Arctic air is coming to Texas, possibly as early as Sunday morning

Good morning. There are some changes in the forecast for our upcoming cold spell, which looks to arrive earlier than anticipated. There is also a slight chance of some wintry precipitation on Sunday night into Monday morning, but the overall odds remain against this for now. The key point is this: There remains a lot of uncertainty about the details of this Arctic outbreak, but they should come into better focus over the next 24 to 36 hours. So please be patient. Matt and I will be here all along the way to tell you what we know, and what we don’t. For now, any preparations you make for the cold should be completed by the end of Saturday.

Thursday

As expected there is fog, some of it dense, across much of the metro region this morning. As it clears we’ll see partly sunny skies and warm temperatures today, with highs pushing into the mid-70s. Southerly winds, gusting at times to 20 or even 25 mph, will be possible. Conditions change tonight as a fast-moving front drops through the area. Expect it to arrive near Katy and The Woodlands a couple of hours after midnight, push into Houston during the wee hours, and move offshore before sunrise. A broken line of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, may accompany the front. Overall rain chances are fairly low, however, as I expect a capping inversion to hold sway.

Highs will be in the 70s today … for the last time in quite a while. (Weather Bell)

Friday

This will be a cold, blustery day. Skies will be sunny, but winds will be strong out of the north, gusting to 35 mph or so at times. If you’re like me and just finished picking up limbs from winds earlier this week, prepare for round two. Highs will reach the upper 50s, but may stop there. Winds will drop off pretty significantly during the afternoon and evening hours, and this will allow for ideal cooling conditions overnight. I expect lows in most of the Houston metro areas to remain above freezing, but a light freeze is possible for inland areas.

Saturday

After the cold start this will be the last warm-ish day before the Arctic front arrives. We’re looking at partly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the low 60s. Winds will be light. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the low- to mid-40s.

Sunday

Alright, here’s where the uncertainty kicks in. We’re just coming into range of some of the higher-resolution models, which tend to do a better job handling the timing of colder air masses like this. As we see additional model runs today, we should continue to get a better focus on the timing of the front. So I want you to understand that my confidence is low here, and we’re going to need to write the forecast in pencil for a little while.

With that said, the high resolution modeling is indicating that the front could reach Houston by around sunrise on Sunday. Yes, you read that right. If this is the case, temperatures on Sunday morning could be in the 30s for Houston marathon, with northerly winds. (I don’t expect precipitation at this time). This obviously is a significant change from previous forecasts, and something we’ll need to fine-tune. Again, it depends on the timing of the front.

A widespread freeze looks likely for Sunday night, with areas inland of Interstate 10 possibly seeing lows in the mid-20s.

As to the question of freezing precipitation, there are hints of it in the models but nothing concrete. We really need to see more data from the high-resolution outputs before I have any confidence. For now I’d rate the chance of seeing any wintry precipitation, either in the form of sleet or freezing rain, at about 25 percent. I still don’t think it will be significant issue for roadways, but obviously it’s something we’re going to be watching closely.

Current forecast low temperatures for Tuesday morning. (Weather Bell)

Monday

This will be a cold day, with highs likely in the mid-30s for most of the metro area. As part of this Arctic front, lows will bottom out on Monday and Tuesday nights. Again, with these temperatures, there is some considerable uncertainty. For areas south of Interstate 10 we are probably looking at lows in the low to mid-20s, whereas areas further inland will be upper teens to low 20s. We will see.

We’ll have another update this afternoon to see where we are with the frontal timing, and lows early next week.

46 thoughts on “Arctic air is coming to Texas, possibly as early as Sunday morning”

  1. Thank you, Eric. We have a trip planned this weekend are are due back early Monday, so I’ll winterize before I go rather than when I get back

    • Keith, you may think about just shutting off your water entirely at the street as well since you will not be home.

  2. Sounds like ideal Marathon weather assuming it stays dry and calm! Run like the wind Eric!

  3. Being a fellow runner on Sunday, this is less than ideal. But it is what it is, I’ve run worse at the Houston Marathon. One request can you please put out a one paragraph statement on Saturday morning just dealing with the Sunday marathon, thanks.

  4. And here comes my anxiety….Guess I’ll be taking the safest route and shut my off my water at the main.

    • Madame, i suggest also purging the water from the lines as well. It worked for us the last two major cold blasts. Perhaps draw some water in the tub for the commodes.

      In Dec 2022 , although we did not lose power, I still had an ice plug in my kitchen pipe. Fortunately there were no repercussions from this, but i learned my lesson, the temp drops below 27, the house goes dry.

      • Yes, I have plans to do that. And the company that installed my tankless HWH (after the Feb 2021 freeze killed my old one) gave me instructions on how to purge the small amount of water that will be in it.

      • If your pipes froze and broke last time, requiring $$$$ to repair, you would prepare also. Preparation eliminates the panic.

        • My underground sprinkler system broke last time. It was miserable and left me with a $900 water bill because i had NO idea.

      • I have a crawl space. Most of the pipes are down there. In addition I have a tankless hot water heater and washing machine in my non-insulated, detached garage. I don’t wish to take the chance and have to replace them. But, thanks for making fun of my stress.

