Eric Berger

Good morning. One byproduct of the heat and lack of rain this summer has been increasingly dry grasslands, and accordingly we’ve started to see the outbreak of wildfires. For example, on Wednesday, the Texas A&M Forest Service worked hard to contain the 215-acre “Snowhill Fire” in San Jacinto county, to the north of the Houston area. Fire conditions will persist for at least the next several days with the ongoing heat and could be exacerbated by winds a little bit higher than the region has has seen of late.

The model output below from the Forest Service highlights areas where fuel on the ground, particularly grasses, is susceptible to burning.

Thursday

As for the weather forecast, well, do you need to ask? High pressure continues to dominate our weather and we will see highs of around 100 degrees today with perhaps a 10 percent chance of rain. Skies will be mostly sunny, with lows near 80 degrees. Winds will be light, generally from the southeast, at 5 to 10 mph. Basically, this is unchanged from what we’ve been experiencing.

Friday

More of the same.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure starts to slowly slide westward, temperatures may come down slightly this weekend. We’re talking highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees for most of the area, instead of highs around 100 degrees. So, probably not noticeable. Rain chances both days are on the order of 10 percent with mostly sunny skies.

Next week

The forecast for next week still calls for hot weather. But there’s still the potential for some slightly better rain chances by Wednesday or so as high pressure weakens a bit. The question is whether it will weaken enough, and I don’t think we can say that yet. Looking further into my crystal ball, I think there may be some hope for this overall pattern to change slightly, and for the better, by mid-August or so. But again, we’ll need at least a few more days before that’s something to feel confident in.

Good morning. The overall forecast, unfortunately, remains largely the same. A stultifying ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the Southern United States, and it will bring us very hot, and largely rain-free weather for at least the next week or ten days. The only real question is whether it backs off to the west just enough next week to allow for a modest increase in rain chances. That is possible, although not certain. In the mean time, we will remain in a pattern of extreme heat, based on “wet bulb globe temperatures,” through the weekend.

Wednesday

Yesterday a small area near Spring Valley, just to the west of central Houston, receiving a bullseye of rainfall. A few neighborhoods saw as much as one-half inch of rainfall. So it will go again today, with perhaps a 10 percent chance of rainfall while the rest of us see hot and sunny weather, with highs of around 100 degrees give or take. Winds will be light, out of the south at around 10 mph. Lows tonight remain persistently warm, only dropping to around 80 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

The pattern really doesn’t change much during the second half of the week, with high heat, sunny skies, and just a very slight chance of rainfall. Please continue to take heat precautions.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will not see much (if any) relief from the heat, although humidity levels may slacken just slightly. As high pressure slowly slides west, rain chances by Sunday may bump up slightly, to about 20 percent. We’ll see.

Next week

Truth be told, I don’t envision much change as we get deeper into August next week. The only potential ray of hope is that daily rain chances will inch upward, from 10 percent this week to perhaps 30 percent next week. My goodness, our yards could certainly use the break.

Good morning. Three of the region’s climate sites tied or broke high temperatures records on Monday:

• College Station: 106° (tying previous record, 1893)
• City of Houston: 103° (tying previous record, 1998)
• Hobby Airport: 102° (breaking previous record, 101°, 1948)

Unfortunately, we can expect more extreme heat today with a high pressure system anchored solidly over the southern United States, and exerting its influence over Texas. Very high heat will, unfortunately, persist through the weekend and into next week. There are signs of subtle changes in our forecast, but the relentless heat we’ve seen since June is likely to relent onward for awhile.

Tuesday

Like Monday, this will be another very warm day, with highs likely exceeding 100 degrees across much of the region. A weak disturbance is going to try and make its way through the mid-levels of the atmosphere later this afternoon, and in concert with daytime heating may produce some isolated showers. It will have its work cut out with all the sinking air, so I’d peg rain chances at only about 10 percent this afternoon and early evening. So yeah—probably not. But maybe. Winds will be light, out of the southwest.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

More of the same, which is to say hot, sunny, and humid. Look for high temperature of 100 degrees for much of the area away from the coast. You know the drill.

Saturday and Sunday

By this weekend the aforementioned high pressure system will start easing to the west a bit. This may eventually provide a slight amount of relief, but it’s going to be slow in coming. So we can probably expect highs in the vicinity of 100 degrees again this weekend, with perhaps a 10 percent chance of rain on Saturday, increasing to 20 percent on Sunday

Next week

Houston’s torrid summer continues next week, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Rain chances may tick up a bit, but at this point I don’t think we’re looking at anything higher than 20 or 30 percent daily odds. I know this is brutal to read, and believe me, it’s difficult to write.

Yes, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

Unfortunately, that light is the Sun. And it’s going to be blazing hot and bright for the foreseeable future.

Sadly, if you are coming to this morning’s post looking for hope about Houston’s forecast, I can only offer a few crumbs. First of all, after this week, I think conditions may return to slightly more normal-ish weather for August. If that sounds hopeful, well, just remember that August in Houston is already pretty miserable. On the rain front we’re still looking at 5 to 10 percent daily chances this week, but by next week our daily rain chances may well jump up to about 30 percent a day, again a pattern more typical of high summer in Houston. Finally, our days are getting shorter. We have lost about 30 minutes of daylight since the summer solstice in late June, and that trend will accelerate in August. Houston is probably about six weeks away from having any expectation of the season’s first front. So some relief is coming—eventually.

Monday and Tuesday

The story of our weather this week, however, is going to sound very similar. We’re under a potent ridge of high pressure that will consistently push high temperatures for areas inland of Interstate 10 to 100 degrees or higher this week. Monday and Tuesday look to bring the hottest weather, with afternoon temperatures and humidity combining to push heat conditions into the “extreme” level based on wet bulb globe temperatures, which factor in raw temperatures, dewpoints, wind, and other factors to provide a sense of heating. Those winds, by the way, will be light, at just 5 to 10 mph from the southwest.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Big-time heat continues this week, with highs of around 100 degrees, and lows around 80 degrees, and plenty of humidity. Rain chances, as mentioned in the post’s introduction, will be on the order of 5 to 10 percent.

Saturday and Sunday

Toward the end of this week the high pressure system will slowly start to retreat westward, and that will have some subtle effects on our weather this weekend. First of all, temperatures may come down a degree or two. Still very hot, but not excessively so. And perhaps we will see some more clouds, with rain chances rising to about 20 percent each day. Let’s not kid ourselves, though. For the most part these look to be very hot and sunny days.

Next week

I’m going to ballpark highs next week in the upper 90s, with a daily 30 percent chance of rain, give or take. So again, the takeaway this morning is that this week looks extremely hot; next week a bit less so, and I would urge you to hang in there. This can’t last forever. And it won’t. Even if it seems like it will.