Eric Berger

Good morning. Much of the region outside the inner urban core of Houston is starting the day in the 30s, and we’re going to see a pair of even chillier nights before a warming trend this weekend. A front that will move through right around the opening of the new year will return us to winter-like weather, and later next week we’ll also see decent rain chances return.

Thursday

Today will be sunny and cool, with high temperatures in the 50s thanks to prevailing high pressure. Winds will be from the northwest, at about 10 mph, with the potential for some higher gusts. Lows tonight will drop into the 30s for pretty much the entire area, with the possibility of a light freeze for outlying areas. However, it still looks like most of the metro area surrounding the Houston area will remain just above freezing. As I noted earlier this week, Houston has not recorded a freeze this calendar year.

Friday

This day will be almost a carbon copy of Thursday in terms of sunshine, winds, temperatures and another cold night.

Saturday

Temperatures start to moderate some this weekend, with sunny skies and highs in the low to mid-60s. Winds turn more west and then southwesterly. The air remains dry. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 40s for most.

New Year’s Eve

Winds will briefly turn southerly on Sunday, and this should allow temperatures to pop up to around 70 degrees, or a tick warmer. A few clouds will also form as atmospheric moisture increases. This should all make for a mild evening to ring in the new year, with temperatures in the low 60s. The only real question is the timing of the front, and whether there will be enough moisture to squeeze out some rain showers. At this point I’d say there’s about a 20 percent chance of light rain to the east of Interstate 45, and lesser chances to the west late on Sunday night, and early on Monday morning, as the front passes through. This frontal passage should push lows for Monday morning down to around 50 degrees.

Next week

New Year’s Day should be partly sunny, with highs in the low 60s. It should also be dry. But that changes by Tuesday as the overall pattern turns more favorable for rainfall. Tuesday and Tuesday night should see the best chances, but each day next week after Monday should have at least a shot of rainfall. Total accumulations for the week, for most areas, probably will be on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain. In terms of temperatures, we’re looking mostly at days in upper 50s or lower 60s, and nights in the 40s. So a chilly start to 2024.

Good morning. This post has come out a bit late because Matt is traveling, and I needed to complete my final long training run for the Houston Marathon. So I awoke at an unseemly hour. The upside is that I can attest that it’s a lovely winter morning outside—I was out there for several hours getting to mile 20. The downside is that I’m pretty wrecked. Also, to the truck driver on 646 who laid into your horn pretty good early this morning, I’m gonna assume that honk was an ‘attaboy’ rather than a ‘get off the road a-hole.’ Because it’s the holiday season and all.

Wednesday

After starting out in the 40s, the region will warm nicely today with mostly sunny skies. Highs generally should get into the low- to mid-60s with plenty of dry air. Winds will be light, from the northwest. Temperatures on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 30s, so a little cooler due to clear skies and a bit of a reinforcing front.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of chilly, winter days. Both will see sunny skies and northwesterly winds with highs in the 50s. The question in regard to the forecast comes with low temperatures on Thursday and Friday nights. It still looks like the Houston metro area will remain just above freezing, with lows in the range of 35 to 38 degrees. But outlying areas, including Montgomery County and other inland regions, face the distinct possibility of a light freeze.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

The holiday weekend will see a warming trend. Skies should be mostly sunny on Saturday, New Year’s Eve, and New Year’s Day, with respective highs around 60 degrees, upwards of 70 degrees, and then back down to around 60 degrees to start 2024. If your plans including celebrating the New Year, I’d anticipate temperatures in the 50s in the hours leading up to midnight on New Year’s Eve. There is a slight chance of rain, perhaps 10 or 20 percent, as a front rolls through Houston late on Sunday night, or early Monday morning. It probably will be a dry front as there isn’t much atmospheric moisture to work with, but we’ll have to see. All in all, conditions like fine to start a new year.

Next week

Most of next week looks to have highs of around 60 degrees, give or take, with lows generally in the 40s. A storm system will likely bring some showers on Tuesday and Wednesday, but as of now accumulations aren’t anything to get worked up about—probably a few tenths of an inch.

Good morning. I hope everyone had a pleasant Christmas weekend, and you’re enjoying the holiday season. Mother Nature certainly has gotten into the spirit, with mostly sunny skies and seasonally chilly weather. We’re going to see continued cool weather throughout this week, with the slight possibility of a freeze later this week. I’ll talk a bit more about that below. Also, due to holiday travel, I wanted you to know that tomorrow’s post may be a bit late. Thanks for understanding.

As for a freeze, Houston has not recorded one this calendar year at its official weather monitoring station, Bush Intercontinental Airport. Our current streak of daily minimum temperatures above freezing is 364, dating back to December 26 of last year. Houston has gone a full calendar year without a freeze before, but it’s quite rare. It happened once in the 1930s, and once in the 1950s. The city’s longest streak of days with a minimum temperature above freezing, 774 days, was finally snapped on March 8, 1932. The second longest streak is 396 days, ending on January 14, 1957. Our current streak ranks as the seventh longest on record. There’s maybe a one-in-three chance we snap it this week, I’d say.

