Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston faces four more warm days before take out first deep dive into much cooler weather. How cold? Well, most of the Houston region will likely dip into the low- to mid-40s at some point next week, and a few outlying areas might actually see the upper 30s. So yes, it’s going to be sweater weather. Halloween, as well, looks breezy and cool with temperatures of perhaps 50 degrees by the time kids start knocking on doors.

Thursday

The story for today is rainfall, or at least its potential. An upper-level disturbance will produce a mass of showers and thunderstorms to the northwest of Houston that will slowly sag down toward the area today. These storms should reach the College Station area by around noon, and push into the central Houston area later this afternoon and evening. It’s worth noting that, as they push into Houston, the showers will be losing their oomph. So if you live inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69, you have a pretty good chance of picking up 0.5 to 1.5 inch of rain between now and Friday morning, with higher isolated totals beneath heavier showers. Areas further to the southeast, particularly closer to the coast, should see substantially less rain.

Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies today, with highs in the mid-80s. Winds will be out of the south at about 10 mph, and gusts up to 20 mph. Rain chances should end late this evening, and almost certainly before midnight. Lows tonight will drop only into the mid-70s.

Friday

This will be another warm, humid day with highs in the mid-80s. We’ll again see a mix of sunshine and clouds. Rain chances will not be as high as Thursday, but we’re still going to see at least a smattering of showers, if not more. I’d peg rain chances at about 40 percent, with lesser accumulations than Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see continued warm and humid weather, with two days of partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s. Both days will have a low chance of rain, perhaps 20 percent. All eyes, meteorologically at least, will be on the forthcoming front. But at this point it probably won’t reach the Houston metro area until late Sunday evening, perhaps crossing through downtown around midnight, give or take a few hours. We’ll likely see some showers will the front, and drier and cooler air almost immediately after its passage.

Next week

High temperatures on Monday are likely to be in the 50s, area-wide, so bundle those kids up as they head off to school. Add on to this mostly cloudy skies and blustery northerly winds, with the possibility of some scattered showers, and it’s going to feel downright chilly. Lows Monday night will drop into the upper-40s, probably.

So what about Halloween? I think it will be another partly to mostly cloudy day with highs in the 50s—perhaps even in the low 50s. There may be a few lingering showers, but I think skies will dry up before it is time to trick-or-treat. It’s possible that a reinforcing front drives low temperatures into the lower 40s by Wednesday or Thursday morning, but the forecast is starting to get fuzzy by then. We should start to warm up heading into next weekend.

Good morning. Houston will remain in a warm pattern through most of the weekend before a robust cold front arrives on Sunday evening or early Monday to cool us down significantly. There will also be some rain chances throughout the period—before, during, and after the front. My sense is that most of this rain should be gone by the time of Halloween, but the current forecast looks pretty cold for trick-or-treating, with temperatures likely in the 50s.

Wednesday

Another warm day is on tap for the Houston region today, with highs in the mid-80s and southeasterly winds at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny with the warm flow. Some rain showers will be possible today, but they should be fairly scattered, and most likely closer to the coast and south of Interstate 10. Slight rain chances will continue overnight, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s.

Thursday

This day will see a mix of clouds and sunshine, with highs in the mid-80s. By late morning or early afternoon, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms should start to sag through areas such as College Station, and then down into the Houston area. The upper-level disturbance driving these storms is not super potent, and my sense is that most areas will see 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain, with the potential for a few areas to see 1 inch or more. The best chance for higher accumulations will be the western half of the metro area.

Friday

Expect partly sunny skies with highs in the mid-80s. A chance of rain will linger, perhaps 30 percent.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend will be warm and humid, with highs in the mid-80s and mostly sunny skies. Rain chances on Saturday are low, but not non-existent. Sunday is a bit more interesting as it looks like the front may come to the region a little bit faster. For now, I think most of the area will still see a fairly warm and humid day, with highs in the mid-80s. Rain chances will depend on the timing of the front, as I think there is a pretty good likelihood that showers accompany the frontal passage.

Next week

Who is ready for some cold weather?

By Monday morning we should see much drier and chillier Canadian air flowing into the Houston region. Highs will depend on cloud cover, but Monday through Wednesday of next week may top out in the upper 50s, with overnight lows in the 40s. This is positively winter-like for Houston, especially with blustery northerly winds on Monday.

As for Halloween, right now I think we’ll see clearing conditions, but temperatures during the trick-or-treating hour are likely to be in the mid-50s, probably. So be prepared. Temperatures should gradually warm during the second half of next week.

