A rare winter storm arrives in Houston tonight: Expect snow, some sleet, and icy roads by Tuesday morning

In brief: Houston is less than a day away from the onset of a winter storm that is likely to cripple transportation around the region. We’re still expecting primarily snow, with impacts on roadways through Wednesday morning. Expect two additional updates today on Space City Weather as we share what we know, when we know it.

The icebox has come to Texas this morning. (Weather Bell)

Cold update

As anticipated, temperatures this morning have fallen a couple of degrees below freezing across the metro area. Fortunately, you still have today to prepare for a winter storm that will very probably bring more snow into the Houston region than we have experienced in at least two decades. The city is likely going to shut down from this evening through Wednesday morning, and it really should do so because we are ill-equipped to handle this kind of winter storm.

Before jumping into the post, I also want to thank the organizers of the Houston Marathon, as well as all of the thousands of volunteers and tens of thousands of spectators who make this such a special event. Yes, it was cold on the course on Sunday, but honestly after a mile or two the colder air felt great. It also feels great to be able to set aside my running shoes for awhile.

Monday

It is MLK Day, which honors the legacy of the civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. For kids, it’s a day off of school which, in addition to ‘snow’ days on Tuesday and Wednesday, makes for a five-day weekend. Not bad. It’s almost enough for me to wish I was seven years old again. Almost.

Anyway, today will be a brisk day with increasing clouds and high temperatures of around 40 degrees. A gusty easterly wind will add to the misery. We’ll see a slight chance of showers by around sunset this evening, but for the most part this should be rain in the Houston metro area. Please do plan to be wherever you’re sheltering from the storm this evening by about 8 pm for northern areas such as The Woodlands, and midnight at the absolute latest for central and southern parts of the Houston area.

Monday night and Tuesday

By around midnight temperatures in the region will reach freezing for most of Houston, and light rain will begin to transition to snow, sleet, and possibly freezing rain. The intensity of these snow showers or sleet will pick up on Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will drop to between 25 and 30 degrees for most of the region.

Most likely snow totals in the Houston area. (National Weather Service)

So what will you wake up to? I anticipate that most of the area will see 1 to 4 inches of snow, with some sleet mixed in by mid-morning on Tuesday. We still have some serious questions about the amount of precipitation, and I agree with Matt that there is a decent chance that some parts of Houston receive up to 4 to 6 inches. (Currently the favored region for this is probably along and south of Interstate 10, but we shall see). In any case, this should be wintry setup for which Houston-area roads are not prepared for.

Temperature wise, Tuesday is going to be interesting. The precipitation will end by around noon, and I expect we’ll see clearing skies during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will probably briefly get above freezing during the afternoon hours, and this may cause some of the snow and ice on the roads to briefly melt. However this window will be brief, as temperatures drop to below freezing by around sunset again. It will be a very cold night with slick streets.

Low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

How cold will it get? That will depend on the extent of snow cover where you are. I think most of Houston will fall to around 15 to 25 degrees, so a hard freeze all around expect perhaps for the immediate coast, such as Galveston Island. Air temperatures will likely reach above freezing at some point on Wednesday around noon. Then, sunny skies and temperatures in the upper-30s, at least, should help to clear roadways during the afternoon hours. By this time it should be possible to resume somewhat normal activities around the region. But we’ll need to see how the mobility situation plays out.

Thursday and beyond

Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the mid-20s in Houston, so another cold night. However by Thursday afternoon we’ll be well into then 40s. A light freeze is possible again Thursday night. The weekend looks mild, with temperatures climbing back into the 60s. A chance of rain returns by around Sunday, or so.

Best sledding in Houston

It’s kind of insane, but we’ve reached the point where we can legitimately talk about sledding here. Now Houston is a pretty flat city, so there are not a lot of great hills. But there are a few, such as the hill at Miller Outdoor Theater in Hermann Park. However, when choosing a locale for sledding on Tuesday (and possibly Wednesday) it would be foolish to choose a spot you have to drive to. Since we’re not going to be driving around on Tuesday, are we? In reality the best place for you to sled in Houston the steepest hill you can walk to.

