In brief: Temperatures are generally a few degrees below freezing this morning across the metro area, and you’ll want to look out for a few icy patches on area roads. But Houston is well on the way to putting this Arctic freeze behind us. So what does the rest of winter look like here?
Cold update
Most of Houston is experiencing a light freeze this morning, but temperatures are generally about 10 degrees warmer than they were on Wednesday morning. As a result there likely are still a few slick spots on roadways around Houston, including a few freeway bridges and ramps. However, these are mostly navigable if you just take a little more time and care driving this morning. For locations where temperatures are below freezing, they will rise above freezing between 9 and 10 am CT today.
The ghosts of Winter past, present, and yet to come
Now that we’re putting a significant Arctic blast in the rear view mirror, I want to take stock of the rest of winter in Houston. We’re much closer to the end than the beginning, as it is January 23. So far we’ve seen one much warmer than normal month in December, and one much colder than normal month in January. However, the final week of January looks to be fairly mild, with near normal temperatures after Friday.
Looking ahead to February, I expect we will slot back into a somewhat warmer than normal pattern in which the overall flow is more westerly (i.e. more moderate Pacific air masses) rather than northerly (i.e. Canadian and Arctic air masses) in nature. As a result the likely outcome for southern US states is warmer, according to NOAA’s monthly outlook. Although this does not mean we’re necessarily done with freezes for this year, it also would not shock me.
Thursday
We’ll see more sunshine today, and this should push high temperatures up to about 50 degrees for most of the area. Winds will be light, out of the north at 5 to 10 mph. I’d expect one more light freeze in Houston tonight, with the possibility of highs in the upper 20s for outlying areas.
Friday
This will be another fine, sunny day with highs perhaps a couple of degrees warmer, say in the lower 50s. As winds turn to come from the southwest, overnight lows will likely stay above freezing on Friday night for pretty much the entire metro area. However it will still be chilly, with temperatures dropping into the 30s for most locations.
Saturday
The overall pattern starts to change in a big way as high pressure shifts to the east, and we see an increasing onshore flow. This will allow for the development of some clouds on Saturday, and we’ll say goodbye to sunshine for awhile. Highs will reach about 60 or 65 degrees. Some light to moderate rainfall may approach the area by Saturday evening or Saturday night.
Sunday
This looks like a wet day as a slow-moving, weak front moves into, and stalls over Houston. Although we cannot rule out some briefly heavy rain, for the most part this day should just deliver a good soaking, with much of Houston picking up between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. Rain chances will probably be best in the middle of the day. Highs will reach the mid-60s. Rain chances continue, at a lower rate, overnight. Lows drop into the 50s.
Next week
Monday may see a bit of a cessation in rain, but the rest of next week should bring healthy chances each day as we enter a pattern dominated by an atmosphere with more moisture. Highs for the most part look to be in the 60s next week, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
This latest bit of Artic mischief was still preferable to the nightmare that was Feb. 2021.
After this January, normal or warmer than normal is OK with me! Thanks for the grounded and sober updates over the last few days…
It was cold for like… 2 whole weeks, dude. It’s hot 90% of the damn year.
Relax dude, enjoy this time when temps are not hot for you. Like to see how you react when temp is 80 degrees
I am always happy when the temperature is in the 90s or even low 100s. If I wanted to live someplace cold, I would have moved to a cold place.
Totally agree! It’ll be hot way too soon and last till October at least. I honestly don’t understand people wanting the heat during the 1 or 2 months where we aren’t sweltering but still warm.
I choose to live in Houston because I prefer a hot summer day to a freezing cold one. Down here we don’t have to have a “mud room” to knock the snow, ice and mud off of our galoshes before we disrobe and enter the house. I choose to live in Houston because no matter how hot it is I don’t have to put on thermal underwear, pants, flannel shirts gloves and a heavy coat just to safely get to and from my vehicle and back if I happen to leave my phone in the cab. Down here I have never lost something on the ground in November only to find it again in April when the snow melts. Speaking of trucks? I have never had to plug mine in down here to keep the oil from freezing. And I have never had to pack a survival kit in my truck when I go to the grocery store just in case I break down and don’t make it… If you happen to break down anywhere in Texas even in the hottest of months you can just get out and walk…
Yes it is hot and it stinks but there are much worse places to live.
Exactly! The weather is horrid here 90 percent of the year. At least right now we can breathe!
Ehh, not for me, lol..It was still annoyingly warm for my long walks, even through December…Weird weather pattern this year..Last year and the year before were also quite hot for many months, but we had more in the way of decent cool fronts even in September..
Y’all have to reconsider your fascination with AI image generation. It completely flies in the face of your acceptance of climate science. I would link to the publications that spell out the energy and water resources impact of the technology (not to mention the ethics of using stolen work) but I’m sure you’ve seen them.
You can run image generation AI like stable diffusion locally on your system. It literally uses as much electricity as running a video game on your computer.
I marvel at the manner in which Eric and Matt are unruffled by inane comments. I pray that they are never discouraged by this and that they continue their labors on this site which are a blessing to so many.
Social media attracts inane comments like rats run to garbage.
Agree. AI image generation is built on the theft of artists’ work, plain and simple. It should not be used.
Oh wow I thought Grok was the name of that winter AI creature. It fits. Nice & creepy.
Of course you can count on one cold rainy day during Rodeo
It’s usually on the chili cook off day LOL
Actually, according to Oxford Dictionary, “Y’all – Dialect: US – Contraction for you all.” However, the punctuation you use and the use of the word hab in the same sentence, are NOT correct, by far.
Yeah, there was a bad accident involving 4 vehicles on Hwy 146 this morning, closing the Hwy off for a bit..Be careful out there..
I’m glad the rains on tap for the end of the week..To thoroughly water and soothe my poor cold bottlebrush tree..I cannot tell yet if it was burned by the cold..
This cold spell was enough to kill my papaya plants once again, for the3rd or 4th year in a row, so the rest of the winter can do whatever it wants, just don’t break my pipes. Houston never had such sustained periods of cold weather, with temperatures hovering in the 20s or even teens for several hours. Not until 2021.
No, it has. You can look at the historical temps.
Bless your heart Jason. You must not have been alive in December 1983 where it stayed below freezing in Houston for five days, and reached 11 degrees on Christmas Day. And there was no Internet or even cable TV. Somehow people survived.
During the “Little Ice Age” in the early 1800’s it got so cold here that parts of Galveston Bay that froze over!
You might mention that last December 15, the NWS’ outlook for January 2025 looks a lot like the map you’re showing for February–above normal temperatures for the southern U.S. In fact, NWS’ January forecast had no below normal areas in the entire continental United States. That forecast was a complete bust.
tanstaafl: Yes it was a complete bust. It almost makes me wonder why they even bother to put out long range forecast maps because they are frequently wrong.
Nope, no correlation at all between a landfalling hurricane in SE Texas and snow the next winter. Just an old wives’ tale… 😉
And, FWIW, I subscribe to Weatherbell and I understand how the statistics work and I agree that statistically and practically there really can’t be a connection because the atmospheric dynamics are so complicated and disconnected from one event to the other… but dang it sure is a persistent connection that keeps the mythology alive!
It’s a sign of the times when the 3 month winter average will still be above normal even after a near record cold January
All in all this winter storm was kind of nice. It seems like most people’s power didn’t go out and we got a couple of days to stay at home!