The good news is that we should have a much quieter day today. We will start to feel the heat creep up however with temperatures likely hitting the mid-90s this afternoon. Yes, look for a handful of pop-up storms later this afternoon, but it should pale in comparison to Thursday’s action.
It continues to look as though a weak little disturbance will pass across Texas tomorrow, disrupting the growth of the hot ridge of high pressure out of Mexico and bringing a bumped up chance of storms, especially north of Houston. While I don’t think storms will have quite the punch in Houston as they did yesterday, some of these storms could easily be on the stronger side, so if you have outdoor plans Saturday afternoon, keep this in mind. The Storm Prediction Center has Houston proper split between a marginal and slight risk of storms, with the higher risk north and lesser risk south.
We are again mainly concerned about the potential for damaging winds. There’s a good chance we’ll have a quick updated post for you tomorrow morning to better time and assess things. Outside of that, look for sun, clouds, and highs in the mid-90s with morning lows in the 70s.
Sunday through Tuesday
The pattern should stabilizes Sunday onward, dropping our rain chances down to about 10 percent or so and leading to temperatures in the mid to upper-90s. Some morning lows could be near 80 degrees. It’ll feel a bit rough. Again, practice heat precautions during this time, as we’re not yet quite acclimated to this sort of summer heat.
Wednesday through Friday
Temperatures should continue to creep upward later next week, with our peak odds of 100 degree weather coming on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. At this point, we don’t see anything meaningful enough to wreck this forecast, so expect that the worst of the heat is yet to come.
Lastly: Yes, we are aware of a certain operational weather model frequently showing a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf in about 10+ days. Make sure you’re following our companion site, The Eyewall for more detail on the entire tropics, including things like this in fantasyland. Spoiler alert, we don’t believe it to be a legitimate concern.
Before we get into the heat, we still have a couple things to discuss, including the potential for a few stronger storms today. We’ll hit on that, but then we’ll assess the upcoming heat, how long it may last, and how hot it may actually get.
For all intents and purposes, today may be like the last couple days have been in Houston: Hazy, sunny, then afternoon pop up storms. The haze is primarily a result of agricultural burning in Central America and southern Mexico. It does appear that air quality readings are a bit better this morning than they have been this week. Ground ozone will again be an issue today due to sunshine, warm weather, and light winds.
Today’s forecast is a bit more difficult than normal for this time of year. We have a lot of “juice” for thunderstorms, including healthy instability, a little bit of wind shear, and a lot of chaotic boundaries that may interact with one another this afternoon and evening.
We will probably see storms begin to pop up after 12 to 2 PM as they have on most afternoons this week. From there, it’s very difficult to predict the exact evolution of things. Storms may interact with each other, in addition to old boundaries sitting over the area. We may also add in a cluster of new storms coming in from the north and west as well. Whatever the case, it would appear that some of us will be in for some stormy weather late this afternoon and early this evening. Have your umbrella and a place to sneak indoors available. If you have any late afternoon outdoor activities, have a way to get warnings and move inside if you hear thunder We saw numerous lightning strikes seemingly out of the blue yesterday afternoon near my house before storms had actually developed.
Aside from storms, look for highs generally in the low-90s today.
We will begin to see high pressure in the upper atmosphere build out of Mexico and into Texas tomorrow. This will allow for most places away from the coast to touch the mid-90s or even a bit hotter. Morning lows will be generally in the 70s.
Rain chances will again be in the forecast, lower than today but not near zero. Some isolated stronger storms may again be possible, especially east of Houston toward Beaumont and Port Arthur.
We interrupt this developing heat wave with a quick interlude. A weak disturbance will disrupt the burgeoning ridge of high pressure over Texas and probably increase rain chances a bit on Saturday afternoon or evening, especially north of I-10. Most places will probably stay dry, but there will be some areas that see downpours. We should still manage to get into the 90s on Saturday, after morning lows in the mid-70s.
Sunday through Tuesday
Hot and humid. Rain chances won’t quite be zero, but they’ll be exceedingly low. High temperatures on these days will be well into the 90s with morning lows in the mid to upper-70s, if not near 80 degrees in spots.
When we start talking upper 90s by day and near 80 by night, that’s when you can start running into heat stress issues. Please make sure elderly, young children, and vulnerable populations (and pets!) are tended to next week. Also, you too! Our bodies have experienced a pretty pleasant late May and June by Houston standards. We have not acclimated to true summer heat yet. This will hit us pretty good. Drink water, wear sunscreen, and take it easy outside.
How long does this last?
If you look at upper level maps, it appears we might have a brief chance at better rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday of next week as a weak trough flattens the ridge some. But it is expected to then reload heading toward next weekend, so it will be awhile we think.
How hot can it get?
