An early wake-up call from thunderstorms is possible on Monday in parts of the Houston area

In brief: Thunderstorms impacting the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and Abilene may hold together overnight and arrive in Houston near sunrise, bringing thunder, lightning, and locally heavy rain to parts of the area.

We’re barging into your Sunday evening briefly to just offer a heads up that thunderstorms may arrive in the Houston area on Monday morning. In North Texas, there’s a pretty potent severe weather risk tonight. We’ve seen gigantic hail in the area between the Caprock and the Metroplex. Those storms are now kind of congealing into a complex of thunderstorms that will continue to arc east and southeast, possibly arriving in Southeast Texas by Monday morning.

Actual radar just before 10 PM on Sunday evening showing numerous warnings north and west of DFW and a large cluster of thunderstorms. (RadarScope)

While we are not under severe weather risk tonight, there is a marginal risk posted for Monday (level 1/5) for Houston. These storms could hold together a bit as they approach. While we do not expect gigantic hail or extreme winds like they’ve seen in some spots up north, we could see some frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.

A forecast radar from the HRRR model depicts what the radar could look like at 6 AM on Monday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

The HRRR model depicted above shows storms arriving right around 6 AM before dissipating by 8-9 AM. Don’t focus on specifics but rather the overall picture which shows a gradually weakening line of storms moving in. The most likely area to see organized thunderstorms is north of I-10 and west of I-45, but it’s possible that many of us see at least some rain or thunder by mid-morning Monday. Conditions would then calm down a bit Monday afternoon.

Bottom line: Don’t be shocked if you’ve got kids or pets running in a little before wake-up time tomorrow. We’d currently rate this about a 6 out of 10 on the excitable dog scale, with perhaps some higher values up toward Navasota or Huntsville or Conroe.

Eric will have more in the morning.

4 thoughts on “An early wake-up call from thunderstorms is possible on Monday in parts of the Houston area”

  1. Thanks for the update! When I get a notification from you guys at unsuspecting hours, my eye brow always does a little raise lol. 🧐

    Reply
    • I contemplated if it made sense given that we aren’t like expecting much, if any severe weather, but I think just given that it probably would have surprised everyone, better to be ahead of it. Even if it’s late.

      Reply

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