Eric Berger

Good morning. Much of the region saw beneficial rains on Tuesday, with widespread accumulations of 0.5 to 1.5 inch. However some areas, particularly in Brazoria County, saw in excess of 6 inches of rainfall. Conditions today will continue to favor the potential for heavy rainfall, particularly to the west of Interstate 45, including the Brazoria, Fort Bend, Wharton, and Matagorda County areas.

With this in mind, we’re extending our Stage 1 flood alert to the entire Houston metro area, through Thursday evening. In addition we’re raising the flood alert to Stage 2 for Brazoria and Wharton Counties, which lie to the southwest of Houston, and includes the cities of Sugar Land and Angleton. There is the potential for another 3 to 6 inches of rainfall in these areas for the period from now until Thursday night, and this could cause flash flooding. Please continue to be aware of weather and road conditions for the next couple of days.

Wednesday

As noted above, the overall pattern favors the majority of storms forming over the western half of the Houston metro area today, as this will be where a majority of the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is flowing inland. Look for on and off showers and thunderstorms today, with the potential for some street flooding. High temperatures today will reach the low 80s for most of the area, with mostly cloudy skies, and occasionally gusty winds from the southeast. Rain chances will slacken somewhat overnight, but not go away.

Thursday

A day that looks similar, in terms of overall weather to Wednesday. The difference that instead of the storms moving inland from the Gulf, there will be a more north-to-south movement in association with an advancing front. In any case, we’ll continue the flood alerts through Thursday evening as the potential for heavy rainfall will remain in place. High temperatures will again reach the low- to mid-80s, but with the front’s influence low temperatures will probably drop into the low 70s.

Friday

Rain chances will linger into Friday morning, but after that we should start to see some partially clearing skies. Look for highs in the mid-80s, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 60s. Around this time you may be thinking well, that wasn’t much of a front. Fortunately, a reinforcing front is on the way Friday night and Saturday morning that will truly usher in fall-like conditions.

Saturday and Sunday

Northerly winds should turn fairly gusty by Saturday morning, bringing much drier air into the region. Look for highs in the upper 70s on Saturday, with partly sunny skies. Humidity levels will drop noticeably during the day. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the upper 50s for inland areas, and Sunday looks to be just about perfect. Expect sunny skies, lighter winds, and highs in the mid-70s. We’re officially declaring Sunday to be Fall Day in Houston. (If you’re wondering, yes, we’re trying to organize a Fall Day gathering again this year, but it won’t be this weekend.) Lows on Sunday night will again drop into the 50s for most of the area.

Next week

We’ll see the onshore flow resume by Monday or so, and that should set the stage for warmer days in the mid- to upper-80s for most of the week. There are two things I’m watching for, one of which is a potential surge in tropical moisture during the second half of next week. This would be in association with a tropical system that crosses Mexico from the Pacific Ocean and moves into the Gulf of Mexico. For now the details are fairly vague, and it’s possible that this entire mess remains mostly offshore. Additionally, it looks like another front of some sort should arrive some time next weekend to cool us down and dry out the atmosphere. We’ll see.

Good morning. Houston will see a significant pattern change over the next few days, as a weakening ridge of high pressure allows for the influx of tropical moisture that will increase cloud cover and rain chances. This should bring cooler weather—some areas may have seen their last 90-degree days for awhile—and some much needed rainfall.

Given the tropical nature of this rainfall, some locations may see in excess of 4 inches, and this could lead to street flooding. For that reason, we are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert for areas south of Interstate 10 through Thursday. As usual in Houston, rainfall totals will be highly variable from location to location. So while you may not see heavy rainfall at your house, a neighborhood a few miles away may well be. A Stage 1 flood alert simply means that you should be aware of the potential for street flooding, not to expect widespread mayhem.

The overall pattern will also favor heavy rainfall across other parts of the state this week, including the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex later on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Matt will be covering the threat of rains and flooding across other parts of Texas, including San Antonio and Austin, on The Eyewall this morning.

Tuesday

We’re starting to see showers move in from the coast this morning, and most of the area has about a 60 percent chance of rainfall today. The threat of heavy rainfall is higher closer to the coast and source of moisture, which is why we’ve put in a State 1 flood alert for areas south of Interstate 10. Highs today will be dependent on local cloud cover and rainfall amounts, but I suspect that much of the area south of I-10 will top out in the upper 80s, while areas further inland have the potential to reach the lower 90s. Rain chances will slacken some on Tuesday night, but not go away entirely.

Wednesday and Thursday

The region will remain in a favorable environment for rain showers on Wednesday and Thursday, with plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with and an unstable environment. Showers may be especially pronounced on Thursday afternoon or evening as a cold front pushes down into the area and slows down. In any case, we’ll continue to see the threat of some street flooding in areas where the heavier rains setup. Rain accumulations will likely vary between 1 and 5 inches across the region this week, with the highest totals to the southwest of Houston. Highs will probably top out in the upper 80s with partly to mostly cloudy skies for most areas.

Friday

The front will push into the area later on Thursday and Thursday night, but we’re not going to feel its effects right away. However, with mostly cloudy skies on Friday, I do think highs will top out in the mid-80s. Some decent rain chances will remain on Friday as drier air will lag behind the front’s passage somewhat. Lows on Friday night will drop into the upper 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

The drier air you’re all waiting for should finally start to arrive with a reinforcing front on Friday night into Saturday morning. Some rain showers will linger on Saturday, and skies will likely remain mostly cloudy throughout the day. Would you believe me if I said highs may top out in the upper 70s? Well, I think that’s possible. Moreover, most of the area inland of Interstate 10 probably will drop into the upper 50s on Saturday night. Sunday looks to be the pick of the litter, in terms of weather, with highs in the mid-70s and partly to mostly sunny skies. No kidding. Lows on Sunday night will be modestly chilly again.

