Eric Berger

In brief: The first fairly strong front of fall has arrived in Houston, and dewpoints are plummeting this morning. We’ll see a rather cold night, with lows on Thursday morning reaching the upper 40s in parts of Houston. Temperatures start to recover by the weekend, and next week looks rather warm and muggy.

Update on record highs

Houston shattered another record high temperature on Tuesday, with a mark of 98 degrees. This broke the previous record of 92 degrees for October 15, set in 2019. Again, breaking a record by six degrees is remarkable, and not in a good way. This was the third record high of the month, after the city tied a previous record back on October 6. The average temperature so far this October is running 5.0 degrees above normal.

Wednesday

Fortunately, we can put talk of record highs aside for a few days after a front blew into Houston overnight. This was a dry frontal passage so there was no rain accompanying it, and we are now seeing much drier and cooler air moving in. Temperatures this morning are generally in the mid- to upper-60s across Houston, with dewpoints around 40 degrees. Skies will be partly cloudy today, and with the influx of cooler air our highs will probably max out in the low- to mid-70s. Winds from the northeast will be brisk, maxing out at 25 mph or perhaps even a bit higher. Lows tonight will drop to around 50 degrees in central Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday

It will, dare I say, feel cold on Thursday morning? With sunny skies we should warm into the mid- to upper-70s however. This will simply be a fine, fall day. Lows on Thursday night should drop into the upper 50s for most locations except the immediate coast.

Friday

Expect mostly sunny weather and highs of around 80 degrees. Winds will be from the east at about 10 mph with higher gusts.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect partly to mostly sunny skies this weekend, with high temperatures generally in the low 80s. With the return of a southerly flow on Friday, humidity levels will be recovering. Nighttime temperatures drop only into the mid-60s.

Next week

Most of next week looks fairly warm and humid. I’d expect highs in the upper 80s, with muggy nights in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Skies will be partly to possibly even mostly cloudy, but I don’t see much of a chance of rain until at least the latter part of next week. That’s also when we might see another front, but that is far from certain.

The bottom line is that if you’re looking for fall-like weather, soak up the next few days. Because after that it’s going to feel fairly warm and muggy for awhile once again.

In brief: Houston’s high reached a remarkable 99 degrees on Monday, smashing previous records. We’ll see one more very hot day before things cool off tonight with the passage of a cool front. Some areas may see lows in the 40s by Thursday morning. The only real blemish in the forecast is that the outlook remains very, very dry in terms of rainfall.

Record high

With slightly drier air in place, Monday’s high temperature soared to 99 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. If you’re thinking this is crazy hot for mid-October, you’re not wrong. Houston’s record high for October 14 was just 92 degrees, set back in 2015. Shattering a record by 7 degrees—a record that has been set over the course of nearly 150 years of data—is definitely not normal. We’ll see another anomalously hot temperature today in the upper 90s for most of the area before a front arrives to provide some relief tonight.

Comet is visible

Our clear skies continue to afford a view of Comet C/2023 A3 Tsuchinshan-ATLAS in the evening sky. It’s rather faint to the naked eye, but it can be easily seen with binoculars or a longer-exposure photograph. To find it, you should look to the western horizon within about an hour of sunset. The comet will have a fuzzy tail. You’ll need a clear view of the horizon and preferably be looking toward at least somewhat dark skies. Jake Miller, a reader from Fannett, a town between Houston and Beaumont, captured this photo last night.

Tuesday

With high pressure and a warm southerly flow, highs will again skyrocket into the mid- to upper-90s today, certainly breaking the record high of 92 degrees set in 2019. Skies will be sunny, with moderate humidity levels. By around midnight, or shortly after, we’ll start to see a pronounced wind from the northeast heralding the arrival of much drier air. Unfortunately, there will be no rain with this front. Lows tonight will drop to around 60 degrees.

Wednesday

This day will feel much different, with low humidity, sunny skies, and high temperatures in the mid-70s. Winds will be from the northeast, gusting to above 20 mph. Temperatures bottom out on Wednesday night, with much of Houston dropping into the low 50s, and outlying areas into the upper 40s.

Thursday

A sunny day, with highs again likely in the 70s, and lows in the mid- to upper-50s and low-humidity. Winds continue from the northeast.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A more southerly flow returns, so expect a few clouds in the sky. However, at this time, it does not look like we’ll see much in the way of rain chances, perhaps 10 percent each day. Highs will generally be in the lower 80s this weekend, with nights falling into the low 60s. If you have outdoor plans, you should have no concerns.

Next week

Most of next week is likely to see highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s, and partly sunny days. I’d love to be able to point to some healthy rain chances in the coming forecast, but for now I just don’t see them.

