In brief: In today’s post we take a quick temperature check on TikTok, which seems hot and bothered about the possibility of a hurricane hitting Houston. In the real world, we discuss the forecast for the week ahead, which includes an elevated chance of rain on Friday from a tropical disturbance that is almost certainly going to move into Louisiana.
The TikTok hurricane
On Tuesday evening one of my daughters said “everyone” on TikTok is talking about a hurricane coming to Houston this weekend. At first, I thought it must be a few pot-stirrers, because nothing could be further from the truth. Why? Because:
a) There is no hurricane
b) A tropical system that probably won’t develop much is probably not coming to Texas
c) There is no credible basis on which to make such a forecast right now, like none
So we sat down and she showed me some of the videos. (Full disclosure, I just turned 52 years old, and I have only dabbled on TikTok. It’s just not my thing. If it’s yours, that is totally fine. I am not shaming anyone who likes TikTok or creates content there). I was blown away. The amount of misinformation is staggering, and these videos are being watched 100,000s of thousands of times, with this huge influential reach. It was to the point where my daughter was seriously concerned about the possibility of a hurricane coming to Houston, and asked me what we should do about it.
I have no desire to try and take on the Chinese government or ByteDance and its algorithm. I realize that misinformation is rampant across social media, not just TikTok, and that people are knowingly and unknowingly spreading it for various reasons. But it frustrates me because this kind of content spreads anxiety, which for some people is crippling; and the inevitable false alarms will only sow doubt and uncertainty when the time comes to take real forecasts seriously.
So with this post I just wanted to reiterate that Space City Weather will never play these games. We are not chasing clout. We aspire, above all things, to be boring and have boring weather to write about. We also acknowledge that we are far from perfect. We will make mistakes in our effort to predict the future, but they are honest mistakes and believe me, Matt and I agonize over them. In short, we are always going to try and bring you the truth about the weather as we see it. In 2025, that mission seems to be more vital than ever. So we fight on. We will do our utmost. I fear it will not be enough.
Wednesday
As pressures rise and atmospheric moisture levels fall, today should be mostly sunny in Houston with virtually no chance of rain. Instead it’s going to be a classic mid-July day with plenty of humidity, and high temperatures in the mid-90s. Winds will be light, from the south at 5 to 10 mph with slightly gusty conditions during the afternoon hours. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 70s.
Thursday
A day similar to Wednesday, although there is a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze. Chances are 10 to 20 percent.
Friday
An increase in atmospheric moisture, related to the tropical disturbance in the Gulf, will bring a better chance of rain on Friday. These rains should be concentrated most heavily over Louisiana, and there is likely to be sharp gradient to the west approaching Houston. That is to say, there will be a line west of which rain is unlikely. Where will that line be? Interstate 45 is a decent guess, but the line could also be closer to Beaumont. The map below shows the best guess from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center. My sense is that areas along and east of Interstate 45 have a decent chance to pick up 0.5 to 1 inch of rain on Friday, with lesser amounts to the west. But this forecast is very much written in pencil right now. Any winds and surge from the tropical system should not be impactful in the greater Houston region. Expect highs of around 90 degrees with mostly cloudy skies.
Saturday and Sunday
A decent chance of showers will linger into Saturday, perhaps about 40 percent, but this day should bring partly sunny skies back into the forecast with highs in the lower 90s. By Sunday high pressure should be taking hold, so rain chances should reach closer to zero, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-90s.
Next week
Most of next week looks hot and sunny, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s. Rain chances will be quite low for much of the week, although the upper air pattern could change toward the end of the week to bring precipitation back into the forecast. We shall see.
Invest 93L
So what really is happening with the tropical system? Not a whole lot. The ‘center’ has crossed the Florida peninsula, but it remains close to the Florida Panhandle this morning. This proximity to land will not help with any efforts to develop. Over the next day or so the center should remain very close to the northern Gulf coast, limiting development. There is a non-zero chance that some sort of center organizes further south today, and this would allow for more strengthening. However that appears fairly unlikely. Probably, the low pressure system will continue to track more or less west before moving into Louisiana on Thursday night or Friday, bringing an high chance of rain. The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate there is a 40 percent chance of a tropical depression or weak tropical storm forming before landfall.
Some of the models that were advertising extreme rainfall totals in southern Louisiana have backed off some. However, this is still a favorable setup for heavy rainfall so flooding along and south of Interstate 10 in Louisiana is a distinct possibility.
As ever with tropical systems there is inherent unpredictability, especially with systems that have yet to develop a well-defined center of circulation. But time is running out for Invest 93L to surprise us.
Great post – I had no idea all that stuff was going on with tiktok 🙄
Boring definitely works for me.
A person in the neighborhood put out the “warning” 2 days ago, and I immediately checked here. She was using the app ventusky. FWIW
Kandy: I’ve looked at Ventusky several times during this week and each time it showed Louisiana as a low end system.
Kandy: I have looked at Ventusky several times since the weekend and each time it has shown Louisiana as a low end system. Not sure what she was looking at.
