Eric Berger

In brief: We’ll have a couple of more afternoons where some scattered showers will be likely, bringing a bit of welcome rain and briefly cooler temperatures. By this weekend we’ll be pushing the upper 90s, with the chance of hitting 100 degrees for the first time this year in Houston. Also, skies will be hazy due to Saharan dust.

Thursday

Today will have a similar setup to Wednesday, when we saw the development of some scattered thunderstorms across central and some southern parts of the region (mostly) during the afternoon hours. Again we’ll be on the periphery of high pressure, allowing for the seabreeze and daytime heating to do some work.

Rain chances this afternoon are probably about 30 percent, and some areas could see as much as half an inch of rain beneath stronger thunderstorms. Highs will depend on the extent of showers in your locality, but I still expect much of the region to get up into the mid-90s. Winds will be very light, from the southeast at maybe 5 mph. Lows tonight will only drop to about 80 degrees.

Friday

A similar day to Thursday, although perhaps with slightly less rain coverage. Highs again will push into the mid-90s for the most part, with light southerly winds.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks very warm as high pressure becomes a little bit more dominant. Rain chances will go down, close to zero percent on Saturday, and maybe 20 percent or so on Sunday. Daytime highs on Saturday will be in the mid- to upper-90s, and then on Sunday some locations could reach 100 degrees for the first time this year. Please take heat precautions if you’re going to be outside during the middle of the day this weekend.

In addition, we’ll see the influx of Saharan dust, which will produce hazy conditions over the Houston region this weekend. For most people this won’t have significant effects, but it could make sunsets more brilliant.

Next week

Monday will be very hot, bringing the region another chance to hit 100 degrees. There also will be a limited chance of rain showers, perhaps 20 percent. Most of next week should be similar, although slightly cooler. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-90s for the most part, with isolated to scattered showers during the afternoon hours along the seabreeze.

Atlantic tropics

After a (very) brief lull following Tropical Storm Alberto, the Atlantic tropics are starting to come to life. The deep Atlantic seems to be heating up earlier than normal, likely due to the excessively warm temperatures in the main development region of the ocean. We’re starting to see a more active African “wave train,” which is the source of the majority of hurricanes during the Atlantic season. Typically this does not get going for at least another month, but here we are.

There are a couple of active systems, but the one to watch is the trailing disturbance, shown in red on the map above, known as “Invest 95L.” (Invest simply stands for “area of investigation”). We’ll be providing deeper coverage of this system on The Eyewall, but what I would say right now is that there’s a low-end chance this disturbance eventually reaches the Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days time. Really, it’s not something I’d be too concerned about. But we’re keeping an eye on it, just in case.

In brief: Although high pressure is largely dominant, Houston will have a couple of chances to see some spotty thunderstorms today and tonight. Mostly, however, we’re going to see continued hot and sunny weather, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s and plenty of humidity. That forecast holds for as far as the eye can see.

Monthly Q&A

Be sure and check back on the site later this morning, as we’ll be releasing our monthly Q&A at 10 am CT, in which Matt and I answer questions submitted by readers. There are some fun ones this month!

Wednesday

Skies will be mostly sunny today, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s. Generally, the further inland you live, the warmer the temperatures will be. Winds will remain light, from the south at just 5 mph. The real intrigue today and tonight is rain chances. They’re not high, but we could see some briefly lived thunderstorms.

The first opportunity comes during the mid-afternoon hours, as daytime heating combines with the seabreeze to potentially spark some showers and thunderstorms in central Houston, or perhaps closer to the coast. These should be fairly isolated and short-lived. There is also a chance of some storms along a dying front moving south into the region this evening or tonight. Frankly, our model guidance is all over the place, so we could see anything from nothing (probably most likely) to a fairly broad line of storms moving southward late tonight or early Thursday (far less likely). In any case, something to be aware of.

Thursday

Expect continued hot and muggy weather. We could see some additional, isolated showers and thunderstorms due to daytime heating. Overall rain chances are probably only about 10 or 20 percent, however.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Expect more hot weather, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s for the area and plenty of humidity. We’ll continue to see low, but not non-existent rain chances through the weekend as daytime heating sparks seabreeze showers. These probably will be a bit more likely for areas along and south of Interstate 10. But for the most part, it’s just going to be sunshine and heat. We may also see some haze, as a plume of Saharan dust pushes into the area over the weekend.