Good morning. Houston faces another six warm days, with some healthy rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday, before a sweeping front drives us truly into fall-like weather. And with the potential for nights in the 40s, it may feel almost winter-like for a few days next week. The timing of all this lines up with Halloween, so I’m still not particularly confident in that forecast yet. But I’ll discuss some of the uncertainties below.

Tuesday

Today should be a sunny and warm day, with a fairly robust southerly flow. Winds probably will gust as high as 25 mph from the south. For most of us, highs will top out in the mid-80s, although a few inland locations may briefly pop into the upper-80s. With a slightly drier flow it won’t be quite as humid as Monday, and rain chances should be essentially zero. Lows tonight drop into the mid-70s for most.

Wednesday and Thursday

As high pressure eases away from the area we’re going to see a surge in atmospheric moisture levels during the middle of the week. This is a tricky forecast, because this much moisture will tend to support heavy rainfall. At the same time, the most favorable atmospheric dynamics—primarily a forcing mechanism to lift this surface moisture—will lie over Central and West Texas. The bottom line is that I think most of our area will probably get between 0.25 and 0.75 inch of rain this week. However, there is a risk for some areas to receive 2 inches or more, particularly the further inland one lives. Skies, otherwise, will be partly sunny with highs in the mid-80s.

Friday

Rain chances will start to diminish by the end of the week, but not go away entirely. We’re still looking at a warm-ish day, with highs in the mid-80s and partly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect mostly sunny skies this weekend, with highs in the mid-80s. If you’re like me and you’re looking for a time to get in a long training run for the Houston Marathon with low humidity, I’m afraid there are no good options. Dewpoints look fairly high throughout the weekend, so expect humid days and nights, with lows of around 70 degrees.

Next week

We still have lots of questions about the timing of the cold front, and the amount of Canadian air it will usher into the region. So from here out you’re going to get my best guess. I think the front probably will push into Houston sometime on Monday, possibly during the morning hours. There will be some initial showers with the front. And then it’s possible some light showers will linger into the Monday night and Tuesday morning. However, I do think this will probably end before it’s time to trick-or-treat on Halloween (next Tuesday). We’ll see. At this point I think much of the area will see highs drop into the 60s next week, with lows possibly in the 40s. It’s still a week or more out, so the usual caveats apply.

Good morning! I want to thank the hundreds of people who came out to celebrate Fall Day on Sunday afternoon—it was lovely to meet so many of you, and see some old friends. Shout out to the family who drove all the way down from College Station. I also want to thank Reliant for supporting such a great event. And finally, today is the eighth anniversary of Space City Weather. I can’t believe it’s been that long, because it only feels like Matt and I are getting started.

As for our weather, there won’t be much change for the next week or so. We’re going to be in a warm-ish pattern for fall, with highs mostly in the mid-80s and lows in the low- to mid-70s. We’ll also see some decent rain chances later this week. This pattern will hold through the weekend before a fairly strong front is likely to arrive by or before Halloween, which could drop daytime highs into the 60s. Still a long ways to go, but I wanted you to know there will be an end to this warmer and muggier weather, eventually.

Monday

At Fall Day several people asked me what the weather would be like for next week, and I simply pointed to the sky. What we saw on Sunday is more or less likely what we should see today, and for the rest of the week. We’re going to see partly sunny skies, and highs in the mid- to upper-80s on Monday. Winds will be out of the south, as they will for much of this week, gusting to about 20 mph. A few areas near and along the Gulf Freeway saw rainfall this morning as some atmospheric moisture surged into the area, but I think that’s mostly it for rain chances until Wednesday. Lows tonight will drop into the low 70s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Tuesday

This is the one day this week that I’m confident will see mostly sunny skies. So if your plans require sunshine, Tuesday’s the day. Look for highs in the upper 80s, with southerly winds. Overnight lows drop into the low 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

A slug of tropical moisture will move into the region during the second half of the work week. Since much of this moisture is coming from the Pacific, the best rain chances will be west of Interstate 35, in Central and West Texas. The Houston region should be on the periphery of the main action, with most of the area picking up perhaps 0.25 to 1 inch of rain through Friday. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies otherwise, with highs in the mid-80s, and lows in the low- to mid-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

For now there appears to be little chance of the front making it through by the weekend, so we can probably expect partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-80s, and continued muggy air. Rain chances are not zero, but at this point they don’t look particularly high, either.

Next week

At this point I would pencil in the aforementioned front for next Monday, which hopefully will be the case as it may bring an additional round of showers. It would be nice to have this weather out of the way for next Tuesday, Halloween, but for now there’s just no way to be sure. In any case, after the front we probably will have a few days with highs in the 60s or 70s, and lows in the 40s or 50s. November, in other words, should feel like November.