I guess the better question is: Can we do 100 degrees? The answer is yes. The National Blend of Models has us at about a 65 percent chance of hitting 100 degrees next Thursday, Friday, or Saturday. But that’s not guaranteed. Things that could wreck that chance include soil moisture, more numerous afternoon storms than expected, and high clouds from an El Niño-driven stronger than normal southern jet stream.
Soil moisture is running near normal or even slightly above normal in our area. A drier ground heats up more efficiently, but more moisture in the ground can slow down that heating process a bit. Thus, this could be good for knocking a degree or so off temperatures next week. So maybe instead of 101°, we end up near 99-100° or so.
The axis of high pressure for much of next week is centered over and just west of Hill Country. While Houston isn’t exactly on the periphery of that, there is always the chance that models are underdoing our rain chances some. Higher rain chances may yield slightly lower temperatures.
Lastly, the jet stream has been humming over Texas and Mexico lately. This is likely tied back to the developing El Niño in the Pacific. Anytime you have an active Pacific jet like this, you run the risk of high clouds. Should we get more of those than expected, look for a couple degrees knocked off high temps next week, but perhaps a degree or two added to nighttime lows. This would be true more so early on than later next week.
With all that said, I think there’s probably a better than 50 to 60 percent chance we hit 100 degrees next week, with multiple 98-99 degree days peppered in between. Either way, hot. Very hot.
Happy Friday! We continue to see humidity running a little below average for this time of year in Houston, which may be <laughs mockingly> hard to believe, but it’s true! This weekend, we’ll see shower chances slowly re-enter the forecast, especially Sunday, as we heat up temps to 90 or a bit hotter.
In the tropics, yesterday started hurricane season and right on cue Tropical Depression 2 formed. It is not a concern for Texas and will just help to offer enhanced rainfall in Florida and Cuba. Read all about it on our new companion site, The Eyewall. Thanks to all who commented, liked, shared, and subscribed to our posts there. Keep spreading the word. We’ll be using The Eyewall to cover the entirety of the Atlantic basin just like we cover Houston here, a duty to which we remain fully committed!
Look for sun, minimal rain chances, and temperatures around 90 degrees, give or take. We continue to battle air quality issues, and today is (again) an ozone action day, so please use caution if you’re in a sensitive group. We may see some improvement over the weekend. I don’t know that this is abnormal, but it sure has felt excessive since early May, something we know you’ve noticed.
Rain chances are not zero, but they are rather low today. Still, you can never entirely rule out an isolated downpour in June.
For the most part, Saturday should be a repeat of today. However, rain chances may be more like 10 to 15 percent versus the 10 percent or less that they are today. This may be especially true north of Houston. Expect morning lows in the upper-60s to low-70s, with a daytime high of 90 or better in most spots.
Rain chances bump up for Sunday late morning or afternoon. Look for sun, some clouds, and temperatures near 90, after a morning low near 70 degrees or a touch warmer. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are likely to fire through the day, with some areas seeing an inch or two of rain and others seeing nothing. Coverage should be somewhere at least in the 30 to 40 percent range.
Look for additional isolated to scattered showers and storms on Monday and Tuesday. Things should gradually ease back to slight, hit or miss rain chances by later in the week. So your best odds of rain right now are Sunday through Tuesday. But even then, some of us may not see much, while others may get a few rounds of showers or storms. It will be an irregular pattern of rain. Look for temps to lull a bit early in the week due to clouds and showers, before warming back up later in the week. Rain chances should back off some after Tuesday or Wednesday, but we’ll see if that trend holds.
Good morning! Memorial Day is starting off with some downpours south and east of Houston, and that will become more common as the day wears on.
Some of these showers have been heavy, producing as much as 1 to 2 inches of rain over the last hour at Kemah, for example. Additionally, there have been reports of waterspouts over the bays and Gulf. Just stay aware if you’ll be on the water today.
As we move into afternoon, watch these showers expand north and west. Not everyone will see rain, but those of you that do may see a healthy amount in a short time, in addition to lightning. If you hear thunder today, make sure you get indoors, as periodically, storms like this can produce lightning rather far away from the storm itself. Those that see downpours today could pick up 1 to 2 inches or even a bit more. Others will see nothing.
Storms should subside after sunset, but I am thinking we’ll see a little continued activity north and east of Houston for a time, while new showers will probably develop after 1 to 2 AM near the coast or bays. More scattered showers and storms will be likely tomorrow, but again some will get a soaking, while others get nothing.
The forecast for the rest of the week looks pretty calm, less rainy than it appeared a couple days ago. Temperatures will be in the 80s the next two days, but by Wednesday we’ll probably be back to 90 or better each day, with lows in the 70s. That said, the humidity continues to look at or slightly below normal, so while hot it may not be quite as oppressive as usual heading into early June. More tomorrow. Enjoy the day!