In brief: Houston’s high temperature hit 101 degrees Wednesday with modestly drier air. Now, as tropical moisture moves into the region we will see increasing rain chances heading into the weekend. And looking ahead to August, the start of the month appears to be fairly mild as August goes in these parts.
At least it’s a dry heat
Houston’s high temperature reached 101 degrees on Wednesday at Bush Intercontinental Airport. This was aided in part by high pressure, but also unusually dry air. During the mid- to late-morning hours in the city, the dewpoint fell into the 50s, which made the heat feel a little (emphasis on a little) more tolerable. Anyway, drier air warms more efficiently than air with higher levels of moisture, so that helped turn a hot day into a sizzling one. Moisture has already begun to increase in the atmosphere, so that will set the stage for slightly cooler, but more humid weather with rising rain chances as we get closer to the weekend.
Thursday
Speaking of rain chances, showers have developed this morning on the eastern side of Galveston Bay, in places such as Anahuac and Bolivar Peninsula. I expect these storms to hang together and move into the southern half of the region (generally south of I-10) later this morning. Additional light to moderate showers will be possible later today, but overall chances are probably only about 30 percent. An increase in clouds and atmospheric moisture levels should hold high temperatures in the upper 90s for most locations today.
Friday
This will be another day with partly to mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s for most locations. There will be scattered showers throughout the day, and an increasing risk of some stronger showers Friday afternoon or evening. Again I think these will be fairly scattered in nature, but we cannot rule out a few thunderstorms if you are out an about on a Friday night. Overnight temperatures, otherwise, remain warm and muggy.
Saturday and Sunday
Even though skies should remain partly to mostly sunny this weekend, we will see our best rain chances on Saturday and Sunday. Most of the area should see intermittent light to moderate showers on Saturday, and Sunday will also likely see half the region recording some precipitation. Overall accumulations look fairly modest, in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range for most, but there may well be some bullseyes with 2-plus inches of rainfall. So while it is unlikely, we cannot entirely rule out some isolated street flooding. Highs look to be in the low- to mid-90s on both days.
Next week
All in all, for August, next week looks to be fairly typical. We can expect high temperatures generally in the low- to mid-90s, with mostly sunny days. However there will also be a daily chance of showers (nothing crazy, mind you) that will likely be driven by the sea breeze. Any days we can get through August without blistering heat or a threatening tropical system are small victories.
Tropics
Speaking of the tropics, there’s just not much happening out there at the end of July. Sure, there are a couple of tropical waves we are keeping an eye on, but nothing that appears likely to develop for at least the next week. So, dare I say, I feel pretty good about Houston’s weather heading into August? I can’t remember the last time I felt or said that.
Got an email on Tue from Reliant, asking us to reduce electricity usage on Wed from 6pm to 9pm. … well, we got a 2nd email from them yesterday asking us to reduce usage tonight 6pm to 9pm.
Obviously an “aftermath” request because the predicted high for today is 93 for the Magnolia area. Yesterday it got to 99, as it did on Tuesday. Currently 75° , but yesterday’s low was 72° (with a low dewpoint).
Nothing on NHC 7 Day prediction map for the Atlantic. Glad for that!
Would be nice if we get the anticipated rains … but NWS radar shows the current rain bubble heading along the coast. Fox26 future radar isn’t very promising for us to get rain today 🤦🏼♀️
My neighbor’s PWS that he links to Weather Underground had the dewpoints down where I live (Sienna) only going down to 75 F yesterday. Sultry hot down here! These are the days when I miss the 97 F with a RH of 7% of back home that were common this time of year.
I grew up in Central NY where 85° was Hot! I would always go visit in August. My family was dying of the heat but I would be freezing! 😄
I’m from UT. In summer, as soon as the sun started to wane, the temperature would rapidly fall like 20 degrees. Then another 10 to 15 overnight. We would also go up one of the canyons by our house. It would always be 20 degrees cooler than the urban area. You could survive better there in summer. But you had to pay for it by having snow in the winter.
You guys nearly gave me a heart attack… I saw the atmospheric moisture map and mistook it for heat index forecast!
It’s time to review my proprietary long term forecasting algorithm based on folklore, the MJO, AMO, PDO and half a dozen or so poorly understood ocean patterns that end in O…
For July I said it would be slightly warmer than normal (+1.5) and slightly dryer than normal with only 2” of rain at IAH. We finished the month +1.1 with 4” of rain not counting today.
Not bad compared to the complete bust I had in June. So here goes August! The complex algorithm says August will be .07 degrees warmer than our long term average with 3” of rain at IAH…
This long term weather forecasting is not easy…
Worst h’canes hit TX preOct, and are seen 14 days out by Brazil, so with 1 week looking clear, that leaves 60-7-14 so 41 days we hope mid Atlantic stays clear. 41 days left. This ain’t considering small storms starting mid Gulf which my house and yours can survive.
as the optimistic Irishman would say: hottest day of the year…. so far!
39 days I meant.
Treasure quiet weather days 🌬🌹
July 31st
Record high: 103 in 2023
Record low: 67 in 1891
Curious, please explain % chance of rain. Is this an odds thing like 50/50 chance ‘any’ rain will fall, or 50% of the area ‘will’ get rain, or given current atmospheric conditions historically 50% of the area received rain?
I usually divide by 2 to get my chance of actually getting rain. Unless it’s forecasted over 80%, then subtract about 10-15.
Good question – don’t bother to look it up for you’ll be more mired in gobbledy goop met speak. Unrequited love for that occasional rain here is endemic. Best not to entertain rain chances – they’re mostly meaningless below 80% ….especially with a southwest wind. The height vs temp profile is likely inverted as usual and you’ll get no precipitation. One of my apps keeps pushing off the timing of rain today and radar is dissipating around these parts. But, I’m in “We’ll see” mode.
DJ: Yep! So far it’s been almost exactly the opposite of what the TV meteorologists said yesterday. We will see about the rest of the evening.
Wonder what caused the drop in dewpoints Wednesday? And why did the dewpoints return to normal today? Weather is weird…
The winds shifted from the west yesterday, which filtered in drier air from west Texas. Today, the winds have shifted back to the southeast from the Gulf, which is filtering in more water vapor into the atmosphere.
The winds have shifted back from the southeast, I should say.