Which doesn’t lead down into a pond or a bayou.

Update schedule

We plan on having two additional updates today. One will come this afternoon, probably around 3 or 4 pm; and another later this evening when we should be able to provide real-time information on the developing winter storm.

89 thoughts on “A rare winter storm arrives in Houston tonight: Expect snow, some sleet, and icy roads by Tuesday morning”

  1. What about the mid-level frontogenesis potentially going farther offshore, that Matt eluded to on twitter last night

  2. Is this an error ? โ€œ Currently the favored region for this is probably along and south of Interstate 10, but we shall see)โ€

    • I don’t think so. If you take a look at the included (forecasted) snowfall map, it shows larger numbers near the coast. Which is very odd!

      • In ’06(?) Galveston had a few inches of snow while The Woodlands had little or no snow

        • Yes! I l think it was ’04 though only because my son was a newborn. Any way I remember Galveston had so much they said it was lake effect. That was wild! We shall see this time.

    • If the moisture that is producing the snow is being drawn up from the Gulf, it makes sense that areas near the coast that are below freezing will get the most snow, even if points further north have colder temperatures.

      • As of last night, forecasts showed heavier snow away from the coast with more sleet or freezing rain near the coast. The coast was always going to get precipitation, but the forecasts I saw over the weekend didn’t include a lot of snow.

      • Just like the 04โ€™ Christmas snow. Drier dewpoint air up north, but more moisture closer to coast with slightly higher Dewpoints.

  3. “However this window will be brief, as temperatures drop to below freezing by around sunrise again.”
    Did you mean sunset?

      • He does mean sunset though in this case, when referring to the potential during the day on Tuesday for temperatures above freezing. Once the sun sets tuesday evening, that window will close, and anything that melted will re-freeze quickly as tuesday night into wednesday morning will be the most brutally cold of the coming period.

      • With clear skies and calm winds, also known as “maximum cooling conditions” but sometimes the winds can shift out of the south, which causes temperatures to warm up overnight instead of cool down.

  4. “Currently the favored region for this is probably along and south of Interstate 10, but we shall see”. Now I have always figured that I-10 is a convenient reference point that nearly all readers will be familiar with, but wonder if there was a reason that I-10 was built where it is. Maybe the designers knew that this was on or near a weather zone line? Any idea whether it’s just convenient or if the original path is related to typical weather? The design must be from the 1950s and probably followed older highway paths, so could have been selected over 100 years ago. The Bay, of course, sets the minimum northern path.

    • The railroad and Old Katy Road were there long before the Interstate. In fact the route probably goes back to the original wagon path between Harrisburg/ San Jacinto and San Antonio in the 1830s. I don’t think anyone had weather in mind, just the fastest route between two points!

      The actual transition zone between the East Texas Piney Woods and the Post Oak prairie is further north. You can see it around FM 2920 and Roberts Cemetery Road between Cypress, Tomball, and Magnolia. I-10 runs solidly through prairie.

      • I have walked the Texas ecosystem portion of the natural science museum many times with my kiddo and was always curious of the actual zones relative to communities. This is super interesting! Thanks for sharing!

  5. Glad you added the part about ponds and bayous. The only hills we have in walking distance are into ditches

  6. ๐Ÿคฃ was just thinking โ€œwe live next to a bayouโ€ before that last sentence. (Was never truly planning on sledding into a bayou)

  7. Congrats on completing the marathon, Eric! Thanks to both of you for all your hard work to get us through the storm. FYI – Katy is not evacuating ๐Ÿ˜†

  8. Thanks to all of you at SCW for these updates. And congrats Eric on completing another marathon.

  9. Eric and Matt, Y’all staying on top of things makes us all safer. Great job and thanks. Joe in Livingston.

  10. Thank you for working to keep the community safe. You already put in long hours to give us an accurate forecast but we truly appreciate the extra time during the extreme weather situations!

