Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s update we discuss the upcoming heat for this week, which may relent slightly by the weekend. We also remain in a bear market for cool fronts, with nothing in the cards until at least the middle of next week.

Heat, with October on the horizon

We’ve had a pretty typical September, in which we still have some hot days, but also get some slightly cooler nights from time to time. This week the calendar turns to October, but the heat is continuing. Inland areas may reach the mid-90s for a couple of days (Wednesday and Thursday). How normal is this for this time of year?

Well, it’s not normal, but we also probably will not set any record highs. The highest temperature recorded in Houston on October 1 is 99 degrees (1900) and on October 2 it is 97 degrees (1938). So yes, our highs are likely to run several degrees above normal this week, but we should fall short of record heat. And this week’s soaring temperatures serve as a reminder that although fall is clearly on the horizon, we’re still dealing with the remnants of summer.

Monday

High temperatures today should remain in the lower 90s for most of the area, with a nice amount of drier air. Skies will be mostly sunny. Dewpoints should drop into the 50s this afternoon. However nighttime temperatures should be several degrees warmer, perhaps dropping only into the lower 70s, as some clouds build overhead due to a passing disturbance.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

A few clouds may linger into Tuesday morning, but for the most part these days will be sunny and hot. Central and southern parts of Houston may remain in the lower 90s, but some inland spots will probably hit the mid-90s with sunny skies and a fairly dry atmosphere allowing for efficient heating. Nighttime lows will be in the lower 70s. This probably isn’t the way most of us wanted to begin October, but here we are.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A slightly more humid flow should moderate daily high temperatures a bit, to around 90 degrees this weekend. I still expect mostly sunny skies, but we could also see some isolated to scattered sea breeze showers each afternoon. Overall, chances each day are probably about 20 percent. If you’re participating in the 2025 Komen Houston Race for the Cure I expect conditions to be fine on Saturday morning, with any showers (however unlikely) holding off until the afternoon.

Next week

I expect this pattern to mostly hold for next week, with highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees. There is some whiff of a front in the models during the second half of next week, but nothing so concrete as to have any confidence at this point. We shall see.

Atlantic tropics

We have a busy scene in the Atlantic tropics, with Hurricane Humberto briefly ascending to Category 5 hurricane status on Sunday, but fortunately no direct threat to land. Tropical Storm Imelda also formed this weekend over the Bahamas, but due to interactions with Humberto it is likely to be pulled away from the southeastern United States, out to sea. And finally it is possible that a tropical disturbance develops in the southern Gulf at some point during the next week or so, but this seems unlikely to track north toward Texas and be a significant player in our weather.

In brief: Today’s update discusses the increasingly busy Atlantic tropics, but also explains why the threat of a hurricane striking Texas this year is falling rapidly. We also detail a weak front moving into the region today, and how that will bring us fine, dry weather for awhile after this morning.

Hurricane season heats up, but what of Texas?

After a quiescent period in late August and for much of September, the Atlantic tropics have woken up. We have seen Hurricane Gabrielle blow up into a major hurricane (far from land), we have newly formed Tropical Storm Humberto (which could threaten Bermuda early next week as a large hurricane), and Invest 94L, which is likely to develop near the Bahamas during the next couple of days. The latter storm will be worth watching for the United States, from Florida up the East Coast, although there remains a lot of uncertainty. We will have comprehensive, ongoing coverage on The Eyewall.

But what of the Gulf, and Texas? It has been an exceptionally quiet season for the state in terms of direct impacts from tropical storms and hurricanes. And looking ahead over the next 10 days, although there may be some tropical mischief in the Bay of Campeche, it is difficult to see anything too organized forming and moving north into Texas. We have reached the time of year when it becomes incredibly rare—although to be clear, not impossible—for a hurricane to strike the state during the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season. Therefore we can say, with some confidence, that the 2025 hurricane season is probably over for Texas.

So what does this mean? It means that the odds of a hurricane striking the state are now less than 1-in-50 for the remainder of the year. It means that we still might see rains or moderate winds from a tropical disturbance or storm. The tropics don’t immediately shut off. But overall, the prevailing pattern will be one that steers storms away from Texas.

Thursday

Mother Nature is presently authoring a tale of two cities right now. For northern areas of our region, drier air is already filtering in, with some locations in Montgomery County enjoying dewpoints in the 60s. For areas closer to the coast, in places such as League City and Santa Fe, there are ongoing showers as the rains work their way slowly to the southeast.

Overall the pattern today will be one in which drier air slowly moves in from the north, pushing the warmer, more humid airmass and its rains offshore. As a result most of the region should see mostly sunny skies later today, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be generally light, from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 60s for much of Houston, with cooler lows further inland, and the coast remaining in the lower 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Our forecast for the weekend is one of high confidence. We will see three sunny days with high temperatures generally in the upper 80s, with nights falling into the upper 60s for most of Houston, with cooler conditions further inland and warmer ones closer to the coast. With dewpoints in the 50s and 60s the air will feel fairly dry, and mornings and evenings should feel especially fine. It’s not exactly fall like, but after a long hot summer, it’s going to feel great.

Next week

In all likelihood not much is going to change next week. We are going to see highs around 90 degrees, lows around 70, with slightly higher humidity levels by Wednesday or so. Overall rain chances, after this morning, appear to be quite low until at least next weekend.

