In brief: In today’s post we talk about our anomalously warm start to March weather, and look ahead to increased rain chances this weekend. Unfortunately, there are still some details to iron out there.
March (temperature) madness
Generally, March is my favorite month of the year weather-wise in Houston. Our temperatures are not too hot, and not too cold. During the first part of the month the average high is typically around 70 degrees, and the average low is is 50 degrees. We usually have not yet reached the spring storm season. However this March is starting out quite a bit warmer than usual. And for the next 7 to 10 days we can expect to see highs in the low- to mid-80s, with very warm nights. If you’re wondering when March might start to feel like March again, the models do take a pretty decisive turn toward the chillier side about nine days from now, but until then, it will feel like late April outside, especially at night.
Tuesday
Today will bring a slight chance of light showers this morning, perhaps 10 percent, before our mostly cloudy skies give way to partly sunny conditions this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the low- to mid-80s, with temperatures depending on the extent of afternoon sunshine between 3 and 5 pm. With dewpoints in the mid- to upper-60s, it will feel moderately sticky outside.
Rodeo weather
It won’t quite be hold-on-to-your-hat weather at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this afternoon, but we will see winds gust up to about 25 mph from the south this afternoon, and it will still be breezy during the early evening hours. Temperatures heading into the rodeo will be in the mid-70s, with conditions only a few degrees cooler afterwards. Fog development will be possible after midnight, and this will be the case for much of the rest of the week.
Wednesday
A cold front will be moving into north Texas on Wednesday, but it will stall out well north of the Houston metro area. There is a marginal risk of thunderstorms far north of our area, but in Houston itself I don’t think we’re likely to see much in the way of rainfall or impacts. Rain chances may be on the order of 20 percent, with partly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80s for most. Nighttime lows will drop to around 70 degrees, and I don’t need to say more about warm nights because this is the way it’s going to be through the early part of next week.
Thursday and Friday
These will be a pair of days with cloudy starts and partly sunny afternoons, allowing high temperatures to reach the low- to mid-80s during the afternoon hours. There is a slight chance of rain on Friday.
Saturday, Sunday and Monday
This weekend will continue to see warm weather in the 80s, with fairly muggy air. The question is rainfall. And it is a legitimate question. A front is going to push down closer to the region, and stall somewhere. Depending where this stalls it could bring heavy rainfall to parts of Houston, but if it stops far enough north of the city then Houston is unlikely to see all that much rain. This makes the forecast difficult. In general I think most of the area will see between 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain through Monday, but there is a risk of higher totals than this, or lower totals, and I expect amounts to vary widely. So we just need some more time to iron out a more detailed forecast for you. I know a lot of us are excited about the potential for significant spring-time rainfall, but it’s not a slam dunk yet.
Next week
At some point next week, perhaps on Wednesday, we are likely (although at this distance, not certain) to see a stronger front move all the way through the city and push offshore. This could bring another healthy chance of rainfall before exiting offshore, and push our overnight temperatures down in the vicinity of 50 degrees. We’ll see.
