Eric Berger

Good morning. Sorry for the late update this morning, but sometimes life intervenes. Fortunately, the forecast remains more or less on track. The region will enter a wetter period now through Sunday, with some heavy rainfall possible on Christmas Eve ahead of a cold front. After the front moves through we should see clear and much cooler weather for Christmas Day and the holiday weekend leading up to New Year’s Eve.

One quick programming note: Given the dynamic weather possible on Sunday, expect at least one update this weekend to make sure you’re on top of the forecast.

Friday

Today should be fine for any last-minute shopping or other activities related to the holiday weekend. Yes, we could see some (mostly) light showers, but I don’t think they’ll be anything more than a nuisance. Skies will, otherwise, be gray with high temperatures reaching about 70 degrees or a tick higher. Winds will be light, from the east. Lows tonight will only drop into the low 60s, for the most part. As we saw some fog this morning, you can probably expect more of the same on Saturday morning.

Saturday

Saturday will be similar to Friday with one exception: Rain showers will be a little more widespread, with a better chance at some moderate rainfall. I still don’t expect anything too heavy, as that’s more likely to occur on Christmas Eve. Otherwise it will be another soupy day, with highs in the vicinity of 70 degrees, and a not very cool night in the low 60s.

Sunday

You’ll probably have noticed that it feels more humid outside this morning. Well, after a couple of days of an easterly breeze we’re going to see a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, and that’s a starter dough for rainfall. By Sunday we’ll add in a forcing function in the form of an advancing front. In terms of timing, I expect most of the rain to occur during the midday or early afternoon hours, as a line of storms advances from west to east across the region. Most of us should pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain, but there could be higher isolated totals that lead to some brief street flooding. Right now the overall dynamics in the atmosphere don’t favor severe weather, but I’m keeping tabs on that. Hopefully this mess will clear out by the late afternoon or evening. Lows on Sunday night will drop to around 50 degrees.

Christmas Day

The holiday should be bright and sunny, with highs of perhaps 60 degrees. Winds will be a bit gusty, from the north, perhaps at 20 to 25 mph. So that will add a bit of chill to the air. Lows on Monday night drop into the low 40s for most.

Next week

We’re looking at fairly typical winter weather, with mostly sunny skies, highs perhaps in the low 60s, and nights generally in the 30s and 40s. It will be a good time to wear those sweaters you got for Christmas. As for New Year’s Eve, it’s very early. I can’t rule out some rain showers, but there’s no particularly strong signal for that. It does look chilly, however.

Good morning. We finally have clarity on the forecast for the Christmas holiday, and the short version is that this weekend looks messy, but Christmas Day should be partly sunny, dry, and seasonal with highs in the 60s. Before that, however, we’re likely to see a wet weekend with widespread accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, and even higher isolated totals.

Thursday

Temperatures have only fallen to 60 degrees this morning, and this will probably be the ‘coldest’ we get until after the next front rolls through on Christmas Eve. This will also be the last day we can be reasonably confident that it won’t rain until Christmas Day. Skies will be mostly cloudy, however, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Winds will be out of the east at around 10 mph, with higher gusts. I can’t entirely rule out some very light showers today, but most of us should stay dry. That could change this evening, and during the overnight hours, when some light, misty rain will be a bit more likely. Lows drop to around 60 degrees again in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Friday and Saturday

These will be similar days, with highs of around 70 degrees, and decently high humidity. Both days will be cloudy with rain chances on the order of 50 to 70 percent. The overall dynamics for both days don’t favor severe weather, so we’re likely looking at some on-and-off, mostly light to moderate rain showers. If you’re going to be out and about, conditions should be fine, just know there may well be some nuisance showers.

Christmas Eve

The story is a little bit different for Sunday. As a front approaches we’re going to see atmospheric lift, which spells R-A-I-N given the ample moisture available in the atmosphere. Pretty much everyone is going to get some rain on Sunday, but the amounts will be variable, with some areas perhaps getting 0.5 to 1 inch, and others 3 to 5 inches. I think the latter totals will be fairly isolated, but the setup does favor some heavy rainfall.

Fortunately the conditions won’t be quite right for severe weather, so while there may be some thunderstorms, the odds of them turning intense—with damaging hail and winds—is fairly low. Highs on Christmas Eve will be about 70 degrees. I’m thinking we’ll see a frontal passage at some point during the evening hours, or so, with drier air moving in overnight behind the front. Once the front pushes in you can be pretty confident the rain showers are over.

Christmas Day

Depending on when the front goes through, most of us should be waking up to temperatures in the 50s, with clearing skies. Northerly winds will be gusting to about 20 mph, but it doesn’t look like one of those howling, wild blue norther fronts. Highs will be seasonable, in the mid-60s. Lows on Christmas night will drop into the 40s. So all in all, it should be a pleasant Christmas Day weather-wise. It’s just that getting there that is going to be kind of messy.

