Eric Berger

In brief: The much-discussed Arctic front is on schedule for this afternoon, bringing freezing temperatures to the Houston area after midnight tonight. This post discusses how cold we’re going to get, and whether precipitation on Thursday will just be rain, or something else.

Cold coming

The first few days of the new year have been relatively mild, with high temperatures in 60s and 70s. That will change in a big way later today, with the strongest front of the winter season on track to arrive in the Houston area this afternoon. This front will usher in a freeze to inland areas, including locations such as Katy and The Woodlands, by around midnight. Temperatures should reach freezing for all but areas immediately along the coast by Monday morning. Colder than normal weather will stick around for the remainder of the week.

Frontal passage

Some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will accompany the front’s passage today as it moves from northwest to southeast across Houston. At present I expect it to reach northwest Harris County by around 2 to 4 pm, and swoop down to the coast by around sunrise. There is a slight chance of some severe weather with the front, especially to the northeast of Houston, in the form of stronger thunderstorms. But mostly, everyone will notice the winds kicking up, and drier air moving in. Temperatures fall pretty quickly behind the front.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday

This will be the coldest period, with daytime high temperatures in the 40s. Each night will bring freezing, or near-freezing temperatures throughout Houston. It’s possible that the urban heat island effect could keep some parts central Houston at or just above freezing. But the bottom line is that if you have tender plants, and do not live right on the coast, they are susceptible to freezing.

However, most of the Houston metro area will not face a hard freeze. That is when air temperatures fall into the mid-20s or below, at which point one needs to worry about pipes. So from an infrastructure standpoint, I’m not too concerned about this freeze. A hard freeze is possible for areas along and north of Highway 105.

A wintry mix on Wednesday night?

There is still some uncertainty about conditions on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A low-pressure system is likely to being a healthy chance of rain into the forecast late Wednesday night and into Thursday. Overall we may see as much as 1 inch of rainfall. The question is whether temperatures are cold enough on Thursday morning to support a wintry mix, be it snow, sleet, freezing rain, or what have you. Another factor is when the precipitation starts, as by mid-morning temperatures should be comfortably above freezing.

My sense is that most of Houston probably will just see rain, but that areas inland of Interstate 10 have a chance of seeing snow or sleet. I think it’s a low chance at this point, maybe 10 or 20 percent. But it’s something we’ll keep an eye on considering the potential for mischief with transportation on Thursday morning.

In brief: Houston will experience milder conditions until a robust front arrives on Sunday, with the possibility of some severe weather to the northeast of the city as it passes. Afterward we’ll see blustery conditions, with the likelihood of light freezes and, by Wednesday night or so, even the potential for some sleet or snow.

Friday

There’s some light drizzle at a few locations around Houston this morning, but this should soon clear out. We’ll be left with a partly to mostly cloudy day, and high temperatures in the upper 60s or so. Winds will be light from the northwest and temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 50s.

Saturday

A similar day to Friday, albeit a little bit more humid, perhaps a little more sunshine, and a little warmer. Expect highs in the mid-70s. Saturday night will be quite a bit warmer, with lows only dropping into the mid-60s. If you are looking for a mild evening outdoors, this is it.

Sunday

Sunday will start out warm, and high temperatures will likely reach the lower- to possibly mid-70s before a front comes sweeping down from the northwest. The timing remains a bit uncertain, but this is likely to occur during the afternoon hours. It looks as though a line of broken showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front’s passage, with the greater likelihood of rain, and possibly severe winds, to the north and east of Houston.

Temperatures will drop rapidly behind the front, as brisk northwesterly winds bring in much drier and cooler air. By early Monday morning much of the region will experience a light freeze, with temperatures dropping into the 30 to 35 degree range for most of the metro area.

Monday and Tuesday

This period will bring us our coldest weather of the season, to date. Look for high temperatures in the 40s, with sunny skies. The clear skies will allow for ideal cooling overnight, with temperatures dropping to around 30 degrees in Houston, give or take. We still don’t have a concrete handle on how cold things will get, but I continue to lean toward a “light” freeze rather than a “hard” freeze. This will be less impactful on our infrastructure, but please do keep pets and plants protected during this cold spell.

Wednesday and Thursday

Temperatures remain cold during the latter half of the week, and we’ll need to keep our eyes on a coastal low pressure system that could bring some decent precipitation chances, especially on Wednesday night and Thursday. Depending on whether this system delivers, and how cold temperatures get, we could see some sort of sleet, snow, or other wintry precipitation on Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Saying precisely what, or how much, is impossible this far out. The bottom line is that if you have plans for Thursday they could be a little messy. We’ll see.

Later next week

Temperatures begin to moderate somewhat heading into next weekend, although we still look cool for this time of year, with highs in the 50s and lows perhaps in the upper 30s, give or take. Winter, for the next week at least, is going to feel like winter around here.

In brief: So far this winter in Houston has been abnormally warm, with December feeling more like late fall than winter. But that’s about to change as an Arctic front arrives in Houston on Sunday, bringing much colder air into the region. However, it’s looking more like the metro area will see a light freeze rather than a hard freeze next week.

Winter so far

There are several definitions of winter, but from a climate standpoint in Houston the three coldest months are December, January, and February. By this definition this winter has, to date, been incredibly warm. December had an average monthly temperature of 61.1 degrees in the city, which is 5.7 degrees above normal. So far the city of Houston has yet to record a freeze at its official monitoring station, at Bush Intercontinental Airport. The lowest temperature so far has been 35 degrees.

