly along the Interstate 20 corridor, and East Texas. These areas will also see a decent amount of precipitation on Wednesday night and Thursday, and it is likely to come in the form of snow, or sleet, or both. I anticipate this will set the stage for a major ice storm on the roads of north Texas, so if your travel plans include Dallas, Fort Worth, or anywhere in Texas north of Huntsville or Austin you’ll need to keep careful tabs on the weather. I don’t think we can say which form of wintry precipitation is coming to north Texas, but something cold and slick is indeed on the way.

In brief: The much-discussed Arctic front is on schedule for this afternoon, bringing freezing temperatures to the Houston area after midnight tonight. This post discusses how cold we’re going to get, and whether precipitation on Thursday will just be rain, or something else.

Cold coming

The first few days of the new year have been relatively mild, with high temperatures in 60s and 70s. That will change in a big way later today, with the strongest front of the winter season on track to arrive in the Houston area this afternoon. This front will usher in a freeze to inland areas, including locations such as Katy and The Woodlands, by around midnight. Temperatures should reach freezing for all but areas immediately along the coast by Monday morning. Colder than normal weather will stick around for the remainder of the week.

Frontal passage

Some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will accompany the front’s passage today as it moves from northwest to southeast across Houston. At present I expect it to reach northwest Harris County by around 2 to 4 pm, and swoop down to the coast by around sunrise. There is a slight chance of some severe weather with the front, especially to the northeast of Houston, in the form of stronger thunderstorms. But mostly, everyone will notice the winds kicking up, and drier air moving in. Temperatures fall pretty quickly behind the front.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday

This will be the coldest period, with daytime high temperatures in the 40s. Each night will bring freezing, or near-freezing temperatures throughout Houston. It’s possible that the urban heat island effect could keep some parts central Houston at or just above freezing. But the bottom line is that if you have tender plants, and do not live right on the coast, they are susceptible to freezing.

However, most of the Houston metro area will not face a hard freeze. That is when air temperatures fall into the mid-20s or below, at which point one needs to worry about pipes. So from an infrastructure standpoint, I’m not too concerned about this freeze. A hard freeze is possible for areas along and north of Highway 105.

A wintry mix on Wednesday night?

There is still some uncertainty about conditions on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A low-pressure system is likely to being a healthy chance of rain into the forecast late Wednesday night and into Thursday. Overall we may see as much as 1 inch of rainfall. The question is whether temperatures are cold enough on Thursday morning to support a wintry mix, be it snow, sleet, freezing rain, or what have you. Another factor is when the precipitation starts, as by mid-morning temperatures should be comfortably above freezing.

My sense is that most of Houston probably will just see rain, but that areas inland of Interstate 10 have a chance of seeing snow or sleet. I think it’s a low chance at this point, maybe 10 or 20 percent. But it’s something we’ll keep an eye on considering the potential for mischief with transportation on Thursday morning.

In brief: Houston will experience milder conditions until a robust front arrives on Sunday, with the possibility of some severe weather to the northeast of the city as it passes. Afterward we’ll see blustery conditions, with the likelihood of light freezes and, by Wednesday night or so, even the potential for some sleet or snow.

Friday

There’s some light drizzle at a few locations around Houston this morning, but this should soon clear out. We’ll be left with a partly to mostly cloudy day, and high temperatures in the upper 60s or so. Winds will be light from the northwest and temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 50s.

Saturday

A similar day to Friday, albeit a little bit more humid, perhaps a little more sunshine, and a little warmer. Expect highs in the mid-70s. Saturday night will be quite a bit warmer, with lows only dropping into the mid-60s. If you are looking for a mild evening outdoors, this is it.

Sunday

Sunday will start out warm, and high temperatures will likely reach the lower- to possibly mid-70s before a front comes sweeping down from the northwest. The timing remains a bit uncertain, but this is likely to occur during the afternoon hours. It looks as though a line of broken showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front’s passage, with the greater likelihood of rain, and possibly severe winds, to the north and east of Houston.

