In brief: Houston is less than a day away from the onset of a winter storm that is likely to cripple transportation around the region. We’re still expecting primarily snow, with impacts on roadways through Wednesday morning. Expect two additional updates today on Space City Weather as we share what we know, when we know it.
Cold update
As anticipated, temperatures this morning have fallen a couple of degrees below freezing across the metro area. Fortunately, you still have today to prepare for a winter storm that will very probably bring more snow into the Houston region than we have experienced in at least two decades. The city is likely going to shut down from this evening through Wednesday morning, and it really should do so because we are ill-equipped to handle this kind of winter storm.
Before jumping into the post, I also want to thank the organizers of the Houston Marathon, as well as all of the thousands of volunteers and tens of thousands of spectators who make this such a special event. Yes, it was cold on the course on Sunday, but honestly after a mile or two the colder air felt great. It also feels great to be able to set aside my running shoes for awhile.
Monday
It is MLK Day, which honors the legacy of the civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. For kids, it’s a day off of school which, in addition to ‘snow’ days on Tuesday and Wednesday, makes for a five-day weekend. Not bad. It’s almost enough for me to wish I was seven years old again. Almost.
Anyway, today will be a brisk day with increasing clouds and high temperatures of around 40 degrees. A gusty easterly wind will add to the misery. We’ll see a slight chance of showers by around sunset this evening, but for the most part this should be rain in the Houston metro area. Please do plan to be wherever you’re sheltering from the storm this evening by about 8 pm for northern areas such as The Woodlands, and midnight at the absolute latest for central and southern parts of the Houston area.
Monday night and Tuesday
By around midnight temperatures in the region will reach freezing for most of Houston, and light rain will begin to transition to snow, sleet, and possibly freezing rain. The intensity of these snow showers or sleet will pick up on Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will drop to between 25 and 30 degrees for most of the region.
So what will you wake up to? I anticipate that most of the area will see 1 to 4 inches of snow, with some sleet mixed in by mid-morning on Tuesday. We still have some serious questions about the amount of precipitation, and I agree with Matt that there is a decent chance that some parts of Houston receive up to 4 to 6 inches. (Currently the favored region for this is probably along and south of Interstate 10, but we shall see). In any case, this should be wintry setup for which Houston-area roads are not prepared for.
Temperature wise, Tuesday is going to be interesting. The precipitation will end by around noon, and I expect we’ll see clearing skies during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will probably briefly get above freezing during the afternoon hours, and this may cause some of the snow and ice on the roads to briefly melt. However this window will be brief, as temperatures drop to below freezing by around sunset again. It will be a very cold night with slick streets.
Wednesday
How cold will it get? That will depend on the extent of snow cover where you are. I think most of Houston will fall to around 15 to 25 degrees, so a hard freeze all around expect perhaps for the immediate coast, such as Galveston Island. Air temperatures will likely reach above freezing at some point on Wednesday around noon. Then, sunny skies and temperatures in the upper-30s, at least, should help to clear roadways during the afternoon hours. By this time it should be possible to resume somewhat normal activities around the region. But we’ll need to see how the mobility situation plays out.
Thursday and beyond
Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the mid-20s in Houston, so another cold night. However by Thursday afternoon we’ll be well into then 40s. A light freeze is possible again Thursday night. The weekend looks mild, with temperatures climbing back into the 60s. A chance of rain returns by around Sunday, or so.
Best sledding in Houston
It’s kind of insane, but we’ve reached the point where we can legitimately talk about sledding here. Now Houston is a pretty flat city, so there are not a lot of great hills. But there are a few, such as the hill at Miller Outdoor Theater in Hermann Park. However, when choosing a locale for sledding on Tuesday (and possibly Wednesday) it would be foolish to choose a spot you have to drive to. Since we’re not going to be driving around on Tuesday, are we? In reality the best place for you to sled in Houston the steepest hill you can walk to.
Which doesn’t lead down into a pond or a bayou.
Update schedule
We plan on having two additional updates today. One will come this afternoon, probably around 3 or 4 pm; and another later this evening when we should be able to provide real-time information on the developing winter storm.
What about the mid-level frontogenesis potentially going farther offshore, that Matt eluded to on twitter last night
Today is also Inauguration Day, thank you Lord!
You seem to be lost! This is a post about the weather. Hope this helps!
You just felt like you HAD to say something huh?
Sad.
Is this an error ? “ Currently the favored region for this is probably along and south of Interstate 10, but we shall see)”
Like, downtown and Montrose???? This is along I10.
