In brief: Invest 93L is kaput, and now we will look for some heavier downpours in spots today. Rain chances begin to dwindle on Saturday and Sunday as a hotter, less unsettled pattern establishes over our region for much of next week.
Today
Our best chance of rain will come today. The radar as of early Friday morning shows widespread rain north of Liberty and in Louisiana. Additional, more isolated thunderstorms are popping up along I-10 near Beaumont and on the Bolivar Peninsula.
As we go through today, a lot of that steadier rain north of I-10 will probably dissipate. Even some of the thunderstorms this morning may fizzle. But a new round of scattered thunderstorms is likely this afternoon. For the most part, this will be like any other summer afternoon in Houston. Available atmospheric moisture will be a bit higher than usual though, so just be on the lookout for a downpour or two that could briefly flood streets in some parts of the city. Storms should fade after sunset.
Saturday
There should be a somewhat decent lingering shower chance here, but for the most part, any added moisture from the Invest 93L (RIP) would be exiting. I wouldn’t be floored to see a couple heavier downpours in the area though. Look for highs in the mid-90s.
Sunday through Tuesday
We’ve had very few days this summer that carried virtually zero rain chance. It would appear that Sunday through Tuesday carry good chances for that to be the case, however. Look for mostly sunshine. Another bout of Saharan dust could come our way Monday and Tuesday. For now, I’ll say mid-90s, but if the Saharan dust is minimal Monday and Tuesday, we do have a decent shot at upper-90s on those days in some parts of the area.
Late next week
The heat should stay cooking for later next week, with highs in the mid to upper-90s continuing. We may even see a stronger surge of heat later next weekend or the week of the 28th. Rain chances may pick back up a little by Friday or next weekend. Overall, it looks fairly dry next week across the region.
Is there some truth to the possibility that parts of this system come swirling back into the gulf by late next week?
It would appear so. Read Matt’s Rest of the Tropics section in today’s edition of The Eyewall.
Happy Birthday Ashley! I hope your day is full of joy 🎂
It seems like the NOAA and weather forecasters got this invest 93L tropical disturbance prediction absolutely correct. Sometimes it is easy to only focus on when weather prediction goes wrong, but in this case it went right.
Tangentially, the humidity yesterday was perfect. I actually caught a slight chill as I was biking home. I think the temperature dropped to around 89 degrees and 55% humidity as the sun was setting. That is a wet bulb temperature of around 76 degrees! Count me in!
I’m happy for the added cloud cover – to shave off a few degrees – and the light rain, which helps with the drought and also cools things off a bit. Every degree lower is a good thing.
I’m just hoping that this wave last 1-2 weeks max. I know we’ve been blessed by what was once considered normal in daily afternoon showers this summer, but last several summers these high pressure ridges seem to get stuck with no end in sight.
Thanks for the accurate, no hype, boring, factual forecast on this disturbance. Today everyone will forget the in your face Houston hype on TikTok, if they haven’t already. You guys will never get a huge following on TikTok because you make predictions based on your best estimate of what the data tells you and that’s why so many of us rely on you. I for one can’t thank you enough.
Glad you guys were right about 93L. My elderly neighbor was watching the local weather stations and according to her they were warning about the system coming into Texas. I told her to calm down and explained to her how “my guys” were saying not to worry. I know this time of year is exciting for most meteorologist, but tv hype is not good especially for the elderly. Thank you guys!
💞 very nice
July 18th
Record high: 102 in 1980
Record low: 67 in 1974
Why hasn’t anyone talked more about the Saharan dust predictions? I feel it should be included in all forecasts and it’s so hard to find the preventative information.
Clever way to plant that Paul Simon song in my head with the title of today’s post. And it’s a calm one, and boring, but soothing, just like SCW is intended to be…