In brief: Houston’s high temperature hit 101 degrees Wednesday with modestly drier air. Now, as tropical moisture moves into the region we will see increasing rain chances heading into the weekend. And looking ahead to August, the start of the month appears to be fairly mild as August goes in these parts.
At least it’s a dry heat
Houston’s high temperature reached 101 degrees on Wednesday at Bush Intercontinental Airport. This was aided in part by high pressure, but also unusually dry air. During the mid- to late-morning hours in the city, the dewpoint fell into the 50s, which made the heat feel a little (emphasis on a little) more tolerable. Anyway, drier air warms more efficiently than air with higher levels of moisture, so that helped turn a hot day into a sizzling one. Moisture has already begun to increase in the atmosphere, so that will set the stage for slightly cooler, but more humid weather with rising rain chances as we get closer to the weekend.
Thursday
Speaking of rain chances, showers have developed this morning on the eastern side of Galveston Bay, in places such as Anahuac and Bolivar Peninsula. I expect these storms to hang together and move into the southern half of the region (generally south of I-10) later this morning. Additional light to moderate showers will be possible later today, but overall chances are probably only about 30 percent. An increase in clouds and atmospheric moisture levels should hold high temperatures in the upper 90s for most locations today.
Friday
This will be another day with partly to mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s for most locations. There will be scattered showers throughout the day, and an increasing risk of some stronger showers Friday afternoon or evening. Again I think these will be fairly scattered in nature, but we cannot rule out a few thunderstorms if you are out an about on a Friday night. Overnight temperatures, otherwise, remain warm and muggy.
Saturday and Sunday
Even though skies should remain partly to mostly sunny this weekend, we will see our best rain chances on Saturday and Sunday. Most of the area should see intermittent light to moderate showers on Saturday, and Sunday will also likely see half the region recording some precipitation. Overall accumulations look fairly modest, in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range for most, but there may well be some bullseyes with 2-plus inches of rainfall. So while it is unlikely, we cannot entirely rule out some isolated street flooding. Highs look to be in the low- to mid-90s on both days.
Next week
All in all, for August, next week looks to be fairly typical. We can expect high temperatures generally in the low- to mid-90s, with mostly sunny days. However there will also be a daily chance of showers (nothing crazy, mind you) that will likely be driven by the sea breeze. Any days we can get through August without blistering heat or a threatening tropical system are small victories.
Tropics
Speaking of the tropics, there’s just not much happening out there at the end of July. Sure, there are a couple of tropical waves we are keeping an eye on, but nothing that appears likely to develop for at least the next week. So, dare I say, I feel pretty good about Houston’s weather heading into August? I can’t remember the last time I felt or said that.
