Eric Berger

In brief: It decidedly did not feel like the holidays this weekend in Houston, and we’ve got a few more warm and muggy days before a front arrives to bring much more seasonal weather into the forecast. There will be plenty of drier air and chilly temperatures this coming weekend. But what of Christmas Day?

December is half over

Believe it or not, the month of December is half over. Until this weekend, the Houston region was experiencing fairly normal weather for this time of year. But highs this weekend were quite a bit above normal. In fact, Sunday morning’s low temperature of 66 degrees was a couple of degrees warmer than the typical high for mid-December. We’ll remain fairly warm and muggy until the arrival of a front on Wednesday afternoon or evening, which will bring cooler conditions through the weekend. As for the upcoming Christmas holiday forecast, I’ll make an attempt below.

Monday and Tuesday

The first two days of this week will be much the same, with high temperatures in the vicinity of the upper 70s to 80 degrees. With sticky dewpoints and light southwesterly winds, each morning will also be a candidate for fog, especially in coastal counties. Skies will be partly sunny during the daytime, with nights muggy and only dropping into the mid- to upper-60s for most locations. There will be a chance for some (mostly) light showers each day, but they will be pretty isolated. All in all, not very festive.

Wednesday

But fortunately, change is coming. Wednesday will start out much the same as the previous two days, which is to say warm and muggy. Some time, probably during the afternoon but it could be earlier or later, a front will move down from the northwest. There is likely to be a broken line of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, with the front. However, at least half of us, and perhaps more, are unlikely to see much rain. Anyway, temperatures will drop pretty quickly after the front’s passage, so you’ll notice it. Houston should reach highs in at least the mid-70s before the front cools us down. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the 40s for inland areas, and 50s for the urban core of Houston and the coast.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The second half of the week looks to be mostly sunny and significantly cooler, with dry air. Thursday and Friday should be in the 60s, with lows around 50, and Saturday and Sunday a bit cooler still as a reinforcing push arrives. Lows this weekend should drop into the 40s in Houston, with the upper 30s possible for far inland areas. The last full weekend before Christmas should feel very holiday-like!

And what lies under the tree for Christmas Day?

Only a fool would try to make a point forecast for nine days from now, but I will step forward this morning to be the sacrificial fool. It’s pretty clear that we’re going to see a warming trend by Monday and Tuesday of next week. But how warm will we get?

Right now the best ballpark guess for Christmas morning is temperatures somewhere in the 50s, with partly cloudy skies. High temperatures probably will get into the low- to mid-70s. Dewpoints don’t look crazy high, so right now I don’t expect a muggy day such as we experienced this past Sunday. By the middle of next week the pattern will be supportive of rain, but there’s no strong signal yet for any widespread rain on Christmas Day. All of this could, of course, change. But right now the outlook is for an at-least somewhat pleasant day.

In brief: It’s a very cold morning out there across Houston, but temperatures will now be on the upswing, with balmy weather expected this weekend and into early next week. We’ll also see a smattering of rain chances throughout the forecast period, but nothing too crazy. We cool down later next week.

Thursday

It’s a rather chilly morning, with most of the Houston area in the 30s. A few inland areas, including Conroe and Cleveland, have dropped to 30 degrees or below. However, this is the bottom of the temperature valley for Houston, and we’re now going to ride the rails upward to a plateau of moderate days and mild nights through at least next Monday or Tuesday.

For today, specifically, skies will be mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s. With southeasterly winds in place, we’ll start to see a more moderate flow, and lows tonight will only drop into the low- to mid-50s for much of the area. By this evening we should see at least some partly cloudy skies as moisture levels increase in the atmosphere overhead.

Friday

Expect mostly cloudy skies on Friday, with high temperatures of around 70 degrees. I can’t entirely rule out a few light showers, but for the most part I don’t expect any rain. Friday night will be warm, with lows only in the lower 60s, and a slight chance of rain.

Saturday

A cold front will drop down into Texas this weekend, but most likely it will stall north of the metro area. This will lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday, with perhaps a 50-50 chance of rain. Any showers that do develop will probably be light, so these will be a nuisance rather than seriously disruptive. Expect highs in the mid-70s. Saturday night looks warm and muggy, with lows only in the mid-60s.

Sunday

This will be a partly sunny and warmer day, with highs in the upper-70s. I’m hopeful that we’ll see some partly sunny skies, with only lower-end rain chances. In short, this is probably the better day for outdoor activities.

Next week

Monday looks warm and partly sunny, with a decent chance of rain, before a weak front arrives Monday night-ish. Tuesday and Wednesday will probably be a bit cooler before a second, and stronger push of colder air arrives later on Wednesday or early Thursday to bring seasonal weather back into Houston for December, which is to say highs in the 60s and lows near 40 degrees. It may be a little warmer or even colder than this through next weekend. We’ll see. Alas, it’s still too early to have much confidence in a Christmas Day forecast. It’s just too early and the models are bouncing all around.

In brief: Cold conditions will hold on for about 24 more hours before a more southerly flow starts to moderate Houston’s conditions. This weekend looks mild, with periods of light rain, but also some sunshine on Sunday if you want to plan outdoor activities with some confidence. Colder, winter-like weather probably returns about a week from now.