In brief: In today’s post we recount the extraordinary humidity currently afflicting the region, and explain why it will soon end. Houston also faces the threat of storms and some heavy rainfall later this afternoon and this evening as a cool front moves into the area and eventually pushes off the coast.

Oh, the humidity

I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the humidity the last couple of nights has been extraordinary. This morning, just before sunrise, the low temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport has reached a low of just 80 degrees. This is solidly 2 degrees above the previous ‘record minimum’ temperature at the site of 78 degrees, set back in 1945. The dewpoint is 79 degrees this morning, so the air is nearly saturated, and humidity is very high. It feels like deep summer out there.

As you cans see above, the region’s minimum temperatures this morning are running 8 to 12 degrees above normal for the region. So yeah, it’s pretty yuck out there. For this reason, even though today’s front is not super strong temperature wise, it will eventually bring enough drier air to make things significantly more comfortable, and our nights and evenings quite a bit more pleasant.

Wednesday

Our radar is quiet this morning, but that is likely to change as we get later into today and this evening, and a front slowly sags down into the region. Through this morning, to the extent storms develop, they probably will do so well north of the region, along and north of Highway 105 in Montgomery County. But this afternoon we are likely to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in coastal counties, ahead of the front. By late this afternoon or evening, a line of storms will likely coalesce to the northwest of Houston and move toward the coast, reaching offshore by around midnight or in the wee hours of Thursday morning. These storms will be capable of producing 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in spots, but I think most of the area will see less than this. Nonetheless, the threat of heavy rainfall (and possibly some damaging, straight-line winds) will be present from this evening and into Thursday morning. High temperatures today will generally be in the lower 90s, with lows tonight dropping into the lower 70s.

Thursday

Some storms may linger on Thursday morning, and for the immediate coast there remains a possibility of showers into the afternoon. But for most of the region skies should be clearing as drier air slowly moves in. Expect highs in the mid-80s with northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph. Lows on Thursday night should drop into the 60s for most of the region away from the coast.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

This period should see sunny skies and modestly lower humidity. Daily highs will reach about 90 degrees, perhaps a degree or two lower or higher. Nights will be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, cooler for inland areas and slightly warmer for the coast. With dewpoints in the 60s the air will be somewhat humid, but not oppressively so. It should be a very fine weekend for outdoor activities. Enjoy!

Next week

I don’t see too much change next week, with highs remaining in the vicinity of 90 degrees and lows in the lower 70s. Humidity may creep back up a little, but I’m confident we’re not going back to the oppressive dewpoints we are experiencing this morning.

Tropics

The tropics are heating up with two storms likely to form in Atlantic Ocean near the Bahamas in the coming week. It’s a confusing forecast to puzzle out, but fortunately none of that action is likely coming into the Gulf. Stay tuned for a special announcement about the Texas hurricane season in tomorrow’s update.

In brief: Today will be hot with scattered showers, but Wednesday should be more dynamic as a line of storms pushes into the area ahead of a weak cool front. Some heavy rainfall is possible with the front, but rain totals look highly variable. After this we’ll see sunny and somewhat less humid weather.

Tuesday

It is rather warm and muggy out there, with much of the region just barely falling below 80 degrees this morning. Atmospheric conditions are trending toward better rain chances, but Wednesday still looks like the better day at this point for widespread showers. The likelihood of rain today should be about 50 percent for areas south of Interstate 10, with lesser chances inland. With dewpoints in the mid-70s it will be a very muggy day, as highs push into the lower 90s this afternoon. Rain chances fall back tonight, with lows again perhaps only briefly dropping to 80 degrees or below.

Wednesday

This should be the last really humid day for awhile. Showers will again be possible on Wednesday during the late morning and early afternoon hours, primarily near the coast. Later in the day a line of (broken?) showers and thunderstorms will advance from the northwest. The timing is fuzzy, but I generally expect these showers to hit the area during the late afternoon or early evening hours as a weak front advances into the area. There is a ‘marginal’ risk of severe weather, with the primary threat being thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Overall I expect much of the area to pick up between 0.5 and 3 inches of rainfall, but higher isolated totals are possible. Highs on Wednesday should reach the lower 90s ahead of the rain.

Thursday

Rain chances will linger into Thursday morning, especially closer to the coast, as the front slowly pushes offshore. Skies should be clearing during the afternoon hours, with high temperatures likely reaching the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be from the north at 5 to 10 mph. As modestly drier air moves in, much of the region should drop into the 60s by early Friday morning.

Friday

This should be a sunny day with highs in the upper 80s and lower humidity. Lows on Friday night should again drop into the 60s for inland areas.

Saturday and Sunday

Our modestly drier air should hold on through the weekend. With sunny skies expect daytime temperatures of about 90 degrees. Lows will fall into the 60s for inland areas, with central Houston and the coast probably dropping to around 70 degrees. It won’t be fall-like, but nights and mornings should be pleasant enough.

Next week

The drier air holds on for a few days before, I think, temperatures are likely headed back into the lower 90s for a few days. After this Thursday our rain chances appear to be quite low for awhile.

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics are heating up, and Matt has full details over at The Eyewall. The short story is that there is nothing imminent in the Gulf of Mexico and zero threats to Texas at present. We’ll have more on this tomorrow or Thursday.