Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the scattered showers moving through parts of Houston today, and a warm-up in temperatures before a short-lived front on Thursday night. Beginning Saturday we will see a period of much warmer-than-usual temperatures that will persist through the Christmas holiday.

Christmas Day, about a week away

We are now eight days away from the Christmas holiday, and although that lies at the edge of what we would normally consider forecastable, we are pretty confident about the outlook for Christmas Day this year in Houston. Beginning this weekend a rather warm pattern is going to settle over Texas (and much of the southern United States) and this will persist through much of next week.

Therefore the most likely outcome for Christmas in Houston is a partly to mostly sunny day, with high temperatures in the upper 70s. We cannot entirely rule out rain chances at this point, but they look to be low. The air will feel fairly humid. Bottom line: Christmas this year is going to be much warmer than normal, although at this point I think we’ll fall just below record high temperatures for late December.

Wednesday

A fairly weak storm system has traversing the region this morning. It will bring scattered showers today, mostly but not exclusively to coastal areas. Overall accumulations don’t look to impressive, but we might see a few brief bursts of moderately strong showers. I expect the rains to clear out this afternoon, or the evening by the latest. Otherwise we should have a mostly cloudy day with highs in the upper 60s. Winds will be light, generally from the east. Lows tonight will only fall into the low 60s, and given the fairly high dewpoints we probably can expect to see some patchy fog develop.

Thursday

Skies should become sunny as the day progresses, and this will allow high temperatures to push into the mid- to upper-70s. A cold front will approach from the northwest by Thursday evening, but I don’t think there will be much in the way of showers, if any, with its passage. Winds will shift to come from the north, and be a bit gusty overnight as drier air moves in. Lows on Friday morning will likely drop into the upper 40s.

Friday

This will be our last “chilly” day for awhile. Expect highs in the low- to mid-60s with sunny skies and northerly winds. This brief incursion of winter-like weather won’t last long, however, as winds will already turn southeasterly by Friday afternoon or evening. Lows on Friday night should drop into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see partly to mostly sunny weather, with highs ranging from the mid-70s to about 80 degrees (Sunday looks especially warm). Overnight lows will be warm for December, in the mid-60s. The air will feel fairly humid, overall. On Saturday, as the southerly flow really gets going we could see some winds gusts up to 25 mph.

Next week

As noted above, there won’t be much variance in our weather next week, with highs generally in the range of the upper 70s to 80 degrees, partly sunny skies, and warm nights. Rain chances, overall, appear to be fairly low. Will this pattern break? Yes it will, eventually. Right now our best models are indicating that our conditions could turn cooler some time around 10 days from now, in the period of December 27 or December 28. That really is at the edge of predictability, so it is not a forecast I would feel highly confident in at this time. But hopeful? Certainly.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the city’s first freeze in 10 months, and how our region narrowly missed out on an Arctic blast. Our attention then turns to the potential for some light showers on Wednesday, and another brief incursion of cooler air Friday before a warm run-up to Christmas Day.

City officially records a brief freeze

It took most of the night, but according to unofficial data this morning, the thermometer at Bush Intercontinental Airport reached 32 degrees at 6:10 am CT Monday. This is the city’s first freeze since February 20. If we look at average freeze dates, since the official monitoring station was moved to Bush airport in 1969, the average date of the first freeze is December 4. So we are a little late this year, but not too late.

Not all of Houston fell below freezing this morning. Much of the city’s urban core along and south of I-10, as expected, appears to have remained just above freezing this morning. Galveston Island, as of sunrise, is a balmy 36 degrees. This is the peak of the cold for now, and probably will end up being our coldest day this December.

This front was part of fairly strong Arctic outbreak, but in the end this colder air was driven down into the United States and shoved east and southeast, rather than continuing all the way down into Texas. Accordingly we are seeing low 20s in southern Mississippi, Georgia, and the Carolinas this morning rather than Texas. That could easily have been us. This is plenty cold for me.

Monday

Although air temperatures are very chilly this morning, at least winds have fallen off. They will remain more or less light today and tonight, although they will subtly shift to come from the east. We will see mostly sunny skies today, with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Lows tonight should be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than Sunday night, so we do not anticipate another freeze in the region.

Tuesday

After a chilly start this will be a mostly cloudy day, with highs in the mid-60s. Southeasterly winds will herald the arrival of a more robust onshore flow. Lows on Tuesday night will only drop into the 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of warmer, and more humid days. Wednesday should have a few more clouds, and potentially some light showers (expect accumulations of less than one-quarter inch, for most), and this could help limit highs in the mid-70s. Thursday will have a little more sunshine, I think, and this may allow temperatures to push upwards of 80 degrees. At some point on Thursday night a cool front will push through, so we probably will wake up to chillier conditions on Friday morning. It should be a dry passage.