In brief: Houston faces two days of record-setting heat before a nice front arrives on Tuesday night to usher drier and cooler air into the region for the rest of the week. Rain chances, unfortunately, continue to look fairly low. Also, if you have a clear view of the Western sky, we encourage you to look for a new comet near the horizon.

Houston likely to set record high

The region’s high temperature on Sunday was 94 degrees, which is one degree short of the city’s record high for October 13. Today we’re likely to be even a bit warmer, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s for much of the metro area. And the record high for today, set in 2015, is just 92 degrees. So we’re almost certain to set a record today. Tomorrow we are also likely to set a record, beating the mark of 92 degrees set in 2019. A cold front finally arrives on Tuesday night to bring us some much-needed relief.

Don’t miss a comet in the night sky

If you have a clear view of the western horizon, preferably with few lights (i.e. not looking directly toward downtown Houston), you should try and see a comet with an unwieldy name, C/2023 A3 Tsuchinshan-ATLAS, this week. To find it, look toward the western horizon within 45 minutes of sunset at twilight. A pair of binoculars should only enhance the view, so if you have some, bring them along. The comet will fade in the next two weeks, so right now is the best time to try and see it.

Monday and Tuesday

Heat continues for two more days. Both Monday and Tuesday will be sunny, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s for most locations away from the coast. This is brutal, August-like heat that is very much not normal for October (hence the record-setting temperatures). At least the dewpoints will be a little lower, so it won’t be incredibly sultry heat. Winds will be light, from the north and northwest, at 5 to 10 mph. Monday night will be warm, with lows in the upper 60s.

Wednesday

Drier air starts to move into the area by around midnight, and dewpoints will fall into the upper 30s area wide by Wednesday morning. It will feel noticeably drier, and daytime temperatures on Wednesday may be only on the 70s. Winds will be from the northeast, gusting up to 20 mph. Skies will remain sunny, as this is a dry front. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the 50s area-wide, except for the immediate coast.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of mostly sunny days, with high temperatures in the upper-70s to lower-80s, with nighttime temperatures in the upper-50s to lower 60s. So, pretty pleasant.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

We may start to see some clouds this weekend as a southerly flow returns. Whether that brings any meaningful rain chances is something we’ll have to wait and see, but overall the odds do not look great. Highs are likely to be in the mid-80s for much of the region, with lows in the 60s. There’s probably another front in the cards some time next week, but the details are hazy.

In brief: Houston will continue to see plenty of sunshine for the foreseeable future, with temperatures continuing on an upward trend through the holiday weekend. Next Monday will be downright hot before a front arrives to provide some relief. We also take a look at increasing drought conditions in the metro area and offer a slight hope for some relief.

Drought returns

About one year ago, after the torrid summer of 2023, 100 percent of the Houston metro area was in at least a moderate drought, and for more than 90 percent of the region we were in a severe drought, according to data from the US Drought Monitor. Those conditions were wiped away after a wetter fall and winter, leaving the region completely drought-free for much of this year. Now that’s starting to change.

After dry conditions over the last couple of months, we’re starting to see drought conditions creep back into the area. About 70 percent of Liberty County, just to the east of Harris County, has now fallen into a moderate drought, and we’re seeing similar conditions to the northwest of Houston in Brazos County. Unfortunately, there won’t be much relief over the next several days. However there is a decent signal for rainfall about seven or eight days from now. We’ll see.

Friday

Skies today will be, you guessed it, completely sunny. We’ll see high temperatures of around 90 degrees for most of the metro area, with light northeast winds. Skies will be clear tonight—but alas, we think the northern lights that were visible in parts of the Houston region on Thursday night will be gone. Lows will fall into the mid-60s for most locations, with warmer conditions along the coast.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

It will be a hot and sunny holiday weekend as high pressure builds over the area. Look for highs in the lower 90s on Saturday and Sunday, pushing up into the mid-90s by Monday. Rain chances are effectively zero. The air will be a bit muggier, but it won’t be full on Houston humid. Winds will generally be light. Lows will drop to around 70 degrees.

Next week

As we’ve been discussing, some kind of front will arrive by around Tuesday, and thereafter we should see cooler days (probably in the lower 80s at least) and nights in the 50s or lower 60s. There’s likely no precipitation with the front, but rain chances do appear to be elevated beginning Friday and running into next weekend. Whether that means daily rain chances of 30 percent or 60 percent I cannot say. But since we’ve been so dry, it represents our best rain chances in quite some time.

Have a wonderful holiday weekend, everyone. We’ll see you on Monday.