In brief: Today’s post reviews the Atlantic hurricane season to date, and sets expectations for the remainder for Texas. We also look ahead to a front that will bring slightly cooler weather and increase the likelihood of rainfall for the upcoming holiday weekend.
The Atlantic tropics
It is now late August. Regular readers of this site will know that, although the Atlantic hurricane season lasts through November 30, Texas generally has an earlier shut off date. There are no absolutes in weather, but after late September, the odds of a hurricane striking the state of Texas drop off significantly. So when we are thinking about prime time to be impacted by a hurricane, we have about one month to go.
So far this season Texas has seen minimal tropical activity, a few very modest rain events. However, the next month or so is typically the busiest time of year. After a burst of activity earlier this month with Erin (now gone) and Fernand (weakening), the Atlantic tropics are expected to be fairly quiet over at least the next week or so. In fact, if we look at the broader picture there are several background factors right now, including a large Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough over the Atlantic, that are creating a more hostile background for storms to form and intensify.
This pattern should persist into early September, so we are looking good for a bit. However, I still think there is a solid window in mid- and late-September when our region will be vulnerable to hurricanes. So yes, things are looking good. But for Texas, the Atlantic hurricane season is not yet over.
Tuesday
For a shining moment on Monday dewpoints in parts of Houston dropped briefly below 60 degrees, but that slightly drier air is now gone. Now, background moisture levels are rising and this will return us to an environment more favorable for rain. Chances today won’t be overly high, less than one-in-three for most locations, with the better chances close to the coast. Overall accumulations will be, for the most part, slight. With mostly sunny skies expect high temperatures this afternoon in the mid-90s, with a few locations further inland reaching the upper 90s. Lows tonight will be warm, in the upper 70s.
Wednesday
Rain chances will increase to about 50 percent on Wednesday, and this should help to keep temperatures in the vicinity of the low- to mid-90s. Accumulations look to be modest, measured in the low tenths of an inch for areas that receive rain, or less.
Thursday
It looks like our likelihood of rain will back off a bit on Thursday, perhaps to around 30 percent. Expect highs in the low- to mid-90s.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
A weak front will sag into the Houston region this weekend, and bring an increased likelihood of rain along with lower temperatures. Rain chances will be about 50 percent on Friday, peak on Saturday above 50 percent, and drop back a little bit on Sunday. These showers will be hit or miss, so if you have outdoor activities there’s still a chance they’re going to be fine. But you’ll definitely want to have a contingency plan. Through the weekend most of the region should pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, but I’m sure we will have some higher bullseyes. The front will bring with it dynamics to support higher rainfall rates, so some locations may quickly pick up 3 inches or so. We’ll be keeping a close eye on things.
In terms of temperatures we can expect highs in the lower 90s on Friday, and perhaps the upper 80s on Saturday and Sunday. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny.
Labor Day and next week
For our holiday next Monday we should see a continuation of the weekend-like weather, with highs in the upper 80s and perhaps a 40 percent chance of rain. Those kinds of temperatures for Labor Day weekend are definitely cooler than normal, so although the front is not going to feel “cold,” it’s likely going to have a meaningful impact on temperatures. Most of next week should remain in the vicinity of 90 degrees, with additional rain chances later in the week.