Friday

This will be a short-lived front, but it will make things feel seasonal on Friday. I’d expect morning lows in the vicinity of 50 degrees, followed by a sunny day in the 60s. Lows on Friday night should, once again, drop to around 50 degrees. This will likely be our final visitation of winter-like weather until after the Christmas holiday.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

After this the most likely scenario is about a week of warm and (for December) fairly humid weather. We are talking about highs in the 70s (possibly pushing 80 some days) and lows in the 60s. Skies will be partly cloudy with the occasional odd chance at some light rain showers. It is not completely out of the question that we see some sort of front during the run-up to Christmas, but at this point I would not put chances above 10 percent. So yeah, by far the most likely outcome for Christmas Day is highs in the upper 70s, with the potential for a foggy start. There is some evidence of a pattern change prior to the start of the new year, but that is far enough into the future such that I have low confidence in the forecast.

In brief: We’re interrupting your weekend because our confidence is increasing that a front arriving on Sunday morning will bring sharply colder temperatures on Sunday night into Monday morning. It now appears likely that much of the region will fall near to freezing, or a few degrees below.

The vast majority of the Houston region has yet to experience a freeze this season—the lowest temperature so far at Bush Intercontinental Airport has been 37 degrees—but that could change on Monday morning. For several days now it has been clear that a short-lived, but impactful front will push into Houston on Sunday. Now that we are closer to the front, however, we are beginning to get high-resolution data that continues to trend colder. It is clear that much of Houston, even within the urban core of the city, could see a light freeze for a couple of hours on Monday morning.

This is not the kind of freeze that is likely to knock power offline, or freeze pipes. We just are not going to get that cold, for that long. But this will be the first freeze of the season for much of the greater Houston metro area, and that means care should be taken for sensitive plants, and of course you should think about your pets.

We still don’t have great confidence of where the freeze line will fall, but I am reasonably confident that a majority of Montgomery and Chambers counties will freeze early on Monday morning. And I now think there is probably about a 50 percent chance that the majority of Harris County experiences a freeze. Chances are less likely for Galveston, Brazoria, and Fort Bend counties, but basically we’re not ruling anything out except for a place like, say, Galveston Island.

We will warm up into the low 50s on Monday, and Monday night should be at least a few degrees warmer. So the cold won’t last too long. And then we’re going to be quite a bit warmer for the run-up to Christmas morning.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the return of fog, and some humidity. A sharp front arrives Sunday that will bring a chance of a light freeze into Houston. After that we’re going to warm up. Will some cooler air arrive in time for Christmas? Find out in our way-too-early Christmas Day forecast.

Christmas Day forecast

Don’t worry, Christmas shoppers. You still have 13 days before the holiday. Which means it is ridiculously early to try and forecast the weather (realistically, about 10 days is the limit). Nevertheless, readers have been asking, and we aim to deliver. Just understand that you’ve been warned, and there may more coal stocked in this forecast than candy.

As we’ve been saying for a couple of days now, the run-up to Christmas Day looks rather warm. Record highs in Houston are generally in the 81 to 83 range for the last 10 days of December, and beginning next weekend (Dec. 20 or Dec. 21) we are likely going to be flirting with this range of temperatures. We are reasonably confident in this forecast because high pressure patterns are fairly straightforward to predict.

At some point the pattern will break, and we will see a more winter-like pattern emerge. In late December it is more difficult for these highs to persist in this manner. However, we just can’t say whether a front will come on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, or even later in the holiday week. For that reason I’m going to go with a forecast high of 80 degrees on Christmas, with fairly humid conditions and mostly cloudy skies. I would dearly love to be wrong about that, mind you.

Friday

Temperatures and dewpoints are basically the same this morning, in the low- to mid-50s, with calm winds. That’s a great recipe for dense fog, which is just what we’ve got. It should gradually diminish after sunrise, but it will be nuisance until then. We can expect more of this on Saturday and possibly Sunday mornings. Highs today will climb into the mid- to upper-70s today, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. With dewpoints rising into the 60s, it will feel modestly humid as well. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the 60s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will be similarly warm and humid, with highs in the upper 70s. Skies will also be partly cloudy, although some clearing is possible during the afternoon hours. There is also a chance of some light showers during the daytime, perhaps 20 or 30 percent, so keep that in mind if you have outdoor plans. Saturday night also looks fairly warm and muggy.

Sunday

Temperatures will start out in the low- to mid-60s on Sunday morning, and that is where they will peak ahead of a fairly strong cold front. It will likely arrive around sunrise in Houston, a little before north of Interstate 10, and a little later closer to the coast. We could see some light showers with the front, although I’m not expecting anything at all serious in the way of accumulations. We’ll see clearing skies during the afternoon, along with winds gusting to perhaps 25 mph. These gusts should back off a bit during the evening hours.

Temperatures will drop throughout the day, accelerating during the late afternoon and evening hours. I expect lows for most of the city, except for the immediate coast, to reach the 30s by Monday morning. As for a freeze, it’s a good question. If you live in Montgomery or Chambers County, I think there’s probably at least a 50 percent chance of a freeze on Sunday night, whereas in the city of Houston and points south and west of Houston, the odds are quite a bit lower. We’ll do a short post this weekend updating you on the expected freeze line.

Next week

Monday will be cold, in the 50s, and mostly clear. We should see another chilly night, albeit in the low 40s, as the onshore flow resumes. By Wednesday our daytime temperatures will be solidly in the 70s. There is a slight hint in some of the models of a front in the Friday time frame of next week, but it’s not something I would count on. After that we’re into the warm run-up to Christmas I spoke about above.

Have a wonderful weekend, everyone!