In brief: A passing shortwave will bring a decent chance of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms on Thursday. However we expect dry weather for fireworks on the Fourth of July, and most of the weekend should be rain-free. Temperatures look to remain hot for awhile, as is expected during July.
A shortwave surprise
One thing about meteorology is that it always keeps you on your toes. For several days now we’ve been predicting that high pressure would largely keep rain chances at bay during the second half of this week. But now it turns out that high won’t be quite strong enough to keep an atmospheric disturbance, known as a shortwave trough, from sliding into the region today. It is unlikely to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms, but there should at least be some scattered activity this afternoon, and a few showers on the Fourth of July as well. I still don’t anticipate any impacts on fireworks, however.
HRRR model depiction of radar at 2 pm CT suggests the possibility of some showers and thunderstorms later today. (Weather Bell)
Thursday
The radar is quiet right now, but later this morning we are likely to see some showers develop to the west of the region. These should progress toward Houston during the middle of the day, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area this afternoon. Overall, your chance of seeing precipitation is probably about one-in-three. Skies, otherwise, will be partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-90s. Winds will be light, from the south at about 5 mph. Rain chances die off tonight, with muggy conditions and lows in the upper 70s.
Friday
The Fourth of July will bring a mix of sunshine and clouds, with high temperatures in the mid-90s or thereabouts. We will again see a chance of rain, although coverage might be slightly less than Thursday. So we should be somewhere between scattered and isolated showers. I expect these to diminish during the evening hours, so impacts on fireworks should be negligible. Lows Friday night will drop into the upper 70s.
Saturday and Sunday
The first half of the weekend should bring partly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances are low to non-existent on Saturday. They look a little bit higher on Sunday, perhaps 30 percent, with the same heat and humidity.
This weekend will be hot, but not excessively so for this time of year. (Weather Bell)
Next week
Another disturbance is likely to traverse the area on Monday, leading to an elevated chance of rain before high pressure returns again. Most of next week will probably see highs in the mid- to upper-90s, with a slight chance of rain along the sea breeze. So, all in all, it should be pretty July-like.
In brief: Houston’s weather will largely deliver sunshine and humidity through the holiday weekend, although we cannot entirely rule out a few sporadic showers today and Thursday. Rain chances start to improve early next week.
Big picture overview
A ridge of high pressure is building over the region, and it will remain in place through the Fourth of July holiday weekend. That is not to say we are going to see no variation, but the next five days are likely to consist of mostly sunny skies, temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s for most areas away from the coast, and plenty of humidity. Aside from the heat, which is a little bit warmer than normal for early July but far from atypical here, wind and other conditions look mild. If you’re planning a BBQ or other gathering for the holiday weekend, you’ve got no concerns aside from the potential for sunburns.
It’s not an over-bearing ridge of high pressure, but it will be enough to bring sizzling temperatures this week. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday and Thursday
Skies will be mostly sunny today and Wednesday, with high temperatures in the vicinity of the mid-90s. There is enough moisture in the atmosphere to squeeze out a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours (primarily driven by the sea breeze), but I would rate these chances at about 10 percent. So possible, yes. But unlikely. You may also see a bit of Saharan dust in the atmosphere, but the amount is less than we had last month. Winds will be light most of the day, but may rise to about 10 mph with higher gusts during the afternoon and evening hours. Lows likely will not fall below the upper 70s.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
The holiday weekend will bring pretty much standard July weather to the area: hot, humid, and mostly sunny. Temperatures for fireworks on Friday night will still be solidly in the mid- to upper-80s with plenty of humidity. Rain chances are virtually zero on Friday and Saturday, but we may see the return of some sea breeze-driven showers by Sunday. We’ll see.
The precipitation outlook for next week is favorable. (Pivotal Weather)
Next week
Our global models continue to indicate high pressure dominating our weather this week will start to weaken by Sunday or Monday, and this in turn should open us back up to the possibility of more widespread showers and thunderstorms, and perhaps high temperatures a degree or two lower. I’m not sure whether that will happen by Monday or Tuesday or a little later next week. But given that there is zero mystery in the near-term forecast for Houston (hot and sunny, rinse and repeat) it is nice to have at least something to bring you back to the website, dear reader.
We’re back with a new Q&A! Eric and Matt have had their hands full with their day jobs the past couple of months, and that is likely to continue, so consider these kinds of posts “occasional” rather than monthly going forward.
Got a question of your own for our next round? Leave it in the comments, or drop it intothe Contact link on the home page. We may also trollour Facebook pagefor Qs that we can A.