    • If the lows are only in the 20s, and temperatures are rising above freezing every day, then pipes aren’t going to have too much risk. But yes, you can see evidence of global cooling, because, when Houston was built, open crawlspace with exposed pipes was typical, and nobody had to worry back in those days.

      • I had open crawl space in all of my houses in the Puget Sound area and never worried as much as I do here.

  5. A 25% chance of freezing rain/sleet should be more than enough to get the local media fear mongers out on the highest bridges and overpasses “reporting” on the upcoming Icepocolypse.

  6. My son is headed back to Austin this weekend for the Spring semester. Will the roads be ok Sunday afternoon for his trip ? Should he stay back until Wednesday/Thursday?

  7. It’s Texas! LOL. I’ve been here since 1991 and have seen some strange and/or some severe weather! February 2021 was one of the worst. We’ll get through it like we always do. 🙂

  9. As a photographer for the marathon… I certainly hope it’s not in the 30s. At least it isn’t a constant drizzle like it was a couple years ago.

  10. I’m surprised no one in here has mentioned the ERCOT notice:

    -quote-
    A “Weather Watch” has been issued by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) as the state is expected to experience a deep freeze next week. The “Weather Watch” was issued for Monday, Jan. 15, to Wednesday, Jan. 17.

  11. Why don’t home builders in this area make homes less susceptible to cold snaps? I grew up in New England and we never had to worry about these things. But now I’ll go through the routine of wrapping the pipes, dripping the water, opening the cabinet doors under sinks, turning the heat up, and praying.

    • The weather is cooling due to people tinkering with the climate, and now this is a problem. When much of Houston was built, in the 1950s, the winter in Houston was typically not lower than 30 degrees at night.

      • That is utterly bogus. We used to be in hardiness zone 8b. If that was accurate, the coldest annual temperature was on average 15-20 degrees.

      • Not to be rude but that is just simply not true. Temperatures dropped into the teens in Houston multiple times in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. It actually has dropped into the single digits in Houston on 4 occasions throughout history. February 12th and 13th 1899, January 18th 1930, and December 23rd 1989. In February 1899 it was so cold that parts of the Galveston Bay froze. Yes, It is true that most of the winters in the 1950s were mild, but a major arctic blast hit this area in late January 1951, dropping temperatures below freezing for 4 days in a row with a record low of 14 on February 2nd 1951. The city also experienced its worst ice storm in recorded history, as ice accumulations reached 1 inch in some places from this same event in 1951. This notion that very cold weather in Texas is something new, is historically inaccurate. Research is your best friend.

        • Also, the summer of 1951 was pretty hot with 8 100+ degree days with 6 nights not dropping below 80 degrees. There was also a terrible drought that struck the state throughout the 50s, with the worst year being 1956. This was followed by heavy rain and a major Brazos River flood in the spring of 1957. So, going from one extreme to the other is also not a foreign concept in Texas.

      • Not sure the weather is cooling? I don’t where you’ve heard that? Maybe you’re older than I am but I’m in my early 50s and remember very cold weather in the 70s and 80s. I think it was December of 1983 where we had two weeks of freezing rain with high temps in the upper 20s and lows in the teens. And then in 1989 we had a low of 7 degrees. As a native Houstonian it seems our summers have gotten hotter and our winters milder.

    • Cold snaps to the point of freezing temps are more common in New England than SE TX annually.

      Could they build houses diffrent, yes but then it could lead to an increase in new home prices

    • I agree. Growing up in the Industrial Midwest, it sometimes got to MINUS 20 or lower and we never broke a pipe. Never ran the water, either. Why? For one, the water came in underground, into typically the laundry room, which was in the basement or the lower level of a split tri-level, not the el-cheapo through the side of the house as it’s done here. Second, the water never was routed through an uninsulated space. But here, that would mean the builders would lose a small amount of profit, so it isn’t done. And of course, weak building codes.

  13. so far all the weather apps still show both Saturday and Sunday with a high of 60ies and low of 40ies … are they just behind or is the uncertainty that large?

    • the uncertainty really is that large lol the models have been all over the place which means the apps are also changing constantly with really drastic differences in the numbers and days

  14. Fun. My son was planning to move back to Texas A&M Monday, but now I’m worried about icy roads. I know B/CS isn’t in the metro area, but what are your thoughts about that region in terms of road conditions?

  15. not just here, this is becoming an issue everywhere. I have family in Uruguay and they have seen many extremes there that never happened before. People deny all they want but the weather is changing really quickly.

  16. Yeah, I’m getting tired of living with “historic weather events”. Send me somewhere safe.

    • Blackhawks Fan, there is no where safe. Being from Houston, we found a small place in CO, so we thought no hurricanes, no floods, we are up in the mountains…WRONG, there is the constant threat of wildfires, and we deal with major freezes (but we are better prepared up there to manage freezing) so there is always going to be something somewhere. Pays to prepare

  17. My guess is for the college returns is that they’d be better to go Saturday ahead of the drop and ride out the cold snap at school, if you’re reasonably confident the schools are ready for the weather in terms of facilities, access to meals, etc.

  20. He never followed up, lol must be scrambling to get new model runs and forecasts since ch 13 dropped a bombshell

    “We’ll have another update this afternoon to see where we are with the frontal timing, and lows early next week.“

  21. Whether you’re writing in pencil or pen we appreciate your continued attention to the details for everyone’s safety.

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