I don’t think so. If you take a look at the included (forecasted) snowfall map, it shows larger numbers near the coast. Which is very odd!
In ’06(?) Galveston had a few inches of snow while The Woodlands had little or no snow
If the moisture that is producing the snow is being drawn up from the Gulf, it makes sense that areas near the coast that are below freezing will get the most snow, even if points further north have colder temperatures.
As of last night, forecasts showed heavier snow away from the coast with more sleet or freezing rain near the coast. The coast was always going to get precipitation, but the forecasts I saw over the weekend didn’t include a lot of snow.
Just like the 04’ Christmas snow. Drier dewpoint air up north, but more moisture closer to coast with slightly higher Dewpoints.
“However this window will be brief, as temperatures drop to below freezing by around sunrise again.”
Did you mean sunset?
Generally the coldest hour of the day is just before dawn, when heat has been escaping the earth all night.
He does mean sunset though in this case, when referring to the potential during the day on Tuesday for temperatures above freezing. Once the sun sets tuesday evening, that window will close, and anything that melted will re-freeze quickly as tuesday night into wednesday morning will be the most brutally cold of the coming period.
“Currently the favored region for this is probably along and south of Interstate 10, but we shall see”. Now I have always figured that I-10 is a convenient reference point that nearly all readers will be familiar with, but wonder if there was a reason that I-10 was built where it is. Maybe the designers knew that this was on or near a weather zone line? Any idea whether it’s just convenient or if the original path is related to typical weather? The design must be from the 1950s and probably followed older highway paths, so could have been selected over 100 years ago. The Bay, of course, sets the minimum northern path.
Glad you added the part about ponds and bayous. The only hills we have in walking distance are into ditches
🤣 was just thinking “we live next to a bayou” before that last sentence. (Was never truly planning on sledding into a bayou)
Congrats on completing the marathon, Eric! Thanks to both of you for all your hard work to get us through the storm. FYI – Katy is not evacuating 😆
Thanks to all of you at SCW for these updates. And congrats Eric on completing another marathon.
Eric and Matt, Y’all staying on top of things makes us all safer. Great job and thanks. Joe in Livingston.
Thanks for the thorough updates and congratulations on your marathon finish, Eric!
What are the chances of “thunder snow”?
I’ve only experienced it twice in my life, once in high school and once when visiting family for Christmas in the early 90s. It’s really weird.😳
Thank you for working to keep the community safe. You already put in long hours to give us an accurate forecast but we truly appreciate the extra time during the extreme weather situations!
Let’s recap the last 9 months. It starts last May with a Derecho. Then we were visited by Hurricane Beryl in July. August through December were unbearably hot when compared to normal and now we start out 2025 out well below normal with a potential mini-blizzard set to paralyze the city.
If you are new here welcome to Houston…
Gotta love it. It keeps things interesting. Never a dull moment with the weather in SE Texas.
One of the reasons I’m leaving when I retire. Finding something more moderate and downright dull.
Thank you for all the extra updates. This is really scary to me as my pipes burst last time and was a huge mess. Thank you again!!
Fix yalls blog. Comments disappear all the time
Thank you so much. I love your posts each day – good info with some humor! Stay warm!
I lost my middle finger to the frost … and all in darkness. You don’t know cold.
Only in Houston could a few inches snowfall coupled with light to moderate breezes be categorized as a “near blizzard”. Only in Houston could temperatures dropping to perhaps the low 20s on Wednesday morning be categorized as an “extreme cold watch”. Houstonians just don’t know cold, and they certainly do not understand snow.
Thank Ya’ll for the timely and accurate info as always.
I know the kids and some adults are looking forward to staying home and the snow.
Retired Educator in Liberty
I hope this is not going to be a bust like the February 2011 snow forcast was. They were pretty much guaranteeing that we were going to receive a blanket of snow over the whole region but a weather balloon failed to launch in South Texas which would have noticed the incoming thin layer of warm air in the middle of the atmosphere which melted the snow as it fell towards the ground. It just turned into a freezing rain event that led to multiple wrecks in Houston.
Thank yall so much for all you do!!!! We appreciate all the updates and the effort yall put into keeping us safe and informed. Thank you!!!
Stay safe everyone.
So, in a way, the White Christmas I was hoping for, except I have to work all day from home and we had to shut down a city of seven million to get it. Not worth it. I’ll file this one under wanting it to rain and wanting the rain to stop, both of which have had negative consequences in the past (floods and droughts).