– Dwight
Q. What does the temperature being so hot this early do to the hurricane season this summer?
A. The average temperature in May was 3.2 degrees above normal in Houston, and nearly 2 degrees above normal in June. Part of the reason for this is that sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are warmer than normal. (This influences local air temperatures, especially at night).
A warmer Gulf, of course, means that any passing hurricane or tropical storm will have more energy available to support intensification over water. So in that sense, warmer temperatures are more favorable for stronger hurricanes. However, aside from that connection, there is nothing I am aware of that links air temperatures in Texas in early summer to making the region more prone to hurricanes in a given season.
– Eric
Sea surface temperature anomaly map as of June 29. (NOAA)
Q. I’ve seen your posts about local forecast issues because of weather service cuts, but I haven’t seen much about how it might affect hurricane forecasting in general. Can you address this?
A. Like just about everything, the real answer to this question is somewhat nuanced. Simply put, we rely on a lot of data from NOAA and the National Weather Service to inform our forecasting. So any cuts to their services or data would be problematic. Despite all the noise around budget cuts and such, thus far, there have only really been 2 significant items of note that could negatively impact actual hurricane forecasts right now.
First is the loss of routine weather balloon launches collecting upper air data across parts of the middle of the country. We covered the impacts of this at The Eyewall in detail back in March. In short: If those weather balloon launches remain on hiatus with active storms in the Gulf, that could negatively impact the forecast of the tropical storm or hurricane track enough so that we would want to “pad” our forecasts by a few extra miles on either side of the cone.
Secondly, news that came down late last week is more important and troublesome. We also covered that at The Eyewall. In a nutshell, a Department of Defense satellite is nearing the end of its life. Last week, they announced data would cease on Monday from a particular instrument on that satellite that is critical to hurricane forecasting. Early Monday it was reported that the satellite instrument had been granted a reprieve until the end of July. This Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) helps meteorologists see through the clouds in tropical systems, allowing them to make much better intensity estimates. The loss of that data will lead to somewhat poorer initialization data on storm intensity and location, which could impact every model we use to forecast. While there are some fallback measures in place, it goes without saying that that is a huge loss. Unfortunately, aside from questionable communication of the decision from the government, this seems like just a poorly timed coincidence more than anything.
Neither kneecaps us this hurricane season in terms of forecasting, but it will make us think twice about being highly confident in any given scenario, even within a day or two of landfall.
Related to this, is that the administration’s proposed budget for NOAA was formally given to Congress on Monday, and it basically destroys the entire infrastructure of weather research in America. That’s a much bigger threat than anything done so far, and it would without question set weather forecasting and research in this country back years.
– Matt
Q. Last year I moved into a house with a yard for the first time in my adult life. I lived in a townhouse for almost a decade and one of the things that attracted me to it was not having to take care of a lawn. Unfortunately I’ve gotten to where I was really struggling to live in a two story. I have someone who cuts the grass and amazingly have been able to get away with not watering yet, but I know it’s coming. So any hints? How do I know when it needs it? How long to run the sprinkler? What time of day is best?
A. Well, you’ve picked a good year to have a lawn. March and April were fairly dry months for most of the region, but we had not yet reached the real growing season for lawns yet. By the time warmer temperatures started to arrive in May, we began to see regular rains. The pattern continued into June when we have seen plenty of rain. So far, so good, in terms of not needing a sprinkler this year. But July and August are looming, and I doubt we’ll get through the next two months without needing to water lawns.
As a general rule, I find that if a yard in full sun receives a soaking rainfall, it can go about 7=10 days before needing to be watered. Areas in partial shade can go several days longer. There is no secret about when grass needs to be watered. First it will start to wilt, then the grass will appear to be thinner and weaker as it dries out. The ground will be hard. This is the last step before grass begins to brown and dry out. You need to water the grass before it turns brown, because then it will be too late.
A man and his mower.
In terms of amount, I find that 20 minutes every three days works pretty well. Early morning is best. Please note I am far from a lawn expert, but I do have a quarter of a century of experience keeping a lawn alive in Houston.
– Eric
Q. Is it true that flat land is more prone to tornados? I know the area around St. Louis has some flat land. And we do get some tornados here. Does Houston’s urban landscape, with lots of tall buildings, protect us at all?
A. There are a number of persistent myths about tornadoes that have withstood the test of time for one reason or another. First, tornadoes seem to be more common over flat land because a number of tornadoes that are visually documented in the most dramatic fashion tend to occur in the Plains, which are generally flat.