Next week

By Monday or Tuesday of next week our weather should be back into the 80s, with increasing humidity. But I don’t think we’re going back into full-on summer, and there are some hints of another front by around next weekend. That’s not something I’m fully confident in, however.

I have been waiting to write this post for four months.

For four very, very long months.

The four hottest months of summer in Houston on record, in fact. This summer was absolutely brutal in terms of daytime highs, overnight lows, and a drastic drought. So yeah, I’ve been waiting to write that the greater Houston region is going to see some meaningful rainfall, to be followed by the season’s first bonafide cold front. Relief is coming, and boy oh boy, is it going to be sweet. Look for high rain chances on Tuesday through Thursday, followed by a frontal passage on Friday. And then? Low humidity and cool nights!

As long as we’re writing about happy tidings and Houston, I’d also like to congratulate the Houston Astros and Texans. Like many of you, we’re big fans of the hometown teams, and Sunday was a big day. The Astros came from behind to sneak past the Texas Rangers to win their division, and set themselves up nicely for the playoffs. And behind the stellar play of their new rookies and head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans won their second game in a row. For the first time in a long time they look like a bonafide pro football team with great leadership. So, good tidings all around.

Monday

Today will see a continuation of this weekend’s weather, which is to say hot, sunny, and summer-like. Look for highs generally in the mid-90s, with an easterly wind that will at times be a bit gusty, and plenty of humidity. Lows tonight will drop only into the mid-70s for most of the area. Rain chances are near zero.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

By Tuesday the pattern will begin to change, as the ridge of high pressure that has dominated our weather begins to back away. This will start to open up our region to tropical moisture that will move north from the central Texas coast. Rain chances will increase starting on Tuesday, and remain fairly high through Thursday. Most areas will at least see some light showers each day, with total accumulations likely between 1 to 3 inches over the three day period. A few areas will see more than this, possibly leading to some brief street flooding. Rain chances will be highest to the southwest, near Matagorda Bay, and lowest to the northeast of Houston.

Skies will turn partly to mostly cloudy and this, in concert with the on-and off-again showers should hold high temperatures to around 90 degrees, or slightly above, for much of the region. Expect plenty of humidity, with generally easterly to southeasterly winds.

Friday

We’re now fairly confident in the passage of a cold front on Friday, and this should bring an end to the showers later in the day. Highs on Friday will be highly dependent on your location, but generally we should be in the 80s, with drier air steadily moving in during the afternoon and overnight hours. Lows should drop into the 60s for all but the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

These look like a fine pair of sunny days with highs of around 80 degrees with drier air. Lows will drop to around 60 degrees in Houston, with some 50s for inland areas. We’ll work out just how cool things will get as we get closer to the weekend, but Sunday and Monday mornings are going to feel absolutely fall like for everyone.

Next week

The cooler weather will hang around at least into Tuesday or so, but after that we’re probably headed back into the upper 80s. As for this mid-90s nonsense we’ve been experiencing of late in Houston, I think we’re done with that for the year.

Good morning. Houston faces at least another week of very warm, late summer weather with fairly low rain chances. However, the big news is that we’re finally starting to see the likelihood of the season’s first real cool front on the horizon. First, the caveats. It’s still about 10 days out, so a lot can happen. Our ability to forecast weather accurately only goes out to 7 to 10 days. However, the signal for this front (see below) is fairly strong. I’ll put it this way: I think the odds of seeing a pretty decent front are better than 50-50 at this point.

Another reason for some hope: It’s time. If we define a front as the fall season’s first day with a temperature of 65 degrees or below, Houston typically sees its first front sometime between the first week of September, and the first week of October. In records dating to 1889, there have been just 14 instances in which the season’s first front arrived on or after October 1, so about a 10 percent chance in any given year. The latest of these came in 1904, when the front was delayed until October 13. This year is going to be close to that, but right now we’re on track for the period from October 7 to 10—so just in time.

Thursday

Fall will feel a long ways away today, however. As high pressure more or less takes control of our weather, we’re going to continue to see high temperatures generally in the mid-90s across the region today, and for awhile. Yesterday we saw some fairly strong thunderstorms develop near Katy, and some isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon or early evening. The most likely areas will be close to the coast. Skies will otherwise be mostly sunny, with light easterly winds. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Friday

Did you like Thursday’s weather? Good, because Friday is pretty much the same.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re not going to see much change in our weather this weekend, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances will, again, be on the order of 20 percent, with the highest odds near the coast. However, by Saturday the flow will turn a bit more northeasterly, and this should bring some slightly drier air into the picture. It won’t be much, but by Sunday morning it should start to may thinks feel a bit more comfortable.

Next week

We’re going to remain warm for most of next week, with highs likely in the vicinity of the mid-90s. However, the overall pattern may favor the influx of some tropical moisture, and this may bring some slightly better rain chances into the forecast by Wednesday, or so. By next weekend is when we’ll be looking for a cold front to arrive. I kind of hate to write about this, because I don’t want to be accused of being a tease. But the reality is that this is the strongest signal we’ve seen for fall’s first front, and the upper air pattern does appear to support its passage. So am I guaranteeing a front? No. I am rather hopeful? Yes. If it doesn’t come, can we all simply agree to blame Matt?