It’s unclear (to me) what “She was using the app ventusky. FWIW” is indicative of.
Worth “what”?
And no, to be clear, Ventusky did NOT announce any sort of “hurricane warning/watch/etc” as related to 93L. That “warning” was obviously created by the neighbor, i.e., their interpretation of the provided data 🙂
…
Ventusky is one of about 4-6 “weather tools” (cough, websites) we use to see what might be heading our way, whether (weather?) it’s sunny skies, or rain and thunder, or possible hurricanes. It’s no different than other weather websites. “Ventusky”, is the combination of two words: the Latin word, Ventus (wind), and the (English) word, Sky
From Ventusky: Ventusky serves as a platform for visualizing meteorological data. The main provider of meteorological data for Ventusky is DWD and NOAA. However, the radar layers (marked as EURAD, USRAD and WORAD) have several other country-specific providers, which are summarized below.
…
We are a meteorological company. At our company, we focus on weather prediction and meteorological data visualisation. And I agree – it’s a great website to see the various weather imaging in motion.
Eric, thank you for this explanation of how these rumors got started. I was told a few days ago that a hurricane is headed this way, and was confused when I could find nothing in any reliable resource. I usually check multiple resources, but you guys are always where I land for, as you said, “boring” info; no hype, straightforward, and informative. You are my most credible resource. Please keep up the good work!
I do NOT believe everything that I find on FB, TikTok, or any other social media. I develop trust in sources after watching them for weeks, if not months or years. And that’s why I trust your blog for truthful reporting. Please, keep it boring!
There is a huge youth convention happening in Nee Orleans starting on Saturday night. The kids (including mine) will be traveling there on early Saturday. So great, we will be fine here, but what am I sending my kids into?
Rain and possible flooding along the 10 corridor. They literally cover that at the end of the post.
@Kami … we watch FoxWeather channel, which is a 24-hour weather (TV) channel – they cover weather all across the US, so not focused on one area in particular. We watch it throughout the day on channel 26.3, which is the “over-the-air” channel (yea, we are those folks who use an antennae 🙂 ) FoxWeather can also be streamed live (or watch recorded broadcasts) using their website, which is “foxweather dot com”. They also having a streaming channel on Samsung Plus and PlutoTV (on Samsung TV’s and smartphones).
Anyway, they are constantly reporting on 93L (watching it right now – they are in Biloxi, MS, reporting live on the beach 🙂 They are also analyzing what’s happening as 93L is moving along, in their various studios.
I’m looking at the video article titled, “Invest 93L to fuel increasing Gulf Coast flood threat” (found at their website) …. anyway, there is a graphic that shows there is a “Flood Watch” that has been issued from Biloxi, MS all the way to Lafayette, LA … it’s obviously from the Gulf coastline to reaching to BEYOND (many miles north) the I-10 corridor. (it’s at the three minute mark in the 4 minute video).
I’d recommend watching FoxWeather channel or visit the website to see the details. They also show predicted storm paths, to include “inches of rain” predictions, etc.
Taking advice from TikTok is not smart. Some people are not smart. Ok, a lot of people maybe aren’t smart. Thanks for keeping it real!!
My daughter has been sending me all the TikTok videos and asking if she needs to buy battery fans and supplies 😂. I keep telling her – I don’t worry until Space City does. Thank you both!
Agreed, “don’t freak out until SCW does” is my philosophy as well!
You guys are awesome… Thanks for the clarifications. Like so many others, I don’t worry until you guys tell us to worry. I know occasionally there may be an off…like the derecho… but you guys are the most accurate ever. Keep up the great work.
at least people are practicing their emergency management skills. It’s better than peddling xenophobic stuff, which is the typical stuff.
Firing off the tornado sirens every time dark clouds on the horizon is a great way to get the citizenry to ignore the sirens when they need them most. This is not just ‘practicing emergency management skills’, as SCW has mentioned, It’s worse, as the people screaming those sirens for clout and personal enrichment.
Don’t post much but couldn’t agree more on TikTok. It’s nothing but more garbage from our biggest adversary. Staying in the SAT/Hill Country area more now…I watched as pretty much everyone butchered the NWS WFO SAT/AUS for lack of advanced warning and poor forecasting. This crap is all over the place. The two best explanations (locally) came from yourself and Travis Herzog. I believe Joe Bastardi is having a forum on his Weather Bell blog as well…don’t quote me on that but it might be the July 27 or 28 subject. Regardless…keep up the excellent work as we still have our GLS house and read your forecasts daily no matter where we are.
Re: TikTok bad info
I agree. maybe Space City weather should have a TikTok account also and post there also daily. Fight fire with fire? Great work guys!
unfortunately “relax, we’re just going to get rain” isn’t as shareable as ringing all the bells and blowing all the whistles saying the sky is falling. The algo clearly favors one side over the other.
Thank you SO much for putting things straight! I only follow you guys for weather, but it’s so scary what others are putting out there 😢
Thank you for addressing the misinformation that surrounds us. I ALWAYS know I can count on Space City Weather for an accurate weather forecast.
