In brief: After several days of much needed rain, Houston has one more shot at some scattered showers today before the pattern dries up for a while. The weekend, as expected, looks sunny and warm with few concerns beyond humidity.
Thursday
The radar is quiet this morning, but overall the atmosphere above the Houston region remains unsettled. Accordingly, later this morning as temperatures warm up we should see the development of some scattered thunderstorms. A few of these may be briefly heavy, but I certainly expect them to be less disruptive than storms on Wednesday when a few locations recorded in excess of 3 inches of rainfall. Overall rain chances today are probably about 40 percent for areas north of Interstate 10, and 20 percent for areas closer to the coast. Skies this afternoon should become partly sunny, allowing most locations to record high temperatures in the mid-80s. Winds will come from the southeast at about 10 to 15 mph. Lows tonight will only fall into the low 70s.
Friday
High pressure will begin to build by Friday, and this should lower rain chances to isolated showers, or about 10 percent area-wide. Otherwise skies will be partly sunny with highs in the mid- to upper-80s for most locations. Nights will remain rather warm through the weekend, into next week.
Saturday and Sunday
There are a ton of outdoor activities planned for this weekend, from sitting on the beach to an IRONMAN competition to festivals to long bike rides. The good news is that we’re highly confident in the forecast due to high pressure. Saturday will be partly sunny, and Sunday should be mostly sunny, with both days producing daytime temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. It’s going to feel fairly humid outside, but it won’t be nearly so humid as we are going to get latter this summer. Both days will see modest winds from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph, with perhaps some slightly higher gusts. With all the sunshine and higher sun angle, please don’t forget the sunscreen for extended outdoor activities.
Next week
Monday through Wednesday will see continued warm and humid weather, with highs remaining in the mid- to upper-80s. However days will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies instead of full sunshine. By Wednesday or so a weak front will approach and possibly move into the area. This will start to increase rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. It may also eventually bring some slightly drier and cooler air by next weekend, but we’ll have to wait and see about that.
The bottom line is that the remainder of April is going to be rather warm, just like the rest of the month, which has been about 5 degrees above normal. Whether this is a harbinger for summer it is difficult to say. Let us hope not.
“The trouble with weather forecasting is that it’s right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.” — Patrick Young
Personally, I do not think the current April warmth is a harbinger of things to come. In 2021 we did not have a single 100 degree day. In 2023 we had dozens of them with almost every day in August topping out at 100 or higher.
It all depends on where the summer high pressure decides to camp out. If it is over the Southeast we will have a less hot and humid pattern as we get moist flow from the Gulf. If the high camps out above us have your A/C repair man on speed dial and an extra capacitor for your compressor on hand…
It’s a coin flip. NCEP guidance has above average precip pattern for the southeast and drier for the plains and intermountain west, leaving our region in the middle.
Your description of this summer’s scenarios is nails. Let the death ridge go pound sand.
I think the problem is that the “greater Houston area” is too large to competently cover in a single forecast. Harris County is larger than the state of Rhode Island. Then add in Ft Bend, Waller, Montgomery and Jefferson counties and it is all too much. Usually the forecast here at SCW is correct for at least somewhere in the region but wrong for other areas. Maybe try for something less ambitious like “South of I-10 H-town Weather “ and then consider increasing the area once more consistent accuracy is achieved?
We had quite a bit of rain in the Galleria area but it was soaked up quick. We really needed it!
“Let us hope not.”
So say we all.
This is not a complaint, but I just hope that after Monday’s and yesterday’s rain, by Sunday I’m still able to actually enter my back yard without getting lost among my own grass/plants.
I’m out here of far west Texas (astronomy trip) and the storms that hit you guys rolled through us the day before. Amazing amount of lightening! Anyways, as the storms got around 100 or so miles away from us, with a night vision device we could see an amazing array of sprites and rays a few degrees above the distant (unseen) cloud tops. We could also see ionized(?) arcs up in the atmosphere on some of the more energetic strikes. Was way cool!
oh to have NODs…. I want some but they’re hard to justify. Would love to sit and stargaze with them.
Is there a weather dome over houston? It seems more likely than not, any storms (rain) fizzle out before reaching inside the 610 loop.
There’s a nasty looking storm arc headed towards Houston from the N & W right now. Didn’t anticipate that. Leaving work a little early.
As Sara mentioned, a storm heading in from northwest. There’s a very slight drizzle now up here in Magnolia, plus can here thunder. Mowed a little about 10am, so lawn stuff done. it’s growing a bit dark now – storm should hit here in about 10-15 minutes!!
I am 100% convinced there is a massive cap in place over Houston. This is the 6th or 7th storm system that was slatted to go severe in Houston that didn’t. I’m hoping mama nature is cutting us a break this year.
My radar app just went down. I guess it could be temporary but you keep hearing about govt. things being shut off. Are yall having any trouble?
We use NWS Radar throughout the day – never had an outage.