Good morning. Following a warm and humid weekend in the 80s, a cold front has moved through most of the Houston metro area overnight, and will soon push off the coast. This will set the stage for much colder weather this week. Then, just as we’re warming up, an even stronger front arrives on Friday. A freeze is probable for part of the Houston area, and possibly even the city itself.
Monday
Temperatures have fallen to about 50 degrees for inland areas this morning, and this colder air is moving south. Temperatures should stay in the 50s today for most of the region. Light rain is possible through the morning hours, but any showers should end by this afternoon as drier air moves into the region. The story for today will be gusty northerly winds, with brief bursts possibly exceeding 30 mph before conditions calm down somewhat this evening. Overnight lows should drop into the upper 40s for most of Houston, but not much further as skies remain overcast.
If you’re headed out to see Luke Bryan tonight at the Houston rodeo, wear something warm. Temperatures should be around 50 degrees before the show this evening, but winds probably will still be somewhat gusty. I don’t think precipitation will be an issue, however. Temperatures will be about the same after the show.
Tuesday
Tuesday won’t be much nicer. Highs will probably only reach the mid-50s or so, and we’ll add rain to the mix. Essentially there will be a thin layer of colder air at the surface, with warmer air riding up on this thin layer. This warmer air should lead to the development of fairly widespread showers, and a few thunderstorms, on Tuesday morning. Accumulations will probably range from 0.25 to 0.75 inch for most, but a few areas may see somewhat higher totals during the late morning and afternoon hours. Lows Tuesday night will drop into the mid-40s for most.
Wednesday
We can’t rule out some additional rain showers on Wednesday, but for most of us this should just be a partly to mostly cloudy day, with highs around 60 degrees. Clearing skies will allow overnight lows Wednesday night to drop into the low- to mid-40s.
Thursday
This should be a warmer day, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs perhaps around 70 degrees. If you had to pick one day this week for outdoor activities, Thursday is definitely the day.
Friday
Friday will start out warm, but at some point a strong cold front will barrel through. At this point I’d guess the timing is around noon, but there’s definitely some wiggle room in that. Some brief showers are possible with the front, but as dry air blows in any rain chances should quickly end as skies clear out. Lows Friday night will plunge, possibly into the mid-30s in Houston, possibly to freezing. It’s going to be fairly close, and at this point it’s impossible to say where the freezing line will be.
Saturday, Sunday, and beyond
Saturday should be sunny and cold, with highs likely in the 50s. Expect another cold night, with temperatures probably similar to Friday night. But by Sunday we should be warming back up, with highs in the 60s. Most of next week, in fact, should be in the 70s give or take.
When I woke up, it was 70 outside. Later, at precisely 6 AM (by my trust digital clock next to the TV) the house got hit with a gust of wind from the north. By 6:20 it was 58.
Impressive!
Wasn’t there a rule of thumb years ago that by Feb. 15, freezes would be done? Isn’t March 11 pretty late for a freeze?
Unfortunately that isn’t always the case. Freezes do happen in March sometimes. On March 5th 2019 it dropped down to 30. In 2014 we had a low of 27 on the 3rd. In 2002 we had a record breaking low of 22 on March 3rd. A late freeze in March doesn’t happen very often, but it does happen occasionally. It is a little more uncommon to see a freeze after the first week of March though. I figured because of the record breaking warm December we just had, that we would probably have a cold March to make up for it
My father, the vegetable gardener from years past, always said it was not a good idea to plant until after ‘the Easter Freeze’. Doesn’t make sense because Easter is a variable date; but it is usually true.
Not many mesquite trees around Houston (that I’ve noticed) but growing up a little farther inland, we always said that mesquites were never fooled–if they’re budding out, the freezes were over. (I think I’ve heard a similar story about pecan trees, but we relied on the mesquites.)
The old time Houston natives always mention the Easter Snap or the Easter Spell, which is the last round of chilly weather that comes for a day or two around Easter. After that, it just gets hotter and hotter until Halloween.
I don’t think weather works like that. Future weather events don’t depend on past weather. The weather in december has nothing to do with the weather today.
Extrapolating the data, there is about a 35% chance of a 32 degrees Fahrenheit reading in Houston on March 10th and a 30% chance of a 32 degrees F. reading in Houston on March 13th. Remember the groundhog predicted 6 more weeks of Winter on Groundhog’s Day. The sixth week mark arrives on March 16th.
What the heck is up with this weather? It’s March, get this cold weather out of here!
Sorry, guys. This is all my fault. I understood the risk I was taking, but in the last week and a half I planted tomatoes and peppers in the garden, aerated the lawn and applied a compost top-dressing. At least the newly planted vegetable plants are small enough to easily cover.
I actually waited an extra few weeks to top-dress the lawn this year, because last year I did it in early February only to have all of the fresh green grown frozen solid by the Valentines Arctic blast. I’m beginning to think I could make it freeze in Cypress/Houston in June if I waited until then to top-dress the lawn! 🙂 Oh well, I’ll water it well Friday and Saturday nights and hope for the best…it should bounce back quickly.
So tired of this mess, i will be glad when this cold weather leave the Houston area, this is not like the Houston Area its march and cold weather still coming in and out.🙄🙄🙄….
If only I could bottle up this never-ending winter feeling and use it on September 30th when I’m cursing the never-ending summer feeling!
This is exactly what I was thinking. I love our version of cold weather.
In their holy benevolence, the Winter Gods have blessed me with one last moment of cold, overcast bliss. I shall relish it immensely.
Funny–right now NWS’ forecast for Hooks Airport says today’s high temp will be 53 degrees. Yet right now it’s 63 degrees. What a miss.
The cold snap won’t be that cold–the highs will be into the 50s. The lows in the 30s aren’t going to threaten to freeze pipes or anything, it probably won’t hit freezing, and, if it does, would only remain there for a brief time. What is annoying is all of the wind. Even during the warm weekend, the gusts were awful, knocking everything down, blowing trash around. It’s hard to ride a bicycle or motorcycle in all that wind. I don’t know why it has become so crazy windy here the last few years. Spring needs to get started though–next weekend is already the time change to DST.