Regarding tiktok, well said! I trust you guys with no hype, just what you see and a clear explanation!
Thanks!
I’ve seen all the misinformation on TikTok and luckily there are at least a handful of us saying “if Space City Weather isn’t worried, I’m not worried.”
I saw a lot of the panicked tiktoks too. If it makes you feel any better, several commenters told people to only trust you as an info source!
Space City Weather is my go to place for the best possible weather forecast for this 82 year old lady. Thank you for all you do.
I get all my weather news from Space City, especially this time of year. No hype! Remembering Katrina, one well known meteorologist kept saying Katrina would hit Texas and scared a lot of people for nothing. I’m sure not going to listen to someone on TicTok or Facebook. Anyone who starts off with a TicTok post with the opening word “Bro” shouldn’t be trusted with weather science. What is sad the “intelligent” people on social media will believe it and go out to hoard up on toilet paper. Another reason why I don’t need those apps.
TikTokkers spread hype so that they can claim to be right after the fact and then monetize their next prediction. Nobody remembers how many times they were wrong (or it gets deleted) so there’s no downside to being full of $#!t.
It reminds me of an old stock market scam: You tell 1000 people that stock A is going to go up and 1000 that it’ll go down. Whichever one is right becomes the pool for your prediction about stock B – tell 500 that it’s going up, 500 that it’s going down. Whichever one is right becomes the pool for stock C – tell 250 that it’s going up, 250 that it’s going down. Whichever one is right, you “show” them that you’ve been right 3 times in a row and to get info on your next pick they have to pay you.
Hey, I certainly don’t care, but in one of your tik tok screenshots there’s an F bomb dropped. One of your more sensitive readers might care and yell at you. Just FYI (since it’s my favorite word it doesn’t bother me, but I’m attempting to keep an annoyance from you guys).
Also, I’m going to repeat to the weather gods, birthday Friday. Texas is closed to storms. 😉
“we aspire to be boring” 🤣🤣🤣 merch opportunity?
That settles it, I’m heading to Spec’s. Because you never know…
Don’t forget, TikTok by law is not supposed to be operating in this country. If those who are elected to enforce the law would just do so, this would not be happening.
Thank you for your honesty. I have been living in Texas since 2014, and you are my go-to source for weather updates.
Social media weather forecasting is the worst. And, while I’m not on TikTok, I’m not surprised. Last hurricane season, any number of armchair weather forecasters (most located in the upper Midwest and not near the Gulf) drew any number of maps with arrows pointing at Houston. The only one that hit was the one they didn’t care about — Beryl. I wish more TV mets were as honest as you and said, “don’t believe social media…we don’t care who you watch, but there are a number of legitimate sources here in Houston you can turn to.”
We can’t get the hype out of TV weather “a storm is forming in the Gulf, we’ll tell you where it’s going after the movie…” but everyone can do the job you guys do in saying “like it or not, we’re experts in this area.”
Time to evacuate to Katy!!!!!!!!!!
You’re doing great guys. Don’t let the people who are Chicken Littles get to ya
Thank you for your integrity. Your no nonsense approach is refreshing in these time of social media sensationalism. I hope it was an opportunity to teach your daughter about fact checking.
Thank you for the forecast clarification, I appreciate your knowledge!
As a general rule you should take ANYTHING you see on tiktok with a massive grain of salt.
Thanks for your transparent and honest approach to weather forecasting.
If you look at the 00z July 13 run of the ICON model you will see where this started. It did show a 989 mb storm making landfall in Houston. Last time I looked at Ventusky their forecasts were based heavily on the ICON model. But that is how social media works, find one run of an outlier model and start racking up the views.
If anyone believes and type of information from any social media from people who are uneducated per say might need to rethink about the real world. I have been saying this for a long time the invention of the internet is the worst thing ever that man/humans has ever invented. No need to explain on that we all see the cry babies who needs attention etc etc.
Rebuttal: The internet is one of the greatest inventions ever, we just don’t always use it properly. Human nature and a critical underinvestment in teaching critical thinking skills are the bigger contributing factors.
This is fantastic. Maybe all the TikTok users will evacuate and never return.
July 17th
Record high: 104 in 1980
Record low: 66 in 1895
Thank you for this daily wisdom on weather and other things. We as Houstonians should be very proud to have your relevant and necessary information. Indeed, we have all seen how weather and pending storms are critical to our lives. You add a touch of humor and it makes the daily read so worth it. I even read it when I’m traveling! I never comment or rate things but Space City Weather is five star – excellent work and thank you!
No human is unaware of the linkage between source and credibility, even when gossiping, more importantly with news or politics. What is discouraging is the low level of underdtanding these days that taking risks is like gambling, sometimes you get it right, sometimes you get it wrong….
Govt and scientists may need to enforce their copyright of images of data and models on 99% of wild weather content creators, fair use does not cover reusing their predictive info and pretty images to in 5 minutes of lazy talking make competing predictions.
As social media coverage and exploitation rises, human brains empty out. I just cannot fathom the stupidity of people in this world.