This forecast is for the birds, and also the weekend weather looks unsettled

In brief: Today’s post discusses high winds expected over the Houston region this week, and our warm temperatures. Depending on clouds, some locations may hit 90 degrees. A strong front arrives this weekend and brings a chance of storms on Saturday. Next week looks much cooler and drier. Also, it’s bird migration time. We provide a way to track the nocturnal activity of these friendly fliers.

It’s bird migration time

I had a little fun with the headline this morning, but the reality is that April is the prime month for birds to migrate north across Texas from tropical South America and Mexico. There’s a fantastic resource called BirdCast which uses a variety of tools to track such migrations over Harris County, including weather radars and local observations. For example, the site estimates that about 600,00 birds flew overhead last night.

Real-time data on bird migration across Harris County. (BirdCast)

Migrations are also greater when winds are from the south, as this assists the flight of the birds, and we’re expecting fairly pronounced southerly winds this week. (Hence, this weather really is for the birds). Although birds will typically fly at 1,000 or more feet up in the atmosphere, they may stop to rest in our parks and coastal sanctuaries. If you want to help, you can turn out lights at night, as these can prove disorienting to birds. This video from Cornell University’s Lab of Ornithology offers much more information about all of this.

Wednesday

I wasn’t kidding about those winds. We are seeing gusts this morning of 30 mph, or higher, across much of the area, and we’re going to see fairly gusty conditions from now through Saturday. Winds should peak during the afternoon hours. Our high temperatures today will be determined by the extent to which we see clearing skies this afternoon, but my sense is that most areas will see enough clouds to hold highs in the upper 80s. But it’s still going to be quite warm and humid outside, especially with dewpoints around 70 degrees. There is a very slight chance of some showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two north of Houston this afternoon and evening. We’re likely talking areas along and north of Highway 105 here, so most of the Houston region should experience none of this.

HRRR model forecast for maximum wind gusts on Thursday. (Weather Bell)

Thursday and Friday

These look to be similar days, with gusty southerly winds and temperatures slotting in between the mid-80s and 90 degrees depending on cloud cover. Thursday probably has the best chance to be sunny during the afternoon, so that’s when most of the area probably will make a run at 90 degrees. It will be humid regardless, with warm nights. Both days will have about a 10 percent chance of some showers, so most of us will be dry.

Saturday and Sunday

A strong cold front will push through the area on Saturday, likely during the daytime hours. This should bring a good shot of rain with it, along with the potential for severe thunderstorms. Although the dynamics for strong storms look better to the northeast of Houston, we certainly cannot rule out impacts in the city. We are talking about the potential for heavy rainfall, brief street flooding, damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado. Again, none of these are certainties or perhaps even likely, but conditions are such that they’re possible. (Much of the city probably will see 0.5 to 1 inch of rain, for example). We should have a better idea about the overall threat in the coming days. The bottom line is that you should be prepared for the possibility of inclement weather on Saturday, especially in Kingwood and points to the northeast.

Depending on the timing, temperatures probably will reach the low- to mid-80s before the front trundles through. Lows on Saturday night will likely drop into the low 50s for much of the area. Some slight rain chances linger on Sunday, but I expect clearing skies at some point during the day. Highs probably will still only max out in the 60s.

By Monday morning it will be borderline chilly in Houston. (Weather Bell)

Next week

Most of next week looks sunny and spring-like. Seriously, if you like mild temperatures and dry air, I’d advise soaking next week up. We should see daytime temperatures in the 70s and nights in the 50s through Wednesday or Thursday before we warm back up into the 80s. In addition to lots of sunshine we can expect much lighter winds for the most part. Cannot wait.

Expect breezy and warm conditions for awhile, but next week still looks considerably cooler

In brief: Houston’s overall pattern appears to be set for the next 10 days. We’ll be breezy, warm, and humid for the rest of this week, with the potential for some thunderstorms on Saturday as a strong front rumbles through. Then, next week looks quite a bit cooler with the potential for some nights in the 40s. Also, we’re introducing an exciting new product for younger readers. Check that out at the end of today’s post.

Tuesday

We are seeing patchy fog this morning, and that’s an indication that conditions are fairly muggy outside. It also means that winds are fairly light, but that will soon change. Beginning this afternoon winds will pick up from the south at 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph or so. We’re going to see fairly gusty conditions over the region for the rest of the week as a fairly tight gradient sets up. As for temperatures, we’re probably going to hold in the low- to mid-80s today, depending on the extent of cloud cover. Lows tonight will only drop into the lower 70s, so very muggy for early April.

Thursday should be the hottest day of the week. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The second half of the work week will bring similar, but still warmer conditions. Each day will see a mixture of sunshine and clouds, with high temperatures ranging from the mid-80s to around 90 degrees. Nights will be warm and muggy. As noted above, each day will be feature a pronounced southerly wind. We cannot rule out some scattered showers on Friday afternoon or evening, but at this point it appears likely that rain will hold off until Saturday.

Saturday

Speaking of Saturday, there’s the possibility of some strong thunderstorms to go along with a frontal passage. This will be a rather strong front for April, so the setup for severe weather will be in place, but at this point we cannot have too much confidence in the details. In any case, know there is the potential for some storms on Saturday, with details to come. Highs likely will reach the mid-80s, but again this is dependent upon the timing of the front. Some showers may linger into Saturday night, when lows drop into the 50s.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday. (Weather Bell)

Sunday

I expect some clouds to linger on Sunday, and the combination of overcast skies and the influx of cooler air my limit high temperatures in the 60s. Lows on Sunday night will likely drop into the upper 40s for inland areas, and lower 50s closer to the coast.

Next week

Much of next week looks sunny and cooler, with highs in the upper 60s to 70s, and nights in the 40s and 50s. We’ll probably be back in the 80s by Thursday or so, but humidity levels should remain relatively low. Enjoy the dry air, as it is not clear how much more we’re going to see this spring.

Introducing Hype+

Today I’m excited to announce a new product from Space City Weather that we’re calling Hype+. Although anyone may become a member of the Hype+ community, we’re targeting this service at younger readers who want a faster-paced forecast. We are well aware that many people in their teens and twenties are far less accustomed to reading longer stories and posts online. We typically write 500 to 1,000 words per update. Matt, bless his heart, sometimes writes half a novel.

That’s why we’re introducing Hype+ today. This is a version of Space City Weather available exclusively in select apps, including Roblox, TikTok, Snapchat, and Bumble. Through a partnership with OpenAI, a special WeatherBot will summarize each post in an anime video that is 30 seconds or less.

Because younger people generally appreciate controversial or visually stimulating content, this Bot will be trained to sensationalize our posts with explosions, hurricanes, and derechos of every shape and size. Updates will automatically be inserted into your feed. Subscribers will recognize it as a post from Space City Weather because each update will be preceded by the word BREAKING with lots of exclamation points and emojis.

If you’re interested in Hype+, the service can be purchased for $4.01 a month, and at that price you’d be a fool not to take us up on it!