Eric Berger

Good morning. Today is Juneteenth, a relatively new federal holiday that has its origins in Texas. Juneteenth is celebrated on the anniversary of Major General Gordon Granger arriving in Galveston and proclaiming freedom for enslaved people in Texas on June 19, 1865. This came two and a half years after the Emancipation Proclamation was issued.

Unfortunately, we will not have freedom from extreme heat today. Some very moderate relief will arrive later this week, as well as a slight chance for our first showers and thunderstorms in awhile. But it will probably be fleeting.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday

For the first two or three days this week we are going to see conditions very much like what the region experienced over the weekend. That is to say, high temperatures of about 100 to the low-100 degrees with high humidity, leading to an extremely elevated heat index. An excessive heat warning is in effect for now through Tuesday, and we can probably expect that to continue through Wednesday. Please continue to take heat safety precautions when outdoors during the middle of the day.

Thursday and Friday

Sometime on Wednesday, the high pressure system that has dominated our weather for several days will begin retreating slightly to the west, allowing for a cloudier and slightly cooler period. The relief will be modest, with high temperatures likely in the mid- to upper-90s, but it should bring down the dangerous heat index for a few days. Some weak disturbances will also drive rain chances into the area for a couple of days. Do not expect much—most areas probably have a 10 to 30 percent chance of rain—but this is better than what we’ve seen for a week now.

Next weekend and beyond

The medium-term looks pretty hot, I’m afraid. At this point the most likely scenario is that the high pressure system starts to rebuild over Texas, including the Houston metro area. So we probably will see the return of triple digit temperatures, sultry humidity, and heat warnings. I wish it were otherwise.

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics are unusually frisky for this time of year, and we can probably expect the formation of Tropical Storm Bret within the next day or two. The storm, and an additional wave behind it, likely are of no consequence to Texas or the Gulf of Mexico. For full coverage of all things tropics, be sure and check out our new Atlantic hurricanes website, The Eyewall.

Good morning. The story of the day, the story of the week, and the story for the second half of June is going to be our region’s dangerous heat. The National Weather Service has expanded the “heat advisory” to cover the entire Southeast Texas region, including all of the Houston metro area. With temperatures around 100 degrees, and the heat index pushing 110 degrees due to high humidity, it is strongly advisable to limit activities outdoors during the middle of the day.

It’s Houston. It’s humid. It’s Houmidity. Perhaps that’s not a slogan the Greater Houston Convention and Visitors Bureau is going to start using, but it does have the benefit of being accurate.

If you’re looking for something a little bit different this morning, over at The Eyewall, Matt authored a feature report about hurricane activity and the Gulf of Mexico. We’ve seen a spate of major storms in the last six years, particularly with rapidly intensifying and extremely damaging hurricanes. Matt dives into the latest research and speaks with hurricane scientists about whether this is really a trend, and what it means for coastal residents.

Thursday

What is there to say? High pressure is dominating our weather, and this will mean mostly sunny skies, highs near 100 degrees, and southerly winds varying from 5 mph to 15 mph. Nighttime temperatures will offer little reprieve, with lows dropping only to around 80 humid degrees. If you live near the coast, daytime highs will be slightly lower, but the humidity slightly higher. Pick your poison, H-town.

Friday

More of the same.

Saturday and Sunday

The heat peaks this weekend, with much of the area hitting 100 degrees. Expect lots of sunshine. Rain chances remain below 10 percent, daily. Find some water to cool down in if you’re going to be outside.

Next week

The first half of next week should bring still more of the same, although there is some suggestion in the models that the ridge will weaken or flatten later next week, and begin to offer some relief. We’re not talking much here, but highs could start to fall back into the mid- to upper-90s. Rain chances by Friday or so may start to tick back up into the 20 to 40 percent range. But that’s eight days out, and I don’t have confidence in the ridge of high pressure breaking down until the models start to definitively show it. In other words, abandon all hope, ye who enter here.

Just what is happening around here? I take off a few days for a family reunion in a cooler climate, and return to sultry, face-melting summer heat and a forecast that includes 100-degree temperatures. I absolutely blame Matt for this and let me tell you, I’ll be writing a stern letter to the managing editor.

Alas, it’s only going to get hotter. And there remains no real confidence in when an end-date might be in sight. It high pressure domes for as far as the eye can see.

Wednesday

Temperatures remained confined to the mid-90s on Monday and Tuesday in most of Houston, but today we’re going to begin taking another step up. The central and western parts of the metro area will see highs in the mid- to upper-90s, and combined with the high humidity, this will bring dangerous heat to the area. The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for the time period from 1 pm to 7 pm CT today for all but the eastern part of our region. Winds will generally be light, at 5 to 10 mph, with slightly higher gusts. Lows tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees.

Thursday

Temperatures will pretty much be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees for the entire area, with the exception of the immediate coast. And if you’ve lived in Houston for more than 10 minutes, you probably don’t need to ask about the humidity.

Friday through Tuesday

We’re highly confident that these will be sunny and hot days, with most of the area reaching triple digits. This extreme heat will be driven by a high pressure system that will lead to sinking air, clear skies, and ideal conditions for daytime heating. Please take precautions with outdoor activities during the afternoon and early evening hours. Rain chances look to be 10 percent, or lower, each day.

Next Wednesday and beyond

The truth is, there is no concrete sign that high pressure will abate during the second half of next week, so the most likely forecast is one of continued high heat and very low rain chances. Maybe some slight relief will arrive as we get toward next weekend. We’ll see.

Good morning. The overall pattern for Houston’s forecast remains the same. We’re going to have a couple of more days of fairly modest rain chances as high pressure starts to build over the area, and sends our temperatures upward. And the Houston region is still looking its first sustained period of hot temperatures beginning this weekend, and lasting through at least much of next week.

Wednesday

High pressure doesn’t have our region in a firm grip yet, so we’re going to see more moderate weather today, with highs of around 90 degrees and mostly sunny skies. The atmosphere is just disturbed enough that we could see some showers and thunderstorms break out during the afternoon hours with daytime heating. However, these storms should be more scattered than what has come earlier this week. I would peg daily rain chances at about 20 or 30 percent. Winds will be light, with lows dropping into the low 70s tonight.

Thursday

A day like Wednesday, with sunny skies and highs in the low 90s. This will probably be the final day that we really need to watch for thunderstorms to pop up during the afternoon hours, but there’s still a chance before high pressure clamps down.

Friday

Should be a mostly sunny day with highs in the low- to mid 90s.

Saturday and Sunday

This will feel more like a weekend in July or August, with sunny skies, high humidity, and high temperatures in the mid 90s. Since the Sun is now very nearly at its highest point in the year—the solstice comes on June 21—please protects your skin from 10 am to 4 pm at least.

Next week

The heat train rolls onward, and upward. Highs for much of next week should push into the upper 90s, with some inland areas recording their first century marks of the year. Rain chances look to be nil through at least the middle of next week, if not beyond. You wanted summer, Houston? You got it.