Well, this is not great news I’m afraid. On Thursday the US Drought Monitor upgraded much of the Houston area to “extreme drought” conditions, with the remainder of the region in a “severe” drought. All one needs to do is look around at the area’s brown grass, or the sagging leaves on trees, to know that it is really dry out there.
We had been holding out some hope that a tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend would provide some relief. Unfortunately, the models are now increasingly in alignment that a potent high pressure system over the central United States will push this Gulf disturbance far enough to the south that it will probably not bring widespread, meaningful rainfall to our region. This forecast, certainly, can change. But as of now I would set your expectations low.

Friday
Another very hot day for the region. Look for high temperatures in the low 100s, with ample humidity, sunny skies, and only a light southwest wind. Overnight lows will provide only a bit of relief, dropping down to around 80 degrees.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend will bring more of the same with a high pressure system dominating our weather. Look for highs in the low- to mid 100s, which is to say that some inland locations could get up to 107 or 108 degrees for an hour or two during the afternoon. Yikes. For coastal areas, there is perhaps a 10 percent chance of rain on Sunday afternoon.
Next week
Our forecast for next week remains dependent on the track of the low pressure system that will be zipping westward across the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to near the Southern Texas coast by Tuesday, most likely as a tropical disturbance, but there is about a 30 percent chance of it becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm according to the National Hurricane Center. However, I would not fret about strong winds or waves. This system will be mostly beneficial, in the sense that it will bring a decent amount of rainfall to some parts of Texas.

For now, and again this remains subject to change, the preferred location for 2 to 6 inches of rainfall is Corpus Christi and the state’s Coastal Bend. North of Matagorda Bay, rain chances start to diminish, although coastal parts of the Houston area are still likely to see some modest showers. I would peg rain chances in Houston at about 50 percent on Tuesday, and some increased cloud cover may hold high temperatures to the mid-90s. However, at this time, it does look like we are going to miss out on significant drought relief. If this forecast changes over the weekend, we’ll definitely update you.
After a brief reprieve in temperatures, we can expect highs to jump back up into the low 100s later next week, with sunny and hot conditions heading into the weekend.

Tropics
The tropics are starting to really heat up, with Hurricane Hilary setting up to bring a potentially extreme rain and flooding event to parts of the deserts and/or mountains in California and Nevada; and increased activity expected in the Atlantic to end the month of August. You can find full details about all of this on our sister site, The Eyewall. For now, beyond the disturbance mentioned above, there are no other specific threats to the Gulf of Mexico.
