August doing as August does: heat, humidity, and tropics acting up

For those of you who have lived through August a time or two in Houston, you’ll know there’s really not much escaping the heat. Fortunately, we’re not going to fall under a classic heat dome this week, so highs should remain below the triple digits. But there will be enough high pressure to keep rain chances fairly low. The bottom line is that it’s an easy forecast: hot, humid, with scattered afternoon rain chances. The tropics are more interesting, so we’ll discuss them below as well.

Monday

Did you like Sunday’s weather? Because that is what in the cards for today, with highs in the mid-90s and partly to mostly sunny skies. Most of the area has about a one-in-four chance of seeing a brief shower later this afternoon as the sea breeze gets fired up. Winds will be out of the south, gusting up to 20 mph later this afternoon. Overnight lows may briefly drop below 80 degrees overnight, but will remain warm and sticky.

Tuesday through Friday

Right now we just don’t see much variability in the forecast through Friday. So for now, expect Groundhog Day-like weather, except for the odd shower that pops up during the afternoon hours.

Saturday and Sunday

Maybe this pattern changes by the weekend, but more likely it probably won’t. So expect to see more partly sunny skies this weekend, with highs in the mid 90s, and a few stray showers. We are in the middle of August, and this is the real Houston weather we all know and hate. Love! I mean love. This is the real Houston weather we all know and love. Yeah. That’s what I mean.

Tropics

It has been exactly one month since the demise of Hurricane Elsa, and it sure has been a nice break in the Atlantic tropics. But alas, all good things must come to an end and now the tropics are very much coming to life. There are a couple of blobs on the National Hurricane Center’s five-day forecast.

94L

We’ll start with the system that has a better chance of developing sooner. This system has about a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next two days as it moves across the Caribbean islands. It should affect Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, with rains, if not strong winds as well.

The jury is really out on whether 94L will strengthen much beyond a tropical storm as it must not only interact with these islands, and the overall pattern is not not ideal for intensification. But with that said the models have been under-selling 94L and it would not surprise me to see a strong tropical storm or modest hurricane near Cuba or South Florida by Saturday of this week.

After that? Perhaps it will ride up the Florida peninsula or track a bit further westward into the Gulf of Mexico before turning north. Regardless, at this time, direct effects for Texas seem a low probability. We’ll keep watching regardless.

93L

This system is far less organized, and will likely remain so for a while. However, as the tropical wave moves westward into the Caribbean Sea this weekend, it may eventually find more favorable conditions under which to organize. (Or it could very simply fade away). Regardless, it’s something to continue to watch if its holds together this week. Why? Because in Texas we never really want to see low pressure systems in the Caribbean Sea of Gulf of Mexico this time of year.