  11. Letโ€™s recap the last 9 months. It starts last May with a Derecho. Then we were visited by Hurricane Beryl in July. August through December were unbearably hot when compared to normal and now we start out 2025 out well below normal with a potential mini-blizzard set to paralyze the city.

    If you are new here welcome to Houstonโ€ฆ

    • One of the reasons Iโ€™m leaving when I retire. Finding something more moderate and downright dull.

    • This is heavily playing into the โ€œif Houston gets hit by a hurricane, we get snowโ€ ๐Ÿ˜ โ€ฆ

  12. Thank you for all the extra updates. This is really scary to me as my pipes burst last time and was a huge mess. Thank you again!!

    • Only in Houston could a few inches snowfall coupled with light to moderate breezes be categorized as a “near blizzard”. Only in Houston could temperatures dropping to perhaps the low 20s on Wednesday morning be categorized as an “extreme cold watch”. Houstonians just don’t know cold, and they certainly do not understand snow.

      • Only in Houston does does odd transplants move here for whatever reason, that natives canโ€™t figure out why anyway. And only in Houston do the transplants complain and whine about everything about here. Transplants just donโ€™t know Texas or Houston.

      • Right on all counts. But you tell only half of the story. The terminology seems exaggerated (though I see more straightforward language on this site), while the local vulnerability is real.

        First, having grown up in New Orleans, I can say that the same weather terminology would be used there to describe the same conditions–so it’s not just Houston, but at least one other city in the South. Possibly more cities, because over time, we have rarely experienced the same winter weather that’s so common in other parts of the country. To me, it’s not ethical to exaggerate to motivate people to take weather events seriously, but I don’t get to make those choices. However I do wonder if that’s what’s going on with these terms.

        And that North-South discrepancy in weather experience means that a) the odds are that most locals have little or no practice in driving in hazardous wintry conditions, and b) cities like Houston that are unaccustomed to serious snow or serious wintry mixes may not have invested a lot in de-icing substances for roads, snow plows, or other equipment that I would bet you’d find in the North–where it’s clearly worth the investment because they can count on needing it during most winters.

        Communal experience and infrastructure are everything. To put it differently: Houston is an apple and Boston is an orange. No basis for comparison.

      • Iโ€™m going to remember the next few days a the Great Snowpocolypse of 2025, to the amusement of all my relatives north of the 35th parallel (which is about all of them).

      • Only up north is it a heat advisory with an air temperature of 85 with a heat index of 92. Only northerners freak out when it hits above 90 degrees for one day. God forbid it ever hits 100 in Minnesota. You northerners just don’t know heat and you certainly don’t understand humidity.

        See us weak southerners who can’t handle winter can turn that same logic around on you northerners during summer heatwaves in Texas.

  13. Thank Yaโ€™ll for the timely and accurate info as always.
    I know the kids and some adults are looking forward to staying home and the snow.
    Retired Educator in Liberty

  14. I hope this is not going to be a bust like the February 2011 snow forcast was. They were pretty much guaranteeing that we were going to receive a blanket of snow over the whole region but a weather balloon failed to launch in South Texas which would have noticed the incoming thin layer of warm air in the middle of the atmosphere which melted the snow as it fell towards the ground. It just turned into a freezing rain event that led to multiple wrecks in Houston.

    • I’m hoping for a replay of the 2004 Christmas Eve snowstorm. Freezing rain is just about the worst as that can bring down power lines and tree limbs (which also bring down power lines). And of course, freezing rain causes lots accidents because no one here (or anywhere, for that matter) knows how to drive on black ice.

  15. Thank yall so much for all you do!!!! We appreciate all the updates and the effort yall put into keeping us safe and informed. Thank you!!!

  16. Thanks; just tried to log in, but IA says no. We get, enjoy, and rec everything we can however we can from yโ€™all. Thanks!

  17. Stay safe everyone.

    So, in a way, the White Christmas I was hoping for, except I have to work all day from home and we had to shut down a city of seven million to get it. Not worth it. Iโ€™ll file this one under wanting it to rain and wanting the rain to stop, both of which have had negative consequences in the past (floods and droughts).

