Houston will have three more or less pleasant fall-like days through Sunday, but faces the threat of potentially very severe weather on Monday afternoon through Thursday morning.
TODAY
It’s a chilly start today with most of Houston in the 50s, and under partly to mostly cloudy skies we’re unlikely warm much above the mid-60s. Some sprinkles crossing the northern part of the region this morning will clear out by this afternoon. We’ll have another cool night tonight.
THE WEEKEND
All in all it will be a pretty nice weekend. Saturday will see some sunshine while Sunday should be mostly cloudy. Both days should see highs around 70 degrees, and while rain is possible, chances are quite low. Humidity should begin rising later on Sunday, but for the most part it will be a pleasant fall weekend.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
This is when the forecast becomes more dynamic. Houston will be at risk for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms from a period between Monday night and Wednesday morning, with the greatest threat likely coming during the day on Tuesday.
These storms will be driven by a powerful upper-level low pressure system diving down across the western United States and into Texas on Sunday night. As the system moves into Texas it will drive down surface pressures and pull moisture into Texas and the central plains states. High levels of vertical wind shear should create an environment conducive for severe thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes.
Monday will be warm and muggy in advance of the cold front, with highs in the mid-70s and warm overnight lows on Tuesday morning. Rain accumulations during the storms will probably be 2 to 4 inches for most of the area, but higher isolated totals are definitely possible. I don’t think flooding is the major threat, but rather damaging winds and tornadoes. The front should bring the heavy rain to an end some time on Wednesday, and lows in the upper 40s are possible by next Thursday morning.
In any case, this significant weather threat bears watching.
Posted at 8:30 a.m. Friday
So, is it safe to get my car washed on Saturday? Poor thing hasn’t seen the inside of a car wash in nearly a month……… 🙁
I long ago resigned myself to just washing my car when I felt like it and when it needed it. If I waited until we had days of clear weather in Houston, my car would be filthy year-round haha. I more wash it now to keep the paint clean and to keep it in good condition rather than in an attempt to have a shiny car; there’s much less weather-related disappointment with that approach :).
I’ve been looking over a few sites and models. It does appear that we’re in for some bumpy stuff in the time periods you mentioned. I also feel like the area where Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana converge is going to be a hot spot. Thanks for your posts Eric. I’ve been encouraging my contacts to go to this site for no nonsense weather forecasting .Keep up with honest work!
Are you getting any long-range forecasts yet? Possibly for next weekend – Thanksgiving week?
Thanks for the info – any word on how Thanksgiving is looking?
Still pretty far out. Probably cold to start the week, but it’s not clear yet what the actual day will be like.
So probably a good idea to cancel a Houston outdoor event scheduled for Tuesday evening? There will be fire pits, so the cool weather isn’t a problem, but if it’s raining, that’s a different matter . . .
Hmm. Tough call. The storms are going to be pretty progressive so there’s a chance they will have cleared the area by Tuesday evening, but I wouldn’t guarantee it at this point.
Question about this Saturday. Golf Tournament coming up. I am hearing conflicting reports on rain chances. Saw one that say 60% while another claims 20% That’s a big difference. Thanks for your time
60 percent rain chances in the morning, lesser during the afternoon but the winds will be kicking up. Not a great day, sorry.