In brief: Thursday will be another day like Wednesday, with the potential for showers and likely some heavy rain along the coast. But Friday is a transition day toward a sunny weekend. Sunday looks especially nice with slightly cooler temperatures and considerably drier air. Fall’s first front always feels amazing, regardless of its strength.
Thursday
Today and tonight will be the final period of widespread rains, with the potential for coastal flooding. An approaching front will finally begin to nudge a coastal low pressure system away from the upper Texas coast on Friday, and begin reducing rain chances. But first, today. At sunrise the bulk of the showers associated with the low are just offshore. That will begin to change this morning, as some of these rains move inland into coastal areas. The pattern will be similar to yesterday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely in coastal counties, and more sporadic showers for inland areas, including most of the city of Houston. For this reason, a Stage 1 flood alert remains in effect for coastal counties, including Galveston.
In terms of temperatures, most of the region today will be in the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be from the northeast, with some gusts up to 20 mph this afternoon, and even higher along the coast. Skies will be mostly cloudy today and tonight, when the potential for showers will linger. Lows drop into the mid- to upper-70s.
Friday
Skies start out mostly cloudy on Friday, and we’ll still see some lingering rain chances throughout the day. However, by the afternoon or evening hours, we should start to see some clearing skies. Highs will likely push into the upper 80s, with gusty northeast winds up to 25 mph.
Saturday
We’ll start to feel the effects of the front, but the drier air will percolate in over time, and it may not be until the afternoon or evening hours when you begin to feel it. With mostly sunny skies, expect high temperatures to reach about 90 degrees. Winds will be noticeable from the northeast, gusting up to 25 mph. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the upper 60s for most locations.
Sunday
This should be a fine day, with highs in the mid-80s, and some of our driest air in months. It still will be a bit breezy, with winds from the north-northeast. Skies will be sunny. Sunday night should be the coolest of the forecast period, with parts of Houston likely to drop into the mid-60s. Now that’s not cold, but combined with the dry air it’s going to feel pretty amazing outside regardless. Enjoy.
Next week
Monday looks to be another day with dry air and cooler temperatures before the onshore flow returns in force by Monday night or Tuesday. This should bring the return of some clouds and healthy rain chances during the Tuesday through Thursday period. Highs should remain in the mid-80s with ample humidity. The end of next week should be a little warmer—we’ll see.
Tropics
A couple of readers have written in expressing concerns about the tropics. After all, this is the absolute peak of hurricane season for the Texas coast and Gulf of Mexico. But the reality is that the low meandering just offshore—which has been driving our rains in recent days—does not appear particularly likely to develop tropical characteristics (it’s given a 10 percent chance by the National Hurricane Center). Then, we’re watching a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean that may move into the Bay of Campeche early next week.
It seems like we’ve been watching this wave forever. And yes, there is some chance (maybe 30 percent?) this begins to develop next week, but most likely it would remain off the Texas coast and eventually be pulled eastward away from the state. So yes, we’ve got things to watch. But there’s nothing I would be too concerned about at this time. If that changes, and of course it could, we’ll let you know.
Do we have city/county data anywhere that shows the annual rain totals so far for 2024? Pretty sure this is our wettest year in Sargent / Damon where we have homes.
https://www.harriscountyfws.org
Select “historical” and set date to 1/1/2024 to get YTD precipitation.
We are right at the total annual average as of today.
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_graphs_iah
Harris County Flood Warning System has historical data that is easy to play with and should go back until Harvey but as far as personalized, annualized records going back really far, I’m not sure.
I live in the Steep Bank Village part of Sienna. A PWS very near to me that is connected to the Weather Underground network has recorded 43.33″ of rainfall for 1/1/24 thru 8/31/24. 14.63″ of this came in July, due to the hurricane. And so far in September we have had another .99″ of rain.
Soggy suppressed sultriness suitably starts September.
All alliteration always amazes and appeals!
Why would we want wacky weather?
Any news on an update to the app? Mine still thinks we are in August…
💪🏻😆_👍🏻.
You can also look up here.
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/
We are on the day 249 of 2024, so you can look up the historical data this way.
Is there ever going to be a good soaking rain for inland areas??
I cannot wait for the dry air, if only to tell the cockroaches AGAIN to stay outside. There are a lot of things that are gross about this city (and I’m a native), but that might be number one.
Get preventative sprayings if you can. I have mine sprayed at least 2x a year, if not quarterly, and anything that may find its way inside dies very, very quickly. I’ve also improved the hatch to my attic to provide a tighter seal so nothing comes down that way too. It’s unfortunately a part of living in Houston, but it in no way means that you have to live with the little disgusting devils.
Exterminators came two weeks ago. Unfortunately I don’t have much control of what my landlord does in my apartment, and I do love the huge trees we have. They do as well 🙁 And they seem to come in with the rain or if the sewer gets stirred up from rain. I am from here and I’m “used” to them, I guess, but not a fan at all. Thanks for the info!
Sadly, spraying the outside of the house for roaches also kills off all the beneficial creatures and insects. Best just to keep the house clean.
Not talking about German cockroaches, I’m talking about the ones that are huge and live outside unless they decide they’re too hot or thirsty or whatever. I clean my house.
Seriously deter them with (1) a high quality dehumidifier (2) salt-line the ground near problem areas/baseboards (3) leave fully open baking soda boxes in bathrooms/kitchen/closets (4) all food thrown out in plastic bags.
Make other apartments seem more inviting – they’ll scurry elsewhere. They always take the easy way.
Never live on ground floor in Houston apartments.
I never use pesticides. Ever. I don’t/haven’t critter problems in Houston, despite the growing issues. If you see critters, keep the salt & baking soda switched out. They also intensely dislike the smell of garlic cloves.
This WORKS.
And use electric fans and ceiling fans. Cockroaches do not like the pulsating air.
Thoughts on declaring Sunday Fall Day?
Well, I see folks in Beaumont all the way east to Gulfport are getting all the rain attention. Seems folks “north of I-10, west of 45” are left out of the picture (except when a “Beryl” plows thru 👍 ). Heck, even northern LA and portions of MS are getting rain from this system.
Admittedly, no one predicted rain up as far “north” as Magnolia for the last weeks. And of course, folks in Santa Fe 🙂
Am glad the 1st cool front is heading in!
Is it possible this cool front comes across the coast, then retreats north, pulling the disturbance that will be festering in the Bay of Campeche up into Houston with its tropical rain?