Eric Berger

Good morning. We’re jumping in here with a quick post on Saturday morning as we’re getting more data about atmospheric conditions later today and tonight. Essentially, what we’re seeing is an atmosphere more conducive to thunderstorms and potentially severe weather than we expected.

To be clear this is not an all-out alert. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has the entire Houston region placed under only a “slight” chance of severe weather for today and tonight. But that is higher than we anticipated yesterday.

A warm day in the upper 80s today will help provide atmospheric heating. This may support the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms from 3 to 6 pm in the vicinity of downtown or areas north of the city. Then there may be a bit of a reprieve before a cold front moves through the area from west to east.

The primary time for concern from storms will run from 7 pm to midnight, as storms generally progress eastward across the area. The front will provide some pretty vigorous uplift and instability, but these storms will be hit or miss. Some areas will get no rain, whereas small pockets of the city or greater Houston region may pick up 2 to 4 inches of rain rather quickly. Embedded in these storms is the threat of strong thunderstorms, damaging winds, and hail. On the scale of excitable dogs—on which my two are invariably a 10 when there is lightning or fireworks—I’d call tonight a 7.5 until things settle down by or before midnight.

The bottom line is that this evening will bring the threat of severe weather to Houston, and based on our latest data we think it is prudent to be weather aware. Things may be just fine, or there may be an hour or two of bedlam. Have a good radar app available to check conditions in your area. We are still highly confident that things clear out overnight, bringing the region some drier, sunny, and most pleasant weather for Sunday and Monday.

Good morning. After a final flirtation with the 50s this morning we are going to see gradually warming temperatures through Saturday, when parts of Houston may hit 90 degrees for the first time. A front on Saturday night will put an end to that. We should see some showers and thunderstorms ahead of, and along with the front, but the overall chance of severe weather now looks fairly low. Sunny and pleasant weather will follow.

Thursday

Houston has enjoyed several days of a northeasterly flow, but all good things must end and this will too, today. As the onshore flow gets going we will see gradually rising humidity levels and temperatures through Saturday. Highs today will reach about 80 degrees with mostly sunny skies, with relatively light southerly winds this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the low-60s. Rain chances are near zero.

Friday

As the southerly flow intensifies, we’ll see stronger winds, perhaps gusting to about 20 mph. The increased moisture in the atmosphere should lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies, and this should help to limit high temperatures into the low-80s. Overnight lows won’t fall very far, likely only to around 70 degrees.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will be hot, with partly sunny skies and highs generally in the upper-80s. A few areas will probably hit 90 degrees with the warm southerly air. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday afternoon, evening, and night, but the models have backed off accumulations a fair amount. This means that overall rain chances are now about 50 percent, and totals will likely be on the order of an tenth of an inch, or two. The best chance for rain and severe weather, with the front, look to be northeast of the Houston metro area.

Sunday

Skies will clear out on Sunday morning, with breezy northerly winds. Look for highs in the upper-70s and chilly conditions overnight as lows drop into the low-50s for most of the area. Aside from some occasionally gusty winds—which should be perfect for flying a kite—this will be a fine day to be outside.

Next week

Monday should be another sunny and fine day, with highs in the upper 70s. After that a southerly flow returns to Houston, setting the stage for some rain showers on Tuesday and Wednesday, and warmer days in the mid-80s through the weekend. Overall, April will be doing April-like things.

Good morning. A low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will wobble a bit closer to the Texas coast today, bringing a chance of showers to coastal counties this afternoon and evening. Otherwise our weather looks to be fairly calm, with a warming trend heading into the weekend before a front arrives on Saturday night. This system may bring a more widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday

Winds are light this morning, out of the north, and we should continue to see a light northeasterly flow for much of the day. This should help to hold temperatures in the upper 70s despite mostly sunny skies. We should start to see the development of some scattered showers by mid-afternoon due to the Gulf low, and these will remain possible through the late evening hours. A few thunderstorms are possible. Rain chances are still only about 30 percent, with the most likely locations along and south of Interstate 10. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Thursday

This day will be a lot like Wednesday, albeit with highs a few degrees warmer, about 80 degrees. Rain chances also will be near zero as the aforementioned low drifts away. Expect one more cool-ish night in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees in Houston.

Friday

As the onshore flow resumes, Friday will be more humid with highs in the low 80s and a mix of sunshine in the morning and clouds building in during the afternoon. Overnight lows will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will be warm, likely in the mid- to upper-80s, with mostly cloudy skies. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase during the afternoon and evening hours, but again we don’t quite have enough information about the atmosphere to really say whether some strong storms will develop. So for now, the best I can say is that there is the potential for these storms ahead of the front, which will move in late Saturday night.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday and Monday should be pleasant, sunny days with drier air and high temperatures around 80 degrees. Lows should be in the upper 50s. Any outdoor activities look just fine.

By Tuesday the onshore flow will be bringing clouds and humidity back to the area, and this may combine with an atmospheric disturbance to bring a healthy chance of rain to Houston by as early as Tuesday night. Temperatures during the second half of next week look reasonably warm, in the mid-80s for the area with fairly humid air. So it goes as we get into the second half of April.

If you check a radar this morning you can see showers offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. These are associated with a low pressure system in the Gulf. If this were a few months later in the year we would be tracking this closely, but in April? Not so much of a concern. However, a few of these showers may migrate onshore into coastal counties today and Wednesday. We’re also tracking the as-yet uncertain possibility of storms on Saturday in association with a passing cold front.

Tuesday

Mostly the Gulf low will send us a drier northerly flow, as our region lies on its western edge. For today, that means a mostly cloudy morning with some clearing skies later this afternoon. Highs will reach about 75 degrees, with light northerly winds. With dewpoints in the 50s, humidity levels will be reasonably low for mid-April. As mentioned above, areas near the coast may see a passing shower due to the Gulf low. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the upper 50s.

Wednesday

This day should be rather similar to Tuesday, with highs in the mid-70s, and another chance at a passing shower for coastal areas. Lows on Wednesday night will again drop into the upper 50s.

Thursday and Friday

As the low pulls away, we’ll start to see a more southerly flow. If you’ve lived in Houston for any time period at all, you’ll well know that means warmer and more humid air. Highs will reach about 80 degrees on Thursday, and into the low- to mid-80s on Friday under partly to mostly sunny skies. By Friday night lows will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Saturday

The weekend will start out warm, with partly sunny skies and highs climbing into the mid- to upper-80s for much of the area. Far inland parts of the region may not get that warm, depending on the timing of a cold front. But wait, there’s uncertainty beyond the timing. While the atmosphere looks to be rather unstable, an important factor for storms, there may not be enough shear to really get strong thunderstorms going. We probably won’t know what is going to happen for another day or two, until we get into the realm of higher resolution models. Until then, you need to at least account for the possibility of showers, thunderstorms, and possibly severe weather on Saturday afternoon and evening in Houston. It is by no means a slam dunk, but it is certainly a possibility.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend looks drier, cooler and calmer, with highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows should drop into the mid-50s, or thereabouts. So, pretty darn nice.

Next week

The cooler air will stick around for a couple of days before we start to warm up next week. There are hints in the models about more rain in the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame next week. But at this point, who knows? Not this forecaster.