  18. To your ” In reality the best place for you to sled in Houston the steepest hill you can walk to. Which doesnโ€™t lead down into a pond or a bayou.” I will add:

    Drive as fast on ice & snow as you’re willing to crash!

  19. There was a white frost on the road bed of Westheimer this morning inside the beltway towards the Galleria at 9:00. Sign of things to come!

  20. Double-checked the forecast with the Anglican Kalendar and with John Keats, and it pans out:

    St. Agnesโ€™ Eveโ€”Ah, bitter chill it was!
    The owl, for all his feathers, was a-coldโ€ฆ

  21. After this cold stretch of the next week, will the winter weather probably be over for this year? Would love any farther-out forecast predictions possible to help with outdoor planting schedules.

    • There was a phrase I’ve heard that went something like “Don’t plant your garden until the rodeo leaves town”.

      it’s only the middle of Jan, we’ve got plenty of time for more cold weather.

      • In England it was always: “Don’t cast a clout till May it out”. That wouldn’t work around here though. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  22. We are hoping for snow in Conroe. My 4 year old will be thrilled. We haven’t even hinted it may snow.

    • You don’t want thundersnow – winds that strong could take out trees, lines & cause roof damage. You get the thunder, lightning and then the ice with the warm/cold air mix. It could snarl up everything. We don’t want that kind of ice accumulation.

        • Back 100 years ago when you saw it the atmosphere wasn’t so juiced up.

          It takes a lot of instability to create it, so let’s just NOT.

          • “100 years ago, when you saw it, the atmosphere wasn’t so juiced up.”

            Um, have you ever heard of the Great Blizzard of 1899, the Great Lakes Storm of 1913, the Knickerbocker Storm of 1922, etc.?

  23. When I worked at the University of Arkansas, I could always tell the Houston kids in the snow for two reasons:

    They didn’t own a proper coat.
    They slid into cars/rocks/ponds/traffic at the bottom of (inappropriate) sledding hills because they didn’t think about how they would stop. Every broken bone during a snowstorm belonged to a Texan!

    So please heed the warning and choose your hills carefully. ๐Ÿ™‚

  24. Hi –

    What is your best guess about whether IAH will be open Wednesday a.m.? I will be trying to get home from Antarctica (where in some areas it is warmer than it is in Houston).
    Thank you.

  25. The maps graphics suggest “lake effect” snow emanating from Galveston Bay. Am I reading too much into it or could that even happen?

  26. Looks like the temps are moderating. Instead of 15-20 it’s looking like the coldest will be 25-29.

  27. “We plan on having two additional updates today. One will come this afternoon, probably around 3 or 4 pm; and another later this evening when we should be able to provide real-time information on the developing winter storm.”

    Hmm. Well, no additional update(s) yet, now 5:30pm. Anticipate only one later this evening, I suspect

    High temp for today here in Magnolia was predicted to be 42 degrees (3-4 weather websites) … it hasn’t risen above 36 degrees.

    Not looking good up this way.

  28. “We plan on having two additional updates today. One will come this afternoon, probably around 3 or 4 pm; and another later this evening when we should be able to provide real-time information on the developing winter storm.”

    Hmm. Well, no additional update(s) yet, now 5:30pm. Anticipate only one later this evening, I suspect

    High temp for today here in Magnolia was predicted to be 42 degrees (3-4 weather websites) … it hasn’t risen above 36 degrees.

    Not looking good up this way.

  29. It’s after 6:00 pm and no update. Call me shocked.

    I guess our resident semi-meteorlogical, climate-change libturd’s are in mourning over certain non-MLK events today.

    I’ve noticed that their bloviating blog posts have been noticeably absent of any detailed (i.e. hourly) temperature information. No graphs or charts depicting temperature trends over the next few days.

    Perhaps they need to purchase more content from the King of Weather……Weather Bell Analytics. ๐Ÿ˜‰

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