Tuesday

Today should be another day with highs in the upper 50s to 60 degrees, with a light northerly wind. On Monday we saw some lingering clouds, due to a frothy jet stream high above, and we may see some more today. With partly cloudy skies tonight, look for lows to drop into the low 40s for much of Houston again.

Wednesday

I expect a fully sunny day, with highs in the low 60s. Winds will generally be light, out of the northwest. There is plenty of cold air aloft in the atmosphere, and that should help cool down temperatures on Wednesday night into the upper 30s for much of the metro area, with cooler conditions further inland, and warmer ones near the coast.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the week looks downright chilly as a reinforcing front comes through. Both days should see highs in the 50s, with sunny skies. The real question comes at night, when there’s the possibility of a light freeze in the Houston metro area, and a bit of a harder freeze further inland. It is going to be a close call. Right now I’d go with lows on both nights of about 35 degrees in the urban center of Houston, with colder conditions for outlying areas. If you’re in areas such as Katy or The Woodlands, I’d definitely plan on the distinct possibility of a freeze. Areas closer to the coast should stay warmer. Needless to say, we’ll continue refining the forecast this week.

Saturday, New Year’s Eve, and New Year’s Day

By the holiday weekend we should be warming up, with a fair amount of sunshine. Saturday should be sunny, with highs in the low 60s. Lows on Sunday morning will drop only into the 40s. Daytime temperatures on New Year’s Eve will rise to about 70 degrees, give or take, with partly sunny skies. The next front may arrive late on New Year’s Eve or early on New Year’s Day, and its timing will in part determine our weather for the holiday. Fortunately, it doesn’t look like the frontal passage will be too messy. So right now I’d expect temperatures in the 50s to ring in the new year. Although we cannot entirely rule out some rain with the front, overall chances are fairly low, so I’m cautiously optimistic about holiday celebrations.

As for the start of the new year, the forecast starts to get fuzzy, but I expect we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds with temperatures in the 60s. It will be cool, but probably not cold. The atmosphere starts to get a little more active next week, so by Tuesday or Wednesday we should start to see our next really decent shot of rainfall.

Good morning. I sincerely hope this holiday weekend finds you healthy, happy, and well. This Saturday morning weather update is intended to get you up to speed on what to expect for now through Christmas Day.

Saturday

We’re starting the morning out with mild conditions—temperatures in the 60s, moderate humidity, and lots of cloud cover. We’re not going to see much, if any sunshine today, and the clouds will help corral high temperatures to around 70 degrees. I also think we’ll remain rain free for most of today, with only the potential for some scattered, light showers through the afternoon hours.

However, by late this afternoon or by around sunset, we should see the development of showers and thunderstorms to the south and southwest of Houston, pushing into the metro area. This may put a damper on outdoor activities this evening. The bulk of this system should move through Houston by the early morning hours of Sunday.

After that? We may see a break until a second round of storms on Sunday. I think this is the most likely scenario for inland areas. However, areas closer to the coast and south of Interstate 10 may see additional showers and thunderstorms developing through Sunday morning. Lows tonight will only drop into the low 60s for most.

Christmas Eve

As noted above we’re going to continue to see the potential for scattered showers on Sunday morning, with the possibility of thunderstorms. By mid- or late-morning we should see a more organized system—probably a line of showers, but maybe just a congealed mass—move in from the west ahead of the cold front. These showers will work their way through Houston during the afternoon hours before finally clearing to the east by around sunset, give or take a couple of hours. I don’t anticipate significant flooding, and at this time we’re not going to declare a Stage 1 flood alert. However, conditions during the daytime on Sunday will at times be messy, and you’ll need to be wary of the potential for thunderstorms. Take care if you’re going to be out and about. Most locations will pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, but there is the potential for isolated areas to see greater totals.

Temperature wise, Christmas Eve will feel fairly muggy, with highs around 70 degrees. Lows, in the wake of the front, will drop into the 50s overnight.

Christmas Day and beyond

Christmas Day, itself, brings no concerns about severe weather. We’re going to see mostly sunny skies, with highs perhaps holding in the upper 50s. With a northerly breeze it will feel rather brisk. Lows on Christmas night will fall down to around 40 in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Most of next week looks sunny and cold, with highs in the 50s to maybe 60 degrees, and lows in the 30s and 40s. It’s probably not going to freeze in the Houston metro area, but winter is definitely going to stick around for awhile.

Unless the precipitation forecast takes a turn for the worst—and yes, I’ll be watching—this will be our last update until Tuesday, December 26. I hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas and a happy holiday season.