Next week

To be honest, next week doesn’t look much different from this week, weather-wise. We’ll continue to be very hot, but not extremely so for Houston in the summertime.

In brief: Houston is fairly well locked into a summertime pattern for the foreseeable future, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. The only real question each day is the extent to which we see some afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop. Overall chances are low each day, in the 10 to 30 percent range, but that’s better than nothing. Wednesday afternoon may be interesting.

Tuesday

We have reached the point of summer in Houston where not much changes. High pressure has developed over much of the southern United States, and for us that means mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures. However, for much of the forecast period Houston will lie along the periphery of this high, so it means our rain chances each are not zero. (For example, as I write this, some spotty showers have developed near Lake Jackson in southern Brazoria County).

For today, we’ll see mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-90s for much of Houston. Some inland areas will see upper 90s. Winds will be light, generally from the south at 5 to 10 mph. We’ll see some additional showers this afternoon, but overall chances are probably only 10 to 20 percent. Low temperatures tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.

Wednesday

This will be another hot and mostly sunny day. However, some of our model guidance indicates at a bit of a disturbance may work its way southward across the region, bringing a slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon or evening. So let’s peg rain chances a little bit higher, perhaps 30 percent. We’ll see. Nights remain warm and sultry.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

Expect hot and mostly sunny weather, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s. Rain chances each day will be about 20 percent. Anything that develops is likely to do so during the afternoon hours, along the seabreeze. Skies may also appear hazy as we see an influx of Saharan dust—this would have the benefit of making for some nice sunsets.

Sunday and beyond

Rain chances improve a bit by Sunday and Monday, with perhaps a bit wider coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This is no guarantee, however, as high pressure is lurking. Mostly I just anticipate hot conditions, with highs in the upper-90s for much of the area away from the coast. July is going to do July things in Houston. My way too early forecast for the July Fourth holiday is hot and sunny, with partly clear skies for fireworks.

In brief: Houston will experience full-on summer conditions this week with hot days, mostly sunny skies, and sultry nights. To better characterize this heat, we will start using wet bulb globe temperatures more, and we explain them in today’s post.

Wet bulb globe temperatures

As we get into the heart of summer—and yes, that’s just what we’re in for during the next 80 days or so—it’s useful to talk “wet bulb globe temperatures.” Now this is a confusing name, and it’s not a simple calculation. To derive a wet bulb globe temperature, one need take three different measurements: air temperature (with a thermometer), mean radiant temperature (with a black globe thermometer), and natural wet-bulb temperature (a water-soaked thermometer). Like I said, it’s complicated.

However, interpreting a wet bulb globe temperature is easy, and we’re going to use it a lot this summer on Space City Weather. Quite simply, it is a measure of how heat affects you: it factors in temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover. It differs from the heat index, which is less precise. Using this metric is especially useful if you’re going to be outdoors, and not beneath shade. Basically, “high” temperatures are very warm, and “extreme” levels are borderline intolerable unless you’re in a swimming pool. Note that last year, during this week, we were already at “extreme” heat levels. This year we’re not quite that hot, but it’s still going to be very warm.

Monday

Our weather this week will largely be dominated by high pressure, which will lead to mostly sunny days and highs generally in the mid-90s, with some inland locations reaching the upper-90s. There is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, but a capping inversion is going to be difficult to break most days. However, I do think areas south of Interstate 10 and closer to the coast have a better chance of seeing some spotty afternoon showers along the seabreeze this week. I’d peg daily chances at 10 to 20 percent, with lesser odds for inland areas. Overnight lows will be sultry, with temperatures only briefly dropping below 80 degrees in Houston, if they do at all.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday

More of the same: Mostly sunny days, highs in the mid- to upper-90s, some isolated seabreeze showers, and warm nights. Winds will generally be from the southeast at 10 mph, with gusts up to 15 mph.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The forecast remains more or less the same for the weekend: mostly sunny and hot. I do think rain chances may bump up slightly into the 20 to 30 percent range, but I want to see how the forecast evolves for high pressure. Will it give a bit, or will it be relentless? We shall see.

Tropics

After the formation of Tropical Storm Alberto last week in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a couple other disturbances, it looks like the tropics will go into quiescent mode for awhile now. This is perfectly normal for June, which is but an appetizer for the tropical main course, which comes in August and September for Texas.