In brief: As we approach our typical peak of summer heat, we’ll be seeing an uptick in temperatures through the week. We should see potentially upper-90s to near 100 in spots by late week before some shower chances re-enter the forecast. Even hotter weather is possible next week.
Houston’s summer heat typically peaks between July 29th and August 12th, when our average high temperatures sits at 96° and our average low temperature is 76 degrees. The actual peak date is probably around August 5th. So, we are nearing the top of the mountain, and this week may prove to include our hottest weather of summer.
Today through Wednesday
We will start the week with heat and humidity that slowly builds. Highs will push into the mid and perhaps upper 90s by midweek. Thunderstorm chances, while not quite zero each day are fairly low. Morning lows are likely to be in the upper 70s.
Thursday and Friday
I have a feeling that Thursday may be the hottest day of the week. And if not, then it will probably be Friday.
The National Weather Service’s experimental HeatRisk product puts our area in high risk on both days, with a strong edge to Thursday right now. Either way, expect some of the hottest weather of summer so far this week.
By the time we get to Friday, we may see showers or thunderstorms re-enter the forecast, depending on the track of a tropical wave in the Gulf. No development is expected, but a similar track to last week’s Invest 93L is possible, which could keep most of the rain to our east again — or a somewhat more southerly track could bring higher rain chances to our area by Friday. Something we’ll watch through the week, but the main takeaway here is that, again, no development is expected.
Weekend and beyond
Once that wave passes, we should sort of resume a typical summer pattern of heat, humidity, and slight daily storm chances in the area. It does appear that a very strong ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere is going to establish over the Southern Plains next week.
We may be on the periphery of it enough to get continued shower chances each afternoon, but if this flexes much further, we may see even hotter weather next week, perhaps the hottest of summer. Stay tuned.
I enjoy the signs on the beltway saying “MAJOR RAIN EVENTS THROUGH SATURDAY” and i’d like to ask them, who hurt you. Lets not even talk about the “MAJOR STORM FORMING IN GULF BE PREPARED” last week
On a positive note “Fall Day” is only 60 days or so away (plus or minus 14 days) or so…
We can make it!
I’d say September is a write off.
2nd week of October is when we can look to fake fall, then maybe window opening weather after that.
Agree. To keep my own hope in check, I count September as part of summer. October is the first month that I consider might possibly be pleasant. If we do perchance get a nice day or two in September, it’s a most welcome surprise!
I find your weather reports to be much more accurate ,science based, and educational than the ridiculous rants of the hurricane TikTok crowd. Thank you both for the lack of exclamation points in your reports. Do you guys have any thoughts on local and world-wide effects of the massive injection of water vapor and basic elements injected into the upper atmosphere by the Tonga volcano two years ago? Does ‘what goes up must come down’ apply to recent flood events?
This isn’t a sports league. If you were a teenager, you’d be on it as much as your peers. Yes, the internet (coupled with an underfunded and evermore inaccessible education system) has flattened discussions on almost any topic, but at least people aren’t screeching on tik tok about sports teams, and or celebrities. To be vaguely aware of weather is progress compared to what it could be. If it makes you feel any better, log off and renew your library card?
@other Ashley – i just saw your bday wish from Friday. Thank you!! 😉 and thanks Eric and Matt for your continued work.
😊 very welcome
Hope your day was awesome 🌹
Well we almost had an old school summer without an extreme and prolonged heatwave. Oh well maybe when the next ice age sets in 🤷♂️
Yeah 🌰
July 19th
Record high: 102 in 1980
Record low: 68 in 1974
July 20th
Record high: 102 in 2000
Record low: 69 in 1976
July 21st today
Record high: 101 in 2000
Record low 65: in 1989
Will we know by tomorrow whether the system that forms in the Gulf this week is a big rain problem for Houston?
It’ll be ok, MattJ – you’ll see
Don’t worry.
For the forecast on the Tropical wave we must check with the Tiktok Hive mind! It is truly the most accurate model. /sarcasm
I like the 1st temperature graph. It goes well with my own non-scientific look over the past 40 years. I always thought our average 1st teaser front was 2nd-3rd week of September and I cling to the arrival. The days are getting shorter!