Next week

At this point it looks as though we’re going to remain in the 60s for all of next week, with cool nights in the 40s. Skies will be sunny, and winds reasonably light. If you’ve been pining for a stretch of winter, you’re in luck!

Good morning. Houston’s weather will now warm up through the weekend, with some healthy rain chances, before a cold front moves through late on Christmas Eve, or early on Christmas morning. This should bring cooler and drier weather into Houston for the holiday, and most of the week leading up to New Year’s Day.

Before jumping into the forecast I wanted to share a photo from a reader, Jaime Aguilar, who lives near spring. Jaime took this photo on Tuesday morning while out for a walk. It shows a ‘fallstreak hole,’ a fairly rare meteorological phenomenon that occurs when water in clouds suddenly freeze, and falls. This is sometimes induced by a passing airplane. I thought others might have seen this, so I wanted to explain the phenomenon.

Wednesday

Temperatures are starting out in the 50s this morning, and they’ll rise to about 70 degrees today. We’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds, as highs push up to about 70 degrees. Winds will be a bit more prominent, out of the east at 10 mph, with gusts up to about 20 mph. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 50s in Houston.

Thursday

Thursday will be a similar day, albeit with a few more clouds. Lows on Thursday night will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday night, and we may see a few scattered, light showers develop after midnight.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend will see generally cloudy skies, with a decent shot of humidity, and highs of around 70 degrees or a tick warmer. Rain showers over the weekend will be on-and-off again affairs. Sunday—Christmas Eve—should be the most dynamic day in terms of rainfall and thunderstorm potential as a front approaches the region. I don’t think things are going to get too extreme, as most of the region will likely see 1 to 3 inches of rain through the weekend, but it could be messy at times. Something to consider if you have plans for Christmas Eve.

Christmas Day

The good news is that, increasingly, it looks like the front will be pushed through Houston by Monday morning. This will reduce rain chances on the holiday to about 10 or 20 percent. I’d expect highs to reach the upper 60s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows on Monday night will likely drop into the upper 40s as cooler and drier air moves in during the daytime.

Next week

Most of next week looks fairly pleasant and winter-like. Most probably we’re looking at days in the 60s, with lows in the 40s, and partly to mostly sunny skies.

Good morning. Houston will have a couple of more sunny days before the forecast turns messy this weekend, with a fair bit of rainfall across the holiday weekend. As for the Christmas Day forecast, unfortunately that’s still a stocking stuffed full of uncertainty.

Tuesday

Today should be a fine winter’s day, with highs in the low- to mid-60s, and partly sunny skies. Our air is starting out rather dry, but with light easterly to southeasterly winds we’re going to see humidity levels start to rebound. We’re still going to see one more night on the cool side, with lows generally dropping into the upper 40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas, before milder conditions arrive for the rest of the week.

Wednesday

This will probably be the last day we see a lot of sunshine for awhile. Highs will reach about 70 degrees, with southeasterly winds that may, at times, gust up to 20 mph. Lows on Wednesday night will be a warmer, perhaps 10 degrees higher than Tuesday night.

Thursday

Skies will be clouding up on Thursday in response to increasing atmospheric moisture levels. But the overall dynamics in the atmosphere won’t favor rising air, so I don’t expect any significant rain showers yet. Look for highs of about 70 degrees, with lows on Thursday night dropping only to around 60 degrees in Houston. Some rain chances may start to creep in on Thursday night, we’ll see.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Conditions turn unsettled for the weekend. We’re confident that highs will be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, lows around 60, and skies will be mostly cloudy. At this point it looks like there will be a healthy chance of rain each day, perhaps 60 to 70 percent. It’s not going to rain continuously, but there should be some on-again, off-again type showers, with perhaps a few thunderstorms. (The overall setup does not particularly favor severe weather, however). Overall rain accumulations during this period are likely to be 1 to 3 inches.

Christmas Day

I don’t know!

Like, I’m really sorry. But the models (and humble forecasters) are still struggling with the timing of a Pacific cold front. This is important because the front is likely to generate the most favorable conditions for thunderstorms. If this all passes on Sunday night, then Christmas Day could see clearing and cooler weather. But there is absolutely no consensus for this right now, and we could very well end up with a fairly messy Christmas Day with some showers. Temperatures and humidity, too, are going to be dependent on the front. This is all pretty worthless, I know. It’s like Space City Weather is giving you a fruit cake for the holidays this year.

Next week

At some point next week—Monday morning, Monday night?, Tuesday?—the front will be well and truly passed, and our weather should cool down and settle down. We’re likely talking mostly sunny days, highs in the upper 50s or 60s, and lows in the 40s. This cooler pattern is likely to hold out for the remainder of 2023.

Holiday travel

We realize that not everyone is going to hang around Houston for the holidays. With that in mind, Matt has written a US travel guide over on The Eyewall. Of note are the potential for flooding in California this week, and storms in the Rockies, Plains, and Mississippi Valley on Christmas Eve.