Still can't believe this happened. Still can't believe this is a photo I took. 📍Wellfleet, NE 6/16/25 pic.twitter.com/9X7Vu6ylof
I mean, it’s tough to beat an image like that. But reality is nuanced! Tornadoes have occurred in all 50 states, and what determines where tornadoes most likely occur is less about terrain and more about large scale weather and climate patterns, which is why the Plains and Southeast tend to lead the country in tornado events. But at a local scale, some areas can be somewhat more favorable than others due to topography. For example, we’ve seen a few examples of tornadoes impacting near Pikes Peak in Colorado in recent years, including just last month!
Tornadoes have occurred even higher in elevation in Colorado including a 2012 Mount Evans tornado at nearly 12,000 feet.
Two places near where I’ve lived have some topographical features that can produce enhancement of tornado risk: Parts of southeastern Pennsylvania have mountains to the west and Delaware Bay to the southeast, which almost acts like a much smaller scale version of the Rockies and Gulf respectively in feeding a miniature tornado alley. In Upstate New York, added “twist” to the wind north of Albany because of the intersection of the Mohawk and Hudson Valleys can add a little extra “oomph” to tornadoes there too, an area that is more hilly than flat.
Houston’s urban landscape does not really protect us. While it may act to locally enhance or “shadow” certain thunderstorm impacts, the downtown skyscrapers are not immune to tornadoes. A tornado went through downtown in 1970. Granted it was fairly weak. But Houston’s tornado history is littered with generally lower-end tornadoes in all corners of the city. Other major downtowns that have been hit by tornadoes include Nashville, Fort Worth, Miami, Los Angeles (yes, for real), Salt Lake City, Atlanta, and more.
So downtown skyscrapers offer no real protection. The reasons downtown areas get hit so infrequently overall is simply a matter of luck and math. The footprint of rural land is much greater than that of urban land. So the odds of an urban center being struck by a tornado are automatically much lower than an open field or farmland in the Plains. And it’s why tornadoes that hit cities tend to get covered significantly in the media, simply because more people and structures are impacted.
Bottom line: Tornadoes can occur virtually anywhere and cityscapes and elevation in most cases don’t offer protection. The causes of tornadoes are because of atmospheric ingredients and geography, sometimes buoyed by local effects of topography.
In brief: Houston’s weather turns stable and predictable for the next week. Although some thunderstorm chances remain today, by and large we are moving to a mostly sunny, hot, and humid pattern through the holiday weekend. Expect fireworks at night, and fiery weather during the daytime.
A warmer pattern
As high pressure starts to build over the area, Houston should see its most sustained heat of the year over the next week or so. We have had a few days of 95-degree plus heat here or there this summer, but from now at least through the weekend we should consistently be in the mid- to upper 90s with very warm nights. We will see mostly sunny skies to go along with this heat, with only a smattering of rain chances. So basically, prepare for that rich Houston summer weather you know and love, because it now lies at hand.
Tuesday
As noted above, we can expect high temperatures this afternoon to reach the mid-90s for most of the Houston area away from the coast. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny. I do think there is a decent chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today as there remains a fair bit of moisture in the atmosphere. This is probably the kind of thing where perhaps 20 percent of the area sees rainfall, but there will be some pockets of fairly intense rain in those locations that do see rain. Winds will come from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.
Hello, heat. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday and Thursday
High temperatures will range from the low-90s near the coast to upper-90s for inland areas during these two days, with partly to mostly sunny skies. A few isolated showers will be possible during the afternoon hours, with peak heating. Nights will be partly cloudy and humid.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
The weekend should bring plenty of sunshine and heat. Specifically for the Fourth of July, rain chances are near zero with plenty of sunshine expected. It’s a good holiday for the beach, but with the Sun at its highest level in the sky for the year, you’ll quickly burn if you leave skin exposed for too long. For fireworks we have few weather concerns. It will be humid, of course, but it is always humid on the Fourth of July in Houston. The rest of the weekend will see continued temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. Perhaps there is a 10 or 20 percent chance of rain by Sunday.
Next week
As high pressure eases off a bit, we probably will see a slight uptick in rain chances next week, as well as a slight moderation in daily high temperatures. But how high those rain chances rise, and how much the mercury falls, remains an open question.
Tropics outlook from the National Hurricane Center.
Tropics
The National Hurricane Center is highlighting an area in the northeast Gulf as a potential area of development over the next few days. None of the models are getting too excited about this system, however. Regardless it is unlikely to have any meaningful impact on our weather here in Texas. Beyond this, the tropics appear to be quiet.