Temperatures will drop rapidly behind the front, as brisk northwesterly winds bring in much drier and cooler air. By early Monday morning much of the region will experience a light freeze, with temperatures dropping into the 30 to 35 degree range for most of the metro area.

Monday and Tuesday

This period will bring us our coldest weather of the season, to date. Look for high temperatures in the 40s, with sunny skies. The clear skies will allow for ideal cooling overnight, with temperatures dropping to around 30 degrees in Houston, give or take. We still don’t have a concrete handle on how cold things will get, but I continue to lean toward a “light” freeze rather than a “hard” freeze. This will be less impactful on our infrastructure, but please do keep pets and plants protected during this cold spell.

Wednesday and Thursday

Temperatures remain cold during the latter half of the week, and we’ll need to keep our eyes on a coastal low pressure system that could bring some decent precipitation chances, especially on Wednesday night and Thursday. Depending on whether this system delivers, and how cold temperatures get, we could see some sort of sleet, snow, or other wintry precipitation on Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Saying precisely what, or how much, is impossible this far out. The bottom line is that if you have plans for Thursday they could be a little messy. We’ll see.

Later next week

Temperatures begin to moderate somewhat heading into next weekend, although we still look cool for this time of year, with highs in the 50s and lows perhaps in the upper 30s, give or take. Winter, for the next week at least, is going to feel like winter around here.

In brief: So far this winter in Houston has been abnormally warm, with December feeling more like late fall than winter. But that’s about to change as an Arctic front arrives in Houston on Sunday, bringing much colder air into the region. However, it’s looking more like the metro area will see a light freeze rather than a hard freeze next week.

Winter so far

There are several definitions of winter, but from a climate standpoint in Houston the three coldest months are December, January, and February. By this definition this winter has, to date, been incredibly warm. December had an average monthly temperature of 61.1 degrees in the city, which is 5.7 degrees above normal. So far the city of Houston has yet to record a freeze at its official monitoring station, at Bush Intercontinental Airport. The lowest temperature so far has been 35 degrees.

Beginning Sunday or Sunday night we will shift into a colder pattern that will stick around. Although there are still some details to be worked out, much of the Houston area is likely to see a light freeze next week. The good news is that, for now at least, most of our modeling guidance has backed off the idea of a hard freeze in Houston. So we are probably not looking at a situation where most of the area falls into the low- or mid-20s. But we will continue to keep an eye on this.

Thursday

Lows this morning have fallen to about 50 degrees, and with a light easterly wind we’re seeing the development of some clouds. Skies will be mostly cloudy for much of today and tonight, with highs likely only reaching the lower 60s. A few isolated showers will be possible today, but I expect most of us will not see any rainfall. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-50s.

Friday

As winds shift to come from the northeast we should see clearer skies on Friday, with highs in the upper 60s to possibly lower 70s. Lows on Friday night will fall into the mid-50s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be mild ahead of a front on Sunday. Skies on Saturday should be partly to mostly cloudy, with highs around 70 degrees, and a warm night with lows only dropping to around 60 in Houston. Sunday will be warmer, in the mid-70s. The front should reach Houston some time during the afternoon hours, possibly with a broken line of showers or thunderstorms (nothing serious, probably), followed by much drier and colder air. This is a slap-you-in-the-face kind of front with gusty winds coming from the northwest almost immediately. Temperatures will likely fall into the upper 30s by Monday morning.

Next week

The colder weather will stick around for much of next week, although Tuesday and Wednesday mornings now look to probably be the coldest of the period. For much of Houston that probably means a light freeze, with temperatures in the vicinity of 30 degrees. We could be colder than that, or a bit warmer, as it remains to be seen. Highs are likely to be in the 40s for a few days. There’s a possibility of a wintry mix on Wednesday, Wednesday night, or Thursday morning, but this will depend on whether there’s enough moisture for precipitation, and how cold things get. It’s just not possible to say at this time. Next weekend will probably be a little warmer, but still chilly.