A cold start

Air temperatures in the metro area this morning are generally in the upper 30s to 40 degrees, and with the wind chill tacked on it feels several degrees colder. The bottom line is that it’s a good morning to bundle up. A few of the usual suspects, such as Cleveland, Conroe, and Navasota well north of the Houston region have dropped to 32 degrees, or just below this morning. We will experience one more cold night before the region returns to relatively balmy conditions for this time of year, with milder nights in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday

Skies are clear this morning, and will remain so all day. Winds will come consistently from the northwest today, but we won’t see the gusty conditions the region experienced on Tuesday afternoon and during the overnight hours. A few areas saw gusts of 40 mph or even higher as a second front blew in yesterday. Despite the sunshine, our high temperatures today will struggle to push beyond 60 degrees. The air will be very dry today and tonight, and temperatures should be as cold as Tuesday night, if not a few degrees colder. More areas in Montgomery county may experience a light freeze.

Thursday

Sometime after midnight, winds should turn southerly. By Thursday morning we’ll start to see dewpoints rising and this is the beginning of a more moderate pattern. Highs on Thursday should reach the mid-60s for most locations, with mostly sunny skies, and lows on Thursday night will probably only fall into the upper 50s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend forecast is still a bit uncertain, but we’re starting to have a little more confidence. Daily high temperatures will generally range from the lower- to mid-70s, with mild nights generally in the lower 60s. Skies on Friday and Saturday should be mostly cloudy, but we could see some more sunshine on Sunday. As a front approaches the area, but likely stalls out, we probably will see some light to moderate rain on Friday night and at least the first half of Saturday. Accumulations will likely total a tenth of an inch, or two, so nuisance showers mostly. Rains should come to an end on Saturday afternoon. Sunday is probably your best bet for rain-free activities.

Next week

Rain chances return on Monday ahead of another front. Although this is a weaker front, at this point it appears likely to make it down through Houston and to the coast. In addition to perhaps 0.5 to 1 inch of rain on Monday and Monday night, this should bring slightly cooler weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, we probably will see a stronger front to bring daytime temperatures into the 60s, and lows into the 40s. We shall see!

Site note

Due to scheduling issues, it is possible that Thursday morning’s post will be an hour or two late. Thanks for understanding. Do not be alarmed! If Space City Weather does not post, the Sun shall still rise.

In brief: After a warmer spell Houston will now see some of its coldest weather of the season as temperatures fall into the 30s for much of the region. But don’t get too accustomed to sweaters, as warmer weather returns for the weekend and the first half of next week. Rain chances also return later on Friday, but showers definitely look to be hit or miss this weekend.

Hot, then cold, rinse and repeat

Houston’s roller coaster weather continues, as is often the case this time of year. High temperatures kicked up to 76 degrees on Monday, our warmest day so far this month. But then a fairly strong cold front has moved in over night to bring in much drier and chillier air for the next couple of days. But by Friday temperatures will be back on the upswing again with a warmer weekend after that.

Tuesday

Depending on how far you live from the coast, temperatures this morning are either in the 50s or lower 60s. Winds are from the north-northwest. As the day goes on we’ll see some gusts up to 25 mph, and that should continue this evening. The effect will be especially pronounced for coastal areas, with the National Weather Service posting a “gale warning” for this afternoon and tonight, with seas of 7 to 10 feet and stronger winds offshore. Maybe not the best evening for a boating excursion.

As for temperatures, we’ll likely see highs today in the lower 60s. If skies aren’t clear when you’re reading this, they should soon be. A secondary push of colder air later today will help drive temperatures tonight into the 30s (for inland areas) and 40s (closer to the coast). Combined with the wind, it will be rather chilly outside. Bundle the kids up for school tomorrow morning.

Wednesday

A fine and sunny winter-like day, with highs perhaps around 60 degrees. Expect another chilly night, with temperatures likely within a degree or two of what the region saw on Tuesday night. However, winds will be decidedly less.

Thursday

Thursday should be partly to mostly sunny, but the onshore flow will be back. Look for southeasterly winds, with gusts up to perhaps 20 mph or higher. This warmer and more humid air should lead to the influx of some clouds on Thursday afternoon, and highs in the mid-60s. Lows on Thursday night will be warmer, likely in the upper 50s for most locations.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

With the departure of high pressure, the forecast for the weekend is a little more uncertain. Some weaker fronts are likely to approach the area, but it’s not clear whether they’ll stall (more likely) or push all the way into the city or down to the coast. So what does this mean? Well, I’m pretty confident in daily high temperatures in the 70 to 75 degree range, with moderate humidity. Rain chances will return later on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday morning, but overall accumulations don’t look significant. Still, it’s something to monitor if you have outdoor plans throughout the weekend. Lows each night will probably be in the upper 50s or lower 60s, but it will depend on your distance from the coast and the movement of the aforementioned fronts. In summary, the weekend looks not-too-hot, not-too-cold, with a chance for a splash of rain.

Next week

This overall not-too-warm, not-too-cold pattern with a smattering of rain chances will probably persist through about Wednesday. There is a pretty decent (although not certain) signal for a stronger front later next week, heading into the weekend. This will get us back to feeling like winter in Houston. As for the Christmas holiday, it’s still far enough on the horizon for us not to have much confidence in any forecast. But it’s probably going to be closer to Mele Kalikimaka than a Winter Wonderland. We’ll see.