Beginning Sunday or Sunday night we will shift into a colder pattern that will stick around. Although there are still some details to be worked out, much of the Houston area is likely to see a light freeze next week. The good news is that, for now at least, most of our modeling guidance has backed off the idea of a hard freeze in Houston. So we are probably not looking at a situation where most of the area falls into the low- or mid-20s. But we will continue to keep an eye on this.

Thursday

Lows this morning have fallen to about 50 degrees, and with a light easterly wind we’re seeing the development of some clouds. Skies will be mostly cloudy for much of today and tonight, with highs likely only reaching the lower 60s. A few isolated showers will be possible today, but I expect most of us will not see any rainfall. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-50s.

Friday

As winds shift to come from the northeast we should see clearer skies on Friday, with highs in the upper 60s to possibly lower 70s. Lows on Friday night will fall into the mid-50s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be mild ahead of a front on Sunday. Skies on Saturday should be partly to mostly cloudy, with highs around 70 degrees, and a warm night with lows only dropping to around 60 in Houston. Sunday will be warmer, in the mid-70s. The front should reach Houston some time during the afternoon hours, possibly with a broken line of showers or thunderstorms (nothing serious, probably), followed by much drier and colder air. This is a slap-you-in-the-face kind of front with gusty winds coming from the northwest almost immediately. Temperatures will likely fall into the upper 30s by Monday morning.

Next week

The colder weather will stick around for much of next week, although Tuesday and Wednesday mornings now look to probably be the coldest of the period. For much of Houston that probably means a light freeze, with temperatures in the vicinity of 30 degrees. We could be colder than that, or a bit warmer, as it remains to be seen. Highs are likely to be in the 40s for a few days. There’s a possibility of a wintry mix on Wednesday, Wednesday night, or Thursday morning, but this will depend on whether there’s enough moisture for precipitation, and how cold things get. It’s just not possible to say at this time. Next weekend will probably be a little warmer, but still chilly.

In brief: If you’re celebrating New Year’s Eve tonight, you’ll want a sweater or at least a light jacket as conditions will turn chillier after sunset. With a couple of exceptions, the first few days of the new year will be mild in Houston. But we’re still watching for an incursion of Arctic air about a week from now.

New Year’s Eve hope

It’s been a year, Houston! As I write this on Tuesday morning, the horizon is in that liminal state between twilight and morning, with an orange-ish hue in the southeastern sky, and a fading gray to the northwest. This is my favorite part of the day, so full of potential and promise. Who knows what it will bring?

And so it goes with the new year. In reality, New Year’s Day is just part of an arbitrary calendar imposed on nature. Nevertheless, the end of the year offers us time to reflect on what has gone past, and what is yet to come with the turning of the page. In some ways, this past year was a great year. In other ways, with Hurricane Beryl, the derecho in May, and the torrid summer, it was not a great year. I do not know what this coming year will bring weather-wise (ok, I’m pretty sure there will be plenty of humidity), but I do know that there are some things in life I can control. And that starts with being the best father, husband, and forecaster I can be. And so on this gorgeous morning, the final one of the year 2024, I am hopeful.

New Year’s Eve weather

The final day of this year will be unlike much of what has come before it: chilly and dry. High temperatures today will reach the mid- to upper-60s for many locations, it is true, with sunny skies. But there will be a decent northerly breeze all day, gusting up to 20 mph. And as the Sun sinks toward the horizon this afternoon and evening, the temperatures will drop. It will be about 50 degrees at midnight tonight in Houston, but with the breeze it will feel cooler. Skies will be clear to ring in the new year. Lows by Wednesday morning will reach the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas, and somewhat warmer conditions right along the coast.

New Year’s Day

Expect a fine, sunny day with highs in the low-60s. Some clouds will start to build on Wednesday night as winds turn more easterly. Lows will reach about 50 degrees.

Thursday

Skies will turn mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-60s. Some light rain, perhaps in the form of mist or light showers, will be possible on Thursday or Thursday night. But I don’t expect this to be impactful at all. Lows will again drop to around 50 degrees as a weak front moves in.

Friday and Saturday

This part of the weekend looks to be mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-60s and lows in the 40s on Friday night, and a bit warmer on Saturday night. We have no weather concerns these days.

Sunday and Monday

Sunday will be warmer, and partly sunny with highs likely in the low- to mid-70s. At some point, perhaps on Sunday evening, Sunday night, or early Monday, a stronger cold front is likely to push into the area. This could also bring a decent chance of rain, although accumulations look fairly slight.

How cold will things get?

Next week still looks quite a bit colder in Houston, with low temperatures in the 30s beginning on Tuesday or Wednesday morning. Whether we see a freeze during the first half of next week in Houston, I’m not sure. It still looks like a secondary push of Arctic air will bring some colder nights by Friday or Saturday of next week. Much of the area probably will freeze at that point. But will it be a light freeze, or will temperatures drop into the 20s? We just cannot say. Also there continues to be a low-end chance for some wintry precipitation, including the possibility of some snow, next Thursday or Friday. But at this distance our confidence in a specific forecast is very, very low.

No post tomorrow

In celebration of New Year’s Day there will be no post on New Year’s Day. Fortunately, the weather for the rest of this week looks pretty calm.